Friday, December 5, 2014

Prospective Michigan HCs you've heard of (maybe) but maybe don't know much about

There are a lot of things I like about the way Michigan is going about this head coach transitional period. Interim AD Jim Hackett's presser announcing the firing of Hoke & subsequent coaching search was on the money. He respected Hoke, stated a legit reason for firing him without throwing him under the bus (he DID throw ex-AD Dave Brandon under the bus a bit, but... NOBODY likes that guy), and he gave the overall impression that this coaching search will be different.

The previous 2 searches were leaky and manically haphazard, like an old boat piloted by THESE GUYS. The 2007 coaching search lowlight (other than the hire of Rich Rodriguez, in retrospect) was the screwed up pursuit of Les Miles. It was leaked that Miles had accepted the Michigan HC job & reported on ESPN, but Michigan had either waited too long to contact Miles or else he was forced to sign an extension with LSU when the rumor was reported & Les still had 2 big games to prep for. The 2011 search was basically Harbaugh or bust, but it seemed pretty unlikely Harbaugh would join up with David Brandon. After Harbaugh moved to the NFL, Michigan reached out to a bunch of other guys who were going to say no (Gruden, Miles) and some also-rans like Hoke. They ended up with Hoke, as the Michigan Man-yest of the also-rans.

Hackett has said they're bringing in a head-hunting firm to help this time. There are a ton of benefits to this, and it's worked in the past (John Beilein was hired with a head-hunter firm as part of the process, and that seems to have worked out). The benefits of having an outside party conduct the search are a) no leaks!, b) no ulterior motives, and c) the ability to reach out to candidates who are currently employed and have games left to coach. These were MAJOR issues in the last 2 coaching searches (especially the ulterior motives thing), and Hackett going with some consultants seems like a pretty good change of method.

There are a number of names that I've heard ad nauseam connected with this job - primarily JIM HARBAUGH!!! (I've heard Harbaugh mentioned 10 times for every other name), but also John Harbaugh, Les Miles, Bob Stoops, Mike Gundy, Gary Patterson, Jimbo Fisher, David Shaw, and Dan Mullen. Harbaugh makes the most sense - big name, we know he can build a program, and he's CLEARLY got Michigan connections. The problems - he's a bit fickle, his family LOVES the Bay Area, has a love-hate relationship with Michigan, and he'll have a number of NFL teams knocking down his door if he wants to leave the 49ers. John Harbaugh is less likely to leave the Raiders, and I consider Les Miles, Bob Stoops and Mike Gundy all longshots to leave the school where they are currently employed.

Dan Mullen is probably the best option of the other 4 guys. He was Urban Meyer's OC for a number of years before taking the Mississippi State job in 2009. Miss. State is the weak sister of the SEC, but Mullen has switched that completely around. This year's team enjoyed 7 weeks ranked in the top 5 (with 4 weeks ranked #1) and finished the regular season at #10, with a 10-2 record. Big Wins: #8 LSU, #6 Texas A&M, #2 Auburn. Big Losses: #4 Alabama, #18 Ole Miss. He's got great credentials as an OC and as a developer of QBs (something Michigan used to be good at), and it's reasonable to expect he'd want to move on to a bigger program than Miss. State. He has no real Michigan connections AND has a connect with OSU HC Urban Meyer, but that shouldn't be considered a negative in this case.

Gary Patterson is the other current college HC who makes the most sense. Since his first full season at TCU in 2001, he's had 9 seasons of 10+ wins (including a 13-0 2010 season). This year's team is pretty good too, at 10-1 and ranked #4 nationally. Big Wins: #4 Oklahoma, #9 Kansas State. Big Loss: #5 Baylor. Patterson is often the subject of coaching rumors because a) he's a good coach, and b) he coaches at a small school. He was a defensive coach who made it big at a small school. This actually may be the biggest reason why he might say no to the Michigan job - he has a bit of a Napoleon Complex about coaching a small school in a big pond, and going over to Michigan would be a bit like going over to the Dark Side. TCU fans are convinced (uneasily convinced, a bit like a sweaty, frazzled dude trying REALLY hard to make a case that there's nothing to worry about) that Patterson isn't about to take that big, awesome job looming around the corner. We'll see.
 
Jimbo Fisher I'm MUCH less crazy about. Yes, he's got the best record in football over the past 3 years. He's also running a CRAZY program over there with all the Jameis Winston stuff (Jim Brandstatter would have a heart attack if that stuff went on here), and he's hardly the only guy with issues under Fisher's reign. David Shaw doesn't really do anything for me. He took over Stanford after Harbaugh left for the NFL, and he's been basically coaching Harbaugh's team until now. His first 3 seasons (all Harbaugh players) he finished with 11, 12, & 11 wins. This year is more Shaw's team than Harbaugh's, and Stanford finished 7-5. Shaw's Bowl record isn't great either at 1-2, losing to MSU and Oklahoma State. He can't be terrible if he managed to have 3 straight 11+ win seasons, but I'm not sure that he's GOOD.
 
Pat Narduzzi is a long shot, but he's another name that has been mentioned more than once in connection with the Michigan job. MSU DC Narduzzi was thought to be a serious candidate for the Nebraska job, but the Huskers went with Oregon State HC Mike Riley, so he's still potentially up for grabs. 97.1 The Ticket's Mike Valenti has stated on numerous occasions that Narduzzi would never be accepted by the Michigan fan base due to his association with MSU. I think this is way off base. First of all, MSU has absolutely handled Michigan for the past 7 or 8 years, in large part due to Narduzzi's defense. Secondly, a Narduzzi hire would allow Michigan fans - by whom I mean the crusty, old, "this is MICHIGAN", "that team in Ohio", "most wins in college football" guys Valenti references - to de-legitimize MSU's recent success. Let me explain. If Michigan hires Narduzzi, they ("they" being the crusty old guys) can explain away all those losses to MSU by saying, "D'Antonio ONLY won because he had Narduzzi and now MICHIGAN has Narduzzi, so... Yeah."
 
I think that's bunk, but it gives people an excuse, which is what they want. Narduzzi does run an AMAZING defense, and since the Michigan of my formative years was founded on a defense like that, it gives me chills to think they might go back to that. On the other hand, Narduzzi and D'Antonio are pretty tight, D'Antonio HATES Michigan, and I think Narduzzi going to Ann Arbor in spite of that is unlikely.
 
Teryl Austin is the other top coordinator that is getting HC buzz. He's done wonders with the Lions, who were expected to be a mediocre defense at best, and now he's getting looked at for open coaching positions. I don't WANT him to leave the Lions (and I'd rather have Harbaugh or Mullen, to be honest), but Austin is going to take a HC job in the near future. If he's going to leave, at least he might stay in the state, right? He was Michigan's DBs/defensive assistant coach from 1999-2002, so he has a connection with the school. It was thought he might get a look at the Florida job (he was a DC there in 2010), but they hired Jim McElwain. The only other job offers that might keep Austin out of Ann Arbor would be from the NFL. He might stick with the Lions for another year or two, or he could get that Atlanta job when it opens up, or he may say yes to Michigan.
 
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I went to the Wings game on Tuesday. My dad got some free tickets, 5th row behind the penalty box. Probably the closest I've ever been to the action at a professional sporting event. The Wings were riding a 4 game winning streak but were unable to continue it, losing 4-3 to the Florida Panthers. The Panthers carried most of the play, seemed to be skating faster, and had more active sticks on the ice. Detroit rarely got off a clean shot, scoring 2 of their 3 goals on rebounds. On the other side, the Wings were too careless with the puck in their own zone. 2 or 3 of Florida's goals came off of giveaways in Detroit's own end.
 
They came back last night and beat Dallas 5-2. The effort & focus just happened to dip a little on the game my dad & I went to. Oh well.
 
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The Tigers just dealt Robbie Ray and minor leaguer Domingo Leyba for RHP Shane Greene as part of a 3 team deal with the Yankees and D'backs. The last time the Tigers, Yankees and D'backs were involved in a 3 team deal, Detroit got Austin Jackson, Scherzer and Coke. This was MUCH less of a blockbuster deal (none of the players involved have more than a couple years big league experience), but it solidifies the rotation somewhat.
 
Greene had a pretty good rookie debut with the Yankees last year. Here's what MLBtraderumors has to say:
 Greene is a candidate to immediately fill the fifth slot in the Tigers’ rotation behind David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello. The 26-year-old had an impressive debut with the Yankees in 2014, making 15 appearances (14 starts) and posting a 3.78 ERA (3.73 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA) with 9.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 50.2 percent ground-ball rate in 78 2/3 innings. Greene averaged a solid 93.1 mph on his fastball last year and gives the Tigers a piece they can potentially control in the long-term, with Price and Porcello set to hit free agency next winter. Greene is controllable through the 2020 season.
 It seems like a good deal. I know nothing about Leyba, but Robbie Ray didn't look good last year, and he wasn't a solid candidate to anchor a rotation that might take a team into the playoffs. It also opens the door to possibly do the Porcello for Cespedes deal with Boston.
 
The downside of this trade is that it makes Ray the 2nd player traded away of the 3 players acquired in the Doug Fister trade. The Fister trade was one of Dombrowski's biggest mistakes. It seemed like a cost cutting move in a season when Detroit had World Series aspirations. Fister went on to have a great season (16-6, 2.41 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Steve Lombardozzi, the key piece Detroit acquired, was traded before the season started for Alex Freakin' Gonzalez. Gonzalez appeared in 9 games & batted .167. Robbie Ray, the other main piece Detroit got for Fister, had 2 good starts and then 4 REALLY BAD starts in 2014. He could turn into a pretty good pitcher in the future, but little he did last year hinted at any oncoming onslaught of awesomeness. Ian Krol, Detroit's remaining piece from the Fister trade, didn't exactly light the world on fire either.
 
At this point, it's pretty obvious the Fister trade was a bust. The only thing Detroit might salvage from it is if Shane Greene (the guy we got for one of the guys we got for Fister, along with another guy) turns out to be pretty good and Ian Krol turns into a good lefty specialist (unlikely). I'm hoping for a Porcello for Cespedes deal, then picking up a decent #4 pitcher, some bullpen help, and at least 1 more bat.
 
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I don't want to overlook the Lions-Bucs game, since you can never tell with this team. Detroit should wipe the floor with Tampa, stress on the word SHOULD. Tampa does little, if anything, well. They have the 2nd worst run blocking in football, and their passblocking is worse that Detroit's. I expect McCown's jersey to be pretty dirty by the end of the day, and maybe a defensive TD or so. Tampa's D isn't terrible, but if Stafford is back on the wagon, this should be a runaway.
 
I smell a lot of IF coming off this game (sorry no sweet Jayne Cobb vid or link could be found on short notice), but they should at worst be able to squeak out an ugly one.

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