Wednesday, January 20, 2016

I saw Ben Wallace's jersey go up

I haven't been to a Pistons game in about 3 or 4 years, when my wife & I saw the Pistons get housed by the Heat with my dad. Prior to that, my wife & I had gotten free tickets to a game against Charlotte during a snow storm, and man was that one a rough watch. The last game I'd gone to before that was game 3 of the 2009 playoffs against LeBron's Cavs, which was the single most pathetic effort by a Pistons team I'd ever seen. So I'd been gun shy of going to a game. I hadn't gone to a game that the Pistons won, or even looked competent, in 8 years. Man, did I pick a good one to go to this time.

First, it's a lot harder to get into the Palace than it used to be. This was compounded by the fact that they were retiring Ben Wallace's number. I was going with my dad, and our plan was to arrive around 30 min early. This would've been possible if there were no other cars on the road going to the same thing. Unfortunately for us, there were several thousand cars on the road all on their way to the Palace. It took us about 30 min to go 1 of the 2 miles we needed to get to our exit, after which we would've needed to get through 2 lights on Lapeer Rd and then navigate the parking lot. In that scenario we might've made the 2nd quarter, but it's tough to say. It was REALLY backed up. At that point we decided in a change of strategy, got over 2 lanes and drove down to the next Palace exit on Jocelyn, 2 miles past the first Palace exit. It took us about 5 minutes to drive the last 3 miles and park. We managed to take our seats right after the National Anthem, which was a HUGE relief.

The atmosphere was "rocking", as George Blaha likes to say. Most of the 2004 championship team was sitting courtside, and it was fun picking guys out. I noticed during the intros that Drummond came out and gave 'Sheed a handshake ('Sheed was formerly an assistant coach for the Pistons), although I couldn't tell if he shook anyone else's hand. They showed the different former Pistons on the jumbotron during commercial breaks. Ben Wallace got a HUGE standing O, which brought some tears to his eyes. The other starters got lesser ovations as well, with 'Sheed and Chauncey tying for next biggest.




As you can see, the Pistons handled their business in this one. KCP and Aron Baynes were the stars of the 1st half, and then it got a bit chippy in the 2nd half. Andre Drummond should've had a 20-20 game, but he missed a bunch of tip-in attempts. Reggie Jackson had a bad day from the field as well, AND missed 3 of his 4 FT attempts, but still ended up with a 20 & 8 line, no turnovers, and decent defense on the other end. Stanley Johnson was bad in the first half but great in the 2nd, and Steve Blake had a decent showing as the backup-backup PG.

On the other end, Curry struggled against Detroit's D in the first half, but had better luck in the 2nd half getting free on some illegal screens and dropping some shots that weren't falling earlier. Draymond Green had a totally bad game in general. He got some assists, but he couldn't get his shot to fall and nearly got himself kicked out of the game at one point. I think the officials probably favored the Warriors a little bit, but less than they were used to, and that got them flustered. I was surprised how effective the D was against their ball movement.



The halftime show of course was Ben Wallace's jersey retirement (full video here). During the first half, they had video clips of various players and coaches congratulating Ben on the jumbotron during commercial breaks. Kobe, Jason Kidd, Pat Riley, Stan Van Gundy, and a couple of others. They also showed the members of the 2004 team that were present. That led to a pretty cool crowd response during timeouts and the like. Other former players like Buddha, Mahorn, and Vinnie Johnson (who has even less neck than he used to) were there.

George Blaha gave a great into, and then handed the mic off to Tom Gores, who proceeded to talk FOREVER without saying much. My favorite line from Gores' speech was, "you don't deserve this, you've EARNED this." Uh, what? I like how he said that what Ben Wallace was about is what the Pistons are trying to build now, but most of what he said sounded like he made it up on the spot and didn't have a lot to draw from. Larry Brown gave a good speech AND drew attention to the fact that Dumars wasn't there, a glaring omission. 'Sheed gave a great speech as well, and then Ben spoke.

It made very little sense to have Gores talk, although it's his team so he calls the shots (big difference between him and Bill Davidson as owners). I think it would've been a more fitting tribute if they had canvassed the fans prior to the game with a video camera, asked them what Ben Wallace meant to them, and then mashed together their responses on the jumbotron. Here's what I would've said, if they had asked me that question:

Ben Wallace was the soul of that 2004 championship team and the centerpiece of the 'No Fly Zone', an historically great defense. But to Detroiters, he meant so much more. The level of effort and energy he expended on the basketball court, all the adversity he had to overcome, and his competiveness and determination went beyond the game and inspired us all. His style of play uniquely matched his fan base, where we could appreciate what he did on the court better than any other fan base in the NBA. Ben Wallace transcended the game.


My dad and I saw our fair share of Pistons games when Ben was on the team. We went to a game in the 2004 regular season and saw him block a hook shot from Shaq. We saw watched him on TV put vintage Kevin Garnett in a phone booth and close the door (KG gave him daps for that too. Respect.). We saw him basically block Shaq into his grave in game 5 of the ECF (jeez, that block still amazes me. It's Shaq, he's going up with 2 hands, Ben is coming down with one, it's Shaq, Ben Wallace is like 6 inches shorter and 100 lbs lighter, it's Shaq...). In fact, let me close with the Fear the Fro clip:






***ESPN came out with mid-season grades for all 30 NBA teams. If you don't have an ESPN Insider account, here are the Cliff's Notes:

Overall grade: B+
The Pistons are on pace to make the playoffs and beat ESPN's forecast by 10 wins. SVG's offseason moves have paid off, the starters are playing well as a unit, and the defense looks a lot more like what we've come to expect from a team helmed by Van Gundy. They have enough youth and good building blocks that this group should be able to grow together. They're not ready to be considered "contenders", but they'll be in the fight for a spot in the playoffs.

***

I would be remiss if I didn't talk about the Tigers' big move. On Monday night they signed Justin Upton to a 6 year, $133M deal. Upton has an opt-out clause after the first 2 years of the deal and a partial no-trade clause, so while the price isn't exorbitant in the current market, Upton has a lot of control. Also,  that salary should push the Tigers over the luxury tax threshold once everyone else is signed. That only impacts the owner, and he's stated that he's willing to pay, so no biggie as long as Mike Illitch is alive.

Upton is a pretty solid batter. He's only slightly above average defensively, but he does fill a need in LF. One thing that many have brought up is his right-handedness, which makes the Tigers pretty righty-heavy. Also, he's not better that what they got last year from Cespedes, who would've been more expensive and supposedly didn't want to come back because Ausmus didn't get fired. So that's a lot of money to give a guy that most would describe as "better than average, but not by a whole lot."

Friday, January 15, 2016

A Break from Sports: The Force Awakens

I'm going to do a short break from posting about sports to get into some Star Wars stuff I've been thinking about. I'm going to the Pistons-Warriors game/Ben Wallace jersey retirement ceremony tomorrow, so I'll have plenty to write about. Until then, here are some semi-organized thoughts about Star Wars...

The Force Awakens
I need to get back and re-watch Episode 7, but my first impression was VERY positive. Most movie review websites rank it behind New Hope and Empire Strikes Back, but ahead of Return of the Jedi. That was pretty much my opinion as well. I guess I should say something like, "Here there be Spoilers," but if you haven't watched Force Awakens yet, a) come on, man, and b) you probably don't care enough to be upset by a spoiler.

I was too young when the original trilogy (from here on to be referred to as OT) was released to remember how I felt about the viewing experience as a whole, although one of my earliest memories is my dad carrying me into the theater at the beginning of Jedi (pretty sure I slept through the rest of the movie). The prequels were too limp to generate any emotions higher than extreme excitement followed by extreme disappointment. This movie shook me up. I had the extreme excitement going into the theater, but after that it was a rollercoaster.







My wife came out of the theater feeling "ick" (in her words), but I was more up and down. The decision to kill off Han Solo was pretty hard to take. Harrison Ford as a grizzly, vulnerable, less sure of himself, elderly Solo was easily the best part of the whole movie. I was hoping to get more of that in Episode 8. And losing him was like losing a family friend. The whole scene had more emotional content than the entire prequel trilogy, and the way he died was especially rough. There have been a few crackpot theories that Solo isn't actually dead, but I don't rate them as very likely at all. I would think less of the writers if they played the fans like that. It was pretty ballsy to kill off the series' best-loved character. It challenges the fans and opens up a multitude of possibilities. A major problem with the prequels was they were basically pre-scripted from the beginning and there were essentially no surprises. Now, anything can happen.

I liked the new characters. I've liked John Boyega since I saw
Attack the Block several years ago, so it's good to see him in such a major role in a movie like this. I thought Daisy Ridley was fascinating as Rey. Maz Kanata and Poe Dameron were cool, and I especially liked Poe's flippant, flyboy style. Adam Driver was brilliant as Kylo Ren, but he lacked the menace of Darth Vader towards the end of the movie, which was spent largely without his mask. Kylo Ren is a mix of Hayden Christiansen's whiny, emotional mess in Episodes 2 & 3 (but better written and acted), and Vader's raging power trip in Empire Strikes Back. Supreme Leader Snoke is appropriately menacing, authoritative, and mysterious, but I could take or leave General Hux. Captain Phasma looks pretty cool but doesn't actually do much.

Mysteries of the movie:

  • Who are Rey's parents? Probably either Luke and somebody, or Han & Leia, but maybe neither. I think Luke is most likely based on Rey's strong connection with his lightsaber, her powerful connection with the force, and the looks she exchanged with Luke at the end of the movie
  • Why did they leave her on Jakku? The obvious answer is to protect her from the First Order, Supreme Leader Snoke, and the Knights of Ren, but that opens up more questions. Why Jakku, which appears to be the Star Wars universe's version of Arrakis? Why was she left to fend for herself instead of being left with a guardian (like Luke with Uncle Owen and Aunt Beru, and Obi Wan keeping tabs)?
  • Who are Finn's parents? Speculation is he's Lando's son, but that's mainly because Lando is the only black character from the original trilogy. Some speculation has arisen that he's Mace Windu's grandson. I don't buy this, because the Jedi of Windu's day were warrior monks, and Windu was very committed to that. I think what's more likely is that Finn isn't directly related to Mace Windu, but he comes from the Windu clan. More on this in a second. He might also be a clone of somebody, but the question would remain, who is his father?
  • How was Finn able to break conditioning? Finn was the first stormtrooper we know of ever to break his conditioning. What is so unique about him? Maybe there's something unique about his parentage, which goes back to my Windu clan (or Gosh Windu) theory. Without getting too deep, Mace Windu was a  Korun, a people who were all naturally force sensitive but didn't actually touch the force in the way the Jedi did. Finn could be just a regular guy, and I'd be all for that, but a lot of this fits. He's black, as were all the Korunnai. As his conditioning is breaking down, Kylo Ren senses something is wrong, which suggests that the force is somehow involved in his conditioning breaking down. And Korunnai didn't actually "wield" the force, they just used it naturally, and possibly subconsciously, through their own cultural rituals. Finn doesn't appear be force sensitive, but that might be due to the fact that he's a Korun and has a different sort of connection to the force
  • What has Luke been doing this whole time? He's been on Ahch-To, the supposed site of the first Jedi temple. What new things does he know? How is Luke's use of the force going to look different from how it did before? We know he can see the future, the past, things far away, and friends long gone through the force, so... why didn't he get off his butt when things started going to hell.
  • Who the heck is Snoke? Supreme Leader of the First Order, yes. Powerful with the dark side because he was able to turn and train Ben Solo and the other Knights of Ren. But where does his political influence come from? Where does his force knowledge come from? Some fan theories have speculated that Snoke is Darth Plagueis, who somehow fooled Sidious into thinking he killed him or managed to resurrect himself. Others have suggested he might be Darth Bane, probably the most powerful Sith ever, which would put him at nearly 1,100 years old at the time of Force Awakens.
  • Who are the Knights of Ren? There are at least 7 of them that we know of (from Rey's vision), not counting Snoke as the head of that order, which would make 8. That is a serious deviation from the Sith's "Rule of Two", instituted by Darth Bane 1,000 years earlier because the Sith tended to spend more time fighting and plotting against themselves instead of getting anything done. So what makes the Knights of Ren successful at working together where the Sith failed? Disney's wikia states that they are "an ancient cult of dark side force wielders" and Kylo Ren's lightsaber (which is SUPER sweet-looking, by the way) is supposedly based off of an ancient design. So these Knights of Ren are some kind of retro-throwback with a new look (kind of like The Force Awakens in general, right? By the way, this is a major parallel theme in this movie - both the light side and the dark side are taking an ancient thing and bringing it back to life). But how did Snoke know about all this stuff, how did they stay hidden from both the Sith AND the Jedi for so long, and why are they poking their heads up now?
  • How did Maz Kanata/Kylo Ren get her/his hands on Luke's lightsaber/Vader's mask? Another one of the parallels in this movie (and I'm expecting to see a lot more) is both the dark and the light sides have an artifact from the past that influences a main character. Ren has Vader's melted mask, Maz Kanata gives Rey Luke's old lightsaber. The last we saw Vader's mask, Luke had set it on fire in some remote part of the forest moon of Endor. The last we saw Luke's original lightsaber, it was spinning away into the abyss in the center of Cloud City after Vader had chopped off the hand that was holding it. So how did these things get back into circulation? I assume they are imbued with the force in some way, so it'll be interesting to see how that manifests as the movies roll along.
What's next?
  • Presumably some training with Luke & Rey on Ahch-To. If they follow the pattern previous Star Wars films have established, Episode 8 (no actual title yet, which would give us an inkling of plot) will pick up a few years after the events of the previous movie. Everything I've heard suggests that this will be the case with Ep. 8 as well. So, I expect Rey will be about mid-way through her training and either Luke will send her out, or she'll take off like HE did in Empire Strikes Back. But the training should be super-cool
  • Also, maybe some training with Snoke and Kylo Ren, but probably not. Snoke had invited Ren back to wherever he was to complete Ren's training. Since Kylo Ren was wielding a flawed saber, was a conflicted emotional mess, and got his ass handed to him by the entirely untrained Rey, some more training is definitely in order. But I doubt they show us much of this, if any. Baddies are more menacing if they're more mysterious. The unknown usually is. So, I expect we won't actually see any training but we might see some type of special dark side knighting ceremony or something.
  • Some light will be shed on Finn's backstory. Rey left Finn with the Resistance, still unconscious and recovering from his wounds. He's got a lot of inside information about the First Order and Stormtroopers in general, so obviously the Resistance will want to utilize that knowledge. He's also buddy-buddy with Poe Dameron, so I expect they'll partner up on missions, and Poe will help Finn find out more about where he comes from. There is a rumor about a Billy Dee Williams cameo in Ep. 8, which adds some fuel to the theory that he's Finn's dad, but I'd go the other way. A cameo suggests a minor role, and you would think if he were Finn's dad, he'd get a lot more screen time than "cameo". Anyway...
  • Some rebuilding from both sides. The good guys lost their governing body, the bad guys lost their main weapon. My guess is the First Order stays ahead of the Resistance in their rebuild due to stronger central leadership under Snoke. Nothing has changed there for them. Meanwhile, the natural inclination of the good guys would be to push General Leia more towards politics, maybe Queen of the Galaxy or something, and my feeling was she was trying to be done with all of that. Hopefully they only briefly cover the political mumbo-jumbo, because that was a big flaw in the prequels
  • More of a romance angle between Finn & Rey. This was teased in Force Awakens, but you only saw the beginnings of it. These two feel strongly for each other. Romances are more interesting when there's conflict, and I'm not sure how that gets introduced because they seemed to gravitate toward each other instead of clashing, like Han & Leia did. I'm fully expecting Finn & Rey's relationship to follow a similar path though, expect this to develop more fully.
Episode 8 is scheduled to release May 26th, 2017, so we've got a long wait ahead of us, albeit less of one than what Lucas imposed (1 movie every 3 years). The director is Rian Johnson, not JJ Abrams. Johnson directed Brick, a pretty cool noir spoof/homage, and Looper, a time travel movie with Bruce Willis and Joseph Gordon Levitt that was ok but not great. In other words, it's not in as sure hands as it was when Abrams helmed Ep. 7, but I'm interested to see what he does with it. Some fans have petitioned to replace Ep. 9 director Colin Trevorrow (of Jurassic World fame) with Lucas, to which I would say, "Did you see the last 3 movies Lucas directed?" He hasn't directed a "good" movie since 1977.


I might have more to say, but that'll probably come after I watch Force Awakens again.

Friday, January 8, 2016

Lions Season Review & Outlook

This was a MASSIVELY disappointing season for the Detroit Lions. After narrowly missing out on their first playoff victory since 1991, expectations were high for the 2015-'16 season. But a combination of injuries, player turnover in free agency, and historically poor drafting left the roster talent-depleted. On top of that, Detroit had one of the toughest 1st-half schedules in the NFL. 5 of the 8 teams they faced would go on to make the playoffs, 2 of which clinched a first-round bye.

Detroit finished the first half of the season as the worst team in football, at 1-7. The offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, was clearly a bad fit and certainly a poor play-caller, and he failed to improve whatsoever in his 2nd year at the position. Caldweld opted to fire him MUCH too late, just before the mid-way point in the season. They would be pointlessly better in the 2nd half under his replacement, Jim Bob Cooter (I'll never get tired of saying that name), going 6-2 with the easier schedule. The offense DID seem to click more, and the Lions narrowly missed sweeping the season series with the Packers, who memorably won on a 65-yard Hail Mary bomb that Caldwell somehow didn't see coming. Of course there were the Mayhew/Lewand firings which gave the fan base some hope, but that again came too late as the team is already devastated from years of poor drafting.

Now that the season is over, Pro Football Focus has come out with their player grades (I don't have a subscription but you can see the Lions' grades here on YardBarker). PFF assigns a value to each play a player makes, from -2 (really, really bad) to +2 (really, really good). Those values are reviewed by 2 or 3 other guys, and then converted to a 0-100 grading scale. For ranking purposes, anyone at 0-59 overall is ranked as "Replaceable", 60-69 is rated as "Back Up", 70-84 is at "Starter", 85-89 is at "Pro Bowl", and 90-100 is "Elite". Looking at the 17 major contributors on each side of the ball, the Lions finished with 1 PB level on offense and 1 on defense (CJ, Slay), 4 "Starter" level players on offense and 10 on defense, 6 backup level players on offense and 3 on defense, and 6 replaceable players on offense, 3 on defense. The next time someone says "this team has too much talent to lose" about the Lions, please refrain from punching that person in the face. Let's look a little deeper...

OffenseStafford finished as the 22nd-ranked QB in the league, BARELY making a "Starter" rating by PFF. He had a bipolar season though. He was atrocious in the first half of the season, top 5 in the 2nd half. Some of that epically bad 1st half performance should be hung on the OC Joe Lombardi though. The WR group was pretty bad after Calvin and Golden, which seems to be the case every year. The Lions will save a TON of money if Calvin retires, but he would also leave a pretty big hole at the position. The RB group made up for some of Detroit's receiving deficiencies, as all three rated above Starter-level as pass catchers, and Riddick was uber-Elite with a 99.9 Receiving value. They left a bit to be desired as runners however, but the fault of that lies with...

...the offensive line. Outside of Manny Ramirez, who played at near-Pro Bowl level, none of the OL rated above Back Up. The two guards were the most disappointing. The Lions used high-ish draft picks on Warford and Tomlinson in the last 2 drafts, yet neither player managed to be a credible starter. Swanson was the worst lineman on the team, but managed to steal snaps (88%) from the FAR superior Ramirez (45%). The good news is that this is a pretty young group, and you can expect vast improvements from Swanson, Warford and Tomlinson as they mature. Offensive linemen take longer to get up to NFL speed than other position groups. The bad news is that as young as they are, they still played below expectations, and Reiff is out of position on the right side. The Lions could upgrade 2 positions by acquiring a credible LT and moving Reiff to RT. If that happens and Warford bounces back (he was near Pro Bowl-level last year), this line could at least be average.

The Lions' worst position group BY FAR was TE. This is both unsurprising and supremely disappointing. You'd expect better from a position where the Lions spent 2 1st-round picks over the last 7 years, but Ebron was the #43 TE in the NFL and Pettigrew was 70th. With 31 other teams in the league, Ebron wouldn't even be the backup TE on 12 of them. Pettigrew's only value whatsoever is as a pass blocker. His run blocking, believe it or not, was worse than even Ebron's or Tim Wright's, who is a notably crappy blocker. The Lions could take almost any TE off of a scrap heap, dump Pettigrew, and improve this position. In fact, they did. When Pettigrew went down for the season in December, the Lions picked up replacement-level player Bear Pascoe, who played little over the final 3 games but finished with the 2nd-highest overall rating among Lions TEs. At replacement level. Yeah.

Defense:This was a much better group than the offense, although that's not hard to imagine because the offense was so bereft of talent. The Lions had strong seasons from their DE group, OLBs, and CBs, but DT, MLB and S could stand to see some improvement. The best S on the team was Isa Abdul-Quddus and if he had played full-time at the position, this would've been a better group. Unfortunately, he split time with James Ihedigbo there, with Ihedigbo getting the slight edge in snaps. Both players are UFAs this spring, so expect the Lions to try to re-sign Abdul-Quddus and let the door hit Ihedigbo on the way out.

Defensive tackle is a particularly troubling position. Once for the 2nd year in a row, basically everyone there except for Reid is set to be an UFA this spring. Ngata was the only guy who even played at Starter level. The Lions need to spend a top pick here, and probably re-sign Walker and one or 2 other guys. LB is in better shape, although the wrong guy between Tulloch and Whitehead is at the end of his current contract. Honestly, the Lions are better off signing Whitehead, cutting Stephen Tulloch (saving $4.2M off the cap), and going with one of Whitehead or Levy at MLB.

Slay was the best player on the entire defense, and Quandre Diggs played credibly after Rashean Mathis went down with a concussion. Mathis is under contract for 1 more year, but he's contemplating retirement and for the sake of the Lions and his own health, he should do it. This was essentially Nevin Lawson's rookie year, and he played like a guy looking to make a career as a special teamer, because he was AWFUL in coverage.

Coaching:The firing of Joe Lombardi and promotion of Jim Bob Cooter to OC seemed to get the offense going. After averaging 18.6 points per game in the first half (I know Cooter coached 1 game in the first half, but he had zero time to install anything until after the bye), Cooter took over and the offense became more balanced, scoring 26.1 per contest and averaging an extra 30 yards rushing.

Teryl Austin had a down year compared to last year, although he suffered a lot more from player turnover than did the offense. Still, his defense also improved in the 2nd half and he remains one of the better DCs in the game.

Caldwell... I would rate him somewhere between the middle to bottom-third of all NFL coaches. He's better than any coach the Lions have had since... well, let's just say the Lions haven't exactly had a good coach in a long while. Or even a mediocre coach. But Caldwell has cost them some games. His game management in the 4th and endgame strategy is really, really bad. However, his players line up for him, he appears to have a couple of pretty good assistants in Cooter & Austin (if Austin doesn't take a HC job somewhere), and the Lions' 6-2 finish may have bought him another year. I'm probably 50/50 on keeping him, maybe 60/40. Sean Payton was the hottest coaching commodity potentially available, and Chuck Pagano was probably #2, both of whom re-signed with their same teams. Without a more attractive name out there, I'd stick with what we've got.

Outlook/Off-season Strategy:This season was a failure, and the Lions are still looking somewhat anemic in the talent department, especially if Calvin retires. Their biggest needs are DT (again), OL (again), and WR. MLB and S can be fixed internally, although they'll need to at least add depth in FA or the draft. CB will need depth as well.

I'd like to see the Lions back the truck up and make a big-ish offer to LT Russell Okung, which would improve both the LT position and RT by allowing Reiff to move to where he's a better fit. Spend one of the top 2 picks on a DT, and one of the top 4 on a WR. There are a large number of decent-to-good WRs available in FA this spring as well, so if Calvin Johnson DOES retire, the Lions could spend that money on one of Alshon Jeffrey, Rueben Randle, Jermaine Kearse, Hakeem Nicks, or James Jones and have plenty to spare.

The biggest, and probably first, domino to fall will be the GM hire. I like that the Lions have interviewed some candidates from some quality programs, like the Giant's assistant GM Kevin Abrams, Seattle's co-director of player personnel Trent Kirchner, and New England's director of pro scouting Bob Quinn. They're also interviewing an internal candidate, interim GM Sheldon White. I don't know how many other candidates they want to interview, but I REALLY hope they go outside the organization. Back when they hired Mayhew and Lewand, the Lions allowed the stink of Matt Millen to linger. They already hired Rod Hood to replace Lewand, and Wood was very much an internal hire. If they want a culture change, they shouldn't hire a GM who has been associated with the team for 19 years.

Honestly, if everything goes right this off-season, Detroit can get back into the playoffs next year. Say they sign Okung, Calvin retires and they get 2 or 3 decent WRs to replace him, the draft goes well, they're able to upgrade the D line, and Levy stays healthy. That feels like a playoff team to me. Maybe even a division winner. But if a majority of those things go wrong, this team is in for another slew of losing seasons. Getting Okung, and a healthy Okung, is probably the main thing. They can't go another year with a crappy offensive line.