This was a MASSIVELY disappointing season for the Detroit Lions. After narrowly missing out on their first playoff victory since 1991, expectations were high for the 2015-'16 season. But a combination of injuries, player turnover in free agency, and historically poor drafting left the roster talent-depleted. On top of that, Detroit had one of the toughest 1st-half schedules in the NFL. 5 of the 8 teams they faced would go on to make the playoffs, 2 of which clinched a first-round bye.
Detroit finished the first half of the season as the worst team in football, at 1-7. The offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, was clearly a bad fit and certainly a poor play-caller, and he failed to improve whatsoever in his 2nd year at the position. Caldweld opted to fire him MUCH too late, just before the mid-way point in the season. They would be pointlessly better in the 2nd half under his replacement, Jim Bob Cooter (I'll never get tired of saying that name), going 6-2 with the easier schedule. The offense DID seem to click more, and the Lions narrowly missed sweeping the season series with the Packers, who memorably won on a 65-yard Hail Mary bomb that Caldwell somehow didn't see coming. Of course there were the Mayhew/Lewand firings which gave the fan base some hope, but that again came too late as the team is already devastated from years of poor drafting.
Now that the season is over, Pro Football Focus has come out with their player grades (I don't have a subscription but you can see the Lions' grades here on YardBarker). PFF assigns a value to each play a player makes, from -2 (really, really bad) to +2 (really, really good). Those values are reviewed by 2 or 3 other guys, and then converted to a 0-100 grading scale. For ranking purposes, anyone at 0-59 overall is ranked as "Replaceable", 60-69 is rated as "Back Up", 70-84 is at "Starter", 85-89 is at "Pro Bowl", and 90-100 is "Elite". Looking at the 17 major contributors on each side of the ball, the Lions finished with 1 PB level on offense and 1 on defense (CJ, Slay), 4 "Starter" level players on offense and 10 on defense, 6 backup level players on offense and 3 on defense, and 6 replaceable players on offense, 3 on defense. The next time someone says "this team has too much talent to lose" about the Lions, please refrain from punching that person in the face. Let's look a little deeper...
OffenseStafford finished as the 22nd-ranked QB in the league, BARELY making a "Starter" rating by PFF. He had a bipolar season though. He was atrocious in the first half of the season, top 5 in the 2nd half. Some of that epically bad 1st half performance should be hung on the OC Joe Lombardi though. The WR group was pretty bad after Calvin and Golden, which seems to be the case every year. The Lions will save a TON of money if Calvin retires, but he would also leave a pretty big hole at the position. The RB group made up for some of Detroit's receiving deficiencies, as all three rated above Starter-level as pass catchers, and Riddick was uber-Elite with a 99.9 Receiving value. They left a bit to be desired as runners however, but the fault of that lies with...
...the offensive line. Outside of Manny Ramirez, who played at near-Pro Bowl level, none of the OL rated above Back Up. The two guards were the most disappointing. The Lions used high-ish draft picks on Warford and Tomlinson in the last 2 drafts, yet neither player managed to be a credible starter. Swanson was the worst lineman on the team, but managed to steal snaps (88%) from the FAR superior Ramirez (45%). The good news is that this is a pretty young group, and you can expect vast improvements from Swanson, Warford and Tomlinson as they mature. Offensive linemen take longer to get up to NFL speed than other position groups. The bad news is that as young as they are, they still played below expectations, and Reiff is out of position on the right side. The Lions could upgrade 2 positions by acquiring a credible LT and moving Reiff to RT. If that happens and Warford bounces back (he was near Pro Bowl-level last year), this line could at least be average.
The Lions' worst position group BY FAR was TE. This is both unsurprising and supremely disappointing. You'd expect better from a position where the Lions spent 2 1st-round picks over the last 7 years, but Ebron was the #43 TE in the NFL and Pettigrew was 70th. With 31 other teams in the league, Ebron wouldn't even be the backup TE on 12 of them. Pettigrew's only value whatsoever is as a pass blocker. His run blocking, believe it or not, was worse than even Ebron's or Tim Wright's, who is a notably crappy blocker. The Lions could take almost any TE off of a scrap heap, dump Pettigrew, and improve this position. In fact, they did. When Pettigrew went down for the season in December, the Lions picked up replacement-level player Bear Pascoe, who played little over the final 3 games but finished with the 2nd-highest overall rating among Lions TEs. At replacement level. Yeah.
Defense:This was a much better group than the offense, although that's not hard to imagine because the offense was so bereft of talent. The Lions had strong seasons from their DE group, OLBs, and CBs, but DT, MLB and S could stand to see some improvement. The best S on the team was Isa Abdul-Quddus and if he had played full-time at the position, this would've been a better group. Unfortunately, he split time with James Ihedigbo there, with Ihedigbo getting the slight edge in snaps. Both players are UFAs this spring, so expect the Lions to try to re-sign Abdul-Quddus and let the door hit Ihedigbo on the way out.
Defensive tackle is a particularly troubling position. Once for the 2nd year in a row, basically everyone there except for Reid is set to be an UFA this spring. Ngata was the only guy who even played at Starter level. The Lions need to spend a top pick here, and probably re-sign Walker and one or 2 other guys. LB is in better shape, although the wrong guy between Tulloch and Whitehead is at the end of his current contract. Honestly, the Lions are better off signing Whitehead, cutting Stephen Tulloch (saving $4.2M off the cap), and going with one of Whitehead or Levy at MLB.
Slay was the best player on the entire defense, and Quandre Diggs played credibly after Rashean Mathis went down with a concussion. Mathis is under contract for 1 more year, but he's contemplating retirement and for the sake of the Lions and his own health, he should do it. This was essentially Nevin Lawson's rookie year, and he played like a guy looking to make a career as a special teamer, because he was AWFUL in coverage.
Coaching:The firing of Joe Lombardi and promotion of Jim Bob Cooter to OC seemed to get the offense going. After averaging 18.6 points per game in the first half (I know Cooter coached 1 game in the first half, but he had zero time to install anything until after the bye), Cooter took over and the offense became more balanced, scoring 26.1 per contest and averaging an extra 30 yards rushing.
Teryl Austin had a down year compared to last year, although he suffered a lot more from player turnover than did the offense. Still, his defense also improved in the 2nd half and he remains one of the better DCs in the game.
Caldwell... I would rate him somewhere between the middle to bottom-third of all NFL coaches. He's better than any coach the Lions have had since... well, let's just say the Lions haven't exactly had a good coach in a long while. Or even a mediocre coach. But Caldwell has cost them some games. His game management in the 4th and endgame strategy is really, really bad. However, his players line up for him, he appears to have a couple of pretty good assistants in Cooter & Austin (if Austin doesn't take a HC job somewhere), and the Lions' 6-2 finish may have bought him another year. I'm probably 50/50 on keeping him, maybe 60/40. Sean Payton was the hottest coaching commodity potentially available, and Chuck Pagano was probably #2, both of whom re-signed with their same teams. Without a more attractive name out there, I'd stick with what we've got.
Outlook/Off-season Strategy:This season was a failure, and the Lions are still looking somewhat anemic in the talent department, especially if Calvin retires. Their biggest needs are DT (again), OL (again), and WR. MLB and S can be fixed internally, although they'll need to at least add depth in FA or the draft. CB will need depth as well.
I'd like to see the Lions back the truck up and make a big-ish offer to LT Russell Okung, which would improve both the LT position and RT by allowing Reiff to move to where he's a better fit. Spend one of the top 2 picks on a DT, and one of the top 4 on a WR. There are a large number of decent-to-good WRs available in FA this spring as well, so if Calvin Johnson DOES retire, the Lions could spend that money on one of Alshon Jeffrey, Rueben Randle, Jermaine Kearse, Hakeem Nicks, or James Jones and have plenty to spare.
The biggest, and probably first, domino to fall will be the GM hire. I like that the Lions have interviewed some candidates from some quality programs, like the Giant's assistant GM Kevin Abrams, Seattle's co-director of player personnel Trent Kirchner, and New England's director of pro scouting Bob Quinn. They're also interviewing an internal candidate, interim GM Sheldon White. I don't know how many other candidates they want to interview, but I REALLY hope they go outside the organization. Back when they hired Mayhew and Lewand, the Lions allowed the stink of Matt Millen to linger. They already hired Rod Hood to replace Lewand, and Wood was very much an internal hire. If they want a culture change, they shouldn't hire a GM who has been associated with the team for 19 years.
Honestly, if everything goes right this off-season, Detroit can get back into the playoffs next year. Say they sign Okung, Calvin retires and they get 2 or 3 decent WRs to replace him, the draft goes well, they're able to upgrade the D line, and Levy stays healthy. That feels like a playoff team to me. Maybe even a division winner. But if a majority of those things go wrong, this team is in for another slew of losing seasons. Getting Okung, and a healthy Okung, is probably the main thing. They can't go another year with a crappy offensive line.
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