The Tigers are in bad shape. It might not look so bad on the surface, if you haven't been paying attention. They're only 3 games below .500 and 4 games behind the Division-leading Twins, who can't POSSIBLY be for real (right? RIGHT???). Plus, the Tigers have an inordinate number of key players who are starting slow or slumping right now, so we should have every expectation that they'll turn this thing around...
Except it's June. It's no longer "getting the kinks out". The season is nearly a third of the way over, and guys like Cabrera are playing WELL below expectations. In fact, let's look at the main culprits:
Something worth pointing out about Victor Martinez - he's on pace to strike out over 100 times, something he's never done in his career
These are 4 of your 5 highest-paid Tigers. The other is Justin Upton, who is actually having a pretty good year (on pace for 40+ HR). Going into this year, we had a few assumptions - Cabrera and Victor would hit (they aren't), Verlander would be at least "good", if not "great" (more like "mediocre"), Zimmerman would be better than last year (he's worse), the starting pitching would be a strength (it's kinda not, at 13th out of 30 teams), and the bullpen would struggle (ok, nailed that one). It's looking like the Tigers' aging core has started to fall off the cliff.
*** To be fair to Cabrera, we recently discovered he's been playing through a litany of injuries since the World Baseball Classic, so it's safe to say his game hasn't deteriorated THIS much. At the same time, he's on the wrong side of 30, so I expect injuries to be more of a factor down the road.
But wait! It gets worse! Check out the salary situation going down the road:
But wait! It gets worse! Check out the salary situation going down the road:
That's right, we are shelling out $30M/yr to Cabrera through the end of the chart. In actuality, that number increases to $32M for each of 2022 and 2023, and there are 2 conditional $30M years on the contract after THAT. It's not very likely Miguel will meet the conditions (must finish in top 10 of MVP voting in 2024 & 2025), but the earliest he's going to come off the payroll is after 2023, at the age of 40.
Victor Martinez looks like a bargain by comparison, since we only owe him $18M for one more year. Still, he's getting paid to be an All Star, and his OPS is 35 points below the AL average. As a DH who can't run anymore (I honestly don't think there is a slower player in all of baseball), his only value is as a hitter, and he's not hitting. Additionally, he's slotted in the clean-up spot for some reason... This insanity deserves its own paragraph, so hold that thought.
One year removed from being the top pitcher according to Wins Above Replacement, Verlander now ranks 81st (56th among starters). He might not be this bad, but I seriously doubt he'll be in the Cy Young conversation again.
As bad as all those other contracts are, Zimmerman's is far, FAR worse. He currently ranks 114th among starting pitchers, according to WAR (and 334 overall). Yet for the next 3 years, he'll be getting money that usually goes to a top 10 starter. For perspective, we're paying him more next year than Max Scherzer is getting (although Scherzer's salary jumps SIGNIFICANTLY the 3 years after that). Zimmerman has managed to string together 3 good starts in a row, but his best days seem to be behind him.
Victor Martinez looks like a bargain by comparison, since we only owe him $18M for one more year. Still, he's getting paid to be an All Star, and his OPS is 35 points below the AL average. As a DH who can't run anymore (I honestly don't think there is a slower player in all of baseball), his only value is as a hitter, and he's not hitting. Additionally, he's slotted in the clean-up spot for some reason... This insanity deserves its own paragraph, so hold that thought.
One year removed from being the top pitcher according to Wins Above Replacement, Verlander now ranks 81st (56th among starters). He might not be this bad, but I seriously doubt he'll be in the Cy Young conversation again.
As bad as all those other contracts are, Zimmerman's is far, FAR worse. He currently ranks 114th among starting pitchers, according to WAR (and 334 overall). Yet for the next 3 years, he'll be getting money that usually goes to a top 10 starter. For perspective, we're paying him more next year than Max Scherzer is getting (although Scherzer's salary jumps SIGNIFICANTLY the 3 years after that). Zimmerman has managed to string together 3 good starts in a row, but his best days seem to be behind him.
Just to underscore the intractability of the situation, here are some of the guys that are getting paid not to play for us. Additionally, Anibal Sanchez is getting $16M to play minor league ball. Sanchez, Pelfrey, and Lowe's money will come off the books after this season, but we're still paying Prince Fielder (now retired) $6M of dead money through 2020.
If you add up the dead money, the guys under contract next year, and then figure Upton & Kinsler come back, that's $140M dedicated to 2 position players, a DH, 2 starting pitchers, and 2 guys who won't be on the team. The luxury tax threshold will be $197M next year, which leaves $57M to fill out the roster. That's about an average of $3M per player, assuming only a 25-man roster (it'll be more than that).
The rumor is that JD Martinez could be traded for multiple top prospects... Not the #1 guy, but maybe the #2 guy and a couple other higher prospects in a given system. Given the cap situation, the degrading core, and the state of the Tigers' farm system, this has to be a no brainer.
