Friday, December 12, 2014

Don't sleep on the Vikings' Special Teams

The Lions are playing their 3rd of 4 straight games that they SHOULD win. I keep capitalizing "SHOULD" because a) it's the NFL and crazy things happen (like Arizona losing to Atlanta, or Washington beating ANYONE), and b) the Lions don't always beat the teams they SHOULD beat, especially in December. I'm going to continue to not take wins for granted until such time as the Lions string together a Patriots-like dynasty of multiple championships and yearly playoff appearances. I'm not holding my breath.


Anyway, this iteration of an opponent who is overlookable but should NOT be overlooked is Minnesota. The Vikings are on a 2 game winning streak (like Detroit) and at 6-7 aren't TERRIBLE. Their defense is middle of the road (17th in DVOA), slightly better vs. the pass than vs. the run. They do a pretty good job getting after the QB, although that's mainly due to Everson Griffen (12 sacks). The Lions' offensive line is in the best shape it's been since game 1, so hopefully they can keep him in check. On the flip side, Minnesota's O line has given up 40 sacks, which is a lot considering how reliant on the run they are. The last time these 2 teams faced each other, the Lions' D line feasted on Teddy Bridgewater to the tune of 8 sacks and 13 QB hits.

Speaking of Bridgewater, he's had a couple of nice games the past 2 weeks. The last time he saw the Lions, he ate a lot of turf & finished with a 2.5 QBR, 41.3 passer rating. The last 2 games he's had QBRs of 84.1 & 72.4, with passer ratings of 120.7 & 117.7. He was sacked 3 times in each game. The Lions SHOULD put more pressure than that on him, but Suh has missed the last 2 practices with the flu. If he's not good to go, the complexion of this game changes dramatically. Despite having a poor line, Bridgewater is pretty elusive. The Lions have been pretty good at tracking down elusive QBs this year, but if Suh isn't in there blowing up the RG, expect some of this:


I REALLY hope Suh is healthy for Sunday's game. The silver lining to Suh missing the game would be a) Minnesota is bad enough that the Lions should be able to beat them without Suh, and b) we could get a preview of how bad the defense would be without him. Suh may well be gone after next year. He's looking for JJ Watt money, and the Lions aren't well-positioned to give it to him. I think they HAVE to if they want to continue having a good defense, but right now that isn't the concensus opinion. If he misses the game and the defense looks bad, the offseason will feature a bunch of Take My Money memes with with either Martin Mayhew or Martha Ford's face pasted over Fry's.

Detroit's offense looked pretty good the last 2 weeks against some bad defenses, although Tampa's D is only marginally worse than Minnesota's. I'm expecting a lot more Joique Bell. The last 2 weeks he's been pretty good, getting 174 yards & 3 TDs out of 41 carries, plus 66 yds receiving & another TD on 7 catches. Reggie Bush still isn't 100%, and he doesn't look like the type of guy to get yards behind this line. Bell looks like Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch right now.

One thing to watch out for - Special Teams. Minnesota had 2 blocked punts vs. Carolina, and they have the #10 ranked Special Teams unit in the NFL. Detroit is ranked 30th out of 32, although much of that is due to their crappy FG kicking situation that looks a lot better now. Still, watch out for this stuff:



And they've got some pretty sweet fake punt sets too. Don't sleep on this. Minnesota is the type of team that likes to go for it. Their offense isn't very good, so they have to find points wherever they can. This isn't to say they go for it on 4th down all the time, however. The Vikes have only attempted 9 4th-down conversions (Detroit is actually one of the least conservative teams, at least numbers-wise, with 15 attempts). Just... watch out.

***

In other news, this is depressing:
 
 
That ain't pretty. The way the big recruits are bailing, this doesn't look to improve any time soon. Much will depend on who Michigan hires as the new HC. If they end up with Harbaugh, I expect a pretty quick turnaround. If they get a guy like Dan Mullens, less quick but still pretty good. If they end up with another whodat, expect a downfall of Ellerbe-ian proportions.
 
On the bright side, can't get worse, right? RIGHT???

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