It breaks out differently depending on which criteria you want to use in the Playoff Machine, but I'll get to that in a minute. Let's talk about Thursday first. I was legitimately worried after the defense looked lost in the 1st quarter (once again!), but they locked it down and held Chicago to a FG for the rest of the game. The offense once again got 3 points when they should've gotten 7, thanks to some inaccuracy by Stafford, and then coughed the ball up on their own 6 due to Stafford forgetting that Chicago was blitzing 2 guys on his blind side. Then in the 2nd quarter, the offense looked all-world.
This was classic Stafford to CJ. Calvin used his speed and size to find the hole and then out-position Kyle Fuller to snag the ball. Stafford found his accuracy in the sock drawer or something and laid out a perfect pass. It's not Odell Beckham Jr catching a ball with 3 fingers, but it's a pretty toss & catch. The 2nd TD came on a 4th & 1 play when Caldwell, perhaps in response to some of the criticism of his conservative tactics vs. Arizona & New England, handed it off to Joique Bell for the score.
Let me point out that the call appeared to be for an up-the-gut run that wasn't there, but Joique jumped for it and stuck the nose of the ball over the line. Calvin then got his 2nd TD of the game that was pretty run of the mill CJ, just beat his guy for a score. He would finish with 11 catches for 146 yds and the 2 TDs.
Joique had a good game as well, 91 yards and 2 TDs. I thought he might get 100 but Detroit stayed with the passing game to extend their 4th quarter drives. The defense did well, forcing 2 turnovers (1 after the game clock expired) and basically holding Chicago to 10 points (not counting the TD gift-wrapped by Stafford's fumble). The offensive line was better, allowing 2 sacks and 5 hits. Corey Lucas looked ok replacing the injured Riley Reiff (it was Brandon Pettigrew Jared Allen blew by on his way to the fumble-sack), and the run game was solid. Still, this was CHICAGO.
Outside of GB in week 17, the Lions have a pretty easy remaining schedule. I assume nothing in the NFL (and with this team ESPECIALLY), but the Lions SHOULD win their home games vs. Tampa and Minnesota, and the road game vs. the Bears. Green Bay looks like the best team in football right now, so unless their playoff position is locked up and they sit Rodgers, that's probably a loss.
Playoff-wise, this season is pretty weird. The NFC South unfortunately gets an automatic bid, so either Atlanta, New Orleans, or Carolina could win that division with a losing record AND still have home field after the Wild Card round (Seattle famously won the NFC West in 2010 with a 7-9 record, then beat the defending SB champs in round 2 because Seattle has the biggest home field advantage in the NFL). Assuming GB wins the division (Detroit would have to win out & GB would need to lose to Detroit & 1 other team for the Lions to take the NFC Norris), the Lions will be duking it out with the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Cowboys/Eagles, and possibly the Cardinals for 1 of 2 available Wild Card spots.
The NFC West is TOUGH right now. Arizona is in the lead with a 9-3 record, but they've dropped their last 2 since beating the Lions (dammit) and have looked very shaky. They'll probably lose at least 1 more (wk 16 @ Seattle), but they also have games vs. the 7-5 Chiefs and @ the 7-5 49ers. They may finish the year 12-4. They may finish 10-6 and miss the playoffs. Seattle looks like the best of the 3 NFC West teams, but they've got a pretty tough remaining schedule, facing PHI, SF and AZ their next 3 games, 2 of those are away games. The 49ers have the easiest remaining schedule of the 3 teams, but if they lose in Seattle wk 15, they're out.
The NFC East is a little less convoluted. Philly is in the driver's seat after taking care of Dallas on Thanksgiving. If they sweep Dallas with a home win on wk 15, they can afford a loss against Seattle wk 14, win out, and take the division. If Dallas doesn't win their division, they'll need some help from either Detroit or a serious malfunction in the NFC West to make the playoffs at 11-5 or 10-6. They own virtually no tie-breakers over the teams in the other conferences.
Detroit can and SHOULD finish the season at 11-5. The only scenario in which they might miss the playoffs is if a) Dallas wins out, finishing 12-4, b) Philly loses to Dallas but also finishes 12-4, and c) Seattle AND Arizona both finish at 11-5 or better. I don't think Dallas will beat both Philly AND Indianapolis. The 'Boys have a long and storied tradition of choking down the stretch. The problem? So do the Lions. If the offense is actually "figured out", they should have no problem dispatching TB, MIN & CHI, and they could give GB a run for their money in wk 17. If it isn't figured out, they should still handle TB, MIN & CHI before getting out-gunned by GB. If they implode like last year (and the year before that, and the year before that...), all bets are off and they could back out of the playoff picture.
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The Red Wings have gotten hot, thanks in large part to Pavel Datsyuk and Stephen Weiss (finally!) getting healthy. Weiss now has 5 points in 5 games (3 goals) and Datsyuk has 15 points in 13 games (9 goals). Abdelkader might miss some time with a shoulder injury and Nyquist has slowed after a torrid start, but the Wings have won their last 4 straight (including a rare SO win!), with Weiss having a 2-goal game and Pavel Datsyuk two 2-goal games in that time. Right now they're 1 point behind Montreal and Tampa in the Atlantic Division. They look REALLY good right now.
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There's some Tigers off-season buzz I'll get to tomorrow. Just be thankful... for what you got!
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