Michigan shows its hand, and it's a good one

Michigan has offered Jim Harbaugh the head coaching job for somewhere between 6 years $48M and $49M. At $8M - $8.2M/yr, that would make Harbaugh the highest paid coach in the NCAA and one of the highest paid in all of sports (there are a couple soccer coaches making $10M+, but there are very few coaches in an sport making at least $8M).  Adam Schefter, who is rarely wrong, doesn't think it likely Harbaugh would go back to coaching college ball, but says he's at least "considering" the offer. In Ann Arbor there was much rejoicing.

Schefter is a Michigan alum, and his rooting interest is for Harbaugh to take the Michigan job (Schefter has openly said this). I get the feeling this is more Schefter's opinion than something he heard from Harbaugh's camp. The argument for Harbaugh taking an NFL job over the Michigan job is supported by the belief that a) an NFL job is more prestigious than any college job, b) there are a number of (presumeably) open NFL jobs that are better situations than Michigan is right now, and c) Harbaugh's family would prefer to stay in the Bay Area. Let me handle these one at a time.

First, an NFL job is OBVIOUSLY more prestigious than any NCAA job, right? Well, I'm not so sure. Yes, the NFL is king, but the largest NFL stadium is in Texas and seats 4,780 fewer people than The Big House (Officially, anyway. Unofficially, Michigan Stadium can cram in about 10,000 more people than the Cowboys can). Despite being in decline over the last decade, Michigan is still considered one of the most prestigious jobs in college football. Of the potential NFL jobs out there, only Washington, the Jets, and possibly Chicago have similar prestige to the Michigan job.

Second, and this is a fair point, but Harbaugh could take a job like the Miami or Atlanta job and be in the playoffs next year. Michigan is pretty talent bereft right now, and top recruits are decommitting like crazy. I'd say Miami, Chicago, and Atlanta are all pretty talented teams, while Michigan needs a lot of work. Here's the thing: a Harbaugh rebuild would take a year, two at most. Stanford was 1-11 the year before Jim Harbaugh took over (it was their 5th straight losing season). His first year they were 4-8, then 5-7, then 8-5, and finally 12-1. Well, Michigan finished 5-7 in 2014. They actually had a decent defense, and outside of OSU and MSU, their division is weak. I expect them to be record-strong in year 1 of a potential Harbaugh reign (say a 8-5 team that would be 6-8 in the SEC). I expect them to beat OSU and be actually strong (make the playoff) by year 4 or 5. Michigan is in a bad way right now, but it's not THAT bad, and Harbaugh would be able to turn this recruiting thing around.

Third, the family thing... I think a good bit of that has been played up by writers in the Bay Area, who haven't exactly been impartial. Sure, San Francisco is nice. But would a pathologically competitive guy like Harbaugh rate it as more than a minor contributing factor? I doubt it. And this brings up the main reason why I think Harbaugh's best move is to take Michigan's offer. He's a little too insane for the NFL. I've always thought this, which is why his success in San Francisco surprised me as much as it did, but Harbaugh is NUTS. Andrew Sharp wrote this yesterday better than I could, but the gist of it is Harbaugh's brand of crazy plays well in the NCAA. It gets wearisome in the NFL, as the 49ers are finding out.

Harbaugh MAY choose the NFL. There are some good jobs that should be opening up on Black Monday, and the NFL is big time. He hasn't won his Super Bowl yet, so that may be bothering him. But Michigan made a REAL offer this time, one that would soothe his ego and would be comparable to anything an NFL team could throw out there. It's not an offer that suggests Michigan is taking him for granted. It's just right, and I believe it was made at just the right time. I think college is a better venue for Harbaugh's style. Whether he takes that into consideration or not is up to him, but there is nothing not to like about the way U of M has conducted their pursuit of Harbaugh so far.

***

The Lions opponent this week is the Bears, who decided to take the "throw stuff at the wall and hope something sticks" strategy by benching QB Jay Cutler for Jimmy Clausen. This is really crazy, considering the fact that Cutler is the same guy he's always been and the team surrounding him isn't playing very well. Not that Cutler's been stellar, but come on. I know he stunk on Monday night, but his season as a whole looks much like his previous 4 seasons.

Jimmy Clausen has thrown exactly 9 passes as a Chicago Bear, completing 3 of them. He's thrown a total of 308 over his 5 year career, and he's facing the #2 defense in football. It has all the feeling of sending a lamb out to fight off the wolves. Incredibly the line on this game didn't move much, either because of the very public scorn held for Cutler or because the Lions offense hasn't looked good in most of their games.

Say it with me: WINNING ON SUNDAY WILL CLINCH A PLAYOFF SPOT.