Monday, December 15, 2014

2014 NFL Season's Sun is Setting

The Lions managed to take care of business at home in the least-convincing way possible. Again, the offense struggled to move the ball against a defense that was better than terrible, and the Lion defense got off to another SLOW start until Teddy Bridgewater sailed a pass to Glover Quinn.



That play led to THIS touchdown, the only one of the game. Minnesota got the ball back, and on Bridgewater's very next pass attempt, this happened:


Despite getting the ball on the opponent's 32, Detroit had to settle for a FG, ending the 1st half. The 2nd half featured 2 more FG's from Detroit (Matt Prater was a busy dude), and a chip-shot Minnesota FG that was blocked by Jason Jones, probably the play of the game. Detroit had the ball, 1:56 left. A first down ends the game. The Lions opted for the ultra conservative approach, which is infuriating but probably fine, given the way the defense was playing.

With no timeouts, Bridgewater managed to get to the 50 with 1 sec on the clock. To my way of thinking, Minnesota had 2 options at this point - throw a hail mary or run some kind of hook & ladder play (I'm a HUGE fan of Boise State's 2007 Fiesta Bowl version of the hook & ladder, don't know why I never see it anymore). Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer chose option C) None of the Above, and had his kicker (who had already missed a 53-yarder & had a 26-yarder blocked) attempt a 68-yard FG, which would have broken the NFL record by 4 yards (held by Lions kicker Matt Prater, no less). The kick landed 10 yards shy, meaning he probably missed by about 15 yards.

The lack of offensive production was disturbing, and this defense has developed a nasty habit of staking the other team to an early lead. Minnesota actually out-gained Detroit, and the Vikes had the edge in every statistical category except turnovers (2-0), sacks (0-4), and points (14-16). The turnovers and the missed/blocked kicks (which really are like turnovers themselves) were the difference. Now the Lions can cement a post-season berth with a win over the Bears in Chicago next week.

***

Speaking of post-season berths, the Packers' loss to Buffalo yesterday opened the door a crack for the Lions. With 1 more Packers loss or 2 wins by Detroit (the last coming vs. Green Bay @ Lambeau, where they haven't won in 23 years), the Lions would secure one of the top 2 spots in the NFC. At the moment they have the #2 spot and own the NFC North due to the head to head tie-breaker with GB. Again, they play the Pack one more time, so all this is moot pending wins in Chicago and in Green Bay.

This link breaks down the playoff picture re: the Lions a bit more, but think of it this way: The MAGIC NUMBER for the Lions to make the playoffs is 1 WIN. The MAGIC NUMBER for a 1st round bye/home field is 2 (either a win by Detroit & a loss by GB or 2 wins by Detroit). To finish as the top seed in the NFC, Detroit needs to win out, Arizona needs to lose out, and Seattle would need to lose to St. Louis in week 17 (that ain't happening).


Detroit's most important game coming up SHOULD be the week 17 game at Lambeau, but it's actually next week at Soldier Field. This team HAS to secure a playoff berth. The #2 seed would be nice, but I don't think they deserve it. The upcoming Bears game has all the marks of a trap game. One thing Caldwell has done well this year is have the team focused on the NEXT GAME, so I feel good about their chances of not getting caught in the trap (for the record, a Jim Schwartz team ABSOLUTELY would fall into the trap game). Green Bay is looming, but the Lions will be scouting the Bears tonight vs. the Saints (who run an offense similar to Detroit's). The Lions will be watching, and hopefully learning the right lessons from that game.

The sun is setting on this season. Will Detroit ride off or sit in the cold?

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