Happy Harbaugh Day

To understand the Michigan fan experience about the Harbaugh hire, think about it this way: it's a lot like LeBron coming back to Cleveland for the Cavs fans. The state of the football program is in disarray, from a fan perspective we were HARBAUGH OR BUST, and we got Harbaugh (no, not THAT Harbaugh... Silly freep...).
 

 
Jim Harbaugh has a bit of a chore ahead of him. The program is pretty talent-bereft on the offensive side of the ball, and nowhere is that more evident than at the QB position. Harbaugh is a great recruiter (remember that Andrew Luck dude?) and a pretty good developer of QBs, but this doesn't get fixed in one offseason. The defense looks better, although they lose their best player, Jake Ryan, in the draft. Hopefully Jabrill Peppers is healthy for 2015.
 
My wife asked me why this Harbaugh guy was such a big deal, and I found myself oddly at a loss for words for a moment. So, why IS this Harbaugh guy such a big deal? First, he has a long history with the team, going back to when he was 10 years-old and his family moved to Ann Arbor so his dad could be Bo Schembechler's DBs coach. He lived in Ann Arbor for about 6 years, played some HS football at Pioneer, and pretty much idolized Bo (this is like mashed potatoes & gravy to Wolverines fans, we eat this stuff up). He was a good college QB, finishing 3rd in Heisman voting, but never took off in the NFL. Still, he had a 14 year career and then went on to coaching.
 
Harbaugh started out as an unpaid assistant at Western Kentucky while Jim was still playing in the pros, mainly scouting & recruiting high school players for his dad. After retiring from the NFL, Jim was a QB coach in Oakland when they last went to the Super Bowl, and then took the HC job at the University of San Diego, finishing 29-6 in 3 years there. He then took on a Stanford team from 1-11 the year before he got there to 12-1 in 4 years. Harbaugh moved onto the NFL, taking over a 49ers team that had been floundering for several years and had immediate success. The signs were there at the beginning of the 2014 season that relationship between Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers front office had soured, and they decided to part ways at the end of the season, citing "philosophical differences"...

I've got a good friend who's getting his doctorate in philosophy, and I want to ask him what these differences could be. Like, was 49ers CEO Jed York totally into Relativism and Harbaugh was all, "Dude, I can't coach for a guy who doesn't believe in Natural Law, I'm outie-5"?

...Anyway, Harbaugh has a) STRONG ties to the University of Michigan, b) is one of the 5 best coaches in all of football, and c) has great name recognition on top of already being a great recruiter. Saying Michigan knocked this one out of the park is like saying Giancarlo Stanton hits homeruns. They didn't knock this out, they crushed it. Obliterated it.
 

 
 Michigan fans are giddy all over. Players love this dude. He's intense to the point that he deserves his picture on this t shirt...

...which means it's not always a smooth ride, but he'll take you to the top.

The Lions step in it, Harbaugh is a lock, and good Pistons highlights???

First things first - the Lions looked out of sorts for most of the game and convincingly dropped their 24th game in a row at Lambeau Field. They needed to be crisp and limit mistakes. Well, Stafford was wildly inaccurate on all but 3 drives, special teams gave up a punt return TD, they coughed up the ball on a crucial drive, and they committed 10 penalties. They didn't put pressure on Rodgers, they didn't stop the run, and they ONCE AGAIN struggled to move the ball on offense. You don't beat good teams playing like that.
 

Detroit's special teams have been a problem all year. The missed kicks have gotten most of the attention, but punt and kick coverage have been pretty bad all year, and the kick return unit doesn't block anybody. In this game they gave up a punt return TD, they had a kickoff go out of bounds at the 9 (giving GB the ball at the 40, which led to a TD), and they had a holding call on a punt return that was kicked out of bounds (the call was negligible, but it gave the Lions terrible field position which led to the safety). On the plus side, they did have a blocked FG...
 
Stafford was the biggest culprit in this one. Yes, the defense surprisingly hemmoraged yards to Eddie Lacy of all people, but 9 of GB's 30 points were scored via punt return and a safety. Additionally, the Stafford/Bell fumble gave the Packers a REALLY short field to work with for another TD, so I'd argue at least half of GB's 30 points are not the defense. On the flip, Stafford was ABYSMAL. At one point he had 8 straight incompletions. And these weren't your garden variety incompletions (drops, tight defense, throw-aways, etc.). He air-mailed a sideline throw to Golden Tate so bad that Tate didn't even put a hand up. He fired passes into the dirt, five yards in front of his intended target. The only good thing he did during that stretch was to be so bad that even the GB defensive backs couldn't catch anything.
 
Stafford DID have 3 relatively good stretches of play. On Detroit's 3 scoring drives Stafford completed 13 of 17 passes for 157 yards. That means the entire rest of the day he was 7 for 24 for 60 yards. I blame the fumble more on Joique Bell than Stafford, but the safety was a really bad decision by him, and both sacks were 100% on Stafford.

Detroit's defensive line had a pretty bad day. Suh deserves to be suspended for "accidentally" stepping on Rodgers, but I suspect he won't be. Suh looked out of position on several of Eddie Lacy's runs on the first drive and the line failed to get any pressure on Rodgers when he was in the game. The one sack was of backup QB Matt Flynn, and the defense generated 2 QB hits total, despite the fact that Rodgers could do little more than limp around when he was out there.

The Suh thing bears mentioning. You could argue it was an accident right up until he put his whole weight on Rodgers' leg. I think the first step was accidental, but when he felt Rodgers' ankle underneath, Suh tried to get a little extra in and stepped on the calf. I think it's 50/50 whether he'll miss the next game, but if he does it'll probably lead to a Lions loss vs. Dallas in the first round. It SHOULD cost Suh money off his next contract, especially if he misses a playoff game, but more likely he just gets fined and then gets his JJ Watt contract. Looking back on that 2010 draft, I'd much rather the Lions had taken Gerald McCoy. Suh is a better player and McCoy has had his injury issues, but Suh has cost the Lions A LOT with his dirty play and will most likely leave Detroit for a LOT of money elsewhere. I would love it if the Lions could hang onto Suh, but I will never love Suh as a player. Too dirty and too selfish.

--Update: since writing this, Suh was suspended for stepping on Rodgers and will miss the Lions' playoff game in Dallas, pending his appeal. This sums up my opinion of Suh right now:

***

The BIG NEWS re: sports in the Mitten were the reports that Jim Harbaugh accepted Michigan's generous offer (and flattering courtship process) to become the Wolverines' Head Coach. Michigan fans have been slobbering over this guy for a while to the point where they/we look kind of like the dog in those cartoons where some kid tries to brush its teeth & then everyone thinks the dog has rabies... The "It's Happening" thing became A THING, thanks in part to the good people at mgoblog.com.

One of the funnier aspects of this whole process has been the reporting of it. Basically every national NFL reporter acted like Harbaugh was going to the Raiders and Michigan was just a pipe dream. A couple of the SF local reporters were downright rude about it on twitter. In fact, the only people who thought Harbaugh to Michigan might happen were the local people around Detroit & Ann Arbor, who everyone else wrote off as wishful dreamers. As Harbaugh started looking like more of a lock to go to Ann Arbor, it was pretty funny to watch all the naysayers who cover the NFL trip over themselves while backtracking.

I get that all things being equal, an NFL HC job is a more prestigious appointment than a college HC job. There are several reasons why that didn't apply in this particular case.

1. This is Michigan (fergodsakes). Brady Hoke was a bit dense, but he was right about the fact that Michigan is one of the 5 top HC destinations in college football.
2. Harbaugh wouldn't limit his coaching opportunities to the Bay Area. A lot was made of his family's love for the Bay Area playing into his decision to spurn Michigan for the 49ers job 4 years ago. I never REALLY bought that. Sure, it's nice, but he has connections in Michigan too. I always thought that Dave Brandon & the WAY Michigan conducted themselves during the coaching search had more to do with it.
3. Really? Oakland was his most likely destination? Only if locationLocationLOCATION was his #1 priority. The 49ers weren't about to let him go to Oakland for nothing, and what's so great about the Raiders anyway? That franchise has been a dumpster fire ever since they lost the Super Bowl in 2002.
4. Harbaugh would get CONTROL. The dude is a freak when it comes to that, and it's impossible to have the level of control in the NFL that he would have running his program at Michigan.

Adam Schefter was on Mike & Mike this morning and said that while it looks pretty certain Harbaugh is going to Michigan, he isn't going to rule out the Raiders until the ink is on the contract. Golic asked if the fact that the 49ers let him go indicates a definite move to Michigan, since they could get compensation if he had decided to go to an NFL team while still under contract. Schefter said no, but I don't buy that. My theory is that the 49ers let Harbaugh go with the understanding that he would be Michigan's HC next year. The official announcement is Tuesday, but this looks like it was in the bag weeks ago.

***

Last week I was dubious about the "addition by subtraction" merits of outright releasing Josh Smith. Detroit has only played 2 games since then, but the early reviews are HOLY CRAP THIS TEAM IS WAY BETTER NOW. The first game was vs. the Pacers (not a great team, but the Pistons have lost to some terrible teams this year) and Detroit responded by scoring a season-high 119 points and won in convincing fashion. Ok, the Pacers are no great shakes. Their next game was in Cleveland.

A team record 17 MADE threes, and some pretty good D, holding the Cavs to shooting .378% from the field. LeBron's line doesn't look too bad, 17 pts, 10 boards and 7 dimes. Not a lot of points for him but nearly a triple-double. The problem was he got his 17 points by shooting 5-19 and his 7 assists came with 7 turnovers. After a rough 1st quarter, the Pistons turned this one into a laugher, winning 103-80. The 80 points posted by Cleveland represent the lowest total of any Piston opponent this year.
The Cavs were missing Kyrie Irving with a knee injury and Anderson Varejao is out for the year with a torn achilles, but they're still solid with LeBron and Love (if it was possible to bet on whether or not Varejao would get seriously injured before the first 3rd of the season was over, I'd have made some coin).  It remains to be seen whether these last 2 games have been a blip on the radar or an indication of more to come, but SVG looks like he's actually running his system now.

Lions V Packers... The Showdown!

I was in 6th grade the last time the Lions won at Lambeau Field. The #1 song at the time was Black or White by Michael Jackson. Hook was #1 at the box office. George H. W. Bush had a little over a year left in his presidency. In other words, it was a while ago.

This one is for all the bananas. A tie or Detroit win will give them the NFC North and at least the #2 seed in the NFC with a 1st round bye. A loss and they are most likely playing the Cowboys in Dallas in the Wild Card round. I'd give Detroit decent odds to upset Dallas in round 1, but it's obviously better to have the bye and home field. Plus, there is a lot of organizational baggage the Lions could clear out should they beat Green Bay on the frozen tundra...

The line currently favors Green Bay by 8, which is fair. The Packers aren't the same team the Lions beat in September. The offense and the defense are both better. This Packers team beat New England, the team that gave the Lions their most one-sided loss this season. Aaron Rodgers is the favorite to win the NFL MVP this year, they have a 1,000-yard rusher in Eddie Lacy and two 1,000-yard receivers in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Meanwhile, the Lions have only scored 24 points or better 5 times this year. Starting center Dominic Raiola is suspended, and while rookie backup Travis Swanson has gotten some PT this year, it was at guard.

So what do the Lions have going for them? Well, the one blip on Green Bay's resumé of late is their loss to Buffalo. The Bills, like the Lions, are a tough matchup for the Packers defensively. They have a good D line that pressures the QB. Detroit's corners aren't as good as Buffalo's, but Slay and Mathis aren't chopped liver either. Detroit is ranked 3rd against their opponent's #1 WR and 7th against their #2 WR. Glover Quin has 7 picks and will most likely represent the Lions in the Pro Bowl. Rodgers doesn't throw interceptions, especially at Lambeau, but the Lions have recorded at least 1 pick in the last 12 games since (dun dun DUNNNN) the last time they faced the Packers.

The Lions' running game has looked better and better every week. Joique Bell has posted 4.0 yards per carry or better the last 4 straight weeks, culminating at 5.7 YPC last week at Soldier Field. Reggie Bush had his best game of the season, posting a 7.7 YPC mark vs. Chicago as well, and GB's run defense is worse than Chicago's.  

Lastly, Aaron Rodgers has been limited in practice with a strained calf. This probably will have little impact on the game, but on the other hand... Rodgers is a pretty mobile QB. He's not Russell Wilson, but he extends plays with his feet and is a threat to run. He doesn't get sacked often, despite having a spotty O line, and he's run for 255 yards (7th among QBs). If he can't move so well on Sunday, the Lions are going to punish him. Rodgers could be in for some SERIOUS trouble if he can't push off and loses some velocity on his throws. This is all quite a stretch, however, since nobody in GB seems too concerned about the injury.

If the Lions can run the ball effectively and limit Rodgers on the other side, they've got a shot. If they don't and lose, hey, they're still in the playoffs, right?

Merry Christmas for Pistons Fans (and everybody else too)

Heading into the Christmas holiday I don't want to spend TOO much time on sports, but the Pistons just RELEASED Josh Smith yesterday and that bears talking about. Smith was starting at PF, under contract for $14M/yr through 2017. Detroit is responsible for all of that, offset by whatever new contract he's given when he's picked up off of waivers.

We don't know enough about SVG the GM to know if he's the type of guy who'd set fire to a $100 if he didn't like the look of it, but it's pretty rare that any GM gives up something for nothing. I'm assuming that either there was some issue in the locker room that required immediate action, or SVG is in the middle of working out a big trade that would involve taking on a ton of salary & needed to clear space. The locker room theory is the most likely.

Another possibility that I'm exploring is Stan Van Gundy was told by his doctor that he was risking a heart attack/Scanners-like head explosion by keeping Josh on the team. I think this is probably less likely than the locker room poison theory and more likely that the huge trade theory.

Ding, dong, Smith is gone... Now what? He was a shooting disaster (his .417 True Shooting % was 3rd worst on the team), but he was the 3rd best passer and 2nd best defender. Losing him probably helps the offense, but it hurts the defense equally. I don't know if I buy the "addition by subtraction" angle, unless this move somehow spurs Greg Monroe to start playing for real now. Does SVG swing a deal to bring in someone good? Maybe a draft pick? Or an expiring contract? This move was too weird, so I'm assuming Van Gundy is not done.

***

Moving away from sports and into a holiday mood, I'm currently putting together a mix cd to listen to in the car as my family will be bouncing around The Mitten over the next couple of days. I'm trying to avoid standards that we hear all the time, like Nat King Cole's The Christmas Song, or Bing Crosby's White Christmas. They're classics, universally loved, and everybody always mentions them. So, avoiding the so-called "standards," here are the songs that make my list, in no particular order:

God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen/We Three Kings
Barenaked Ladies feat. Sarah McLachlan

This song was originally released in 2000, but somehow I never heard it until last year. It has a bouncy, synchopated beat that reminds me of the intro to Jeeves & Wooster. Anyway, my wife and I both love it.

Someday At Christmas
Stevie Wonder

Somehow this version was NOT the most popular version of this song on iTunes, due to some dude named Justin Bieber doing a cover. This is a traveshamockery, but since this is Christmas I'll refrain from writing the people at iTunes a sternly-worded email or something. Just know, Stevie's version is THE version, Jack Johnson's version is aight, you know, if you want variety. Bieber's version is like a watered down version of Stevie's, so I don't know why you would pick that one unless you were under 15 years old & didn't know who Stevie was.

White Christmas
The Drifters

Like many of my generation I was first exposed to this song when Kevin McAllister lip synched to it in front of the mirror in Home Alone. This is also a bit sad for me, since the deep-voiced dude that opens the song always reminded me of Fred Hartwig, a tall bass from the choir in the church I grew up attending. Fred died recently, and this song will always remind me of him a little.

Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas
The Carpenters

Karen Carpenter's voice is like buttered honey.

You're a Mean One, Mr. Grinch
Thurl Ravenscroft

Love this song. The Grinch is classic, and this song makes The Grinch Who Stole Christmas my favorite holiday movie.

The Wassail Song
Orla Fallon, David Archuleta, Meav, & Mark Willis

I'm not particularly tied to this version, it was just the best version I could find. We sang this when I was in 5th grade choir and I always liked it. It's a traditional caroling (wassail means the same as carol) song, and the singers would be let inside to warm themselves & sip from the wassail bowl, which would have some kind of mulled wine or something. Sounds good to me.

Christmas in Hollis
Run DMC

Alright, this one isn't making the playlist, but I had to go out strong. Love this one. Nothing says Christmas like Adidas track suits, gold rope, and a phat beat. Merry Christmas y'all.

Lions clinch the playoffs, then celebrate by nearly losing

The Lions avoided the trap. BARELY. Philly lost their game Saturday night, clinching a playoff spot for Detroit and making their game vs. the Bears virtually meaningless. Detroit came out lethargic, throwing 2 red zone picks and committing 2 gaffes on punt returns (a roughing the kicker & a muffed punt recovered by Chicago) that led to 14 points by the Bears. A blocked FG didn't help either. Then, with a little over 7 minutes left in the game, Joique Bell went to work.

Their run defense isn't actually that bad (ranked #16 overall through week 15), but the Lions had the most rushing yards in any game this season. Reggie Bush put together his best game of the year with 55 yds on 7 carries and a TD. Joique had 74 yards on 13 carries and a TD as well. And of course the defense stepped up...

Suh was The Man. 2 sacks, 3 QB hits and a pass defensed. PAY HIM. This defense isn't half as good (#1 vs. the run) if he bolts for NY or wherever. They held Chicago to 263 yards and of the 14 points that the Bears scored, the punt return team was responsible for 100% of that. Clausen looked a lot better than he really was, never throwing much farther than 7 yards down field. Forte was basically held in the box. Would they have been better with Cutler? Tough to say. He's more talented than Clausen, but he takes a lot off the table too (18 picks, 12 fumbles... 12 FUMBLES???). Clausen had to deal with some drops, but Cutler had put up 9 out of 14 performances superior to what Clausen did yesterday.

Stafford stunk, throwing 2 red zone picks and standing his way into 4 sacks. I can't blame the line for 3 of those, by the way. Raiola will miss the last game of the season because he's a giant db. We all know this. He's stunk this year anyway, so it'll give us a chance to look at his backup, Swanson, at the C position. Anyway, the Lions trudged through another unimpressive win and need to beat Green Bay next week if they want home field & a first round bye. Otherwise, they'll most likely see Dallas in Dallas in the first round.

Michigan shows its hand, and it's a good one

Michigan has offered Jim Harbaugh the head coaching job for somewhere between 6 years $48M and $49M. At $8M - $8.2M/yr, that would make Harbaugh the highest paid coach in the NCAA and one of the highest paid in all of sports (there are a couple soccer coaches making $10M+, but there are very few coaches in an sport making at least $8M).  Adam Schefter, who is rarely wrong, doesn't think it likely Harbaugh would go back to coaching college ball, but says he's at least "considering" the offer. In Ann Arbor there was much rejoicing.

Schefter is a Michigan alum, and his rooting interest is for Harbaugh to take the Michigan job (Schefter has openly said this). I get the feeling this is more Schefter's opinion than something he heard from Harbaugh's camp. The argument for Harbaugh taking an NFL job over the Michigan job is supported by the belief that a) an NFL job is more prestigious than any college job, b) there are a number of (presumeably) open NFL jobs that are better situations than Michigan is right now, and c) Harbaugh's family would prefer to stay in the Bay Area. Let me handle these one at a time.

First, an NFL job is OBVIOUSLY more prestigious than any NCAA job, right? Well, I'm not so sure. Yes, the NFL is king, but the largest NFL stadium is in Texas and seats 4,780 fewer people than The Big House (Officially, anyway. Unofficially, Michigan Stadium can cram in about 10,000 more people than the Cowboys can). Despite being in decline over the last decade, Michigan is still considered one of the most prestigious jobs in college football. Of the potential NFL jobs out there, only Washington, the Jets, and possibly Chicago have similar prestige to the Michigan job.

Second, and this is a fair point, but Harbaugh could take a job like the Miami or Atlanta job and be in the playoffs next year. Michigan is pretty talent bereft right now, and top recruits are decommitting like crazy. I'd say Miami, Chicago, and Atlanta are all pretty talented teams, while Michigan needs a lot of work. Here's the thing: a Harbaugh rebuild would take a year, two at most. Stanford was 1-11 the year before Jim Harbaugh took over (it was their 5th straight losing season). His first year they were 4-8, then 5-7, then 8-5, and finally 12-1. Well, Michigan finished 5-7 in 2014. They actually had a decent defense, and outside of OSU and MSU, their division is weak. I expect them to be record-strong in year 1 of a potential Harbaugh reign (say a 8-5 team that would be 6-8 in the SEC). I expect them to beat OSU and be actually strong (make the playoff) by year 4 or 5. Michigan is in a bad way right now, but it's not THAT bad, and Harbaugh would be able to turn this recruiting thing around.

Third, the family thing... I think a good bit of that has been played up by writers in the Bay Area, who haven't exactly been impartial. Sure, San Francisco is nice. But would a pathologically competitive guy like Harbaugh rate it as more than a minor contributing factor? I doubt it. And this brings up the main reason why I think Harbaugh's best move is to take Michigan's offer. He's a little too insane for the NFL. I've always thought this, which is why his success in San Francisco surprised me as much as it did, but Harbaugh is NUTS. Andrew Sharp wrote this yesterday better than I could, but the gist of it is Harbaugh's brand of crazy plays well in the NCAA. It gets wearisome in the NFL, as the 49ers are finding out.

Harbaugh MAY choose the NFL. There are some good jobs that should be opening up on Black Monday, and the NFL is big time. He hasn't won his Super Bowl yet, so that may be bothering him. But Michigan made a REAL offer this time, one that would soothe his ego and would be comparable to anything an NFL team could throw out there. It's not an offer that suggests Michigan is taking him for granted. It's just right, and I believe it was made at just the right time. I think college is a better venue for Harbaugh's style. Whether he takes that into consideration or not is up to him, but there is nothing not to like about the way U of M has conducted their pursuit of Harbaugh so far.

***

The Lions opponent this week is the Bears, who decided to take the "throw stuff at the wall and hope something sticks" strategy by benching QB Jay Cutler for Jimmy Clausen. This is really crazy, considering the fact that Cutler is the same guy he's always been and the team surrounding him isn't playing very well. Not that Cutler's been stellar, but come on. I know he stunk on Monday night, but his season as a whole looks much like his previous 4 seasons.

Jimmy Clausen has thrown exactly 9 passes as a Chicago Bear, completing 3 of them. He's thrown a total of 308 over his 5 year career, and he's facing the #2 defense in football. It has all the feeling of sending a lamb out to fight off the wolves. Incredibly the line on this game didn't move much, either because of the very public scorn held for Cutler or because the Lions offense hasn't looked good in most of their games.

Say it with me: WINNING ON SUNDAY WILL CLINCH A PLAYOFF SPOT.

2014 NFL Season's Sun is Setting

The Lions managed to take care of business at home in the least-convincing way possible. Again, the offense struggled to move the ball against a defense that was better than terrible, and the Lion defense got off to another SLOW start until Teddy Bridgewater sailed a pass to Glover Quinn.

That play led to THIS touchdown, the only one of the game. Minnesota got the ball back, and on Bridgewater's very next pass attempt, this happened:

Despite getting the ball on the opponent's 32, Detroit had to settle for a FG, ending the 1st half. The 2nd half featured 2 more FG's from Detroit (Matt Prater was a busy dude), and a chip-shot Minnesota FG that was blocked by Jason Jones, probably the play of the game. Detroit had the ball, 1:56 left. A first down ends the game. The Lions opted for the ultra conservative approach, which is infuriating but probably fine, given the way the defense was playing.

With no timeouts, Bridgewater managed to get to the 50 with 1 sec on the clock. To my way of thinking, Minnesota had 2 options at this point - throw a hail mary or run some kind of hook & ladder play (I'm a HUGE fan of Boise State's 2007 Fiesta Bowl version of the hook & ladder, don't know why I never see it anymore). Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer chose option C) None of the Above, and had his kicker (who had already missed a 53-yarder & had a 26-yarder blocked) attempt a 68-yard FG, which would have broken the NFL record by 4 yards (held by Lions kicker Matt Prater, no less). The kick landed 10 yards shy, meaning he probably missed by about 15 yards.

The lack of offensive production was disturbing, and this defense has developed a nasty habit of staking the other team to an early lead. Minnesota actually out-gained Detroit, and the Vikes had the edge in every statistical category except turnovers (2-0), sacks (0-4), and points (14-16). The turnovers and the missed/blocked kicks (which really are like turnovers themselves) were the difference. Now the Lions can cement a post-season berth with a win over the Bears in Chicago next week.

***

Speaking of post-season berths, the Packers' loss to Buffalo yesterday opened the door a crack for the Lions. With 1 more Packers loss or 2 wins by Detroit (the last coming vs. Green Bay @ Lambeau, where they haven't won in 23 years), the Lions would secure one of the top 2 spots in the NFC. At the moment they have the #2 spot and own the NFC North due to the head to head tie-breaker with GB. Again, they play the Pack one more time, so all this is moot pending wins in Chicago and in Green Bay.

This link breaks down the playoff picture re: the Lions a bit more, but think of it this way: The MAGIC NUMBER for the Lions to make the playoffs is 1 WIN. The MAGIC NUMBER for a 1st round bye/home field is 2 (either a win by Detroit & a loss by GB or 2 wins by Detroit). To finish as the top seed in the NFC, Detroit needs to win out, Arizona needs to lose out, and Seattle would need to lose to St. Louis in week 17 (that ain't happening).

Detroit's most important game coming up SHOULD be the week 17 game at Lambeau, but it's actually next week at Soldier Field. This team HAS to secure a playoff berth. The #2 seed would be nice, but I don't think they deserve it. The upcoming Bears game has all the marks of a trap game. One thing Caldwell has done well this year is have the team focused on the NEXT GAME, so I feel good about their chances of not getting caught in the trap (for the record, a Jim Schwartz team ABSOLUTELY would fall into the trap game). Green Bay is looming, but the Lions will be scouting the Bears tonight vs. the Saints (who run an offense similar to Detroit's). The Lions will be watching, and hopefully learning the right lessons from that game.

The sun is setting on this season. Will Detroit ride off or sit in the cold?

Don't sleep on the Vikings' Special Teams

The Lions are playing their 3rd of 4 straight games that they SHOULD win. I keep capitalizing "SHOULD" because a) it's the NFL and crazy things happen (like Arizona losing to Atlanta, or Washington beating ANYONE), and b) the Lions don't always beat the teams they SHOULD beat, especially in December. I'm going to continue to not take wins for granted until such time as the Lions string together a Patriots-like dynasty of multiple championships and yearly playoff appearances. I'm not holding my breath.

Anyway, this iteration of an opponent who is overlookable but should NOT be overlooked is Minnesota. The Vikings are on a 2 game winning streak (like Detroit) and at 6-7 aren't TERRIBLE. Their defense is middle of the road (17th in DVOA), slightly better vs. the pass than vs. the run. They do a pretty good job getting after the QB, although that's mainly due to Everson Griffen (12 sacks). The Lions' offensive line is in the best shape it's been since game 1, so hopefully they can keep him in check. On the flip side, Minnesota's O line has given up 40 sacks, which is a lot considering how reliant on the run they are. The last time these 2 teams faced each other, the Lions' D line feasted on Teddy Bridgewater to the tune of 8 sacks and 13 QB hits.

Speaking of Bridgewater, he's had a couple of nice games the past 2 weeks. The last time he saw the Lions, he ate a lot of turf & finished with a 2.5 QBR, 41.3 passer rating. The last 2 games he's had QBRs of 84.1 & 72.4, with passer ratings of 120.7 & 117.7. He was sacked 3 times in each game. The Lions SHOULD put more pressure than that on him, but Suh has missed the last 2 practices with the flu. If he's not good to go, the complexion of this game changes dramatically. Despite having a poor line, Bridgewater is pretty elusive. The Lions have been pretty good at tracking down elusive QBs this year, but if Suh isn't in there blowing up the RG, expect some of this:

I REALLY hope Suh is healthy for Sunday's game. The silver lining to Suh missing the game would be a) Minnesota is bad enough that the Lions should be able to beat them without Suh, and b) we could get a preview of how bad the defense would be without him. Suh may well be gone after next year. He's looking for JJ Watt money, and the Lions aren't well-positioned to give it to him. I think they HAVE to if they want to continue having a good defense, but right now that isn't the concensus opinion. If he misses the game and the defense looks bad, the offseason will feature a bunch of Take My Money memes with with either Martin Mayhew or Martha Ford's face pasted over Fry's.

Detroit's offense looked pretty good the last 2 weeks against some bad defenses, although Tampa's D is only marginally worse than Minnesota's. I'm expecting a lot more Joique Bell. The last 2 weeks he's been pretty good, getting 174 yards & 3 TDs out of 41 carries, plus 66 yds receiving & another TD on 7 catches. Reggie Bush still isn't 100%, and he doesn't look like the type of guy to get yards behind this line. Bell looks like Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch right now.

One thing to watch out for - Special Teams. Minnesota had 2 blocked punts vs. Carolina, and they have the #10 ranked Special Teams unit in the NFL. Detroit is ranked 30th out of 32, although much of that is due to their crappy FG kicking situation that looks a lot better now. Still, watch out for this stuff:

And they've got some pretty sweet fake punt sets too. Don't sleep on this. Minnesota is the type of team that likes to go for it. Their offense isn't very good, so they have to find points wherever they can. This isn't to say they go for it on 4th down all the time, however. The Vikes have only attempted 9 4th-down conversions (Detroit is actually one of the least conservative teams, at least numbers-wise, with 15 attempts). Just... watch out.

***

In other news, this is depressing:
 

 

That ain't pretty. The way the big recruits are bailing, this doesn't look to improve any time soon. Much will depend on who Michigan hires as the new HC. If they end up with Harbaugh, I expect a pretty quick turnaround. If they get a guy like Dan Mullens, less quick but still pretty good. If they end up with another whodat, expect a downfall of Ellerbe-ian proportions.

 

On the bright side, can't get worse, right? RIGHT???

Dombrowski makes his move

I was going to skip posting today and load up tomorrow with a Lions-Vikes preview, but...

Yep, the Tigers just traded Rick Porcello to Boston for LF Yoenis Cespedes and 2 bullpen guys (Alex Wilson has 2 yrs in the Bigs, Gabe Speier is a 19 yr-old lefty still in the minors). Then Dombrowski shored up the rotation by trading Suarez and a minor-leaguer to Cincinnati for Alfredo Simon. Ok.

PROS

Cespedes - Adds another big bat to the lineup, and some better OF defense. He'll play left field, allowing Martinez to shift over to his natural position in right. He's got a great arm, he's got power (winning the 2013 & 2014 HR derbys), and decent speed.
Simon - Represents some cost savings from Porcello without losing prodution ($5.1M projected 2015 salary vs. Porcello's $12.2M). Last year he finished with 196 innings, 15 wins, 127 Ks, a 3.44 ERA,  and a 1.207 WHIP. These numbers are basically identical to Porcello's for $7.1M less.

CONS

Cespedes - His OF arm is great, but he doesn't get the greatest read on the ball and can look a bit like Delmon Young running around. His arm has made up for it from time to time, but he's not winning any Gold Gloves out there. He doesn't hit for average & strikes out a lot, so he doesn't fill that #2 spot in the lineup that we need. He's hit some BOMBS, but his highest HR total for a season was 26. He should be hitting 30+.
Simon - He's 33, so he's 7 years older than Porcello. He's had some legal trouble here and there, some of which he's still dealing with. Most of his career he's been a reliever and a spot starter. Last year was his first season full time in the rotation, so we don't know if he can hold that production up.

THE VERDICT

I'm going to call this one a win. Would I have preferred a trade for Justin Upton instead of Cespedes? Yes, but the Tigers would've had to give up a lot more than Porcello to get him. Cespedes is going to be huge, and Simon should be a solid #4 in this rotation. I don't know who bats 2nd in this lineup (Gose? Iglesias? Castellanos???), but the 3-4-5-6 spots in this lineup are going to have pitchers pooping their pants. I like the bench better now, I like the defense better, and I like the lineup depth. Simon LOOKS like a zero-sum substitution for Porcello, at least production-wise.

The Tigers still need to add bullpen help. The prospective closer/setup guy (Soria & Nathan, in some order) would both need to bounce back from a down year (I don't see that happening with Nathan), Bruce Rondon and Joel Hanrahan would need to bounce back from severe injuries that cost them last year (more than that in Hanrahan's case), and the younger guys (Krol, Hardy, etc.) would need to step up. If only half of those things happen, we're in trouble with the bullpen. I'm not comfortable with that, and I hope Dombrowski isn't either.

RIGHT NOW, this team is better than the 2014 team. Yes, Max Scherzer isn't coming back, and that's a big loss. But the rotation is still really good, especially if Verlander is back to normal. The defense gets MUCH better with Torii Hunter heading out and Gose, Cespedes, and Iglesias coming in. The lineup should be better also, and the bullpen is probably SLIGHTLY better, if Rondon is healthy.

Tigers behind White Sox & Indians this offseason

The White Sox & Indians have thrown down the gauntlet. The Tigers aren't going to be the prohibitive favorite to win the AL Central this year. The Royals went to the World Series, but they also lost some people. The Tigers won the division (barely) but they've lost more than they've gained so far. And now the White Sox & Indians are making moves.

Chicago is looking scariest so far, just based on their offseason. Their first move was pretty quiet, adding bullpen lefty Zach Duke (a sneaky-good signing). Then they added Adam LaRoche - incidentally, his top 3 search suggestions are "Adam LaRoche Elk", "Adam LaRoche Kills Giant Elk", and "Adam LaRoche Kills Elk", which is better than the typical athlete's search suggestions of "stats", "salary", and "wife" or "girlfriend" - a 35 yr-old 1B with decent power, not-great average, and negligible defense. He'll most likely be the regular DH and bat 4th or 5th. Then they added pitching, trading for Jeff Samardzija and signing David Robertson to close. Chicago needs another bat, but they've done a great job addressing needs so far.

Cleveland just added Brandon Moss via trade with the A's (who are weirdly selling right now, having dealt their top 3 power guys & their #2 pitcher in the past 5 months, and they're probably losing Lester, Lowrie and Gregerson in FA). Moss follows the Adam LaRoche mold, decent power, mediocre batting average, poor defense. This isn't the WOW signing like Chicago getting Samardzija and Robertson, but it fills in the gap in power at the DH spot caused by Nick Swisher falling off the cliff last season. Swisher was worth -1.0 WAR, Moss was worth 2.6 WAR. Cleveland's lineup improved by 3.6 wins. They finished 5 games behind Detroit for the Division and 3 games from making a Wild Card spot, so as minor as this signing was, it's not nothing.

Detroit's biggest move was re-signing Victor Martinez. The Anthony Gose deal barely moves the needle, the Shane Green deal moves it a little more, but I was waiting for something that could flip the script. Chicago got a CLOSER, something that's been an issue for them nearly as long as it's been an issue for the Tigers. Chicago & Cleveland's out-going talent < their in-coming talent. We can't say that about the Tigers. Scherzer is probably gone. Torii Hunter's bat hasn't been replaced in the lineup. There were talks of acquiring Cespedes for Porcello, but those talks seem to have cooled off. The Braves' Justin Upton is being dangled as trade bait and would be a GREAT fit in the lineup (solid power & average, ok speed & defense), but so far there's been no actual traction to this outside of sheer speculation.

Here's my educated guess/hope: Dombrowski is waiting to have Scherzer NEARLY locked up or else totally locked up before then swinging either a Price/Porcello for Cespedes/Upton trade. Dave Dombrowski has openly said he isn't dealing either Price or Porcello unless he has a replacement locked up. I get the feeling he'd rather trade Price (who struggled down the stretch & appears to be on the downhill side, career-wise) than Porcello (basically the opposite of my aside comment on Price), and that he wants to re-up with Scherzer.

 

Dave (btw, doesn't he look a LOT like Mr. Rogers? Maybe a cross between Mr. Rogers and Chevy Chase? Anyway...) has to know that they need another bat, right? He says he's ready to move forward with the OF as is, but I think that's just a classic GM smokescreen. Some Dombrowski headlines this offseason have been infuriating, like "Dombrowski Satisfied with 'Pen" and "No 'Gaping Hole' in OF," but when you get to his actual quotes, it's more like "We could get better, but we can win with the guys we have." Dombrowski KNOWS he needs another OF bat (preferably a #2 hitter), and he KNOWS he needs another arm in the 'pen. But he can't SAY that, or his guys will feel like he has no faith in them. As of right now, the OF features JD Martinez (who had an All Star-caliber season) in LF or RF and the other 2 spots as basically replacement-level players (Rajai Davis is a bit better than that). They hope Gose is a viable starter at CF, but he looks like a platoon player. This is not a championship level OF.

(This portion previously a bit about Dombrowski inquiring on closer Sergio Romo, mis-reported on mlbtraderumors.com. Barely held myself back from punching mlbtraderumers.com in the face for giving me false hopes. Lester has signed, the top closer on the market has signed, so I expect the rest of the pack to start falling into place.)

***

The Pistons SUCK. If Michael Buffer were introducing them, they would be the Master of Disaster, the Epitome of Incompetence, the Singularity of Sucktitude... basically, the opposite of THIS. You get it, they're bad. Their current record is 3-19 and they're on a 13 game losing streak (you math nerds out there have probably figured out that this means they were 3-6 before going in the tank), with losses to 2-18 Philly, the 4-16 T'wolves, and the 6-16 LA Lakers.

The main problem is shooting. The Pistons are the worst shooting team in the league with .404 FG% (league average is about .456%) and 2nd from the bottom in offensive efficiency. At least they start 3 GREAT rebounders, right? RIGHT? Well, Drummond is averaging just under 12, Monroe is just over 9, and Smith is just over 7 per game, but nobody else on the team averages even 4. Detroit gets out-rebounded by 1.1 per game, which isn't a ton except you expect this team to be on the other side of that equation. On top of that, they look like they're sleep-walking through games a LOT of the time (Greg Monroe ESPECIALLY).

That is the LAZIEST "show" I've ever seen on PNR defense. First, Durant could've blown by Monroe if he wanted, based on how bad his footwork was, but passing was a better option because Monroe was a FULL SECOND late rotating back. When he DID decide to rotate back, he did so with all the urgency of a guy who just heard his coach say, "Okay, everybody line up to run suicides!" He doesn't rotate back to the middle until AFTER Durant has thrown his pass, at which point he's already too late. It then takes him 4 seconds to get back into position, by which point the rest of the defense is flying around trying to cover the extra guy.

This is roughly the urgency Monroe plays on every defensive possession, on transition, when the Pistons are on offense and he doesn't have the ball... He looks like a guy who grew up to be 6'10", someone suggested he could make some money playing ball, so he took it up but never loved the game. I don't know if that's Monroe or not, but that's what he's playing like right now. Some of it might be him sulking over his contract situation, or the fact that this team was built by "Bloody Stupid" Johnson, but MAN has he been terrible.

Monroe isn't eligible to be moved for another week, but I would expect a major trade to occur over the next 2-3 weeks if SVG isn't tanking already. The Nets are reportedly selling, although that would involve taking on a TON of salary. Williams, at the position the Pistons most desperately need to upgrade, is on the decline and is owed an average of $21M thru the end of the 2016-'17 season (one of the worst contracts in the NBA, equal to Josh Smith PLUS Jodie Meeks). Brook Lopez has probably the best deal (still owed a lot at $16M/yr thru next season), but he's only marginally better than Monroe.

The Nets are maybe the only team in the league with a worse position than Detroit, since Boston owns their picks in the 2016 & 2018 drafts and has the option to swap 2017 picks with them. Without draft picks to sweeten a deal, Brooklyn is going to have to take on a LOT of that salary if they want Joe Johnson, Deron Williams, and/or Brook Lopez gone. I'd like to get Deron Williams if the Nets are willing to pay around half of the rest of what he's owed (we'd still be doing them a favor, since he's getting paid about 3 times what he's worth right now). Not sure how that trade works out or even happens, but keep an eye on those trade rumors in the next 2-3 weeks.

***

Actual GOOD NEWS in Detroit Sports: the Wings are SWEET! Pavel Datsyuk has stayed healthy and has been on a tear (22 pts in 17 games), but they also started getting better production from the Weiss-Sheahan-Franzen line (Franzen is a guy who is SO frustrating & has me yelling his name like Kirk yelling, "KHAAAAANNN!)



But Datsyuk has been the MAN, and Tomas Tatar (with 12 goals, tied for the team lead with Datsyuk & Nyquist) have been instrumental in moving the offense. The powerplay has been LOADS better this year, and they're getting more quality chances. Can we get to the playoffs already?

The Good, the Bad, and the Playoff Picture

Going into Sunday's game I was only as worried as any Lions fan might be when going into a game that they should absolutely win. In other words, I was a little worried. The Lions pulled off a scoreboard win at 34-17, but the Lions looked both good and bad at times. Instead of breaking down the whole game, I'm going to just concentrate on those good/bad aspects.

The GOOD

I can't find a video or GIF of this play, which is a shame, so let this picture and my inadequate explanation suffice. Eric Ebron had his best game as a Lion, in my opinion. The numbers look nearly identical to practically every other game in which he's caught a pass, so don't go by those. The difference is in this game he looked the most like the athletic, matchup nightmare he was purported to be. He had 2 "leap over the defender plays," the 2nd of which looked REALLY impressive. I'm not yet convinced he was a better draft pick than an OLB, a DB or Odell Beckham Jr would have been, but I'm starting to believe in Eric Ebron.

Joique Bell had a HELL of a game for the 2nd week in a row. Most of his rushes didn't go very far, but he had a 57-yd run that set this up when Tampa KNEW we were running, and his rushing TD in the 2nd quarter was a classic example of manball.

Dat D Line! Suh had another hit a couple plays earlier just like this that was flagged because he was a step late and went a little high (speculation is he'll be fined for it). This one was a legal hit and it HURT. Suh landed on McCown after the hit, and when McCown got up he looked like Apollo Creed after 1 round with Ivan Drago. Suh ended up with a sack, Levy had  2, and Fluellen, George Johnson & Ansah all had 1. The Lions defense was credited with 14 QB hits and 6 sacks, which is a LOT. McCown had his worst game of the season, not counting the game vs. ATL he wasn't able to finish due to a thumb injury. The QB pressure is back at it against the weak competition, after struggling a bit with some pretty strong competition.

Oh, and Andre Fluellen's Street Fighter "Hadouken" sack dance was pretty sweet, unlike Big Joe Fauria's "pop, lock & drop it" TD dance.

The BAD

The Lions had 9 penalties for 122 years, their worst total of the season. Against competition of this level, there's no excuse for that. Suh had his first roughing penalty of the year, but I wasn't that mad at that. There were a TON of pass interference calls, which is where most of that yardage is coming from. Darius Slay had his worst game in a while, getting called for 2 pass interference penalties for 24 & 38 yards. I had just finished saying "They aren't throwing it to Slay's side" when Vincent Jackson burned him on a drag/square-in route (what 'A' is running in this diagram) for 12 yards, then Slay was called for the PI the next play. The following series he failed to locate an underthrown ball and committed one of the dumber PI penalties you'll see. There were several uncalled pass interferences as well, most notably one by Rasheen Mathis (hard to see, but he took one of Mike Evans' hands away) on Glover Quinn's tip INT.

17 points isn't much to give up, but Detroit's D should've been able to keep it in to 10 or less. The first TD was aided by Ihedigbo fumbling his INT back over to the Bucs. Their 2nd TD was aided by Slay's PI penalty, their 2nd longest play of that drive. This game should've been 45-0.

The Lions' run blocking is HORRIBLE. I don't know how much of it is Lombardi's fault and how much of it is on the line, but Joique Bell averaged 1.5 yards per carry if you take away his 57 yard run. Taking away Reggie Bush's longest run (12 yards), he averaged 2 yards per carry. The Lions regularly get stuffed on 3rd or 4th & short. I expected a LOT better with both Warford & Reiff returning, and facing a team like Tampa.

Checkdowns. Stafford had a REALLY good game, going by the stats. Zero turnovers (even saved one by fielding & chucking Raiola's crappy snap), 300+ yards, 76.5 COMP%. So this is going to sound like nitpicking (because it is), but he settles for checkdown passes a LOT. The RB position had 11 targets vs. 15 to the WR postition. I get some of those were screen passes designed to go to Bell or Bush, but it often seems like Stafford is just dumping it off if CJ isn't open. Again, this is REALLY nitpicky, but I wish Stafford would develop more rapport with Ebron, Tate, and one of the #3 WRs (Fuller/Ross).

The PLAYOFF PICTURE
This could change dramatically if GB loses on MNF (GB is NOT losing on MNF), but currently the Lions are in the 6th spot (last Wild Card) and should remain there at least if they win their next 2 games and Eagles-Cowboys don't tie. They could move up to the #2 in the NFC if GB loses tonight. That's a big shift.

Most likely Detroit will win their next 2 (but don't ever count this team out when it comes to disappointments), Philly will beat Dallas, and the Packers win tonight. This gets interesting if Detroit loses one of their next games or if they happen to be the Packers in Green Bay on week 17. That's probably not going to happen because this team beats bad teams on the road, not good teams, but the NFL can be crazy sometimes. 

Right now the Lions have an 82.52% shot of making the playoffs, which is great, but all year I've said I don't trust this team to get in until that number is at 100%. If feels different this year, but they're still the Lions. So root for Atlanta tonight. If GB loses and Detroit beats MIN next week, they'd be over 93%. Unfortunately there is no scenario in which Detroit can lock anything up until week 16, and most likely they'd be waiting until week 17 for all the chips to fall, even if they take care of their own business.

Please Lions, take care of your own business.