Thursday, November 6, 2014

A Couple Rarities: a Pistons win & a good Lions Draft

There are a couple of things I want to touch on with the Lions, but the Pistons finally won a game so let's get to that first.


The Knicks started 2 centers and Carmelo, who is basically a PF, so it made sense to start Drummond, Monroe and Smith all together. Drummond and Smith had bad games, Drummond with his continued foul trouble and Smith with his continued crappy shooting. Monroe (being awesome) and Carmelo (being not-awesome) would be the difference in this one.

The Knicks were already down one PG, Jose Calderon, one SG, JR Smith (for intentionally punching Glen Rice Jr in the nuts), and then another PG, Pablo Prigioni, went down with an ankle after playing only 6 minutes. Andrea Bargnani hasn't played all year. In short, this wasn't a team that was ready to handle a bad night from 'Melo. Fortunately for the Pistons, Carmelo didn't deliver.


That's a lot of X's. I'd like to say this was due to fabulous defense by Josh Smith, but Smith probably defended him roughly half the time. 'Melo took a ton of off-balance shots, well-defended shots, and shots that he normally makes that just didn't go in. In fact, if I were to overlay Carmelo's shot chart from last season over that game, his attempts line up pretty well with his hot spots.

 
He took threes from areas where he normally makes them, he took jumpers pretty close to those 2 hotspots between the elbow and the baseline, and he even missed a couple of shots right at the hoop. Not a good night for 'Melo.

Greg Monroe, on the other hand, shot fairly well. He didn't make a really high percentage of his shots (8-17 isn't great if nearly all your shots are within 8 ft of the hoop), but he hustled to get some putbacks and really put in some work on the low block.


It's kind of dumb to gripe about a 23 point, 18 rebound effort, but there are a couple of nits I have to pick. First, that is a LOT of misses in the paint. Secondly, I'd like to see him taking some shots around the elbow. He's got that one long miss, but I'd like to see him take some shots in the 12-15 ft range. Those minor irritations aside, there was a lot to like. Alright, just had an idea for a section I'm going to call Three Studs, Three Duds. Catchy, right? I hope I didn't subconsciously plagiarize somebody with that one. Anyway...

Three Studs
1. Greg Monroe: Mostly covered this in the last 2 paragraphs, but he was The Man. Also shot 7-8 from the stripe, and on a night when rebounds were a key factor in the Pistons' victory, he snagged 18. Also key: despite really high usage from Monroe in this game, only 1 turnover.
2. Kentavious C-P: I need to figure out a way to say his name without going with the acronym every time... Anyway. KCP had his best game this season, shooting 4-7 from three and netting 20 points. More of this, please. The one fly in the oatmeal: he missed 2 clutch free-throws that would have put the game away.
3. Jonas Jerebko: Played 15 min, shot 4-6, 3-4 from three, 11 points, 3 boards and an assist. That's incredible production. At that rate, he'd have scored 26pts, 7 boards in 36 minutes.

Three Duds
1. Josh Smith: Yes, he filled up the stat sheet with 10 boards, 5 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks. Now for the bad: 2-17 shooting, he took some TERRIBLE shots and got booed, and got out-played by the Knicks' Jason Smith.
2. Andre Drummond: 13 boards, 2 blocks - good. 3-10 shooting (1-4 FT), 5 fouls - BAD. Drummond has taken a big step back through the first 4 games. Lots of fouls, poor shooting, and it's led to him logging 1 game with over 30 minutes played. This needs to change FAST.
3. Kyle Singler: He was the anti-Jerebko. He played 13 minutes and might as well have played zero.

Drummond gets a chance to turn it around against Milwaukee on Friday. Josh Smith... well, the clock is ticking there. I think he's out the door by the trade deadline. SVG will have to work some magic to get much in return, but he'll be gone if all we get back is some gumballs and a couple of Bennigans coupons.

***

I kill Mayhew for some of his drafts. In 2009, he took Pettigrew (a TE???) with the 20th pick when the Lions had serious needs on defense, and guys like Clay Matthews Jr and Vontae Davis were available. The Suh pick was great (obvious, but great) in 2010, but then he traded back up into the 1st to take Jahvid Best, a RB with serious health concerns when CB Patrick Robinson, a better RB Dexter McCluster, and TE Rob Gronkowski were all sitting there. The 2011 draft was particularly bad with only Fairley still on the team, and I had doubts about the 2012 one as well (taking Reiff over Janoris Jenkins, taking Broyles at all, etc.). The early returns on the 2014 draft are pretty poor, but the 2013 draft?


Let's give Mayhew a little credit for this one. It does look like a broken clock scenario, especially in context with his other drafts. For the record, I'd give Mayhew a C+ for '09, a C for '10, a D for '11, a C for 12, an A for '13 and a C- for '14 (this would go way down or way up, depending on how Ebron, Van Noy & Swanson turn out). But Mayhew's 2013 draft was REALLY good. I know it's really early to start saying that, but the returns have been good so far. Grantland just did a 2013 re-draft with Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays, and 3 Lions picks made the top 20.


1. Ezequiel Ansah. I totally saw this pick coming. They needed a DE desperately, and he had the most upside. Plus, the other position of need was OT and the top 3 had already been taken when the Lions' turn came up at #5. Both Mays and Barnwell have Ansah as their #2 in the re-draft, Mays basically saying Ansah is the best player but wouldn't go #1 due to a bad fit with KC.

2. Darius Slay. The Lions have needed a CB since forever, there were 2 from Mississippi State on the board in the 2nd round, and it looked like Detroit picked the wrong one! Johnathan Banks had a higher grade than Slay. Slay had a better 40 time (and by like 3 tenths of a second, which is a lot), but he was recovering from a knee injury. Banks looks like a player, but I think Slay is a better cover guy. Banks has more picks, Slay has more tackles and passes defensed. Right now I'd take Slay over Banks 10 times out of 10. Barnwell had the Jets taking Slay at #9 instead of Milliner, the top-rated CB in the draft, and Mays had him going 15th. He was originally taken with the 36th pick.

3. Larry Warford. The Lions had HUGE needs at DE, all over the offensive line, and at CB. OT was the biggest need, so losing out on the top OT's in the 1st round hurt, then Detroit appeared to take the wrong CB in the 2nd. Warford was the best lineman available when their turn came in the 3rd, and man did he deliver. He's taken a step back this year (as has Detroit's line as a unit), but believe me there will be Pro Bowls in his future. Both Mays & Barnwell had him going 13th instead of 65th.

The rest of the draft was pretty good too. The next pick was Devin Taylor, a DE, taken with the 132nd pick in the 4th round. He's been buried behind Ansah and the more veteran pass rushers, but he managed to get 2.5 sacks last year in limited time. Detroit needed a punter, took Sam Martin in the 5th round and he's one of the top punters in the NFL. Detroit had 2 6th round picks, WR Corey Fuller and RB Theo Riddick. Fuller has filled in admirably while Calvin Johnson has been out, and Riddick has been MUCH better than Reggie Bush this year, at least in the receiving game.

Both 7th round picks are no longer on the team, but the Lions managed to get 2 undrafted free agents that same year that made major contributions. LaAdrian Waddle took over the starting RT spot from Corey Hilliard last year, and then Joseph Fauria grabbed 7 TDs last year as a red zone TE (and a big reason why I wondered what the hell Mayhew was doing drafting Ebron).

The 2013 draft (included the undrafted FAs) so far has yielded more useful players (8) than the Lions' 2010, 2011 & 2012 drafts together (5). If you want to exclude players now playing for other teams, the 2013 draft beats all of Mayhew's drafts COMBINED. That says a lot, both about how good the 2013 draft was and how bad his other drafts have been. Obviously this changes if Eric Ebron turns into Jimmy Graham, Travis Swanson becomes an adequate replacement for Raiola, and Kyle Van Noy does what I think he can do.

There's more Lions stuff I want to touch on, but I'll save that for tomorrow. This post has gone on long enough. So, coming tomorrow, some interesting stats thanks to Bill Barnwell & a DET/MIA preview.

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