The main thing was his inaccuracy. He had the 4 drops, 3 of which could have been touchdowns. He didn't have the greatest protection. But a 39.1% completion rate is his worst EVER. Worst than the blizzard in Philly last year. Worse than any game in the 8 game losing streak in 2012. Worse than any game his rookie year. The last time the Lions made the playoffs, Stafford had his best season ever. He was coming off nearly an entire season missed due to injury, and he was pretty banged up his rookie year. Well, he came out looking like a stud. Check those 2011 numbers:
He threw for over 5,000 yards, 7.6 yards per attempt, 41 TDs, 16 picks, 3 fumbles, a QBR of 64.4 and a passer rating of 97.2. This was Stafford's first full season as a Lion, and this is what we thought he was. The last 2 years he was pretty mediocre (don't want no mediocre). This year he's just as bad, maybe worse. He's on pace to throw for 4,280 yards, a career low for a full season. His passer rating and completion % are consistent with a QB in the bottom quarter of the league, and his QBR puts him in the bottom 3rd.
Sunday wasn't the worst game of his career, but it was pretty bad. Added to all the over-throws and under-throws, Stafford made probably the worst play of the game early in the 4th. The score was 27-9, with 11:36 to go. Gruesome, but not insurmountable. The Lions were facing a 4th & 10 from the NE 25 and Caldwell decided to go for it. Stafford was unable to find an open receiver, but he saw daylight and decided to scramble for the first. With a defender looming just past the first-down marker, Stafford made a "business decision". He slid. The rules for the QB slide are the ball gets marked from the spot the ball is when the QB starts his slide. He KNOWS he has to get to the 15, which is an easy yardline to spot, but all Stafford could see was Patrick Chung waiting for him. The ball was correctly spotted a full yard short. Lame.
People have made a lot of Stafford's "late-game heroics", which somehow excuses his "rest-of-game sucking". Sliding a yard short of the first-down marker on 4th & 11 has to go on the resume too. He was all over the place on Sunday. He couldn't get into the end zone, although that wasn't entirely his fault. And when the team needed him to step up, he went into the fetal position. Is it time to start looking for other options?
Let's look at some numbers: averaging $17.7M/yr, Stafford is the 9th-highest paid QB in the NFL. Keep in mind, guys like Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, RG3, etc. are on their rookie scale which is something that kicked in AFTER Detroit drafted Stafford and Suh. Still, below him are guys like Philip Rivers at $15.3M, Ben Roethlisberger at $14.7M, and Tom Brady at $14.1M. That's INSANE. What makes it worse is the fact that there are backups in this league making a quarter (or less) of what Stafford does who are as good or better (Vick, Stanton, Sanchize, Shaun Hill, etc.). Suh is the best player on the team and will walk for nothing if he doesn't get paid. Calvin Johnson is deteriorating, but he's still pretty good. Stafford is mediocre, but he's getting paid like a top 10 QB.
Stafford is locked up until after the 2017 season, so if the Lions want to switch things up at QB, they'll need to swing a deal. This rarely happens with QBs. The most recent example I can think of was Jay Cutler in 2009, the year Stafford was drafted incidentally. Cutler was about to turn 26, having completed his 3rd year of pro football, and had posted 3 straight years of middle-of-the-road numbers (passer rating 88.5, 88.1 & 86.0). He had a big arm, but also had a reputation as a bit of a whiner and a coach killer. He was traded with the Bronco's 5th round pick for Chicago's 2009 1st- & 3rd-rounders as well as their 2010 1st-rounder.
I'd take that in a heartbeat for Stafford, only that's not what we're getting. Stafford is a year older than Cutler was, and he's got an extra 2-3 years of experience over Cutler. His numbers are worse (career 82.8 passer rating) and he has less promise than Cutler did. Then there's his bloated salary to think about. Detroit isn't getting two 1st-rounders and a 3rd rounder for Stafford.
To paraphrase Chi McBride in Draft Day, who's the most desperate? In the AFC, the Bills, Jets, Texans, and Titans are all in a bad way with their QBs. The Bills & Jets are both trying to bring along younger QBs, both of whom have been benched for their backups. In the NFC, Washington, the Bucs, the Cards to some extent, and the Rams are also experiencing QB troubles. There are 2 pretty good QBs in the draft this year, Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. Winston will drop because he's a total head case, but if both guys go early, the Lions might be able to swing a 1st & a 3rd-type deal with one of the above-named desperate teams. They may have to settle for a 1st & 3rd in the 2016 draft or something, but a team like the Titans might go for that.
Also, Matt Flynn, Mark Sanchez, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Colt McCoy, and Austin Davis are all free agents in 2015. I would take any of those guys over Stafford right now. McCoy only had 2 good games this year, but they were GOOD. Mallett had 1 good game, 1 bad game before tearing his pec, but he'd come at a much cheaper price to do basically what Stafford is doing right now. Sanchez has thrown a lot of picks, but he's also been better than Stafford. Hoyer's might not be as good as Stafford, but he's not much worse and he'll cost about $10M less. Out of all these guys, I like Austin Davis the best. Suppose the Lions could deal Stafford for a 1st & 3rd in 2015 or 2016 and then pick up Davis in free agency...
***
Alright, out of fantasy land and into reality. The 2 biggest reasons the Lions' offense stink, other than Stafford, is the offensive line and the offensive coordinator. The line has been banged up all year, and even when healthy they've under performed from last year. This has never been a good run blocking group, but they were pretty good in pass protection last year. This year they are leading the league in sacks allowed.
Joe Lombardi came in as a first-year OC, formerly a QB coach with the Saints. The hope was that he would bring that New Orleans scheme to Detroit and improve Stafford's footwork in the pocket to be more like Drew Brees. Well, the scheme might mirror the Saints, but the play calling leaves much to be desired. I'd noticed a lot of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on the sideline, but I hadn't realized he did it on almost every running play. Tate has been Detroit's best WR this year, but he only is on the field 85% of the time with the offense. He's 6th in yards, 24th in offensive snap %. Additionally, is there a better way to telegraph I'm RUNNING to a defense than to take your top 2 WR off the field?
The Lions could stand to upgrade their RB position. Joique Bell is a serviceable back, but he's not going to light the world on fire. But I blame the lack of success in the running game on Lombardi first, offensive line 2nd. The lack of success in the passing game should go O Line 1st, Lombardi 2nd. This offense is unbelievably disappointing.
Interesting point about coaching/drops from Gregg Easterbrook:
Watching the New England staff out-coach the Detroit staff was like watching Itzhak Perlman teach a novice how to hold a violin. Last week at Indianapolis, the Patriots huddled up and mostly ran a heavy package of two tight ends and a fullback. That's the film Detroit looked at during the week. Sunday, New England used a no-huddle hurry-up with four or five wide. The game was a 1 p.m. start in late November, which means declining winter sun may be in a receiver's eyes. From about Veterans Day on, the coach who leaves nothing to chance sends someone to the field the day before the game to chart the sun, as perceived from the field, as it declines during the hours of the contest. Sunday, in the second quarter, a Detroit receiver was sent deep where, looking back, the sun was blinding: drop. New England passes went to shaded areas of the field.He also called out Lions HC Jim Caldwell for some... less than aggressive... decisions in a segment where he highlights pointless punts and fearful fieldgoals:
Buck-Buck-Brawkkkkkk: Trailing 7-3 in the second quarter at New England, Detroit faced fourth-and-goal on the Patriots 2, and took the field goal. New England entered the contest as the league's second highest-scoring team -- touchdowns, not field goals, defeat high-scoring teams. To prove it was no fluke, trailing 14-6 in the second quarter, Detroit punted on fourth-and-3 from the New England 39. By playing it "safe," Detroit went on to lose 34-9.These things are the difference between coaches that win big games & coaches that watch the other team win big games. Caldwell hasn't shown he can coach up to the moment.
No comments:
Post a Comment