Bill Barnwell is a writer for Grantland who specializes in the NFL, and he tends to go deep into statistical analysis. It can get a bit dry, but his writing is packed with information. He wrote an article analyzing the stats behind the stats for the 1st half of the 2014 season to see what we might expect in the 2nd half. There is quite a bit of relevance for the Lions here, so I thought I'd call some of that out.
Pythagorean Expectation: So-called due to its resemblance to the pythagorean theorem, the theory behind it is that point differential is a better indicator of how good a team is than their actual record. The Lions come in as the 3rd "luckiest" team in the NFL, with a Pythagorean win expectation of 5.2. This basically means they should be 5-3, not 6-2. Also of note, the Cardinals (Detroit's week 11 opponent) are the luckiest team with 5.0 expected wins instead of 7, and the Patriots (Detroit's week 12 opponent) are the 5th luckiest with 6 expected wins instead of 7.
Performance in Close Games: This is the team's record in games decided by 1 score or less (<=7). The Lions are tied for 1st with the Bills and the Cowboys, all at 3-1. This is interesting because a) the Lions were really bad in close games the last 2 years, and b) the Lions would be 4-0 (and 7-1 overall) in close games had their kicker not shanked 3 FGs in the Buffalo game.
Strength of Schedule: This is pretty easy to explain. Through their 1st 8 games, the Lions have played the 4th easiest schedule. The Jets at -8.0 SRS, the Falcons at -5.9 SRS, and the Panthers at -7.3 SRS are the Lions' lowest rated 1st half opponents. Detroit's 2nd half schedule is a mixed bag, featuring several monsters (the Pats at 9.3 SRS, the Dolphins at 8.4, and Arizona at 5.7) and a couple of duds (the Bucs at -14.0!!!, the Vikes at -4.6, and da Bears twice at -4.0).
What does this mean for the next 8 games? Well, the Lions have featured the offense of a 2-6 team and the defense of an 8-0 team. Weird kicking issues aside, they're kind of lucky to be sitting where they are. With a tougher 2nd half schedule and possibly some regression to the mean in their Pythagorean expectation and performance in close games, could we see another 2nd half implosion by the Lions?
Maybe. But their kicking game WILL be better, and Detroit is getting Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush, Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, and Joe Fauria back this week. A healthy CJ alone should bump this offense from terrible to merely mediocre. How this offense progresses through the next 3 games is crucial to how the Lions finish the season. That murderer's row of Miami, New England and Arizona happen to be Detroit's next 3 games. If Detroit makes it through that stretch with 2 wins or more, they win the division. If they win one or none, they could still finish 10-6 but it gets harder. We all saw how the wheels came off last year as the Lions trumped each unbelievable loss with a more unbelievable loss. As my old coach used to say, they were on skates when they needed to dig in.
Focusing in on Sunday, what should we expect in the Detroit/Miami matchup? The Dolphins are 5-3, featuring a solid defense and a decent offense that scores a bunch. Miami is the #11 offense in yards/game, #9 in points/game. Their defense is 3rd behind Detroit and San Francisco, tied for 2nd in takeaways with 18 through 8 games (Detroit has 12, being less lucky in fumble recoveries). On top of that, the Dolphins have scored 3 TDs off of turnovers.
The good news? Coming off of a bye week, the Lions are healthier than they've been since week 1. Nick Fairley is still out, but Van Noy should be ready to contribute on a limited basis and basically all the offense is returning. That's the stage, who are the players? There are 3 key matchups to watch for on Sunday.
1. QB Ryan Tannehill vs. the Lions' Front 7: Tannehill is in his 3rd season and his having his best season as a pro by far. He's completing a nice percentage of his passes, he's throwing it about 35 times a game and netting 238 yards. He also runs a read option, and in this 3-game winning streak of Miami's, he's taken it himself about 5 times a game and gotten about 48 yards. Tannehill is Miami's 2nd leading rusher. Teryl Austin will need to draw up a nice plan to keep him hemmed in. A strong effort from the front 7 is crucial, needing a good pass rush that doesn't expose the edge for a long scramble. Suh needs to have one of his monster games, providing pressure in the middle and pushing the pocket towards one of the DEs. Either Levy or more likely Tahir Whitehead will be tracking Tannehill on passing plays. Pressure, as always, is key to forcing Tannehill into a bad passing day. And then the DEs need to stay home on the read option (more on this below).
2. Stafford & Calvin Johnson vs. Miami's DBs: Golden Tate has been phenomenal through 8 weeks, but CJ makes this offense go. Miami has the #2 pass defense, and credit their defensive backfield - Cortland Finnegan, Brent Grimes, Louis Delmas, Reshad Jones, and Jimmy Wilson. Grimes has 4 picks, good for 2nd in the league, and will most likely get the Calvin Johnson assignment. Stafford needs to be crisper on his passes than he's been and can't lock onto Calvin when he's triple-covered.
3. Lions' O-Line vs. 'Fins' D-Line: For some reason, Detroit went from one of the better pass-blocking units last year to one of the worst. Losing Waddle/Hilliard hurt, but then Waddle returned and they weren't much better. There may be some issues with protection assignments in this new offense, which I'm hoping got straightened out in the bye week. Stafford with time looks like Aaron Rodgers, Stafford under pressure looks like Jake Delhomme. Well, 'Fins DEs Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon can get after the QB. This is probably the best pass rush the Lions will see all year, so no more ole' blocks, no more checking-outside-while-the-blitzer-blows-by-you (I'm looking at YOU, Raiola). Tighten up.
The run blocking has never been good, so an average effort will do this week. The keys will be limiting turnovers by the offense and giving Stafford time. Miami's closest thing to a standout star on offense is Tannehill. Mike Wallace can fly at WR, but Tannehill spreads his passing around. They have a good rushing attack, largely due to Tannehill and the read option.
But the read option is simple to defend, if you are prepared. The QB reads the DE, who is unblocked. Based on what that DE does, the QB either hands it off, keeps it, or pitches it outside (if there's a pitchman... like most read option teams, Miami doesn't use one). I played DE in high school and LOVED facing option teams. My job: hit the QB. Green light. He's a runner, he's coming towards you, hit him. The sooner & harder you hit him, the sooner he pitches it. When the pitch happens early, the pitchman might not be ready for it, he'll probably be deeper in the backfield, and the defense has more time to track the play down. Read option is a bit different than a run option, but the idea is essentially the same. Tannehill will take the snap in the shotgun and hold the ball out for the RB. If the DE stays home, he hands it off. If the DE gets sucked in, he pulls it back and takes off for a large gain.
They run this with a wing on the side opposite of the direction of the play. The wing pulls and does a kick-out block on the LB if the DE gets sucked in. If the DE stays home, or better yet, attacks and blows up the pulling wing, the play ends in the backfield. It sounds simple, but it requires the DE going against instinct. Normally when he goes unblocked, the play is designed to go away from him. On many of these plays that go for big gains you see the DE come flying around the corner, trying to catch the RB from behind, only to watch the play go right by. Play this wrong and it will go for at least 20 yards.
I hate making predictions. I'm emotionally invested, so if I pick the Lions I feel uneasy and if I pick against them, I feel like a douche. On top of that, I'm not sure how good Miami actually is. They're rated pretty high, but they lost to Buffalo (badly, unlike the Lions who win if they make a FG), Kansas City and Green Bay (Miami's D got picked apart by Rodgers at the end of that one). Their signature wins have come over New England (when they were playing POORLY) and more recently over San Diego (in a classic Rivers wet-the-bed game). Their defense is for real, but I'm not sure about that offense.
On the other hand, how good are the Lions? Their big wins have been over Green Bay (when they were playing POORLY) and a tight one over New Orleans. Will the offense come around? How will the defense sustain the loss of Fairley? They get CJ Mosley back after his team suspension, so they may not miss Fairley that much, but the D Line is now thinner than before. Calvin Johnson should be at or around 100%, and all 3 TEs are back. I'll say the offense finally shows up, despite facing a top passing defense, and Detroit gets into the end zone more than Miami does. Home field is probably the difference in this one, these teams are evenly matched.
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Denard Robinson is doing well as an NFL running back. His last 3 games he's rushed for 127, 108 and 94, averaging over 5 yards a carry each game. I always liked Denard, though not as a QB. I wonder if he ties his shoes now... Nope!
This should be a lesson to Devin Gardner, who will never be an NFL quarterback. If he wants to play pro ball, he needs to work on being the best WR he can be. I think he could cut it as a slot WR or a #2 option.
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The Ray Rice hearings are going on, and Goodell looks to be in trouble. He's switched his story like 17 times, and it seems like Rice has been upfront about what happened since the beginning. Goodell's punishment of Rice on his 2nd attempt was what everyone wanted from the beginning, only it wasn't really fair according the discipline policy at the time. It's not even fair according to the current policy. I doubt Rice will play again this year because he has no team, but the NFL will have to settle with him.
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The Red Wings have 6 wins, 3 losses, and 4 OT losses, 2 of them in shootouts. They've got 2 OT wins, 0 shootout wins. Shootouts were a problem last year. They finished the 2013-'14 season with 15 OT losses (tied for 2nd most in the NHL) with a 5-9 record in shootouts. No other playoff team had as many losses in shootouts. This wasn't a problem in the past, since Datsyuk was gold, and Detroit had other guys like Bertuzzi, Hudler and Filpula that had some good moves for shootouts. Now it looks like After Datsyuk and Nyquist, Detroit doesn't have the same type of playmakers it used to. Add to that the fact that Datsyuk isn't quite the shootout menace he used to be, and this team needs answers.
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I was about to put a baseball FA tidbit in here, but it's nothing and I have to call it quits until next week. Go Lions!
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