With all these "ugly" wins, where do the Lions fit among the top teams in the NFL? Well, there are 3 other teams that are 7-2 or better (Denver, New England, and Arizona), Philly is 6-2 and plays tonight, and then there are 5 teams that are 6-3 or better (Green Bay, Seattle, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Dallas and Kansas City). After yesterday’s win over Miami, I have a pretty good idea where Detroit is right now, so let me try to put this in perspective. I think Detroit is better than Philly, Cleveland, Kansas City, Dallas and Seattle. I think they’re really close to Green Bay, Arizona and Indianapolis, and both Denver and New England are better than the Lions. If I had to give Detroit a rank right now, I’d put them at 5th in the league. I know they beat Green Bay already, but that team is on a serious tear right now. With Carson Palmer out, Detroit should be better than Arizona, and Indianapolis looks like a bit of a paper champion to me.
Before we get into the deeper implications of Detroit's win over Miami and look ahead, let's enjoy the win. It's nice to have Calvin Johnson back, right? He crossed Grimes up to get open here with an inside-outside-inside move & Stafford's bomb was perfect. It was a thing of beauty. Here it is in moving pictures:
I was watching the game with a group of friends, and when CJ pulled that ball in, everyone watching stood up and made the "OOOOOOOHHHHHHHH!" sound. When Stafford airs one out like that and I know Calvin Johnson is in the game, my confidence on the success of that play goes up about 900%. The next time Stafford tried a throw like that, he underthrew CJ and got picked off by one of the more athletic plays of the NFL season.
Grimes was one of the top corners in the league going into the game, and I was pretty worried about him going into the contest. Yes, Stafford underthrew CJ, but not by a ton. Calvin could have made the catch if Grimes wasn't there, Grimes had to make an incredible play to pull that in, and we were kind of left shaking our heads (totally agree with this tweet).
This was a wacky game. There were 3 fake punts, 2 by Detroit and 1 by Miami (successful, but negated by a penalty). Detroit's 2nd attempt looked like an audible when the outside guy for Miami uncovered Detroit's gunner, but Martin's pass was bad and by the time Qudus pulled it in, the defense had recovered. Here's their first attempt:
This was a much easier pass than the sideline pass he had to throw to Qudus on the 2nd fake punt attempt, and you can see Martin isn't about to challenge Stafford in the arm strength department. I liked this call, and I didn't mind the 2nd call that was unsuccessful. Of note, on this play I believe the RG Larry Warford suffered a knee injury and might miss considerable time. RT LaAdrian Waddle also left the game and didn't return, but that seemed more precautionary than necessary.
Listed 3 key matchups for this game on Friday. How did they play out? Well, Tannehill vs. Lions' front 7 I'm calling a win for the Lions. They sacked him three times, hit him 9 times (Suh being the biggest meanie with a sack and 3 hits), and kept him to 2 carries for 0 yards. I was worried about Tannehill's rushing being a wild card and putting the defense in disarray. The DEs stayed home and they kept him in check. He was on his back much of the afternoon, and took several punishing hits. One was flagged (blow to the head, iffy call since they actually hit him in the upper chest) and Suh got nailed with a facemask penalty, which was legit. This one? Not flagged.
I'm pretty sure that move isn't legal in MMA. Anyway, Tannehill finished the game with a QBR of 27.1, which is 4th from the bottom this week (so far, 1 game to play). Stafford fared quite a bit better in his matchup, Stafford & Calvin Johnson vs. Miami's DBs. Stafford got picked once on the aforementioned incredibly athletic play, but he finished with a QBR of 52.1 (average) and 2 TD passes, including the game winner.
Ok, let me express how amazing this throw is. Stafford is rolling to his left, making it harder to step into the throw to put some omph into it. Then he has to open his hips to make the pass go to Riddick instead of, say, the camera men on the sideline. This makes it even harder to put any power into the throw. Riddick is covered, but somehow Stafford puts an insane amount of zip on the ball, placing it where only Theo Riddick can reach, and Riddick makes a nice play on the ball. Calvin had a better game than Stafford, getting 113 yards and a TD on 7 catches, including this one:
Plays like that are why Calvin Johnson is The Man. CJ over the top and over the middle opened up things for Golden Tate as well. Tate experienced zero dropoff in production, despite being the #2 WR now that Calvin is back. He was used often on that bubble screen, which was always good for at least 5 yards and usually more. The Miami DBs did ok, getting the pick and knocking down some passes, including what would have been CJ's 2nd TD catch, but they were overmatched in the end.
I'm going to call the last matchup, Lions' O-Line vs. Dolphin's D-line a draw. Detroit was running the ball pretty well until they went strictly to the pass (Reggie Bush averaged 5.0 yards/carry before he limped off, Joique Bell averaged 4.4 yards/carry & by all accounts had a decent game. Just ask Cortland Finnegan). Stafford USUALLY had time to throw it. Miami's defense was credited with 3 sacks, although 1 was a tackle with no loss of yards (which isn't really a sack is it?), and on 1 the ref absurdly blew the whistle when Stafford was barely tied up and got free in less than a second.
Let me put in a not-so-quick aside about how ridiculous this call was: it was 3rd and long, Stafford got tangled up with Wake and kicked free. He wasn't wrapped up - Wake had him by the ankle - and no one from Miami was coming to clean it up. This whistle was REALLY quick and infuriating, like on a hockey play when the goalie goes down on a shot, the ref loses sight of the puck & blows the whistle just as the puck appears across the line. When Stafford extends a play like that, there is a really good chance he's going to find somebody in the end zone, like on that game-winning throw. I get that they want to save the QB, but I've never seen that play blown dead before.
The Lions out-played the 'Fins for most of the game in most facets of the game. There were 2 big swings in the game by Miami, one being Grimes' INT in the end zone right after Ihedigbo had a pick with a big return off of Tannehill. That pick probably took points off the board from Detroit. The biggest turnaround in the game was in the 3rd quarter, when Prater's 42-yd FG attempt was blocked and returned to the 3 yard line. That was a 10-point swing. Take those 2 plays away and this game isn't close.
So, on to Arizona, the #1 team in the NFC (and top record in football). Their defense is top notch, but I'm suddenly MUCH less frightened of their offense. Carson Palmer went down with an ACL injury and should miss the rest of the season. Drew Stanton, former MSU QB/former Lions 3rd-string QB, will step in again as the starter. Stanton didn't play all that well when Palmer was injured earlier in the season (doesn't Carson Palmer get knocked out for the season like every other year?), although the Cards won every game he started except the Denver game. From the "Losers" section of Grantland's NFL week 10 Winners and Losers column:
"Arizona is 8-1, and although any stat ever conceived pokes holes in that record, this team was legitimately frightening. Without Palmer, the Cardinals get much less scary. Drew Stanton has played admirably in Palmer’s absence, but Arizona’s ceiling without its starting quarterback takes a serious hit. Palmer currently ranks 10th in QBR. He was completing 63 percent of his passes. Even if the extension was ill-advised, it happened because Palmer was playing well — or at least well enough to win. Stanton can’t consistently do that."Even without Palmer, the Cardinals are a really good team. Under Stanton they beat the Giants by 2 scores and San Francisco by 2 scores, and they lost to Denver by 21. Their pass defense doesn't look particularly good overall (30th in yards allowed), but they have some ballhawks (Patrick Peterson, the Honey Badger, Cromartie, and Jerraud Powers to name a few) and rate #1 in interceptions. Their running game is about where Detroit's is and their decent passing game (13th to Detroit's 9th) is taking a hit with their #1 QB out. Their D line doesn't get after the QB much (only 14 total sacks - Calais Campbell is back, but they lost their #1 pass-rusher John Abraham and a nice DE Darnell Dockett at the start of the season), but their O line doesn't allow any sacks either.
It'll be a really tough game, but the door is a little more open. If the Lions win next Sunday... IF the Lions win next Sunday, the door to the top spot in the NFC is open (scroll down about half-way to the NFC clump 1 section). Their remaining schedule would contain 1 REALLY good team (New England @ Foxboro), 1 pretty good team (Green Bay @ Lambeau), and a bunch of duds (Chicago twice, Minnesota and Tampa Bay). That's potentially a 12-4 record. I'm not ready to predict Detroit running the table, but a win over Arizona could (and very probably WOULD) lead to the Lions' first 1st-round bye since...gulp... 1991!
That was fun. See you later for the mixed bag that is the Detroit Pistons.
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