2014 Lions vs. 1991 Lions, also may face the 2014 Cardinals

On 97.1 The Ticket yesterday, Mike Valenti posed the idea that Sunday's game vs. Arizona is the biggest game (regular season) the Lions have played in 20 years. Obviously this is dependent on how you define a "big" regular season game, so let's go over the implications of this game.

1. Arizona has the top record in football. In the NFC, Detroit is tied with Philly for #2, Dallas is half a game behind at 7-3, and Green Bay and Seattle are a full game back at 6-3. If Detroit wins, they take over the top spot in the NFC.
2. Whether you believe Arizona is really the top team in the NFL or not (I don't), they are still REALLY good. They are missing Carson Palmer, but earlier in the season they had to do without him and went 3-1 with Stanton, beating NYG, SF and STL by 11, 9, & 17, and losing to DEN by 21. They still are the toughest team Detroit has played yet, even without Palmer. A win over the Cards would legitimize the Lions' record, which currently features several "lucky" wins and losses to 5-5 Buffalo and 3-6-1 Carolina
3. Arizona has traditionally been a bad team, much like Detroit actually, but since 2001 the Cardinals' record head to head vs. the Lions is 7-3. Detroit has played a disproportionate number of games in Arizona recently (4 out of the last 5, 6 out of 10 overall) and have lost to the Cards every time they've played in AZ. This will be their 11th meeting in 13 years, and the 7th of those 11 meetings that takes place in AZ. If the Lions are going to create a culture shift & rid themselves of the SOL tag, a big win on the road over the Cards would be a sign that it's happening

The last time the Lions won a playoff game was in 1991, which was 23 years ago (for those you too lazy to do the math). That team went 12-4 in the regular season (getting HOUSED by WAS & SF in the regular season, but beat the Cowboys & Bills), had a 1st round bye, beat the Cowboys in the 2nd round, then had to face Washington in the Conference Championship and were slaughtered by 31 points. Since then the Lions have had 3 10-win seasons and 6 playoff appearances, losing in the Wild Card round every time. The biggest regular season game that year was the week 17 OT win over Buffalo (who finished 13-3). That win was over a high quality opponent and sealed a 1st round bye for Detroit. This Cards game is the biggest regular season game since then.
 

Reviewing the 1991 Lions, they had 1 Pro Bowler on offense (Barry), 2 on defense (Spielman & Jerry Ball), and 1 on special teams (Mel Gray). They had a middle of the road offense and a middle of the road defense. They mainly lost to good teams (WAS, SF, CHI) but they also managed to lose to the 3-13 Bucs. They also beat some pretty good teams (DAL, CHI, BUF). How does this 2014 team compare?

Golden Tate should make the Pro Bowl if he's able to relatively maintain production with CJ back in the lineup. The Miami game was an indication he can do that. Calvin would need an amazing 2nd half, but we all know he's capable of that as well. Nobody on the O Line is making the Pro Bowl, Stafford almost certainly isn't, and none of the RBs are. So call it 1.5 Pro Bowlers on offense. Suh should make it EASILY on defense, and Levy should as well. An outside case could also be made for CB Darius Slay and DE Ezequiel Ansah, but both have a similar problem: Slay doesn't have the INTs to make him stand out and Ansah doesn't have the sacks. They're both having incredible seasons, but it's unlikely either will make the Pro Bowl, so call it 2 on defense. None of the special teams guys should make it, although punter Sam Martin has a long shot. 

So far in the 2014 season, Detroit has lost to a bad team in CAR and a meh team in BUF. They've beaten a couple of good teams in GB and MIA, and if they beat a really good team in AZ this Sunday, they could very well finish with 12 wins for the first time since 1991.

 

So how about that game? The line BARELY favors AZ (anytime the spread favors the home team by <3, it's a good sign for the road team), and the Over/Under is pretty low at 41 (which figures with a game that features two top-5 scoring defenses... Naturally this game will be like 41-35 or something). The matchup everyone talking about is Calvin Johnson vs. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is considered one of the top cover CBs in the game and is an incredible athlete. He's also one of the few that isn't giving up a ton of size vs. Calvin. Antonio Cromartie isn't too bad himself, and he'll probably see a lot of Golden Tate, although I expect to see some of the Honey Badger on Tate as well. I expect both Tate and Calvin to see their share of opportunities despite the tough matchups, but the question is whether or not Stafford will be accurate enough.
 

Arizona is starting Drew Stanton with Carson Palmer being out for the season, and as you can see, there is a considerable dropoff. The Cards go from a slightly better than average passer to a much less accurate passer who won't throw it down field much. He's got a couple of good targets in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown, and his line is a good pass-blocking line, but then so was Miami's line. Arizona's run game is much like Detroit's - non-existant - but they may run a lot more than usual with Stanton in the game instead of Palmer. The Cards' defense is 5th in the league going by Football Outsiders' "Weighted Defense" and Defense DVOA, while more conventional metrics like "Yards Allowed/Game" and Points Allowed/Game" have them at 15th and 5th respectively. The generate a LOT of turnovers, getting the edge over Detroit here due to an obscenely high % of fumbles recovered. Their offense has only given up 7 turnovers so far (Detroit has 12 giveaways).

Stafford is a better QB than Stanton, but he'll need to limit his turnovers. CJ & Golden Tate are probably the best 1-2 WR punch this season now that Calvin is healthy. Additionally, the Lions are getting all 3 TEs back this week for the first time since Fauria jacked up his ankle chasing after his urinating dog. This give Stafford receiving threats at all levels, better options in the red zone, and slightly better blocking. The offensive line is dinged up (Warford is out, Waddle may be as well), but fortunately Arizona isn't a team that gets a lot of pressure on the QB. The Cards have a stingy defense, but I expect the Lions to put up more than 24 points, which they haven't done since week 1. There aren't any changes on the defense since last week, so I expect a similar result. Good pressure on Stanton, and he should throw a couple picks.

Detroit has the #1 defense (I never get tired of saying this, I feel like Magic Johnson loving the sound of his own voice when ever I utter those words, verbally or in text) and are far better than any defense Arizona has faced. Keep in mind, the Cards saw the #2 defense in Denver (with Stanton as QB no less) and were held to 215 yards and 20 points. Denver beat the crap out of whoever was standing in at QB with 3 sacks and 11 hits. Detroit puts a similar level of pressure on opposing QBs, registering slightly higher in sacks and QB hits. Detroit's D is rough on QBs (33.9 QBR) and Stanton hasn't been good in the red zone (only 30% TDs in red zone appearances). Put me down for a final score of 27-17, and Stanton has a rough day.

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Yesterday I went on a bit about the posibility that the Tigers bring in Melky Cabrera. Another possible option is Cuban defector Yasmany Tomas. He's got decent power and a short swing, but probably needs to learn some plate discipline (have him hang out with Victor). The down side is what he will cost. The Tigers lost the bidding war to get Rusney Castillo, who signed with Boston for 7 years at roughly $11.5M/yr. Tomas is reportedly looking for a bit more than that.

Melky Cabrera would most likely hit for a higher average, but he's older, has less power, is probably a worse defender, and he'll be more expensive. Melky turned down a $15.3M qualifying offer in the hopes of getting a 3 year, $50M deal, which would average out to $16.7M/yr. That's nearly what Detroit signed Victor for, and Victor is a much better hitter. Tim Dierkes in MLB Trade Rumors predicts Yasmany Tomas will go for 7 years, $105M. That averages out to $15M/yr, which the Tigers would most likely backload if they were to agree to such a deal. If his rumored 30-HR power is real, I would take that deal any day of the week.