Little clearer picture of the Lions

Before the preseason kicked off, I predicted (admitting over-optimism) an 11-win season for the Lions in 2013 AND a playoff win. I stand by my prediction (and the over-optimism qualifier) because THIS IS FOOTBALL, and no one ever succeeded in football by being a wuss. Right? Right. However, after the 3rd preseason game I think there are a few tenuous conclusions we can make. 



1. Matthew Stafford is a 3rd-tier QB. I thought Stafford might be a 2nd tier guy, maybe even high-2nd tier. Well he isn’t. Not yet anyway. The presence of Calvin Johnson pushes Stafford’s production into 2nd tier. Without CJ in the passing game, Stafford was unable to move the offense with mediocre receivers. I’m not exactly BLAMING Stafford for the offense’s ineffectiveness, but he certainly hasn’t wowed me. The 2nd tier of QB’s would include guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and possibly Matt Schaub. I just can’t put Stafford with that group.



2. Secondary aside, this defense should be solid. I don’t think the secondary will be as good as it was when Eric Wright manned the CB spot opposite Chris Houston, but it should be ok if Slay cleans it up a little in coverage. Right now Slay and Bentley are still figuring things out and it’s, well, BAD. The S and DE spots are upgraded (Avril/KVB/Young/Lo-Jack < Jones/Ansah/Young/Idoneje and it’s not close), and I think whoever ends up with the other LB spot will be an upgrade over Durant last year. Possibly the biggest change/improvement is Suh taking on the leadership mantle. The D line is younger, faster, and has an edge that wasn’t there last year. They’ll score some points.



3. Special Teams will go from being a minus last year to a plus. This is a bigger deal than most people think. Sam Martin will be a top 5 punter, if he can remain consistent. Akers will adequately replace Jason Hanson (it’s sacrilege to say it, but the last couple of years Hanson lost distance and reliability on his FG’s), Martin is VERY good on kick offs, kick coverage is MUCH better, and kick returns are also improved. The Lions can chalk up a couple of losses (maybe even several) last year to poor special teams play. I don’t think they’ll WIN any games because their special teams, but they should have an edge over the majority of their opponents.



4. This is way late, but Mikel LeShoure was a wasted draft pick. So were Titus Young, Jahvid Best, and a dozen others I could name in the Martin Mayhew era. Not exactly news. This just struck me last night though – they traded up to get LeShoure in the 2nd round 2 years ago, and a few months later they picked up Joique Bell off of Houston’s practice squad. Who’s the better RB right now? I say Bell. 



The Jury is still out on...
- The offensive line. This unit will get fewer penalties than the previous group, but Reiff is not ideal at LT, and I’m not sure what I think of Fox or Warford just yet. We just haven’t seen enough of them to get a good assessment.

- The new-look offense with Reggie Bush. Evaluating this offense without CJ is like scouting an outfielder by watching him shag flies in batting practice. Plus, I think Linehan kept the playbook REALLY thin for the preseason. At least I hope he did. Anyway, there are a lot of options on how to use Bush and Linehan didn’t show us much. Basically I’m saying don’t rush to judge the offense based on what we’ve seen so far.

- Ziggy Ansah. He’s made some BIG plays, and he’s also disappeared at times. He’s probably ahead of the curve from where I thought he was on draft night, but is he a starter yet? I don’t know. Willie Young might be a shade better right now. I feel like Ansah will either take 3-4 games to really get going, or it might not happen this year.



The Lions need a few things to go right for my 11 win prediction to look good. The offense needs to get better at finding the end zone. The secondary needs to get tighter at the other CB spot. They can’t afford an injury to CJ, Bush or Suh. I feel like that isn’t asking a TON, and Chicago and Minnesota are overdue to come down. They would probably need 4 wins in the division (sweep CHI, split with MIN & GB), which is asking a lot but is believable.




Breaking down preseason is kind of silly, so I’m going to try & analyze Thursday night’s game in a regular season light. Let’s put on our hypothetical goggles and take another look at the game.



Stafford struggled to move the offense in the red zone, or to ever get on a roll offensively. This was largely a result of his receivers’ inability to get open. IN A REAL GAME Calvin Johnson would’ve put a Band-Aid on his bruised knee & suited up. CJ can get open anytime, and also opens things up for everyone else. Not saying the offense would’ve blown the doors off, but they probably would’ve gotten another 1st half TD.



With 2 sacks and a fumble recovery, you could argue that the player of the game for Detroit was DE Jason Jones (in fact, his buddies DID make that argument on the sidelines). IN A REAL GAME Belichek would’ve schemed to chip the ends more, or made some other adjustment in the 2nd half to quell the edge rush, like shorter drop-backs & quicker passes. The 2nd half would likely have been a different story, with the DE’s needing to get their hands up to knock down passes.



Tom Brady & the Pats limped into the half down by several scores. IN A REAL GAME I don’t think the halftime score would’ve been much different, maybe even skewed more toward the Lions’ favor. However, in real games the starters play the 2nd half as well. Belichek is VERY good at adjustments & would’ve come up with a few more ways to exploit the Lions’ weak secondary. The Lions are a better 2nd half team as well, mainly because Stafford is just a slow starter. I think both teams would probably have traded scores with New England playing a little better than Detroit, and the game’s outcome would not have been decided until the final minute (I believe I just lapsed into preterit-future-imaginary-subjunctive tense).



In conclusion, the preseason is WAY too long. Can we start this up already?

Tigers and Umps Oh My!

I had a post ready to publish about how great it was that the Tigers were winning all these games, running the table on the Indians and coming up with the clutch hits. I went into examining what changed over the winning streak that accounted for the change and how great it was to be a Tigers fan. Before I had a chance to make the final tweaks – insert highlights, links, etc – they lost a series to NY. Ok. Then they lost another series to Chicago. Meh. Then they lost a series to KFC (Kansas Freaking City). Officially concerned here.



Throwing errors, starting pitching falling down, relief pitching exposed (Coke & Alburquerque shouldn’t see the light of day), big hitters coming up with big outs in big spots…



This isn’t supposed to happen to this team. The Tigers have the best starting rotation in baseball. They have the best hitter in baseball. They have REALLY good middle defense – C, SS, 2B, CF (although the catchers can’t throw out the garbage) – and they’ve had solid hitting in the top ¾ of the lineup. But often in baseball, the unexplainable happens.



Saturday, for example. Fister threw a pitch in the dirt that the batter waved at for some reason & fouled off. Pena, the catcher, asked the ump for another ball except the ump wouldn’t give it. Pena was confused. Chris Getz was on first and decided to go for it, making it to 3rd before Fister picked up the ball that the ump inexplicably had ruled a wild pitch. Leyland came out to argue, the umps conferenced (next year this will become a reviewable play, but for now we have to put up with this BS) and ruled it a wild pitch, runner stays. Leyland argued, went back to the dugout (under protest, I presume), and then got thrown out by the ump on the opposite end of the field (I’ll never comprehend how that guy understood what Leyland said at that distance when I can hardly understand him when he’s got a microphone in his face). The runner on 3rd ended up scoring of course, Pena apparently made some comment while looking away from the home plate ump & got also tossed. I feel I should mention that this was John Hirschbeck’s crew that was umping this particular game, which probably explains the quick trigger.



What’s amazing about this? Well, a) calling a foul tip is relatively easy because you just listen for the sound AND the ball changes direction, b) none of the other umps heard or spotted anything despite BOTH the pitcher & catcher knowing it was tipped, and c) the umps gave the Tigers NO rope to argue once the call was made despite suspecting their ultimate call was incorrect. I’ve heard a lot of excuses for umps over the years – it’s a hard job, it’s a thankless job, the rules are often ambiguous, the speed of the ball is sometimes too fast for the eye to pick up – and these are all true… But on the other hand, there’s a LOT more at stake for the Tigers than there is for the umps (Fortunately the Tigers would go on to win this one with a walkoff in the 9th). 



There is no metric for how good an ump should be, little to no consequences for screwing up call after call (Angel Hernandez has been one of the worst umps in the league for a while & he still has a job). If a player displayed the incompetence of some of these umps, he’d get sent down or cut. If a manager, he’d be fired. If a GM, he’d be fired. There are consequences for failure (THAT sounded like Dr. Evil) at every job in baseball except umpire (and commissioner I guess). Expanding replay will help them get a few more calls right, but the underlying problem remains until the league figures out how to expand accountability.

It's very possible, given the state of umpiring today, that few of them would ever overturn a call based on replay.

I'm afraid the Lions are the mistake by the milake...

The Lions absolutely crapped the bed in their last preseason game vs. Cleveland. Really, I could care less if they win or lose in the preseason (always remember, 4-0 in 2008 led to 0-16), but I certainly want to see the starters play well. They didn't. They continued their penchant for getting whistled for rough play and the more annoying tendency not to score points or cover anyone. After all the moves they made (drafting Slay this year, Bentley last year, getting Quin in FA), the secondary still sucks. At the moment it seems they're willing to patch in cheap vets until one of the younger kids rises to the top.

Another problem is TE play. Pettigrew still can't catch. This is a problem. Stafford isn't good enough to overcome mediocre talent at every receiver position unoccupied by Calvin Johnson. He REALLY needs help at the TE spot, and he's not getting it. I know it's only preseason, but this offense is what will win Detroit games. It stalled too often last year, and I'm not sure how that gets fixed with the current personnel. Pettigrew looks more & more like a giant waste of a draft pick (drafted after him were Percy Harvin, Michael Oher, Clay Matthews, and Hakeem Nicks). Nobody besides CJ seems willing to step up.

I think a lot of this is on Stafford though. Yes, he has - outside of Calvin Johnson and probably Bush - ineffective tools to work with. He's able to do some basic QB things, but he hasn't shown much of that next level stuff like throwing a receiver open, or extending a play & making something good happen. His stats got a LOT of help from CJ last year, so I think they should be taken with a smallish grain of salt. If the Lions are going to make the playoffs like I hope (and predicted), Stafford will need to step it up.

Lions Preview & Preseason Breakdown

The Lions had a lot of moves to make in the offseason. To recap - they lost (to retirement or through free agency) DE Cliff Avril, RT Gosder Cherilus, LT Jeff Backus, RG Stephen Peterman, LB Justin Durant, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jason Hanson. They bolstered their offense by adding Reggie Bush in FA, the defense by adding S Glover Quinn & DE/DT Jason Jones, and looked to replace Hanson with David Akers. The draft added DE Ziggy Ansah, CB Darius Slay, G Larry Warford and a couple other guys who could all contribute in a meaningful way this year. That’s a LOT of turnover.



Don’t get me wrong, this is a team that needed some turnover, but there are a lot of question marks. Riley Reiff MIGHT be ready to replace Backus, but Reiff couldn’t even hold a starting job last year so that certainly isn’t a given. I don’t know who’s playing RG or RT yet. I don’t know who’s taking the LB spot vacated by Durant. Presumably Ansah will be one of the starting DE’s, the other could be either Willie Young or Jason Jones. The other CB (opposite Chris Houston) will either be the rookie Slay (if healthy), or more probably Bill Bentley.

What I Like:

The Lions have been built the past few years as an offensive team with an edge on defense. They had problems scoring TD’s last year though, and due to injury and selfishness/insanity, Calvin Johnson was Stafford’s only weapon. Adding Bush changes the dynamic of the offense & should force opposing defenses to respect the Lions’ line of scrimmage. If Burleson and Broyles are healthy, this offense should score a LOT of points.



This is the best I’ve felt about the defense in a LONG time. There’s a lot of inexperience at the DE spot, but at LOT of talent. Ansah could be a game changer. Fairley reportedly is in better shape & firing off more quickly, which means opposing offensive lines will have their hands full. I don’t think Slay will be healthy enough to start, but Bentley looked capable in spots last year and the safety position looks as solid as I can ever remember.



What I Don’t Like:
Injury has hampered this team. Losing Jahvid Best was probably the biggest blow, but they drafted Broyles after he had surgery to repair his ACL and lo & behold, he hurt his knee. They did a similar thing this year in drafting Slay. He’ll probably miss the first couple of games or start slow, and the risk of reinjuring or hurting his other knee is high. Burleson is coming off a serious injury last season, Louis Delmas is ALWAYS injured or at less than 100%... I don’t even want to mention Stafford, who’s been healthy the last 2 years. A team as thin as the Lions are can’t afford a serious injury, but they seem to get them all the time.



Special teams was a REAL weak point last year and cost the Lions at least 2 games. They cut Stefan Logan, but the problem was bigger than the return game. The Lions can’t afford to ignore this problem anymore. It seems like such a minor thing, special teams, but I recall a year in which San Diego had the #1 offense AND the #1 defense, yet failed to make the playoffs because their special teams were a disaster.



Lastly, there is a lot of unknown with this team. Ansah could be a defensive POY, or he could be 2 years away from holding a starting job. Reiff could be an improvement over Backus & help the run game, or he could whiff on a block in week 1 and get Stafford knocked out for the season. What will the kicking game be like without Hanson?



The Verdict:
I was going to do a best case/worst case like I did with the Pistons, but that’s kind of weak and this is football. I think the offense finds the best version of itself with Bush providing SOME balance, and Reiff does a better job than Backus (who looked like he was on skates at times) in the run game. Stafford doesn’t throw for 5,000 yards but improves his TD/INT ratio. CJ gets fewer yards than last year but leads the league in TD receptions. Ansah wins Defensive ROY, and the defense finishes in the top 10. With a top 10 defense and a top 5 offense, that’s good for 11 wins and a trip to the 2nd round of the playoffs.



Yes, I’m bold.

*****

So I watched the first quarter of the Lions first preseason game against the Jets (really, why watch more than that?). My impressions:

• Ansah looks for REAL, and this defense will score some points (and I LOVE his nickname, Ziggy Pop)
  
• It's too early to call it for the offense (they were clearly out of sync), but Bush is definitely going to help them win some games
  
• The offensive line will make some mistakes, but they'll be better than last year's group. Perhaps switching up O line coaches will help as well.

 Sorry for the lack of visual flair in this post, I'll try & make up for that next time.

Catching up with NBA FA, Trades, and My Running

It’s been a while since I checked in, so let me get up to speed.

First off, as you’re all aware, the Pistons signed F Josh Smith for a reasonably largish contract that pays him about $12M/yr for 4 years. That wasn’t a bad deal, and not really an overpay since he actually made more last year. Smith was the biggest name FA the Pistons had a shot of signing this summer, so in that sense you could call it a success. However, he’s more of a PF (Greg Monroe’s position) than a SF (Detroit’s biggest area of need), so he creates an awkward situation with the frontcourt. Additionally, Smith’s offense is most effective close to the rim and he’s one of the LEAST effective scorers from longer range (long 2’s and 3’s).

On the plus side, Smith is a superior defender who can cover 3’s and 4’s. He’s AMAZINGLY effective on offense when he doesn’t settle for a long 2, and he’s a great passing forward. Still, unless Monroe magically develops a 16 footer that he can convert at least 40% of the time, this offense will go through some serious dry spells. Good defenses will be able to slow or stop them.

So what happened next? They brought Chauncey Billups back, re-upped with Will Bynum, and snagged Italian league MVP Luigi Datome to perhaps pad the bench scoring. Then the BIG move – a sign & trade that sent Brandon Knight, Khris Middleton and Slava Kravsov to Milwaukee for PG Brandon Jennings. Jennings is getting $8M/yr for 3 years, which is a decent price for him.

I was hoping the Pistons would upgrade the PG spot, and it was looking like they weren’t going to until this deal. I like it. I think Knight has a chance to be a player, but not at PG and I don’t think he’ll be a starter. Not for several more years anyway. While Jennings’ decision making needs improvement (specifically shot selection), he’s got the tools to become a pretty good PG (which Knight just doesn’t have).

As it stands, the depth chart looks like this:
Jennings         Bynum           Siva
Billups/KCP    KCP/Billups    Stuckey
J. Smith         Singler           Datome
Monroe          Jerebko          Mitchell
Drummond   

Chauncey probably starts at the 2 guard until he gets injured. I can see KCP becoming a sort of 6th man, playing the 2 & the 3 with Smith sliding to the 4 from time to time. I like this team offensively, at least more than last year’s. There are 2 scorers (Jennings & Smith), Monroe can handle a secondary scoring role better than primary, there are plenty of 3PT shooters (Jennings, Billups, KCP, Singler and possibly Datome), and a Jennings-Billups backcourt will move & protect the ball MUCH better than Knight & Stuckey did.

On the defensive side, the Pistons are finally starting 2 plus defenders, with KCP being a possible third off the bench. Last year they started ZERO plus defenders, with Tayshaun being only a moderate defender (and traded away in February), Maxiell being too undersized to be a “plus defender”, and Drummond not getting the starting job until the season was basically over. Monroe sounds like he has improved his defense significantly, year 2 for Drummond ought to be good, and Smith is the best defender to wear a Pistons jersey since Ben Wallace left for Chicago.

Presuming the Pistons are done wheeling & dealing (at least until the trade deadline), here’s my verdict for the season:

Best Case Scenario – Drummond draws Defensive POY buzz, KCP does a decent Danny Granger impression, Jennings picks his spots & focuses more on involving others in the offense, Cheeks figures out a decent mix & match forward rotation, and the Pistons make the 2nd round of the playoffs as a 5 seed. 47 wins.

Worst Case Scenario – Drummond takes a step back, Smith & Monroe can’t coexist, Jennings goes rogue, KCP lives in the D league, and Cheeks never figures it out. 32 wins.

The Tigers hedged their bets (wisely) with Jhonny Peralta and dealt Avasail Garcia for Boston’s SS of the future, Jose Iglesias. Well, Peralta got his 50 game suspension and Iglesias has played in 3 different infield spots for the Tigers, acquitting himself well on the field and at the plate. Iglesias has drawn comparisons to Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel as a defensive wizard, and so far he’s looked the part.

While the Iglesias deal has gotten more press, the Tigers also acquired Jose Veras from Houston. Veras is a former closer and adds a solid arm to a bullpen in need of solid arms. At the moment I like the Tigers to represent the AL in the World Series. They appear to be hitting their late-season stride, similar to what they’ve done the past 2 years. Cleveland and KC are tougher Central Division opponents this year and it remains to be seen how the new playoff structure affects the Tigers, but so far it’s looking pretty good.

As far as my personal sports go, I’ve been improving by leaps & bounds. A couple of weeks ago I had a 15 mile long run. Two weeks prior I managed to get my 14 mile run in at just over 9:00 pace, so I was hoping for something similar. I decided to take 2 gel packs on my 15 mile run instead of 1, and we were in Midland that weekend, so I was running a different course. Well, I killed it.

It was cool and cloudy/foggy that morning. I hit the Rail Trail around 7am (I think) and ran a steady 9:00 pace for the first 7.5 miles. I still felt pretty energetic, so I kicked up my pace to about 8:30 for the rest of the way, finishing the whole 15 in 2:12:06. I was pretty stoked. I started pushing my pace in my shorter mid-week runs, and last Saturday I ran just over 6 miles in 44:56 (under 7:30 pace). I’ve got a 16 mile run this Saturday which I’m going to try to run at 8:30 pace the whole way.

At the moment my running gear includes brand new Stabilicore New Balance running shoes, an Amphipod water bottle & belt with a pocket, and Cliff Mocha Gel packets. The last thing I need is a timing watch (I’m currently still using the stopwatch on my cell, which works but isn’t ideal).

I’ve lost about 30 pounds, which is very noticeable to people who haven’t seen me in a couple months. Last weekend I played some basketball and tested my vertical (I’d noticed some improvement after blocking some guys I couldn’t block before). I was able to touch rim about 3 or 4 inches below my wrist. The rim is bent so it’s not a standard 10ft, but it’s still pretty high & I think I could probably dunk on it. I’m going to try it out next time we play.

It feels pretty good. In high school I was a decent athlete. Maybe 15% - 20% of the guys
that played sports were faster, stronger and could jump higher (I certainly wasn’t a “star athlete”), but playing in pickup games I was used to being better than average – soccer, football, basketball… That started going away after I got into my mid 20’s. I didn’t work out, I didn’t play sports on a regular basis, and I ate like crap. Well, I always ate like crap but I started paying for it then. I hated to lose that active/athletic part of my life, but there seemed to be little I could do about it.

My wife & I started working out on a regular basis when we got engaged. I dropped about 25 lbs. After we got married, we stopped & I gained about 10 lbs back. My wife encouraged me to pursue my bucket list goal to run a marathon, so I got on a diet & exercise program. I started losing weight again. I started & stopped a couple times, and then got going for good this January. Since THEN I’ve lost about 27 MORE pounds, bringing my total weight loss to 46 lbs since January 2010. I can jump at least 6 inches higher, I can run MUCH faster (my mile pace for a 10k has gone from about 9min to 7:30), and my belt tightens 3 notches higher. I’m in as good a shape as I was when I was 17 years old. Anyone can do it, you just have to want to (and having someone who loves you be so encouraging definitely helps BIGTIME). Motivation for the day.

Next time: Lions preview

Good 10K, Tigers Strike back, Pistons reboot BK7 at PG?

Good news! I ran my 10K last week Thursday up in Gaylord, and I ran REALLY well. The course ran through a nature preserve (that was donated to the county by the guy that invented the McD's fish fillet sandwich). The surface was mostly soft dirt (almost like sand), it mainly ran through woods, and it was cool and cloudy for most of the run. There were a couple of hills though. The course was a 5K loop, and one particular section toward the end of the course (in miles 3 & 6) that was about 1/4 mile of uphill running. My goal was to run it in 50:00, but with the hill I was VERY happy with my final time of 51:37 (about an 8:20 mile pace).

This weekend my long run is 14 miles. This marathon training is starting to get real. Every 2 weeks the long run increases by about 2 miles, so in another month I'll be doing a 20 mile long run. Anybody know a legal way to make your joints & ligaments 10 years younger?

Due to the long weekend, I got to catch up on some Tigers baseball. They had fallen behind Cleveland for the division lead, but that changed quickly. Detroit celebrated the announcing of 6 Tiger All Stars (and possibly a 7th!) by beating Cleveland 3 out of four in their series & taking a 3.5 game lead.

Not crazy about what the Pistons are doing. Reportedly they're signing the Italian League MVP Luigi Datome as a backup SF, which is fine, except I think it means they can't pursue Jeff Teague unless they amnesty Charlie V. This means Brandon Knight is probably the Pistons' starting PG for the 2013-'14 season. Unless he's figured out how to throw an entry pass, this is NOT good.

Running & NBA FA

I'm going to indulge myself a little & talk about my own stuff for a minute before getting into NBA free agency.

I ran 12 miles on Saturday. Actually, I estimated it at 12 miles but it was probably more like 12.2 (that 0.2 makes a huge difference!). My goal was to maintain a 9:00 mile pace, which I was able to due (basically. mostly. sorta.) through the first 9 miles, and then I slowed down quite a bit. I bought some goo and a water bottle belt to help get me through it. I probably looked like a giant geek, but I wasn't drying up on the pavement like a worm. Anyway, it was a nice run. I saw a couple animals that could have been beavers or possibly muskrats (I think muskrats), and the river was HIGH (I did a little recon to make sure the road wasn't still flooded).

I took Sunday & Monday off to let my body recover a bit, and then I ran 4 miles this morning. I'm running a 10k on Thursday & I'd like to complete it in 50:00, so I tried averaging 8:00 pace for my run today. After getting the first half-mile done in 4:20, I picked it up & finished in 32:27, pretty close to my goal. I think getting 2 more miles done at that speed is doable, which would put me right at 50:00.

So the draft is over, and the Pistons came out with mixed reviews. I wasn't happy with the Kentavious Caldwell-Pope pick (at least not over Burke), but I thought the 2 second-round picks were pretty good. Btw, did anyone else think #1 overall pick Anthony Bennett looked a little like Biz Markie? 

With the head coach hired & the draft over, there is one more off-season domino to fall: free agency. I'd hoped for better with the head coach, and I'm lukewarm on the draft. Since Joe Dumars' recent record in free agent decisions isn't spectacular (namely with Charlie V & Ben Gordon, plus overspending to re-sign Tay & Jerebko), I'm rather nervous. 

At the moment Dumars is in LA to meet with various free agents on the market, and he's already met with several (links per PistonPowered.com). Josh Smith was the first meeting (which indicates a Jim Schwartz-like move, except no offer extended, no bottle of wine, and probably no bromance), shortly followed by Andre Iguodala. OJ Mayo followed, then Tyreke Evans (who got a too-big offer from New Orleans that he should accept), and Jarrett Jack. They've expressed interest in Kevin Martin and backup big man Brandan Wright (among others), but as far as I know haven't met with them yet.

Whew.

One of the cheaper SF's that was available no longer is. Martell Webster re-signed with Washington, which disappoints me. He's a REALLY good three point shooter and defends the position well. So far the Pistons have only talked to a couple SF's - Iguodala & Josh Smith (who's really a PF that THINKS he's a SF). I guess Martin is a SF too, although he's kind of both SG & SF. Jack is a PG and the rest are SG's (which isn't REALLY a need). 

Anyway, ESPN's 5-on-5 didn't like Josh Smith's fit for the Pistons & neither do I. Hopefully they're just feeling out the market right now. I wouldn't mind Andre Iguodala at the right price, although it'd be nice to also get Kevin Martin to pair with him. Both players cover the G/F positions, one is a great defender and an ok offensive player, the other is a good offensive player and a bad defensive player. Martin could come off the bench & play with the first unit some, KCP could start and maybe get 20-25 min a night, if he's up for it. They'd still need a PG, but maybe they could sign Jack for the MLE.

The other move I'd like is if they'd make a play for Jeff Teague. Atlanta can opt to match any offer Detroit proposes, but they want to sign Dwight Howard. If they have their money tied up in a big FA, they might end up letting Teague go.

My trust in Joe Dumars this offseason has dwindled at an exponential rate. Can he get this right?

Weirdest Draft Ever

This was the weirdest NBA Draft I have ever witnessed. The guy everyone projected to go either #1 or #2 dropped to #6! Bennett, a guy many thought might slip to the Pistons at #8, went first overall. Cody Zeller went 4th... If they could combine his offense with Biyombo's D they might have a player (Codack Zellyombo), but how was Noel not the pick there? I have to think that something came out about Noel's knee that made a lot of teams squeamish.

The biggest surprise for me (after Bennett going #1) was the Pistons passing on Trey Burke to get Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. In my opinion, the Pistons have holes all along the perimeter. The 2 biggest holes (again, in MY opinion) are at PG and SF, with SG being more of a... pothole I guess. Taking a guard with the first pick would have implications on Joe Dumars' evaluation of Brandon Knight. If he had taken Burke, obviously he'd being saying Knight isn't a PG (he isn't), and since playing Knight with Burke would be bad defensively, I'd expect a trade that would ship Knight out. Taking a 2 guard to me suggests Dumars still thinks Knight can play PG (he can't), and that is my BIGGEST concern with this pick. Other than the fact that Dumars left the most talented player on the board so he could fill a need (when either pick would have filled a need).

Enough with that, on to the pick. Pope DOES in fact bring several things to the table that the Pistons lack. He's a big 2-guard at 6'6", he's got a nice outside shot, and he plays solid defense on the perimeter. The Pistons' biggest need from a skill-set standpoint was/is scoring. He averaged 18.5 ppg last year, shooting A LOT of threes (over half his shots). He converted at a decent clip (.433/.373/.799) and did other things too, like get steals & rebounds. My main concern is I think he needs a better PG than Detroit currently has on the roster to be an effective scorer in the NBA.

Sacramento did it to Detroit TWICE this draft. In the first round they took Ben McLemore a pick ahead of the Pistons (which probably means they're letting Evans go). In the second round they took Ray McCallum right before the Pistons... I liked McCallum as a pick if Detroit didn't end up with Burke in the first. I guess the Pistons didn't like Wolters enough right there because they grabbed Tony Mitchell with the first of their 2nd round picks. Mitchell was probably the best player on the board at that point anyway.

I like Mitchell's game A LOT. He's just about proto-type PF size, plays good post defense, and he can stretch it out on offense & make perimeter shots. For some reason his numbers dipped across the board in his 2nd season (possibly due to a coaching change), otherwise he would've been a first round pick. Downsides - he's got motor concerns, and he's... not exceptionally bright. 

I like the Pistons' last pick too. At #56, you're just hoping to get someone who can make the roster. Siva is that, and probably will end up as the Pistons' backup or 3rd PG. I'd like him to make his threes at a better rate, but he plays GREAT defense for his size, and he has the point guard gene (meaning he looks to pass & has great instincts).

Overall I'd give Dumars a 'C+' for this draft. Typical for him, he basically blew the 1st round pick and nailed the 2nd round. I hope KCP works out & he DOES fill a need, but Burke was the pick he SHOULD have made and it was pretty obvious. My hope is that Dumars makes a run at Jeff Teague in free agency, maybe working a sign & trade that would send Knight to Atlanta.

There were some interesting deals on draft night.

• Obviously there was the Trey Burke deal between MIN & UTA - the Jazz got Burke, T'wolves got Utah's 2 first rounders that they used on Shabazz and Dieng
• New Orleans dealt their pick (Nerlens Noel) & a protected 2014 first-rounder to Philly for Jrue Holliday and Philly's 2nd rounder
• The BIG deal was Boston sending Garnett, Pierce and Jason Terry to Brooklyn for Kris Humphries (yes, that Kris Humphries), Gerald Wallace, Kris Joseph, MarShon Brooks, Keith Bogans, and 2014, 2016 & 2018 first round picks. The picks are really the best part of this deal for Boston, but this SUCKS for Rondo, who'll be past his prime before they start to see any returns

Not a deal, but apparently Rasheed Wallace is in talks to become an assistant coach under Mo Cheeks here in Detroit. I have mixed feelings. On one hand, Wallace is a VERY smart player who knows the game well offensively & defensively and had a few coaching moments while he was here. On the other hand, he's got some crazy in him, led the league in technical fouls 4 times while in Detroit, and hasn't been a very hard worker throughout his career. I like Sheed, but I'm uneasy about this move. On the other hand, Rasheed has been friendly with players at every stop in his career and has no small amount of cred there (good quality in an assistant). I don't know...

Now that the Pistons have a new coach (bleh) and the NBA Draft is over (grrrrr), Dumars' next challenge is to master free agency. Given how the last 2 things went... I'm a little queasy. If he blows that, I'll start up a weekly Fire Joe Dumars post. This is getting out of hand.

All NBA Draft!

Chad Ford's Umpteenth Mock Draft (actual draft takes place tonight at 7pm), including my Cliff's Notes of Ford's analysis:
1. Cleveland picks Nerlens Noel The Cavs would prefer to trade the pick or could go for Len or Oladipo here, but Noel is most likely the pick.
2. Orlando picks Victor Oladipo If Noel is gone, it's probably between McLemore & Oladipo with Oladipo getting the edge
3. Washington picks Otto Porter Bennett is starting to get buzz here too
4. Charlotte picks Ben McLemore Other options being Len, Zeller, Bennett, or Porter (if he's there)
5. Phoenix picks Alex Len With the better scoring wings gone, it's between Len, MCW and Zeller
6. New Orleans picks Michael Carter-Williams It seems the team has soured on Greivis Vasquez despite his REALLY good season last year, and so PG is their #1 need (I disagree, but I don't run the team & it isn't my mock)
7. (the moment of truth) Sacramento picks C.J. McCollum According to Ford they want to trade this pick (probably to get Shabazz Muhammad 5 or 6 picks later), but if they don't, they like McCollum here as a shooting PG (I think he's a SG, which would give them the shortest perimeter in the league with Isaiah Thomas at 5'9", McCollum at 6'3", and Evans at 6'6")
8. Detroit picks... Anthony Bennett With Burke still on the board & PG a need I'd hope they would pick Burke, but Ford thinks they like Bennett too much to pass him up. More on this in a minute...

I'll skip most of the rest. Other notable picks - Zeller goes 11th to Philly, Burke 12th!!! to OKC, Giannis Antetokounmpo (say that 5 times fast... or 1 time at all) goes 17th to Atlanta (via Houston), Shabazz 18th to Atlanta (which is a HUGE steal in my opinion), and Hardaway 25th to the Clips.

A couple keys in this draft to look out for - does the #1 pick get traded, or does Cleveland pick someone besides Noel? What will Sacramento do? In last year's draft, I believe the #2 pick was the first event that led to Detroit getting Drummond. If Charlotte had picked Thomas Robinson 2nd (like many predicted they would), Drummond most likely would have been gone by the time the Pistons came up & they would have to chose between John Henson and Meyers Leonard.

In this mock, Ford has both Trey Burke AND Anthony Bennett available with Detroit's pick. I like Bennett ok, but out of all the players that could slip he's my least favorite. Hopefully either McLemore or Burke (or Porter!) slip instead & make Dumars' decision easier. I trust Dumars to make the correct call less and less every year.

Interesting tidbits:

• The Kings (one of the 2 CRUCIAL picks in this draft for Detroit) are talking about trading their pick to Utah, who want to get CJ McCollum. This is good for Detroit, because McCollum slipping ahead of them means probably Bennett, Burke, or (fingers crossed) McLemore (not THAT guy) slip back to 8th
• Weird rumor that Bennett could go #1 to Cleveland. I don't believe it, but it's out there
• More Bennett - he is more & more likely to go to Washington at #3, with more upside than Porter & a better fit with John Wall

If you haven't guessed, where Bennett goes is crucial (and also is anyone's guess). If he goes on the early side (like #1 or #3), it could push a bigger name like McLemore or Porter down to Detroit. It's possible if both he and Trey Burke are available with Detroit's pick & the Pistons go for Burke, then Bennett could slip as low as 10th or 11th, but I don't think it's likely.

The Finals are over (thank GOD), and the Draft is about to begin

I should say something about the NBA Finals, so I'll say this - I'm old. Game 7 started at 9pm. I opted to read a little and go to bed. I watched the last 5 minutes of the 1st quarter, then went upstairs. I joked a little with my wife the next morning, asking if she packed my prune juice & metamucil in my lunch. I wouldn't have liked the outcome anyway, given that I was rooting a) against the Heat, and b) for Tim Duncan & the Spurs. 

I had switched over to kind of rooting for the Heat this year, given their level of play. I would describe it as a begrudging admiration. LeBron lost me this playoffs, however. He's become a massive whiner, and he complains about good calls & bad calls with equal intensity. He does it in a way that borderlines on pro wrestling showmanship, playing to the crowd. Drives me nuts. It's actually taken him out of the play several times this finals, which should never happen with a great player, but it happens with LeBron a lot. He's still growing up. I used to hate Duncan for his Tim Duncan Face, which he put on any time a call went against him. He's basically put it away & I've found it easier to like him.

Anyway, Spurs lost, Heat won, on to the draft...

...Which is tomorrow! I've really been looking forward to the draft, especially since Dumars flubbed the coach hiring. It actually reminded me of The Office episode "Halloween" in season 1, where Michael decided to fire Devon instead of Creed because he'd already talked to Creed & didn't want to look stupid. Kind of like how several high quality coaches became available (or more likely to sign with Detroit), but Dumars was already on his 3rd interview with Cheeks & didn't want to look stupid. Yes, I just compared Joe Dumars to Michael Scott. That's not good.

Anyway, it's looking like 1 of a couple top prospects could slip to the Pistons at the 8th pick, which would almost make up for the fact that they didn't tank and played themselves back by 3-7 picks. If Zeller or McCollum slip into the top 7 picks, Detroit could be in really good shape. First, Trey Burke is definitely in play. The Magic could end up with Noel if CLE goes another way, or they could pick Oladipo (like most think they will). After that, there are only a couple of teams that are even THINKING of drafting a PG and they both seem to be lukewarm on Burke.

Second, Bennett is probably more likely than Burke to slip. He needs to drop some weight and work on his speed if he's going to be an NBA SF (at the moment he's a combo-forward, which isn't great), but he's got the skills that make him well worth the pick.

Lastly is Ben McLemore (yeah, nbadraft.net did a mock in which Detroit got Porter, but they're CRAZY). His stock has been slipping since the combine, and he's basically flipped places with Oladipo. This is probably a case of over exposure, like HD making an attractive person look less so because you can count their pores. McLemore has his flaws, but so does everyone in this draft. I don't think he falls to the Pistons, but it's in play.

There has been lots of talk about trading picks in this draft, more than usual to be sure. A couple possibilities are trading back to OKC's pick at 12 or Dallas' pick at 13 (which would include taking on Shaw Marion's contract). Shabazz Muhammad might be still around then, or a guy like Dennis Schroeder. I'll be sure to check in tomorrow if there's any late moves worth talking about.

Personal sports update & NBA mocks...

How about a little personal sports update before getting to the nitty gritty? I may have mentioned before that I was playing in a soccer tournament the weekend before last. Well, it didn't go so great. We made the semis but lost there 4-0. I played okay all weekend. Made some mistakes, but only one was costly. I made several good plays too, but I've been thinking about getting into a soccer club or playing on a regular basis. I'd like to get good enough to play center back, but I need more reps. I played a little there in our last game, but I don't always know where the play is going and I don't always get a good read on the ball.

I played a decent amount. I played the entire first game, then our captain switched up our alignment & I was the odd man out, so I missed the second game. I played in about a third of the 3rd game and 3/4 of the last game. Like I said, I played a little center back (I ended up having a decent amount of energy despite being the oldest guy on the field at the time), but mainly right fullback. 

Last weekend I went on my longest run ever. I was still a little tight from soccer the previous weekend (my right hamstring clenched up on me in the last game), so my goal was to average a 9 min mile pace. I finished 10 miles in 1:35:55, which is a little over a 9:30 pace. I was on trace for a while, but my legs died in the final 2 miles. Yesterday I spent a little more time stretching & managed 4 miles in 33:49, which is just under 8:30 pace. I saw a tortoise & a hare on my run (not sure what that signifies). My long run this weekend is 8 miles, and I'd like to hold an 8:30 pace this time.

On to the professional sports scene...

There have been umpteen NBA mock drafts by now, and the Pistons have picked just about 6 different players. There's hardly a consensus in this draft. SI has them currently taking Michael Carter-Williams, a 6'6" PG from Syracuse who can't shoot and turns it over a TON. Chad Ford most recently has them taking Trey Burke. Now that's more like it.

For a while Burke has been considered one of the top 6 talents in the draft. As so often happens, values have shifted around based on different teams' needs and projections of upside. So how does Burke end up slipping to Detroit? Well, it starts with Orlando taking Oladipo. Ford thinks they'll trade for a PG, so Burke would be a luxury at that point. The next piece to fall is New Orleans, who he has taking Alex Len. The Pelicans had a decent PG last year in Greivis Vasquez, but the word is they aren't satisfied with him. Ford thinks they'll try to make Austin Rivers into their starting PG (WHAT???) and draft a big to pair with Anthony Davis. The final piece is Sacramento. They also have a PG in Isaiah Thomas (not Isiah, don't get giddy), but he's only OK at best. Still, for some reason he has them taking MCW over Burke.

I'd love to get Burke. He'd be about 4th or 5th on my list out of all the players in the draft. I've thought for a while now that he could slip to the Pistons at #8, so keep your fingers crossed.

San Antonio blew it last night. I don't know how they win game 7 after choking like that. There were several times I thought they were going to put the game away and Miami came back like mad. 

I've heard this tune before...

Finally the Pistons' coaching search is over, with Maurice Cheeks winning the job over several more intriguing candidates. Why don't I like this hire? Well, Cheeks has been the epitome of mediocrity as a head coach. He's never won a playoff series, been fired mid-season twice, and missed the playoffs 5 out of 8 seasons (counting the 2 when he was fired before the end of the year). Add to that the fact that he hasn't been working under a great coaching mind (Scottie Brooks got severely out-coached by Lionel Hollins, who was in turn SPANKED by Greg Popovich), and there isn't a lot of hope for more than mediocre results.

I got the feeling that Dumars was pretty locked into hiring a former player, which is stupid, but fits how he's ran things so far. After LB skipped town, Dumars wanted someone who would be more compliant and more offensively minded, so he hired Flip Saunders. After Saunders lost the locker room, Dumars wanted someone the players would respect, so he hired Michael Curry. After Curry made EVERY rookie coaching mistake possible, Dumars wanted someone with more X's and O's knowledge so he hired Kuester. After Kuester beefed with nearly EVERYONE on the team, Dumars wanted someone with head coaching experience and hired Lawrence Frank (although he would have preferred Mike Woodson). With Frank struggling to connect with the players, Dumars decided he wanted a coach with head coaching experience AND playing experience (Villanueva said several times he had problems respecting Frank because he "never played the game". The lesson here is DON'T BASE YOUR HIRE ON WHAT CHARLIE V SAYS).

The top 5 coaches in the league right now are probably Greg Popovich, Rick Carlisle, Tom Thibodeau, George Karl (whenever he gets a new job), and Doc Rivers. Guys threatening to climb the ladder: Kevin McHale (did wonders in Houston), Monty Williams (nothing to work with), Mike Budenholzer (wait & see), Frank Vogel, and Mark Jackson.  Of that top 5 group, Pop and Thibodeau never played NBA ball, and Carlisle and Karl were only minor bench players. Of the second group, Budenholzer and Vogel never played NBA ball, and Monty Williams was a career bench guy. Out of both groups, Popovich, Thibodeau, Monty Williams, Budenholzer and Vogel all had zero NBA head coaching experience before coming into their current jobs.

A good coach can be a former player, a scout, a GM, an assistant coach, or a guy that was fired from his previous HC job. Dumars seems to have centered his preferences within non-essential parameters like "has HC experience" and "is a former player" instead of going outside the box. Mike Budenholzer would have been outside the box for Joe D, and Zelly Obradovich would've been even more so. Instead we get a hire that reminds me of the past 3 HC hires - listless and uninspired.

I'm not optimistic (obviously) that this will work out, but allow me to spend a paragraph rebutting myself. It's possible that Cheeks has gotten a bit of a bad rap. That Trailblazers team was difficult to work with, and the 76ers were constantly a team in transition while he was at the helm. Detroit is almost a tabula rasa, and that could be a good thing for Cheeks. Some coaches prefer to go into a situation practically tailor-made for their style, others prefer to mold the team themselves. Mo Cheeks might be one of the latter types. The best coaching he ever did was with the 2007-'08 76ers, which had the youngest roster in the league.  Making odds up on the spot, I'd say Cheeks has a 10-15% shot at finding the magic here.

Stay Tuned for Game 7...

Reasons why I think the Heat will win tonight:

1. Birdman is back. The Heat missed him last game, and with their secondary players (not LeBron) struggling to score, they need Chris Andersen. Sad.
2. LeBron's supporting cast will play better. In the last game, LeBron made 10 shots and the rest of the team made 16. Either Allen or Battier will start making shots, or Wade will come back to life.
3. The TV ratings for a Pacers-Spurs Finals matchup would be quite low. Remember how everyone complained about the Pistons-Spurs in 2005 (well, everyone outside of Michigan and Texas)? This would be worse. And it's a shame, because the Pacers are a REALLY good team. Expect a fair few questionable fouls called if Indiana has a late edge. Remember this?

Reasons why Indian might win:

1. Dwyane Wade is DONE. He's shooting .403/.333/.739 the last 5 games, averaging 13, 4 & 5. Bosh looks DONE. Worse than Wade, he's shooting .378/.538/.833, averaging 10 & 4 the last 5 games. WHAT?
2. Indiana isn't scared of Miami, and they aren't scared of playing there. Really this series should be over already with Indiana getting ready for San Antonio, but Miami stole game 1 with that crazy layup by LeBron in OT.
3. The NBA is no longer able to pull a snow-job like they did in the 2002 WCF with the Lakers and the Kings. Everyone was suspicious at the time, but the Donaghey thing woke everyone up.

I think this goes to Miami, that LeBron gets a little help from his friends and a little from the refs. Not '02 WCF Game 6 help, but maybe '06 Finals Beno Salvatore help.

The Search for Coach

Not much going on in the Detroit Sports Scene right now. The Tigers are locked in a tight division race with Cleveland, but it's still early. The Wings lamentably were knocked out of the playoffs after being up 3 games to 1. The Lions are still patching together a team...

Which brings us to the Pistons. They're still mired in the search for their next coach. At this point I'm a little embarassed for them. Budenholzer (my favorite candidate for the job) was offered a job with Atlanta & took it. I'm not sure if he would've picked Detroit over Atlanta had Dumars extended an offer, but we'll never know now. Larry Drew (another name to pop up) took a job with the Bucks. Brian Shaw still can't meet with teams yet (his team is still alive vs. Miami), but he's one of the 2 favorites to win the Clippers' job.

That leave us with 3 main candidates:

• Nate McMillan - He's been one of the top guys available since the process started. He's not a sexy hire, but he's a solid coach.
• Maurice Cheeks - Joe D likes him, and it's probably close to even between him and McMillan. Cheeks is a mediocre coach, but he WOULD be a step up from Frank. Barely.
• Lionel Hollins - He looks very similar in style to McMillan. Got severely out-coached in the playoffs by Popovich, much like McMillan going against Rick Adelman. He wants to stay in Memphis, but Dumars should at least give him a look

Today began week 1 of my 20 week marathon training program. After playing 2 hours of basketball on Saturday and 2 1/2 hours of soccer on Sunday, I wasn't really feeling up to it. Still, I got up, limped out the door and ground out 3 miles in 26:38, which isn't great for me, but I wasn't feeling great. Actually, I felt good about doing as well as I did.

After my shower, I weighed myself and my jaw about dropped. I haven't weighed under 200 lbs since my senior year of high school. I was a muscular 195-220 lbs that year. Well, now I'm a slightly less-muscular 195. I'd like to pack on a little more muscle, but overall I'm pretty happy right there.

I should say a little about soccer too. I'm playing in a 2-day tournament this weekend and have gotten out exactly twice to kick a ball around. Yesterday was really the only actual practice I've had in a year, so I still feel a bit rusty. I got pretty tired in the 2nd half of our scrimmage, but hopefully that was a product of playing a ton of basketball on Saturday and not me just being old.

A Temporal Back-Track to catch us up...

***Once again, travel back in time to Friday, when I started writing this. Read from the perspective of one writing in a temporal cul-de-sac, back when the Wings had a 2 game lead on Chicago and were one win away from the Western Conference Finals***

The Wings went up 3 games to 1 last night against Chicago. Unbelievable game. Both goalies stood on their heads. I thought it was a very even game, great scoring chances for both teams. Chicago ended up hitting the post twice, Detroit got a power play goal and an empty netter. That was the difference. 

***Ok, back to the current timeline in which the situation is less happy***

So what do you do with a team that fell behind expectations by barely making the playoffs, exceeded expectations by beating a VERY tough Anaheim team, didn't live up to expectations in game 1 vs. Chicago, once again exceeded expectations in games 2-4, but ultimately failed to meet expectations by losing the next 3 games and the series?

I missed the last couple of games due to a combination of camping over the holiday weekend and the games being broadcast over NBCSN, which I don't get. Based on what I DID see of game 7, the 'Hawks had more chances, skated better & deserved to win. Jimmy Howard stood on his head & was the better goaltender in a well tended series (for the most part), but the Wings' youth undid them.

What's the prognosis? Well, better than it was last summer. Brunner was great, I'd like them to re-sign him. The other young guys are still under contract and show lots of promise. Remember, DeKeyser was one of Detroit's better defensemen before he got knocked out of the playoffs in the Anaheim series. Abdelkader and Nyquist both looked great, and hopefully they'll be getting Darren Helm back (which will be HUGE).

On the Pistons front, somehow they haven't hired a coach yet. This is surprising, since Dumars wanted to have this done before the combine (which was almost 2 weeks ago). There are two likely explanations: 1) He didn't think the Pacers would still be alive at this point & thought he'd already have interviewed Brian Shaw, or 2) Dumars is in a power battle with Gores and Phil Jackson and is trying to keep his job while also getting HIS choice for coach instead of THEIR choice.

I really hope it's the first explanation. There's only one possible good outcome (semi-good anyway) of the second explanation (Phil takes a front office job as well as Head Coach & brings in Shaw to be his eventual replacement) and several disasterous outcomes (the franchise hits the reset button, Dumars & Gores remain entangled in a power battle all year, etc.).

Good news on the NBA Draft front, however. Shabazz Muhammad is starting to grow on me, and not in a bad, fungal sort of way. ESPN's Chad Ford wrote a piece on Muhammad's potential, and it was pretty encouraging. My main concerns with Muhammad were that he's basically a one-dimensional player and that dimension (scoring) might not translate well to the NBA. If you don't have an Insider account, here are the Cliff's Notes:

• Muhammad was at the P3 Center to test his physical movements & get his game more NBA-ready
• Despite having only a slightly above average vertical, he gets up QUICK. So while he doesn’t jump out of the gym, he’s pretty explosive
• That explosiveness hasn’t translated to his lateral movement yet, but they’re working on it
• Right now he tests as an average athlete for a wing, but he has the physical tools to be above average (but not elite)
• His shot mechanics are bad but look correctable. This is probably why his shot was so streaky
• In addition to working on his mechanics, they created a series of drills based off of moves James Harden uses to get his shot off

Three things jumped out at me - his potentially getting some lateral explosiveness (which would improve his D and ability to blow by defenders), correcting his shot mechanics, and developing some James Harden moves. If he can even be 2011 James Harden (good D, a VERY efficient 17 pts off the bench), I'd take that in a heartbeat. I think Harden is a good player for Muhammad to emulate. Similar height & build, similar athleticism... Harden was a better and more willing passer, and he shot a bit better than Muhammad did.

At this point if the top 6 prospects (Noel, McLemore, Porter, Oladipo, Burke, and Bennett) are taken when Detroit drafts at #8, I'm getting more comfortable with the idea of taking Muhammad. I probably still wouldn't take him over Bennett, Burke or Oladipo, but he might end up being the better player. Time will tell.

Surprisingly there's a fair bit of Lions' news as well. In the "Titus Young Needs Jesus" Saga, apparently the NFL reached out to him before his three arrests in an attempt to get him some help. Titus said no. It was good to hear that they tried (the NFL has notoriously dropped the ball in the past with player mental health issues), but sadly this was a lesson Titus has to learn the hard way (or not at all).

The Titus Young news reminds that WR is somehow still a need for these Lions, but one that Nate Burleson thinks they've got under control. Patrick Edwards didn't play last year due to in consistent hands and later a hamstring injury. He's playing now & might make the roster as a #3 or #4 WR. The Lions signed a Pro Bowl special teamer (one of their BIG areas of weakness last year). Kevin Seifert thinks Lions rookie DE Ziggy Ansah can get at least 10 sacks this fall, something that's only been done by a rookie 31 times in the 31 years that they've tracked sacks. If any DE in this rookie class is going to do it, Ansah is the most likely. The main concern with this team is still the OL, which is still TBD at RT and RG.

Miguel Cabrera got high praise from one of baseballs most talented and arrogant former players. Unfortunately the Tigers haven't been playing that well, and lost their last 3 games. They're in a bit of a swoon this month due to some poor starting pitching, Verlander being the worst of the lot. Hitting-wise, Cabrera's still phenomenal but getting little help from the rest of the pack. Cabrera has hit 11 HR in May (that's a TON), but the rest of the team combined for only 20 more, which is about 10 below league average (not good). Apparently Nick Castellanos is ready for a call-up, but the question would be where to put him. He's a natural SS and also plays third well, but Cabrera is the team's best player & Peralta is one of the few guys hitting well. He'll probably end up in the OF, but when that will be, no one knows.

Wings Edge 'Hawks, Pistons Lotto-screwed

*I started writing this post yesterday & didn't finish until this morning, so expect a double-shot posting today. Keep in mind the contents below were written without the knowledge of the results of Wings-'Hawks game 4...

The Red Wings surprised me. I didn't think they'd ever have the lead in this series, especially not after game 1. They didn't look like they belonged on the ice, lost basically every battle and looked like they were on the penalty kill all game. It sucks, but I pretty much agreed with this guy. Which goes to show you can't base your opinion of a series on the first game.

Howard has been outstanding though, and looks to be winning the goalie battle. He's made some spectacular stops and his counterpart, Crawford, has let in a couple soft goals. Game 2 was pretty good, although I thought the Wings were going to blow it in the 3rd like they had several times already. Instead they ran away with it.

I missed game 3 but caught the highlights the next day. Once again the Wings out-skated the 'hawks, stoning them on one end and making the most of their chances on the other.

Once again the Pistons got hosed in the draft lottery. Slotted in at #7 (and a 3.6% shot at the #1 pick) after winning the coin-toss against Washington, they ended up at #8 when Washington won the 3rd pick (again). The Wizards of Washington are a perennial lottery participant, picking 3rd in 2012, 6th in 2011, 1st in 2010, and would've been 5th in 2009 (traded the pick). The Pistons picked 9th in 2012 (with a 25-43 record to Washington's 20-46), 8th in 2011 (30-52 to Washington's 23-59), and 7th in 2010 (27-55 to Washington's 26-56). This year they finished with the same record, but Detroit picks 8th and Washington picks 3rd. 

The Pistons have been hosed by some bad luck, along with a refusal to tank in which they were (nearly) alone. Over the past 4 years the Pistons' record in the last 10 games of the season is .450, about .100 higher than their regular season record. That's pretty significant.  Playing at that level over 82 games would've gotten them into the playoffs at least once.

Tanking has been a problem for a long time, and teams like Detroit get penalized for doing it, while notorious tank jobs from teams like Charlotte, Cleveland and Golden State have been rewarded. I'm getting on the bandwagon with Bill Simmons for his proposal of the "entertaining as hell tournament". Basically the bottom 18 teams do a March Madness-style tournament for the 7 & 8 seeds in the playoffs, and the losers all have a 1 in 14 shot at the top 3 picks. I'm in.

Wings go to Chicago

Work's been busy, so I haven't posted in a couple days. Allow me to catch up a little.

I ended up watching the Wings OT win in game 6 with my dad, still not having much hope of taking game 7 in Anaheim. This is a fun & frustrating Wings team. They had one goal where Wings' defenseman Brendan Smith skated into a ricochet and accidentally knocked in the Ducks' first goal. The second goal is on Wings C Valteri Filpula, who was carrying the puck & blindly passed it behind his own net to Emerson Etem (plays for the other team).

These kinds of breakdowns in the defensive zone cannot happen if the Wings are going to have a chance against Chicago in this series. Repeat, CANNOT happen. Blackhawks G Corey Crawford is lights out & goals will be at a premium for the Wings. They can't afford to give up easy ones.

Regardless, the Wings found a way to win game 6. I missed game 7 because it started at 10pm and I get up around 5:30am for my morning run. Here are the highlights:

Nice shorthanded breakaway goal by Abdelkader. Ericsson watches a goal go in off his skate. The good and bad with this team.

Anyway, on to the Blackhawks. The Wings' traditional rivals, although there's less recent history with them than, say San Jose. Still, no time like the present, right? This will be the last conference post-season meeting between the 2 teams since Detroit is changing conferences next year. NHL.com broke down the matchups, but here are the Cliff Notes:

• Chicago features 2 all-world forwards in Toews and Kane, neither of which scored a goal in the last series. If they stay cold this series then Detroit probably wins, but that isn't likely
• Chicago has a solid group of defensemen that don't score a lot of points but do a good job of keeping the other team from scoring

I'd say the goalie spot is a wash. Crawford's stats are better, but so is his defense. Most of Howard's goals have come off defensive breakdowns. I don't watch enough hockey to say for certain whether Datsyuk and Zetterberg are better than Toews and Kane or not. If you factor in the fact that the Wings' Euro-Twins are probably the 2 best defensive forwards in hockey (and you should DEFINITELY factor that in), then it's pretty close to a wash. With Hossa & Sharp, Chicago has a great 2nd set of forwards. I think Abdelkader is the wildcard, in that if he can stay out of the penalty box, Chicago is in trouble. If he starts racking up power plays for the 'hawks, Detroit is done.

The NBA coaches voted on the All-Rookie 1st and 2nd teams... somehow Drummond didn't make the 1st team, despite being 4th in ROY voting. WHAT? The coaches apparently went to ESPN NBA stats, filtered by rookies and sorted by points per game, because that's how the order of the voting went. The top 5 scoring rookies made the 1st team, the next five made the 2nd team. Why are the coaches voting on this again? They maybe get 1 or 2 looks at each guy, and really have better things to do that study tape and figure out which 10 rookies are the best in which order.

Lions rookie camp was last weekend. Titus Young needs Jesus, and the Lions' 2011 draft class has been pretty bad so far.