Before the preseason kicked off, I predicted (admitting over-optimism) an 11-win season for the Lions in 2013 AND a playoff win. I stand by my prediction (and the over-optimism qualifier) because THIS IS FOOTBALL, and no one ever succeeded in football by being a wuss. Right? Right. However, after the 3rd preseason game I think there are a few tenuous conclusions we can make.
1. Matthew Stafford is a 3rd-tier QB. I thought Stafford might be a 2nd tier guy, maybe even high-2nd tier. Well he isn’t. Not yet anyway. The presence of Calvin Johnson pushes Stafford’s production into 2nd tier. Without CJ in the passing game, Stafford was unable to move the offense with mediocre receivers. I’m not exactly BLAMING Stafford for the offense’s ineffectiveness, but he certainly hasn’t wowed me. The 2nd tier of QB’s would include guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and possibly Matt Schaub. I just can’t put Stafford with that group.
2. Secondary aside, this defense should be solid. I don’t think the secondary will be as good as it was when Eric Wright manned the CB spot opposite Chris Houston, but it should be ok if Slay cleans it up a little in coverage. Right now Slay and Bentley are still figuring things out and it’s, well, BAD. The S and DE spots are upgraded (Avril/KVB/Young/Lo-Jack < Jones/Ansah/Young/Idoneje and it’s not close), and I think whoever ends up with the other LB spot will be an upgrade over Durant last year. Possibly the biggest change/improvement is Suh taking on the leadership mantle. The D line is younger, faster, and has an edge that wasn’t there last year. They’ll score some points.
3. Special Teams will go from being a minus last year to a plus. This is a bigger deal than most people think. Sam Martin will be a top 5 punter, if he can remain consistent. Akers will adequately replace Jason Hanson (it’s sacrilege to say it, but the last couple of years Hanson lost distance and reliability on his FG’s), Martin is VERY good on kick offs, kick coverage is MUCH better, and kick returns are also improved. The Lions can chalk up a couple of losses (maybe even several) last year to poor special teams play. I don’t think they’ll WIN any games because their special teams, but they should have an edge over the majority of their opponents.
4. This is way late, but Mikel LeShoure was a wasted draft pick. So were Titus Young, Jahvid Best, and a dozen others I could name in the Martin Mayhew era. Not exactly news. This just struck me last night though – they traded up to get LeShoure in the 2nd round 2 years ago, and a few months later they picked up Joique Bell off of Houston’s practice squad. Who’s the better RB right now? I say Bell.
The Jury is still out on...
- The offensive line. This unit will get fewer penalties than the previous group, but Reiff is not ideal at LT, and I’m not sure what I think of Fox or Warford just yet. We just haven’t seen enough of them to get a good assessment.
- The new-look offense with Reggie Bush. Evaluating this offense without CJ is like scouting an outfielder by watching him shag flies in batting practice. Plus, I think Linehan kept the playbook REALLY thin for the preseason. At least I hope he did. Anyway, there are a lot of options on how to use Bush and Linehan didn’t show us much. Basically I’m saying don’t rush to judge the offense based on what we’ve seen so far.
- Ziggy Ansah. He’s made some BIG plays, and he’s also disappeared at times. He’s probably ahead of the curve from where I thought he was on draft night, but is he a starter yet? I don’t know. Willie Young might be a shade better right now. I feel like Ansah will either take 3-4 games to really get going, or it might not happen this year.
The Lions need a few things to go right for my 11 win prediction to look good. The offense needs to get better at finding the end zone. The secondary needs to get tighter at the other CB spot. They can’t afford an injury to CJ, Bush or Suh. I feel like that isn’t asking a TON, and Chicago and Minnesota are overdue to come down. They would probably need 4 wins in the division (sweep CHI, split with MIN & GB), which is asking a lot but is believable.
1. Matthew Stafford is a 3rd-tier QB. I thought Stafford might be a 2nd tier guy, maybe even high-2nd tier. Well he isn’t. Not yet anyway. The presence of Calvin Johnson pushes Stafford’s production into 2nd tier. Without CJ in the passing game, Stafford was unable to move the offense with mediocre receivers. I’m not exactly BLAMING Stafford for the offense’s ineffectiveness, but he certainly hasn’t wowed me. The 2nd tier of QB’s would include guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and possibly Matt Schaub. I just can’t put Stafford with that group.
2. Secondary aside, this defense should be solid. I don’t think the secondary will be as good as it was when Eric Wright manned the CB spot opposite Chris Houston, but it should be ok if Slay cleans it up a little in coverage. Right now Slay and Bentley are still figuring things out and it’s, well, BAD. The S and DE spots are upgraded (Avril/KVB/Young/Lo-Jack < Jones/Ansah/Young/Idoneje and it’s not close), and I think whoever ends up with the other LB spot will be an upgrade over Durant last year. Possibly the biggest change/improvement is Suh taking on the leadership mantle. The D line is younger, faster, and has an edge that wasn’t there last year. They’ll score some points.
3. Special Teams will go from being a minus last year to a plus. This is a bigger deal than most people think. Sam Martin will be a top 5 punter, if he can remain consistent. Akers will adequately replace Jason Hanson (it’s sacrilege to say it, but the last couple of years Hanson lost distance and reliability on his FG’s), Martin is VERY good on kick offs, kick coverage is MUCH better, and kick returns are also improved. The Lions can chalk up a couple of losses (maybe even several) last year to poor special teams play. I don’t think they’ll WIN any games because their special teams, but they should have an edge over the majority of their opponents.
4. This is way late, but Mikel LeShoure was a wasted draft pick. So were Titus Young, Jahvid Best, and a dozen others I could name in the Martin Mayhew era. Not exactly news. This just struck me last night though – they traded up to get LeShoure in the 2nd round 2 years ago, and a few months later they picked up Joique Bell off of Houston’s practice squad. Who’s the better RB right now? I say Bell.
The Jury is still out on...
- The offensive line. This unit will get fewer penalties than the previous group, but Reiff is not ideal at LT, and I’m not sure what I think of Fox or Warford just yet. We just haven’t seen enough of them to get a good assessment.
- The new-look offense with Reggie Bush. Evaluating this offense without CJ is like scouting an outfielder by watching him shag flies in batting practice. Plus, I think Linehan kept the playbook REALLY thin for the preseason. At least I hope he did. Anyway, there are a lot of options on how to use Bush and Linehan didn’t show us much. Basically I’m saying don’t rush to judge the offense based on what we’ve seen so far.
- Ziggy Ansah. He’s made some BIG plays, and he’s also disappeared at times. He’s probably ahead of the curve from where I thought he was on draft night, but is he a starter yet? I don’t know. Willie Young might be a shade better right now. I feel like Ansah will either take 3-4 games to really get going, or it might not happen this year.
The Lions need a few things to go right for my 11 win prediction to look good. The offense needs to get better at finding the end zone. The secondary needs to get tighter at the other CB spot. They can’t afford an injury to CJ, Bush or Suh. I feel like that isn’t asking a TON, and Chicago and Minnesota are overdue to come down. They would probably need 4 wins in the division (sweep CHI, split with MIN & GB), which is asking a lot but is believable.
Breaking down preseason is kind of silly, so I’m going to try & analyze Thursday night’s game in a regular season light. Let’s put on our hypothetical goggles and take another look at the game.
Stafford struggled to move the offense in the red zone, or to ever get on a roll offensively. This was largely a result of his receivers’ inability to get open. IN A REAL GAME Calvin Johnson would’ve put a Band-Aid on his bruised knee & suited up. CJ can get open anytime, and also opens things up for everyone else. Not saying the offense would’ve blown the doors off, but they probably would’ve gotten another 1st half TD.
With 2 sacks and a fumble recovery, you could argue that the player of the game for Detroit was DE Jason Jones (in fact, his buddies DID make that argument on the sidelines). IN A REAL GAME Belichek would’ve schemed to chip the ends more, or made some other adjustment in the 2nd half to quell the edge rush, like shorter drop-backs & quicker passes. The 2nd half would likely have been a different story, with the DE’s needing to get their hands up to knock down passes.
Tom Brady & the Pats limped into the half down by several scores. IN A REAL GAME I don’t think the halftime score would’ve been much different, maybe even skewed more toward the Lions’ favor. However, in real games the starters play the 2nd half as well. Belichek is VERY good at adjustments & would’ve come up with a few more ways to exploit the Lions’ weak secondary. The Lions are a better 2nd half team as well, mainly because Stafford is just a slow starter. I think both teams would probably have traded scores with New England playing a little better than Detroit, and the game’s outcome would not have been decided until the final minute (I believe I just lapsed into preterit-future-imaginary-subjunctive tense).
In conclusion, the preseason is WAY too long. Can we start this up already?
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