Saturday, August 10, 2013

Lions Preview & Preseason Breakdown

The Lions had a lot of moves to make in the offseason. To recap - they lost (to retirement or through free agency) DE Cliff Avril, RT Gosder Cherilus, LT Jeff Backus, RG Stephen Peterman, LB Justin Durant, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jason Hanson. They bolstered their offense by adding Reggie Bush in FA, the defense by adding S Glover Quinn & DE/DT Jason Jones, and looked to replace Hanson with David Akers. The draft added DE Ziggy Ansah, CB Darius Slay, G Larry Warford and a couple other guys who could all contribute in a meaningful way this year. That’s a LOT of turnover.



Don’t get me wrong, this is a team that needed some turnover, but there are a lot of question marks. Riley Reiff MIGHT be ready to replace Backus, but Reiff couldn’t even hold a starting job last year so that certainly isn’t a given. I don’t know who’s playing RG or RT yet. I don’t know who’s taking the LB spot vacated by Durant. Presumably Ansah will be one of the starting DE’s, the other could be either Willie Young or Jason Jones. The other CB (opposite Chris Houston) will either be the rookie Slay (if healthy), or more probably Bill Bentley.

What I Like:

The Lions have been built the past few years as an offensive team with an edge on defense. They had problems scoring TD’s last year though, and due to injury and selfishness/insanity, Calvin Johnson was Stafford’s only weapon. Adding Bush changes the dynamic of the offense & should force opposing defenses to respect the Lions’ line of scrimmage. If Burleson and Broyles are healthy, this offense should score a LOT of points.



This is the best I’ve felt about the defense in a LONG time. There’s a lot of inexperience at the DE spot, but at LOT of talent. Ansah could be a game changer. Fairley reportedly is in better shape & firing off more quickly, which means opposing offensive lines will have their hands full. I don’t think Slay will be healthy enough to start, but Bentley looked capable in spots last year and the safety position looks as solid as I can ever remember.



What I Don’t Like:
Injury has hampered this team. Losing Jahvid Best was probably the biggest blow, but they drafted Broyles after he had surgery to repair his ACL and lo & behold, he hurt his knee. They did a similar thing this year in drafting Slay. He’ll probably miss the first couple of games or start slow, and the risk of reinjuring or hurting his other knee is high. Burleson is coming off a serious injury last season, Louis Delmas is ALWAYS injured or at less than 100%... I don’t even want to mention Stafford, who’s been healthy the last 2 years. A team as thin as the Lions are can’t afford a serious injury, but they seem to get them all the time.



Special teams was a REAL weak point last year and cost the Lions at least 2 games. They cut Stefan Logan, but the problem was bigger than the return game. The Lions can’t afford to ignore this problem anymore. It seems like such a minor thing, special teams, but I recall a year in which San Diego had the #1 offense AND the #1 defense, yet failed to make the playoffs because their special teams were a disaster.



Lastly, there is a lot of unknown with this team. Ansah could be a defensive POY, or he could be 2 years away from holding a starting job. Reiff could be an improvement over Backus & help the run game, or he could whiff on a block in week 1 and get Stafford knocked out for the season. What will the kicking game be like without Hanson?



The Verdict:
I was going to do a best case/worst case like I did with the Pistons, but that’s kind of weak and this is football. I think the offense finds the best version of itself with Bush providing SOME balance, and Reiff does a better job than Backus (who looked like he was on skates at times) in the run game. Stafford doesn’t throw for 5,000 yards but improves his TD/INT ratio. CJ gets fewer yards than last year but leads the league in TD receptions. Ansah wins Defensive ROY, and the defense finishes in the top 10. With a top 10 defense and a top 5 offense, that’s good for 11 wins and a trip to the 2nd round of the playoffs.



Yes, I’m bold.

*****

So I watched the first quarter of the Lions first preseason game against the Jets (really, why watch more than that?). My impressions:
 Sorry for the lack of visual flair in this post, I'll try & make up for that next time.

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