Wednesday, March 4, 2015

The Voice of the Turtle...

There's nothing that makes it feel like winter is ending like the start of Spring Training. Every Tigers' Grapefruit League opener, Ernie Harwell would quote the Song of Solomon (2:11-12... as a side note, "the voice of the turtle" actually refers to a turtle dove, but I like to picture an actual singing turtle instead):
For, lo, the winter is past,The rain is over and gone
The flowers appear on the Earth
The time of the singing of birds is come
And the voice of the turtle is heard in our land.

The Tigers are coming off of a semi-successful 2014 season, in which they won their division for the 4th year in a row but got swept in the 1st round of the playoffs by Baltimore. In the offseason, the Tigers lost key contributors Max Scherzer, Torii Hunter, and Rick Porcello, and they added Yoenis Cespedes, Anthony Gose, Alfredo Simon, and Shane Greene. Justin Verlander, Jose Iglesias, and Bruce Rondon all expect to be healthier, while Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez recover from offseason surgery. In other words, it's March.


The Tigers kicked off the Spring Training season by getting an absolutely meaningless revenge on Baltimore for sweeping them out of the playoffs by beating the Orioles 15-2. Victor Martinez didn't play, but he expects to be ready by Opening Day. Miguel Cabrera had a BP session on Monday, which is a sign he'll get some reps in BEFORE Opening Day. And Verlander says he feels a lot better than last year, so... hopefully he can make up for the loss of Detroit's best 2 pitchers last year? The list of Tigers who need to improve on down seasons last year is rather long and scary (Verlander, Nathan, Cabrera, Avila, Price...) and the list of Tigers who had unrepeatably GREAT seasons last year is short and equally scary (Victor Martinez).

***

The Pistons have dropped 3 straight, falling to 2 1/2 games out of the 8th seed, behind Brooklyn, Charlotte, Indiana and Boston. Additionally, in this losing streak they gave up double-digit leads over Cleveland and New York, and they lost a VERY winnable game in DC to the Wizards (who were on a losing streak of their own) in part due to some very poor FT shooting from Drummond (3-10) and some REALLY poor interior defense.

The Pistons have a winning % of .390 right now and, like I said, are 2 1/2 games away from making the playoffs as an 8th seed. On the other side of things, there are currently 7 teams with worse records. If Stan wanted to tank (he doesn't, but let's run with this for a moment), they couldn't likely fall to within the bottom 5 but the 6th pick is possible. So, that's their range. 7th seed in the playoffs is still within reach (Detroit would probably have to win 14 of their remaining 23 games) and the 6th pick in the draft is also reachable (again, needing to finish roughly 5-18). The most likely scenario is neither thing happens and they end up picking in the 8-10 range. Again.

Look, I'm anti-tanking. Most of the time. I absolutely HATE what Philly is doing right now, and I doubt it's actually going to work for them. But, there are times when I see the season as a lost cause and support blowing it up for the draft. Last year the Pistons had every excuse to do just that, especially after firing Cheeks and needing their draft pick to fall in the top 8 to keep it. When they traded Tayshaun back in 2013, the roster was gutted and Drummond & Monroe were banged up. They could've easily wrapped those two guys in bubble wrap until the next year, lost 5 extra games and ended up with a top 3 pick. In 2014, 5 more losses would've netted them a top 4 pick. They either get Oladipo, Otto Porter, or McLemore in 2013, or else one of Wiggins, Parker, Aaron Gordon, Exum or Smart in 2014. 

To me, this is not one of those types of seasons. There's a better shot at making the playoffs than getting even a top 5 pick (let alone a top 3 pick). Actually, the best guy for the Pistons to draft is probably either Stanley Johnson or Kelly Oubre, who would most likely be available with a pick in the 8-10 range. That's where the Pistons are now. So, no need to tank. They can even make a run at the playoffs. If they make it, great. If they fall short, they'll have a top 15 pick (and maybe even top 10) and some cap room to play with. I say let it ride.

***

The Wings were more active at the trade deadline than I expected them to be. First they swapped a couple of mid-level prospects for Eric Cole, a 36 year-old RW currently with 33 points (18 goals), more of a scoring power forward. His 33 points would put him 6th on the team and the 18 goals rank 4th, behind Nyquist and ahead of Zetterberg. He's a rental, but Cole adds an extra scoring presence that will be much needed for a deep playoff run.

Still needing a right-handed shot & scoring from the blue line, they traded a 2016 3rd-rounder for 38 yr-old D Marek Zidlicky, with 23 points (4 goals). After Danny DeKuyser and Niklas Krowall, he's probably the best offensive defenseman on the team and he adds some experience on the blue line, which is pretty young right now.

Both of these moves were swaps for immediate returns, given that both players acquired are north of 35 yrs old. Neither of these move blew up twitter, but they definitely bolster a team looking to make a Cup run. The Wings reportedly were trying for Toronto D Dion Phaneuf, talks broke off and Ken Holland quickly shifted toward Zidlicky. I'm VERY interested to see what this team does when the playoffs come around.

***

Despite spending an inordinate amount of time talking football last week (to the exclusion of all other sports), I do have a bit of Lions housekeeping to cover before signing off. Monday was the last day the Lions could use the franchise tag on Ndamukong Suh. Since it would cost them a prohibitive $26M/yr to do that, they let him slide.

This is the Lions' own fault since they restructured his contract twice to backload it, meaning the franchise tag would've cost something in the more reasonable range of $12M. They still have some time to get him re-signed prior to hitting free agency, but Suh most likely wants to hit the open market. This doesn't mean he's gone for sure, but I would be surprised to see him in a Lions' uniform next year.

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