For the uninitiated, '3-4' refers to the defensive alignment - 3 defensive linemen and 4 linebackers. The Lions have been running a 4-3 defense (2 DTs, 2 DEs, 3 LBs) for a while now, and I believe it would take at least 2 years to fully make the shift. The #1 requirement is a big, space eating nose tackle. Well, Ngata is definitely that, but he's also 31 years old and probably has only a couple of years left before he retires. You also need your defensive ends to commit more to the run, which usually means they have to be bigger guys as well. You also need one or two REALLY good pass rushing OLBs (think Clay Matthews), which is the most important aspect of the 3-4 after the nose tackle, and the Lions don't have that guy on their roster.
Could the Lions run some type of hybrid 3-4, like what Oregon runs? Houston and San Francisco run hybrid versions of the 3-4, and Seattle runs a hybrid 4-3. What would this hybrid D look like? (WARNING: the following couple of paragraphs are about to degenerate into some football schematic geekery.)
The 3-4 Under/Over could look a lot like a 4-3 with a blitzing LB on the right as either your 6- or 7-technique guy (confused by all these reference to "techniques"?). Ziggy Ansah could play that 7-technique contain guy on the left, but it would mean he'd have pass coverage responsibilities at times as well. Ansah is a classic 4-3 edge rusher, and he's still actually learning the game. If they decide to switch up systems, they would be moving him from doing what he does best, and possibly stunting his development. The other problem is that no one on the team would fit the 6-tech role.
The Seahawks run a 4-3 under/over, which Pete Carroll describes as "a 4-3 defense with 3-4 personnel." Do the Lions have the personnel to run this? Ngata can play the 1-technique NT in his sleep, so no worries there. They still don't have a 3-technique DT, but they would have needed one of those anyway. Jason Jones is a classic 5-technique DE, so they have a guy but would need depth there. Ziggy Ansah would HAVE to be the LEO. I think either Tahir Whitehead or Kyle Van Noy would have to play the SAM backer, and this is the biggest stretch. Van Noy would be more comfortable with the responsibilities but he didn't look like a legit NFL player last year, whereas Whitehead played well but would basically be learning a new position. Tulloch and Levy would have no problems with their roles in this type of defense. This defense would require fewer personnel moves, but the Lions would definitely need a 3-tech DT, another 5-tech DE, and probably a legit SAM backer as well.
Another option is to keep the same defense they've been running and have Ngata play the role of Ndamukong Suh. Could he do that? He's a 3-4 NT switching to a 4-3 DT, he's 3 years older than Suh, and roughly 30 lbs heavier.
These highlights are from 2013, but you get the idea. Ngata is a bigtime run-stuffing dude. But I've seen him play all over the field. I've seen him slide outside and rush the passer as a 4-3 DT. I've seen him step off the line, basically playing middle linebacker, drop into coverage and get an interception! I have full confidence in his ability to absorb his new responsibilities. And here's another thing - these responsibilities are going to be pretty similar to what he was doing in Baltimore. The biggest difference between a 3-4 NT and a 4-3 DT is the NT is supposed to eat up a double team and attack 2 gaps at the same time. The 4-3 DT wants to attack 1 gap and not get double teamed. Well, Suh's job was to eat up double teams too. Haloti Ngata is not going to be Suh, and Mark Schlereth said exactly this on Mike&Mike this morning, but he's the best the Lions were going to be able to do. Let's play a little Best Case/Worst Case.
Best Case Scenario:
Haloti Ngata drops the 20-30 lbs he doesn't need because he isn't a NT anymore. This allows him to play faster while still preserving his power. He has a career year in sacks, the Lions' D doesn't miss a beat, and they sign him to a 2-year deal to end his career in Detroit.
Worst Case Scenario:
Age has caught up with Ngata, and he's a bad fit for the 4-3 scheme. He can still stuff the run with the best of them, but he is unable to make an impact in the passing game. With the Lions' interior line no longer eating up double-teams, their edge rushers are less impactful as well and the defense returns to mediocrity.
To be honest, that worst case scenario was a lot more likely before the Lions traded for Ngata. The names that were being bandied about - Knighton, Odrick, Dan Williams, Stephen Paea - were not going to be difference makers in the middle. Now Ngata isn't the same guy he was in 2010 when he was the best defensive tackle in football, but I think he has 2 or 3 good years left. If he drops some weight, which I think he should, he may have a couple REALLY good years left.
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