Lions are $crUHed, Pistons go in the tank

Ndamukong Suh is taking his talents to South Beach. It's not official yet, but the word is the Lions offered $102M over 6 years ($17M/yr) and that offer was torpedoed by the Dolphins' offer of 6 years, $114M ($19M/yr). That's just too much money for a team with as many holes as the Lions have (and the Dolphins, to tell the truth) to spend on one player, even one as good as Suh. The problem with this is the Lions created this situation, then appeared surprised when it blew up in their faces.

A particularly painful aspect of the loss of Suh is something that a number of writers have pointed out, namely that the Lions could have taken DT Aaron Donald with their 10th pick last year instead of TE Eric Ebron. We could play this game all day. The list of players the Lions could & should have taken there is pretty long. OT Taylor Lewan, WR Odell Beckham Jr, Aaron Donald, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, CB Darqueze Dennard... But if you're looking for the next Suh, look no farther than Donald. His rookie numbers (37 tackles, 9 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 pass defensed) are eerily similar to Suh's rookie stats (49 tackles, 10 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT, 3 PD). The Lions were ramping up toward salary cap-ageddeon, and they made no moves to avoid their fate.

Now what? They could draft one of the top 3 DTs this year, one of whom should be available with that 23rd pick. They could re-up with Nick Fairley, who has yet to live up to the hype. They might make an offer at Stephen Paea and hope he continues his upward trend. Or they could go for either Odrick or Knighton. However they plan to recover, they're still saying good bye to one of the best defensive players ever to wear the Honolulu Blue.

I don't really blame Suh for taking the money and moving to Miami. Some fans may take issue with it and call him greedy or whatever, but let's be realistic for a moment. How often does a star take "the hometown discount"? How often does the team set aside the business aspect of the business and do the HUMAN thing? Suh never struck me a being particularly sentimental. Practically everything he did in the public sphere seemed calculated and contrived. Using those words makes it sound like I think Suh's a bad person. I don't think that, but I don't think he's a particularly GOOD person either.

As I keep saying, the team put themselves in this position by restructuring Suh's deal twice. If you're mad that the Lions are $crUHed now, blame the Lions. They didn't have to open up the wallet the way they did for Calvin Johnson and Stafford. They shouldn't have restructured Suh's contract the way they did, blowing any leverage they had and inflating his franchise tag. They didn't pick up Fairley's option, leading to a worst-case scenario where he neither proved that he's a franchise DT nor did he play his way out of a nice contract. Mayhew created this lose-lose-lose scenario, and it was entirely foreseeable and preventable.

***

The Pistons, once 2 games out of the 8th (and 7th) spot in the playoffs, have gone 0 for their last 6. They are now 5 games out of 8th with 20 to go. They have a better shot at getting a top 5 draft pick over getting a playoff spot (they're 3 games away from the pick). The odds break this way:

1. The worst team has a 25% shot at pick #1, a 21.5% chance at pick #2, and a 17.8% chance at pick #3
2. Next worst has a 19.9% shot at #1, 18.8% for #2, and 17.1% for #3
3. The 3rd seed has a 15.6% shot at #1, 15.7% for #2, and 15.6% for #3
4. 4th seed - 11.9% for #1, 12.6% for #2, and 13.3% for #3
5. 5th seed - 8.8% for 1st pick, 9.7% for 2nd pick, and 10.7% for 3rd pick

Right now the top 5 prospects for the draft are (in some order) Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, and Kristaps Porzingis. I really like Towns, especially if Monroe leaves in free agency, but KAT is most likely going with one of the top 2 picks so Detroit would need lotto help. After him I think the best fit would be Porzingis, but this high in the draft you should take BPA (best player available), regardless of need.

In all probability the Pistons stay right around where they are, drafting 8th, and end up with Stanley Johnson or Mario Hezonja. That wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but they REALLY need the type of talent you can only get with a top 5 pick.