Lions' FA Outlook

NFL free agency has hit, so I guess I'm talking about the Lions again. Unless the Lions have some kind of pre-agreed upon, under the table deal with Suh, he's out the door. The Lions only have about $14M in cap space, once you account for the rookies they'll have to sign after the draft, and between free agency and the draft, they need:

3 DTs
2-3 CBs
1 DE (at least)
1 OT (at least)
1 G
1 FB
1 K
1 KR

Assume 1 of the DTs, 1 of the CBs and 1 of the offensive linemen get drafted. I think they'll re-up with Matt Prater at K (Prater signed a 3-yr, $9M deal with the Lions today), Jed Collins at FB, Jeremy Ross at KR, and possibly George Johnson at DE. That should cost between $4M-$6M. They can fill one of the DT spots and a CB with replacement-level players for another $1M. So with, say, $9M to play with, the Lions need a DT, a CB and an offensive lineman of some stripe. Who's out there?

Defensive Tackle

Terrance Knighton (big #98 in the above clip) or Jared Odrick could be had for between $3M-$4M/yr, and they're the best 2 available after Suh. Fairley hasn't been worth it, but they might be able to re-up with him for $3M also and hope he finally plays like a top draft pick.

Cornerback
Rashean Mathis is 35 and shouldn't be brought back. Brandon Flowers could probably be had for $3M or so, a guy like Byron Maxwell could be had for $1.5M-$2M, and I also like Darius Butler who could go for $2.5M-$3.5M.

Offensive Tackle
If the Lions want to pick up a tackle in free agency, I wish them a lot of luck. There aren't many good ones to be had, and really good LTs go for $10M/yr (and none are available). Brian Bulaga is a RT and the best available, and my guess is he's going to get at least $4M. Green Bay is going to re-sign him anyway, so forget it. Doug Free was the Cowboy's RT, so he's good but should be slightly more affordable somewhere between $3.5M & $4M. Either of those 2 guys are good enough to play LT and allow Riley Reiff to slide over to RT. Ryan Harris would be more of a stop-gap RT. He'd be easily gotten at $1.5M, and possibly even cheaper.

Offensive Guard
 

 

The best out there is Mike Iupati, who's a road-grader as a run blocker but mediocre at protecting the QB. He'll go for around $2M-$3M. Then there are the aging vets like Daryn Colledge, Willie Colon, and Dan Connolly. They could be had for a 1yr, $2M type of deal. That's all fine and dandy, but the guy I really like is Orlando Franklin (#74 above, getting his feet around the DT). He's not going to get the attention Iupati will, but I think he's a much better fit for what the Lions want to do, he's better in pass pro, and he also plays offensive tackle. $2M might be enough to get him to play here.

There's no replacing Suh. He's a next-level guy at his position, and the Lions screwed that up. But to tell the truth, the Lions are going to be a lot better off using that money to bolster the team at 3 positions instead of spending it all on Suh and hoping for a trickle down effect. The problem is as good as they were last year, they're still 4 or 5 players away from contending, and that's with Suh ON THE TEAM. The tradeoff is they lose their best player but upgrade 3 positions and have the ability to re-sign a guy like George Johnson, who was good last year. They would get worse by keeping Suh because they would lose the ability to re-sign those other guys.

The defense might actually be better next year with a rookie DT and Knighton, Tulloch returning to his Mike LB spot, and Maxwell joining Slay at CB. The offensive line would definitely be better with the addition of either Free or Franklin, which would improve the entire offense. They might add a WR who can return kicks instead of re-signing Ross, who isn't much of a WR. They also probably need a running back, unless you're a believer in Theo Riddick as a scat back (I'm not). I think they can get this team back to the playoffs next season, but they can't afford another draft like the last one and they NEED another free agency signing like last season's.

I'm totally stealing this from Grantland, but here's the verdict on Detroit's 2014 Free Agency signings, as written by Bill Barnwell:

Re-signed: Dominic Raiola, Brandon Pettigrew, Rashean Mathis
Arrived: Golden Tate, James Ihedigbo
Departed: Willie Young, Jason Fox, Louis Delmas
I was skeptical of the move to give Tate a five-year, $31 million contract with $13.3 million guaranteed, but it looks like a masterstroke one year later. Tate kept the Detroit passing attack afloat while Calvin Johnson was down with his ankle injury, a bargain for a guy whose cap hit was just $3.1 million. Even at $5.4 million in 2015, he’ll be one of the better bargains in football. Ihedigbo and Mathis were starters in a shockingly effective secondary. The only downside was the departure of Young, an underrated pass-rusher who had an impressive season for the Bears.
Grade: A-minus

They rated 3rd overall, behind the Broncos and the Pats. Their draft was regraded from B- to C by Mel Kiper Jr, and I think it's probably worse than that. If they have a B free agency and a B draft, they should be back in the playoffs.