Smarter People Than Me Evaluate the Sweet 16 Games

I actually don't have a lot of knowledge on Kansas, since I haven't watched much non-Big Ten basketball this year. I checked out a few of their losses to try and find a weakness, and there isn't much there to exploit. They're REALLY good defensively, so it'll be strength vs. strength for Michigan. The X factor is Mitch McGary. He went into beast-mode the last couple games, but this time he's got a talented 7 footer to deal with (Altered Beast was a weird game, right?).

Seth Greenberg on ESPN Insider broke down all the match-up problems for each team in each game of the Sweet Sixteen. Here's what he said about the Michigan-Kansas game:

Kansas Jayhawks: Jeff Withey
Michigan is going to have to account for Withey on both ends of the floor Friday night. The Wolverines' defensive game plan needs to be centered on defending KU's high-low action, in which Withey is the key factor, and their offensive game plan needs to focus on pulling him away from the basket to allow for high-percentage looks near the rim.

North Carolina, with its small lineup, had no answers for Withey on Sunday, and Michigan freshman Mitch McGary is going to have a very tough time matching up with him. McGary had a great game against VCU, but asking him to replicate it against the Jayhawks and Withey is probably too much. There will be fewer transition, second-shot and open shot opportunities against Kansas, and those were the areas in which McGary excelled versus the Rams. KU's defense is so solid that it never gets put in rotation.

Michigan Wolverines: Trey Burke
I've gotta stick with Burke for this one, even if it's the obvious answer. When you begin a defensive game plan for Michigan, it starts with Burke. He's great in transition, dominates in ball-screen action, and can make plays for teammates or score on the drive or with his jump shot.

The really scary thing about Burke is that you can tell he's beginning to trust his teammates more. He's a much more willing passer than he was early in the season, and he showed a lot to me against VCU in that, even when he wasn't making his shots, he didn't let it carry over to any other parts of his game. That's big in the tournament.

The good news for KU is that it has Elijah Johnson available to guard Burke, and Johnson was one of the best on-ball defenders in the tournament last season. If he can contain Burke and keep him out of the lane, the Jayhawks can eliminate the Wolverines' opportunities to get room-and-rhythm jump shots.

And also the Michigan State-Duke game: 

Duke Blue Devils: Ryan Kelly
Michigan State is better equipped than most to handle Kelly because I don't think the Spartans will need to over-help, allowing them to stay home on all shooters, Kelly included. But he's still a tough matchup thanks to his versatility, and the guy who will be guarding him, Adreian Payne, is a little bigger and not used to having to chase players out on the perimeter. He had to chase Deshaun Thomas when MSU played Ohio State this season, but he didn't have to do it on a regular basis. Kelly will look to take advantage of that.

Michigan State Spartans: Derrick Nix
On the surface, this might not seem like a tough matchup for Duke because Mason Plumlee is a very capable defender at the 5. But when you consider the lack of depth in Duke's frontcourt, you can see why Nix could become an issue.

Nix is a guy who has really improved offensively this season. He's crafty enough to draw fouls on Plumlee and good enough to score often in the post if Plumlee plays off of him at all to avoid fouls. If Nix and the Spartans can get Plumlee out of the game, who rebounds for Duke? This is a game that will be won on the backboards, so if Plumlee's minutes are limited, that's a huge advantage for Michigan State.

However, one way Plumlee can cause problems for Nix is with his ability to run the floor. If Duke takes advantage of that mismatch, that could limit Nix's effectiveness.

Regarding what Greenberg said about the Michigan game, I agree that Withey is the key match-up, not McLemore. The key to stopping Michigan so far has been to keep Burke out of the paint, but that was before McGary realized he's a monster. Burke hasn't run too much Pick & Roll with McGary, but if Kansas is successful at keeping Burke out of the lane, running PnR might be a solution. Also, Burke has that PG ability to find cracks in a defense where none seem to be (check the MSU game highlights).

Duke wants to keep Payne out of the paint. He had a really good game vs. Memphis (14 points, 10 boards, 5 blocks). Ryan Kelly hasn't been effective in a while, and he hasn't shot the 3 very well. On the season he's close to 46%, but in the last 5 games he's shot only 2-17 from long range. He'll need to find his shot if Duke is to have a chance. I'm less concerned about Nix than Greenberg is. If he needs a blow, MSU has a solid backup C in Costello to throw out there for a few minutes. State likes to run, so if that's Duke's plan, they're in trouble.

The Lions are reportedly taking a look at Darius Heyward-Bey to shore up the WR position. I like that, mainly because you won't get immediate help in the draft and the Lions have MUCH bigger needs. Speaking of which, ESPN's Bill Williamson thinks the Lions are a good draft away from contention. Several pieces would have to fall into place for them to land a starting LT and DE with their first 2 picks. If Eric Fisher is there at pick #5 and Margus Hunt at pick #36, the Lions will be in good shape.

Rick Porcello has looked great this Spring, and I think he'll benefit from having a slightly better defense behind him. Infante was uncharacteristically error-prone last year and was still one of the Tigers' best defenders. Torii Hunter will be a big upgrade defensively in the outfield, despite the fact that he's 37. He'd be a bigger upgrade at LF (Dirks was a bit of a disaster there last year), but the Tigers have exclusively played Hunter at RF. Avasail Garcia and Matt Tuiasosopo will probably rep Dirks in LF from time to time, and it's also probable that Dirks will improve his fielding from last year.

The Tigers look to have the best hitting lineup in the AL, outside of maybe the Angels. Jackson upped the walks last year, improving drastically as a lead-off hitter. Hunter looks to be the best #2 hitter they've had since Alan Trammell. Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, Fielder and Martinez should do a lot of RiSP damage, and a Dirks-Peralta-Avila-Infante back end isn't half bad either. The starting rotation should be excellent. The only area I'm worried about right now is Closer... 

On a non-sports related note, I love this guy:

I rented Into the Wild a few years back & there was a scene where a couple of the main actors talked to Leonard Knight about how he sees things. Actually, they just listened, which is what I would do too. I got the feeling that there was very little acting going on in that scene. Leonard Knight just is who he is, you can help but get taken in.