Smarter People Than Me Evaluate the Sweet 16 Games

I actually don't have a lot of knowledge on Kansas, since I haven't watched much non-Big Ten basketball this year. I checked out a few of their losses to try and find a weakness, and there isn't much there to exploit. They're REALLY good defensively, so it'll be strength vs. strength for Michigan. The X factor is Mitch McGary. He went into beast-mode the last couple games, but this time he's got a talented 7 footer to deal with (Altered Beast was a weird game, right?).

Seth Greenberg on ESPN Insider broke down all the match-up problems for each team in each game of the Sweet Sixteen. Here's what he said about the Michigan-Kansas game:

Kansas Jayhawks: Jeff Withey
Michigan is going to have to account for Withey on both ends of the floor Friday night. The Wolverines' defensive game plan needs to be centered on defending KU's high-low action, in which Withey is the key factor, and their offensive game plan needs to focus on pulling him away from the basket to allow for high-percentage looks near the rim.

North Carolina, with its small lineup, had no answers for Withey on Sunday, and Michigan freshman Mitch McGary is going to have a very tough time matching up with him. McGary had a great game against VCU, but asking him to replicate it against the Jayhawks and Withey is probably too much. There will be fewer transition, second-shot and open shot opportunities against Kansas, and those were the areas in which McGary excelled versus the Rams. KU's defense is so solid that it never gets put in rotation.

Michigan Wolverines: Trey Burke
I've gotta stick with Burke for this one, even if it's the obvious answer. When you begin a defensive game plan for Michigan, it starts with Burke. He's great in transition, dominates in ball-screen action, and can make plays for teammates or score on the drive or with his jump shot.

The really scary thing about Burke is that you can tell he's beginning to trust his teammates more. He's a much more willing passer than he was early in the season, and he showed a lot to me against VCU in that, even when he wasn't making his shots, he didn't let it carry over to any other parts of his game. That's big in the tournament.

The good news for KU is that it has Elijah Johnson available to guard Burke, and Johnson was one of the best on-ball defenders in the tournament last season. If he can contain Burke and keep him out of the lane, the Jayhawks can eliminate the Wolverines' opportunities to get room-and-rhythm jump shots.

And also the Michigan State-Duke game: 

Duke Blue Devils: Ryan Kelly
Michigan State is better equipped than most to handle Kelly because I don't think the Spartans will need to over-help, allowing them to stay home on all shooters, Kelly included. But he's still a tough matchup thanks to his versatility, and the guy who will be guarding him, Adreian Payne, is a little bigger and not used to having to chase players out on the perimeter. He had to chase Deshaun Thomas when MSU played Ohio State this season, but he didn't have to do it on a regular basis. Kelly will look to take advantage of that.

Michigan State Spartans: Derrick Nix
On the surface, this might not seem like a tough matchup for Duke because Mason Plumlee is a very capable defender at the 5. But when you consider the lack of depth in Duke's frontcourt, you can see why Nix could become an issue.

Nix is a guy who has really improved offensively this season. He's crafty enough to draw fouls on Plumlee and good enough to score often in the post if Plumlee plays off of him at all to avoid fouls. If Nix and the Spartans can get Plumlee out of the game, who rebounds for Duke? This is a game that will be won on the backboards, so if Plumlee's minutes are limited, that's a huge advantage for Michigan State.

However, one way Plumlee can cause problems for Nix is with his ability to run the floor. If Duke takes advantage of that mismatch, that could limit Nix's effectiveness.

Regarding what Greenberg said about the Michigan game, I agree that Withey is the key match-up, not McLemore. The key to stopping Michigan so far has been to keep Burke out of the paint, but that was before McGary realized he's a monster. Burke hasn't run too much Pick & Roll with McGary, but if Kansas is successful at keeping Burke out of the lane, running PnR might be a solution. Also, Burke has that PG ability to find cracks in a defense where none seem to be (check the MSU game highlights).

Duke wants to keep Payne out of the paint. He had a really good game vs. Memphis (14 points, 10 boards, 5 blocks). Ryan Kelly hasn't been effective in a while, and he hasn't shot the 3 very well. On the season he's close to 46%, but in the last 5 games he's shot only 2-17 from long range. He'll need to find his shot if Duke is to have a chance. I'm less concerned about Nix than Greenberg is. If he needs a blow, MSU has a solid backup C in Costello to throw out there for a few minutes. State likes to run, so if that's Duke's plan, they're in trouble.

The Lions are reportedly taking a look at Darius Heyward-Bey to shore up the WR position. I like that, mainly because you won't get immediate help in the draft and the Lions have MUCH bigger needs. Speaking of which, ESPN's Bill Williamson thinks the Lions are a good draft away from contention. Several pieces would have to fall into place for them to land a starting LT and DE with their first 2 picks. If Eric Fisher is there at pick #5 and Margus Hunt at pick #36, the Lions will be in good shape.

Rick Porcello has looked great this Spring, and I think he'll benefit from having a slightly better defense behind him. Infante was uncharacteristically error-prone last year and was still one of the Tigers' best defenders. Torii Hunter will be a big upgrade defensively in the outfield, despite the fact that he's 37. He'd be a bigger upgrade at LF (Dirks was a bit of a disaster there last year), but the Tigers have exclusively played Hunter at RF. Avasail Garcia and Matt Tuiasosopo will probably rep Dirks in LF from time to time, and it's also probable that Dirks will improve his fielding from last year.

The Tigers look to have the best hitting lineup in the AL, outside of maybe the Angels. Jackson upped the walks last year, improving drastically as a lead-off hitter. Hunter looks to be the best #2 hitter they've had since Alan Trammell. Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, Fielder and Martinez should do a lot of RiSP damage, and a Dirks-Peralta-Avila-Infante back end isn't half bad either. The starting rotation should be excellent. The only area I'm worried about right now is Closer... 

On a non-sports related note, I love this guy:

I rented Into the Wild a few years back & there was a scene where a couple of the main actors talked to Leonard Knight about how he sees things. Actually, they just listened, which is what I would do too. I got the feeling that there was very little acting going on in that scene. Leonard Knight just is who he is, you can help but get taken in.

Michigan moves on, and there's a fantasy baseball bit at the end that you may or may not want to ignore. Maybe.

The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament were WILDLY entertaining (I don't count the play-in games as round one because they're PLAY-IN GAMES). Michigan & Michigan State both advanced to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time together, so that's good. I was on the road, so I only caught the 2nd half of Michigan's first game. The second game was HIGHLY entertaining. 

I was legitimately worried about this game. VCU has that incredible full-court press and are very solid defensively. The press didn't bother me quite so much, because Michigan typically has 3 to 4 players on the court that can handle the ball pretty well, but I was worried about the half-court game. Unnecessarily so, as it turned out. VCU's 1 3-point shooter was COLD, Michigan brought its D and beat the press BADLY.

I was a little disappointed in Shaka Smart's performance in this game. I felt like he got out-coached a little by Beilein, although he also was severely out-talented by Michigan, personnel-wise. Beilein started Mitch McGary (and that worked out well), and played Spike Albrecht with Burke for large chunks of the game. I've thought for a long time this season (really since mid-way through the Big Ten schedule) that McGary should be starting. He brings the physical presence, post defense and rebounding edge that Michigan has lacked basically all year.

Next up is Kansas. I would've mush rather faced UNC, obviously. Kansas has a stout D and a couple guys that can score. MSU beat them earlier in the year, and I think the key is to limit Jeff Withey's effectiveness. McGary is going to have to put in WORK. Burke needs to have a better game than his last 2, that goes without saying, but I think rebounding and good games from Hardaway Jr. and Robinson III are more important.

The Pistons are still without Andre Drummond, although that could be coming to a close this week. Apparently he's going through full practices with the team, which likely means they just want to get his conditioning back up before putting him out on the floor. This is exciting, since I'm going to a game in a couple weeks & don't want to watch the team that's shown up the past couple of months.

*Obligatory personal fantasy baseball update*
(If you have no interest, you have my permission to check out for the rest of this post)

The fantasy baseball league that I've been in since 1997 held its draft this past Sunday evening. I ended up with David Price as my first pick, #3 in our draft (or #63 overall, since there are 12 teams with 5 keepers each). I'm pretty happy with my team (despite having the worst keepers of any owner). I really only punted 1 category (batting average), and made only half-hearted attempts at 2 others (steals and saves). The other 7 categories are all in play, and I think I've got a shot at 3 or 4 of them.

My catchers are pretty average to bad, but my infield is solid (led by Hosmer, Manny Machado, Kelly Johnson and Zobrist). My outfield is bloody spectacular though (led by Mark Trumbo, Nelson 'Boom-Stick' Cruz and Granderson), and I stole David Ortiz at the end of the 6th (or 11th round, counting keepers). I've got pretty solid pitching, I've got a closer and 6 starters. I like to pick up a guy that qualifies as a relief pitcher but is supposed to start, padding my wins and K's (hopefully). This year I got Wade Davis to fill that role. I want to get a look at my team's projected stats, but on the whole I'm feeling pretty good.

Low Productivity Day

Opening day of the Tourney, I'm anticipating a low-production day. Basketball can be watched from work, which continues a tradition I've held for about 5 or 6 years. I'm currently watching MSU-Valpo (sounds like a variation of dog food, right?), so I'm going to put a couple things out there & then get back to the game.

Love this quote from Jim Schwartz:

"If the Tigers had Cabrera and they had Schwartz batting behind Cabrera, how many intentional walks would Cabrera get?" Schwartz said. "A lot. A lot. I might be able to move the runner across. I might be able to hit behind the runner. I might be able to foul one off. I might be able to bloop one over the first baseman's head. But I can't clean the bases. That's my skill set. 

"But Reggie Bush can clear the bases. … Calvin's the kid in little league that the other coach … intentionally walks four times in a row. Well, along with the other guys, we need to make more explosive plays when teams choose to play us that way. I think Reggie will be a big part of that."

I'll agree with that. The Lions RB's had 2 runs over 20 yards, both by Joique Bell. There's been a lot written about how defenses stacked against the pass when playing Detroit, but the Lions were unable to capitalize on it. So getting Bush is like the Tigers adding Fielder last year? Sounds good.

The Tigers sent prospect Nick Castellanos down, which means they think Dirks will duplicate or build on last year's performance. I certainly hope so. Castellanos will probably get called up at some point, because inevitably one of the Tigers' outfielders goes down & they have to tap the Mudhens' talent.

Pistons were inactive again last night, but some interesting things happened in the tanking saga, and now Detroit is tied with 2 other teams for the 4th worst record. So, yay! Right?

Draft picks for my fantasy league were announced & I ended up with #3, my dad with #2. The #1 guy emailed everybody to consider Verlander off the board, so that's that.

Keith Appling looks locked into this game, so I'm penciling Michigan State into the 2nd round. PEACE!

Tourney Preview

Since Michigan is playing in the REAL first round of the NCAA Tournament tomorrow, I've got a little preview lined up. 

It's interesting, because Michigan's first opponent is kind of a mirror image of them in some respects. South Dakota State 's best player is a PG (Nate Wolters) who can both score & distribute, but really handles most of the scoring load. Both teams have secondary players that can have big nights or disappear, depending on... I don't know, the phase of the moon or something. Neither team is great at rebounding or defense, both teams feature some really good 3-pt shooters and score a lot of points. And the way to stop both teams is the same - contain the PG.

Wolters has game. He's 6'4", he scored 53 points earlier this year against IPFW, and he can get the other 4 guys involved too. He's maybe less of a distributor than Burke is though, and has less talented teammates. SD St. has one win over a ranked opponent this year, an early-season win over New Mexico, and losses to Minnesota (with Wolters out though) and the Oakland Grizzlies (who Michigan beat last year & MSU beat handily this year).

Anyway, the teams are too similar, and Michigan does what it does better. I think Michigan takes this one pretty easily, unless they play like they did in East Lansing. 

Periphery of Sports

There's not much going on, at least on the surface, of Detroit Sports. Well, not until the Big Dance starts anyway. But there are tons of things happening in what I'll call the "Periphery of Sports". For example...
 

Yep. Miami, Detroit, others. But $ for DEs isn't there across the board. RT @brooklynpod: anyone shown any real interest in Osi?
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 18, 2013

Via Twitter a fan asked USA Today writer Mike Garafolo if there were any teams interested in signing Giants DE Osi Umenyiora. Osi might not FIX the Lions' hole at DE, but he would go a long way towards plugging it up for a couple more years. The Lions are also getting a couple compensatory picks this draft, putting them back in the 4th round and giving them 8 picks in total. So that's good.

The Pistons lost again, sliding them potentially into the 5th spot in the draft. So that's good, I guess. There was also good news regarding Drummond's recovery. At least good for me, since I'm going to a game April 15th and want to see the kid play. ESPN's Rumors section also postulated a return for Drummond in the "near future". Personally I'm leery of news articles with question marks in the headline, and the Rumors section is full of those.

Jacob Turner - the elite pitching prospect the Tigers traded last summer for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante - is apparently not doing too well, and may lose his rotation spot. He may pan out in another year or 2, but the Tigers are built to win NOW. Thankfully they jumped on the opportunity to grab a couple good players, and as the saying goes, "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect".

I'm going to try to keep this blog relatively free of references to my fantasy baseball team because really, you probably don't care. Sometimes I can't help myself though. We're allowed to keep 5 players a maximum of 3 years each, and here's the list of the top players currently available (in order as ranked by CBS Sportsline):

• Edwin Encarnacion, 1B - hit 42 HRs last year
• RA Dickey, SP - had a season pretty comparable to Verlander's, won NL Cy Young
• Robinson Cano, 2B - best 2nd sacker in the game
• Verlander, SP - arguably should've won the CY Young last year
• Adam Jones, OF - gives you good production in all 5 categories
• David Price, SP - managed to beat Verlander for the AL Cy Young
• Curtis Granderson, OF - injured, but not enough for me to drop him more than a couple spots
• Michael Bourne, OF - crazy steals
• Felix Hernandez, SP - really good, unfortunately still plays for Seattle
• Alex Gordon, OF - 5 category guy with better teammates this year

There are 12 owners, but that's a pretty strong first round. I left out Melky Cabrera because of the steroid thing (and I don't think he's likely to duplicate last year's success) and Derek Jeter (coming off an injury, also don't think he'll duplicate last year). Anyway, I'm pretty stoked by the pitchers available. 2 of them won the Cy Young last year, Verlander won in in 2011 and Hernandez won in 2010. 

Anyway, my dad and I are doing our research this weekend and our draft is Sunday. I'll probably post about it again on Monday next week and hopefully lay off it for a while.

Last but not least, I would be remiss to mention my wife coming out & supporting me in the 10k on Sunday. It was pretty cold & windy and she saw me off, cheered me on at about the 3 mile mark (which helped me keep a good pace), and then at the finish line. It means a lot to have someone you know & love cheering for you, so if you're into running or any other kind of competition, marry somebody super supportive. Free advice for the day.

Work on Your Game

Last night was Selection Sunday, and I think Michigan is in the toughest bracket. By that I mean I could see any of the top 5 seeds in their region making the Final Four. They ended up with a 4th seed and face S. Dakota State in round 1, then most likely VCU if they make it to round 2. After that they would be looking at either Kansas or UNC, and then either Florida, G'town or UCLA (unlikely). Not that I expect them to get that far. I'm hoping they make it to the Sweet 16 but I'm not optimistic.

Well, I ran my 10k early Sunday morning. I took off with the first wave (under 10 minute mile pace) at 8am, and it was quite chilly (mainly due to the wind). My goal was to average an 8:30 mile pace for the full 6.2 miles, which would put me at around 52:45 for the whole race. I clocked the first mile at 8:47, the next 1.5 miles I ran about 8:19 pace, and then I slowed to somewhere between 8:30 & 8:40 for the rest of the race, until I got to the last 3/4 mile. I picked it up & ran something like an 8:00 pace to the finish. 

All told I ran a total time of 53:44 officially, which breaks down to an 8:40 average pace. Not bad. The GPS racing watch I'm borrowing put the distance at 6.27 mi instead of 6.2. If the watch is correct and the course is long, then I ran an 8:34 pace, which is pretty sweet. Either way I'm happy with the result. I ended up in the middle of the pack for my age group, and in the top 10% overall.

I didn't see any skunks, but on the way to Plymouth a rabbit crossed the road in front of our car. I told Gina it's not the same thing as seeing a skunk. She concurred, bringing to mind the Mitch Hedberg bit about Smokey the Bear. To paraphrase: nobody ever said "here comes that bunny rabbit" in a horrifying manner. It's always positive, like, "hey! Here comes that bunny rabbit. Alright! Maybe he will settle near me, and I can pet him"... I digress...

Anyway, after doing fairly well in the 10k, I was feeling all big & bad for my run this morning. Never mind my calves were still sore, that it was even colder & windier, and my usual route is more hilly - I was going to crush this! Well, I ran the first mile at a speedy 7:17, the next at about 8:50, and the next at 8:55. The lesson - don't try to crush your run the day after a 10k, just get it done.

I've been watching a few of this guy's tutorial videos for different basketball drills & exercises. His name is Dre Baldwin, he's played pro ball in Europe & is trying to get on a D league team. I'm just trying to get good for the Saturday pickup game. Anyway, people always ask him stuff like "I'm a PG, what's the best shoe for me", "is it better to use the glass with the floater", and stuff like that. His response is usually something like "you're thinking too much", "it doesn't matter if your game is good" and "work on your game".

I'm kinda running with that philosophy right now (literally & figuratively). Basically, put in the work, be strong mentally, and don't sweat the details so much. I think our tendency as humans is to look for the easy way to accomplish something or to look for an excuse as to why we couldn't do it. Usually the answer is as simple as "work harder". So, WORK ON YOUR GAME.

Running in the Dark

So I followed through on a really bad idea. I had decided to drive the course of the 10k I'll be running on Sunday (not a bad idea), and then run the back half of it (not a great idea but not terrible). So I prepped & ate a leisurely dinner, got in my Under Armor and sweats, filled a water bottle, and left the house at around 7:30pm (BAD IDEA!). 

After getting to Plymouth, driving the labyrinthine course and getting a parking spot, it was after 9pm. Unless it's mid-June, that means it's DARK. I parked near the finish line & cut across Ann Arbor Trail to pick up the course at around the 3.5 mile mark (I probably covered 3 miles all told). I think I ran a circle around the first block because I'm unable to read a map in the dark, read stop signs in the dark, and keep pace at the same time. I had to stop a lot.

This morning I did the fartlek training, which involves alternating between sprinting and jogging. I though about running only 2 miles and ultimately decided to go the full 3. It kicked my butt. I kept up with the fartlek aspect until about 2.3 miles, at which point I realized my "sprints" were getting pretty close to the same pace as my jogs, so I jogged the rest of the way. The goal for the 10k is to average an 8:30 mile pace, so I hope my prep helped.

Jeff Backus announced his retirement yesterday, meaning the Lions are returning 2 starters from last year's offensive line. While Backus is a TERRIBLE run blocker, he was decent pass blocker. Not great, but serviceable, which is more than can be said for much of the rest of the Lions' O-line. Despite his being one of the better LT's in the division, most people probably remember him for this unfortunate moment:

 His retirement means the Lions may pick up another offensive linemen in FA, though not probably one of the top guys remaining - Jake Long (rumored to be headed to STL), Ryan Clady (WAY too expensive), or Branden Albert (same). After signing their 4 top targets in free agency, the Lions have next to no cap space to work with. I think it's very likely they try to solve the offensive line issue like they tried to solve the secondary issue last year - internally & through the draft, and when guys got hurt, working the waiver wire like Mayweather working the speed-bag. I don't remember that working out too well though. Last year's secondary was a nightmare, in part due to the Lions' strategy, in part due to plain bad luck with injuries.

At the moment the Lions have 2 OT's under contract - Riley Reiff (heir-apparent to Backus) and Corey Hilliard (heir-apparent to Cherilus). Of concern is the fact that neither was able to win a starting spot last year, despite the Lions' terrible run-blocking & barely adequate pass-blocking. Reiff looks like he could probably play RT this season, but I'm not convinced he's a LT, at least not yet. Hilliard is basically a replacement-level player, and at best could hold the spot for a more qualified RT down the road. Raiola will retire in a year or 2, meaning the Lions still have to get a guard to replace Peterman & should be looking for a replacement at C whenever Raiola hangs it up.

I'm hoping the Lions re-sign Lo-Jack, but even if they do, DE is probably their biggest need after OL. Let's review their situation before & after FA - Before: CB, OL, DE, S, LB, and somewhere in there was WR/KR and RB. Well, they got a S, a CB, a RB, and kind of a DE (although not a great one), but lost their best DE in free agency and their best OL to retirement. Their needs are now: OL (by a lot, actually), DE, LB, CB, S, and WR/KR. As much as I like Dee Milliner, the best scenario now is that Eric Fisher (the LT from CMU) fall to them at pick 5, and they take Margus Hunt in the 2nd round.

Big news in hockey! The Red Wings are finally moving into the Eastern Conference next season. Now you don't have to stay up 'til midnight to watch a road playoff game.

Michigan took down PSU in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament, despite starting VERY cold. I was not extremely confident going into this game, based on how Michigan has played Penn State this season (an 8 point win and a 6 point loss), but they came to play in the 2nd half. I found it odd that Mitch McGary had a double-double in the first half and only got 1 rebound and took no shots in the second, but Horford was playing well and I guess Beilein decided he could only have 1 good forward in the game at a time (I didn't see any of the game because Cafe DeVille locked up 2 hours early due to protesting going on).

Michigan taps Wisconsin this afternoon, you can rest assured I'll be heading downstairs on the early side.

Lions FA haul, Pistons tanking underway, and other stuff

Pretty stoked! The Lions added Reggie Bush for a good price, and filled needs with Glover Quin at safety, Jason Jones (not THAT Jason Jones) at DE I guess, and re-signed Chris Houston to a 5-yr deal. None of these guys were over-priced, by the way.

They did let Cliff Avril walk, and even though 2 years for $15 million is an affordable contract for a pass rusher, I suspect they were thinking about all those higher draft picks like Stafford and Suh that they need to pay in a couple years. Delmas and Durant are still not spoken for, and if the price is right I think the Lions should re-up with both.

There's still some FA time left obviously and the Lions aren't done, but it looks like they've made their major moves. So what does this mean for the draft? Well, they pretty much have to go for DE in the 1st or 2nd round and offensive line in one of the top 3 rounds (remember, no 4th round pick). They still need a WR and a KR also, (too late on Cribbs, alas) and LB is somewhat of a need. But I feel better going into the draft than I did last year (when they did absolutely nothing to address GLARING holes in the secondary).

Not much I want to say about the Pistons. They lost again, which I guess is good because it got them to that #6 spot among teams with terrible records. The Wizards and the Kings both helped them out by winning. The Pistons have lost 7 straight now, they currently look like the WORST team in basketball (yes, worse than even Charlotte), and they may end up with the 3rd overall pick (lottery notwithstanding). I'll occasionally indulge in a little ESPN Mock Lottery to get a feel for which teams could pick who and so on, and today the Pistons usually end up with someone in the McLemore-Porter-Oladipo group instead of the Bennett-Harris-Michael Carter-Williams group.

With Jimmy Howard out, the Wings gave up 3 goals in the 3rd period and lost to an inferior Calgary team last night. They did, however, go 1-2 on the power play and broke their road scoreless streak on the PP. So there's that. They still suck though.

This is the course I'm running this Sunday. Gina & I are going to check it out this evening, and I'm going to attempt to run the back half to get a feel. Mental note to myself - I'm hanging out with a friend Friday night, take it easy on the beer. Michigan is playing PSU at 2:30 this afternoon to open their Big Ten Tournament. I may or may not hustle downstairs to watch the 1st half during my afternoon break. TBD.

Free Agency Happens

Not much going on in Detroit Sports action last night (thank God), but the Lions off-season is turning pretty interesting. Well, starting to turn interesting anyway.
NFL free agency kicked off yesterday, and the Lions have something like half their roster up in the air. So far they've let Gosder Cherilus slip away (thank God again), one supposes to open the door for Riley Reiff, and re-signed DeAndre Levy (ok), Amari Speivey (meh), Corey Hilliard (... can I get more apathetic than "meh"?), and are in the process of re-signing Chris Houston to a 3-year deal. They also tendered Willie Young, which means they're probably going to keep him. 

The big(ish) news is that Reggie Bush and Glover Quin are both visiting Allen Park today. If a deal gets done, the Lions' running game AND secondary should look better than it ever has this century (which isn't saying a whole lot, but...). With Stephen Jackson likely going to Green Bay, Reggie Bush is a necessary upgrade now more than ever. And now Louis Delmas is probably headed to St. Louis, so the safety position leap-frogged CB as the biggest off-season need. Getting Quin would more than make up for the loss of Delmas.

I'm hoping the Lions make a late run at Josh Cribbs, since WR and KR are both needs. If they decide to bring back Avril, I'm guessing it'll be a late signing and for less than the double-digit millions he's asking for right now. It's early in free agency but the way things have shaken out so far, the Lions may be eyeing a DE in the first round of the draft.

In Pistons Tanking News, the Pistons were off last night but several teams that are currently ahead of them in the lottery running pulled off semi-miraculous wins. Cleveland won the "well, someone has to win this" battle between them and Washington, putting them less than a 1/2 game ahead of the Pistons for the lottery. Unfortunately New Orleans lost, keeping them 1/2 game ahead of Detroit. However, Minnesota pulled off the upset against San Antonio's 'C' team, sliding them to the 9th spot & Detroit into 8th. A Piston loss tonight (VERY likely) along with wins by Philly (unlikely), Minnesota (slightly more likely), Washington (getting warmer), and/or Sacramento (nope, nope, ice cold... Antarctica cold) would also help their lotto cause.

I haven't posted much about the Wings, mainly because they're mediocre & boring this year. The only thing I'm really tracking (other than their point total) is this phenomenal road power play scoreless streak they've got going on. They've played in 10 road games, and they're 0-36 in those games. They've got another chance to break the streak tonight at Calgary. I'm not holding my breath. Detroit has among the league's worst special teams units, although Calgary is quite poor also.

*UPDATES - 

• The Lions signed Chris Houston to a 5-year deal. I'm cool with that
• The Tigers released Brennan Boesch, which hopefully means Castellanos goes north with the team when they break camp
• This is pretty close to what the Tigers' lineup will look like Opening Day, with the only differences being Avila at C instead of DH & batting 8th, and Victor Martinez at DH & batting 5th
• Reggie Bush is getting wined and dined, so to speak

Skunks & Running

I'm ramping up to run a 10k this Sunday in Plymouth, so I ran 4 miles yesterday morning and 5 miles this morning. My goal is to run the thing at a 8:30 mile pace, which would give me a time around 53 minutes or so. I'm getting there. This morning I averaged an 8:48 pace, thanks to another skunk showing up and making me run a faster 2nd and 3rd mile. There's something about a skunk crossing your path that gets your legs moving.

Anyway, I'm taking tomorrow off, Thursday we're driving to the actual course I'll be running & I'll run half of it or something, and Friday I'll get up and do some fartlek training, which is less gross than it sounds (I'll jog to one telephone pole, sprint to the next, jog to the next, sprint to the next & so on for a 5k distance).

The Pistons were inaction again (pun intended... sorry, had to) last night, losing once again, this time to Utah. Philly lost, giving the Pistons a little space, but none of the teams ranked lower lost, so for now the Pistons still sit in the 9 hole (draft-wise).

Brandon Knight went down with a serious sprain, which is good news for the Pistons' draft position but bad news for his development as a SG. He may be shut down for the year. At the moment the Pistons are without the services of Andre Drummond, Brandon Knight and Jason Maxiell. Knight and Max were starters, and Drummond was going to take Maxiell's starting spot and was one of the few players on the team who was truly enjoyable to watch. By the way, ESPN has video highlights of 8 of the top 10 draft prospects, and is the only place I've found a decent highlight video of Otto Porter.

Here's a breakdown of the Lions' cap situation (per Kevin Seifert at ESPN):

Cap Status: The Lions won't have much cap space to work with unless they can renegotiate/extend one of the two huge contracts on their books: quarterbackMatthew Stafford ($20.8 million cap figure) and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh($18.2 million). According to the Detroit Free Press, the Lions are projected to have $6 million in space at the moment.

Strategy: There are plenty of needs to squeeze into that small amount of cap space. The Lions would love to find a speedy tailback to fill the role once envisioned for Jahvid Best, a profile that seems to fit veteran Reggie Bush. But with only two of their 23 projected free agents now under contract, the Lions could have needs for two safeties, two defensive ends, two cornerbacks and one outside linebacker. That's because defensive ends Cliff Avril, Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young are all pending free agents. The same goes for cornerbacks Chris Houston and Jacob Lacey and safeties Louis Delmas and Amari Spievey. A weekend flooding of the cornerback/safety markets could drive down prices.

It's not pretty.

Both Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay have new mocks out, but I find their mock drafts to be lacking in accuracy. I think they evaluate prospects fine, but they don't seem to have a handle on what the different teams want to do. Check out the NFL.com guys, I think they have better talent evaluators and seem to know what's going on. Mike Mayock amazes the crap out of me with his ability to call draft picks with accuracy.

Lastly, I have to talk about some art stuff. The poster for Mad Men season 6 is sweet!

The artist's name is Brian Sanders, who does kind of a more scribbley version of what Bernie Fuchs and Bob Peak did (he names Fuchs first among artists he emulates, as do everybody who worked in that era). I love this style of illustration, which is both highly gestural and highly detailed at the same time. Anyway, the poster fits the show really well, and gives me hope for illustration to creep back in areas that have been dominated by Photoshop.

Poor Brandon Knight and Poor Big Ten

Greg Monroe owes Brandon Knight a dinner. And a car. And maybe set him up with his sister or something. 

Let me explain... No there is too much. Let me sum up: it's the 2nd quarter and the Pistons are already down by nearly 20 (they would go on to lose by 32). Greg Monroe was doing his usual on defense, which means he was watching the ball and completely lost his man, DeAndre Jordan. Naturally, Jordan rolled to the rim, Chris Paul threw a lob, and Brandon Knight switched over to try and break it up. Unfortunately, Knight is 6'3" and MAYBE 190 lbs, while Jordan is 6'11" and 265 lbs. That dunk was really a microcosm for the whole game, and both (game & dunk) reminded me of this scene:

Phoenix, Sacramento, New Orleans, and Minnesota are all a win away from letting the Pistons pass them on the way down to the top 5 picks in the lottery. Detroit is feeling some heat from Philly however, who looked like a playoff team only a month ago but have since pulled off an impressive 1-12 run. My wife & I are probably going to the April 15th meeting between Detroit & Philly. I'm hoping the Pistons will have their position locked up at that point, enabling me to root for a win without reservations. I'm also hoping Drummond will be back so there will be somebody on the floor worth watching.

Michigan had an opportunity to make several Big Ten teams (including themselves) very happy.  Whoops. Allow me to breeze over 39 minutes of exciting basketball to the last crucial minute. The score is 70-66 in favor of Michigan, and it's looking pretty good. Indiana only has 3 fouls, needing 7 to get Michigan into the bonus and begin that college basketball endgame that is extremely dull and extremely tense at the same time.
- They foul 3 times, the third being a shooting foul. GR3 hits 1 of 2 FT's, 71-66 U of M
- Zeller misses a layup but we can't rebound, so he gets his miss and puts it in, 71-68 Michigan
- Indy fouls Hardaway who misses the front end of the 1 & 1. Michigan INEXPLICABLY leaves no rebounders, so Indiana gets the ball back.
- Zeller gets fouled, hits both FT's. 71-70, Michigan.
- Burke gets instantly fouled, misses the front end of the 1 & 1, again Michigan provides no rebounders and Indiana has the ball with a chance to take the lead.
- Zeller gets blocked, makes the shot anyway, and Indiana has the lead, 72-71 with 14 seconds left in the game.
- Burke races into the lane, Indy's help D comes late, for some reason (ok, he was afraid Zeller was going to block it, except Zeller was out of position to get a block) he takes the most difficult version of the layup he can & misses. FOR ONCE Michigan gets the offensive rebound, but Jordan Morgan (who may never have made a lefty tip-in his entire life) tries to tip it in instead of grabbing it & dunking (he had PLENTY of time). He missed.

Michigan had an opportunity for 6 points in FT's that last minute. They got 1. And it was 3 of their 4 best offensive players missing the shots. Also puzzling was Beilein's decision to clear out the rebounders for the 1 & 1 foul shots. How often do players in that situation actually commit an accidental foul? Practically never! 

Anyway, Michigan got KILLED on the boards (as usual), missed key FT's down the stretch, and lost the game. Burke was mediocre for him, Hardaway... well, he hit some big shots but overall wasn't that good, and Glenn Robinson III doesn't look like an NBA player yet. I don't know where this buzz around him is coming from, but other than some fantastic dunks, he hasn't brought much.

With a couple of wins in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan could've been a #1 seed. Now, even if they WIN the Big Ten Tournament (not something I'd advocate attempting) they're probably a #2 seed at best. Most likely they win 1, maybe 2 games on their way to a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Diminishing Palace Fan Experience

I was reading Grantlant's NBA Shootaround yesterday, where they get different writers to chip in clips, gifs, and other input from watching the previous day's games. To my utter surprise, there was a section at the end on the Knicks at the Pistons. A writer called "netw3rk" who writes on the Knicks from time to time had this to say, among other things:

The Pistons arena staff continuously shelled the fans with T-shirt cannons, even during play, a thing Mike Breen says he has never seen before. And he's a big Jethro Tull fan.

Ok, first off - that's pretty funny. Secondly, it's also kind of sad. I started going to Pistons games on a semi-regular basis back in 2002, when I moved to Detroit for school. That team made the conference finals, the following team would go on to the NBA finals & win the thing. Good times for DEEE-TROIT BAAAASKETBALL! 

I can't remember which year it was they broke out the "great and powerful Oz" flame spurts for the pre-game intro, but it was either '03-'04 or '04-'05. They had the video intro, hype music, and all the other crazy stuff, and I remember thinking "wow, that was a little over the top"... But it was for a championship level team! The Pistons have been a lottery-level team for the last 4 years. 

I'm pretty sure they've taken away the flame spurts (a GOOD thing), but they still had them a year or 2 ago, and I basically spent the entire intro rolling my eyes and remembering the good times. 

This was the beginning of the end. The Pistons made their last Eastern Conference Finals that year, then Dumars dealt Billups & McDyess for Iverson. The next year we picked up Ben Gordon & Charlie V for too much money and traded Arron Afflalo for a 2nd round pick. Pumping out flame spurts at that point was like putting lipstick on a pig.

Now a Pistons game is more hype than substance. Giveaways or dance routines at every timeout, t-shirt launchings at every break in play, and sometimes DURING play. I went to a Pistons-Heat game last year & they had to actually stop play because one of the orange balls they sometimes shoot out of the t-shirt cannons had been blown back onto the court by the air conditioning. 

This is stupid. Give people time to talk to each other. I'm not going to more games on the off chance I might catch a shirt or get a free pizza or something. Someone is going to get killed some day by one of these t-shirt cannons. 

Michigan, the Tanking? Pistons and Reggie Bush

Lions at home, lambs on the road. It's been Michigan's problem ever since the Big Ten season started. It was a problem last night, but one they were fortunate to overcome. Purdue is not a good team, but they made Michigan sprint in the 2nd half to keep up. 91 points were scored in the 2nd half of that game. That defense that looked so good against MSU (which is a top 10 team by most standards) looked... not there... against Purdue. 

Fortunately the offense showed up & were able to out-pace Terone Jackson's 32 pts. Burke finished with 26, 7 & 3 steals, Stauskas, Hardaway and McGary played well, and no one else really did. They'll all have to bring it if they're going to win Sunday vs. Indiana. By the way, there's a big pileup at the top of the Big Ten standings. As many as 4 different teams could have a share of the Big Ten title if Michigan beats the Hoosiers.

I'm not sure if the Pistons are actually tanking or not. It feels like they are. They never tried to get a replacement SF after the Calderon trade, they just filled in with Singler and Stuckey. They're not in a rush to bring Drummond back anytime soon, even though it sounded like he could have been back a week ago. Charlie V and Greg Monroe had minor injuries that kept them out of last night's game (I think if Monroe had played, the Pistons had a shot). If they announce sometime next week that Drummond is "shut down for the season", that's the official TANKING bell going off.

Not that I blame them. I think this is a 6 player draft. There's always the chance that some team like Minnesota will reach for a guy about 5 picks too early (KAAAHN!), but you can't count on 3 teams doing that and letting either Oladipo, McLemore or Porter slip to the Pistons at 9th. There's 19 games left. Detroit isn't going to "beat" Charlotte for the worst overall record, probably not catching Orlando for 2nd worst or Washington for 3rd worst (as an aside, this would be the 5th year in a row Washington finished with a bottom-5 record), but the other 5 teams are only a difference of a couple wins by them & a couple losses by Detroit from getting the Pistons the 4th worst record. Yay!

The Lions have been linked to one major free agents this year NOT currently on the team: Reggie Bush. The offense suffered from the lack of Jahvid Best in 2012, it looks to have a similar lack of Jahvid Best in 2013 & the foreseeable future. This must be dealt with. Well, the 2 major RB's hitting free agency this year are Stephen Jackson and Reggie Bush, and Bush does what Best did, only better. So I perked up when I saw that Bill Barnwell wrote an article on Bush's pending free agency & what he could contribute in the future. Here's a point-by-point summary if you're too lazy to read it (but you should really read it):

• Pass catching RB's are more valuable now than ever
• Reggie Bush is a pass catching RB. Very much so, in fact
• Bush has also carried Miami's offense the past 2 years
• Despite being 27, there aren't a lot of miles on Reggie Bush & his best years may be ahead of him

Sounds good to me. Remember, Bush returns punts!

Lions Draft Preview

Football is king, emporer, and lord of all sports in this country. The NFL draft is in 7 weeks and 2 days, we're in the middle of a shortened hockey season and towards the end of a fascinating NBA season (less so with the Pistons, but...), and I HAVE to talk about the NFL draft. 

As promised, I'm about to break down the first 3 rounds of the Lions' potential draft, but first a little house keeping. Since the end of the 2012 season, the Lions have released embattled (I wish I could say that more strongly) WR Titus Young, perpetually struggling G Stephen Peterman, and aging DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. They've also got a laundry list of free agents to either sign or let go, most notably DE Cliff Avril, S Louis Delmas, basically every CB that lined up there (other than the rookies), LB's Justin Durant and DeAndre Levy, RT Gosder Cherilus, K Jason Hanson... It's a long list. I'm guessing they'll let Cherilus go, Stefan Logan, maybe one of the LB's, and a nice handful of the FA corners. There will be a few holes to fill.

CB is the biggest hole. The Lions haven't used a high pick on a corner since Westbrook, and it's been a need almost every year. So maybe don't draft another DT, right? The offensive line is also a big mess, with Peterman gone, Cherilus MAYBE, and Backus and Raiola on 1-year (maybe final-year) deals. They drafted Reiff last year (instead of Janoris Jenkins, it still ticks me off!), so he can probably slide in at RT, but it's still a BIG need and it's hard to get quality linemen in free agency. DE is a need, LB is a need and S is a big need too. WR is the only need on offense, other than line, but I'd like to see them address that in free agency instead of the draft (PLEASE!). There's also a lot of rumblings about the Lions targeting Reggie Bush to fill the Jahvid Best-sized hole in the offense. I'm cool with that. Anyway, needs in order:
1) CB (biggest need by a wide margin)
2) Offensive Line (T, G, C, take your pick which)
3) DE (Vanden Bosch is gone, maybe Avril too)
4) S
5)WR/KR (it needs to be addressed somewhere, so I'm combining kick returner with WR)
6) LB

The Lions pick 5th in the 1st round, 4th in the second (36th overall), and 3rd in the third round (65th overall). They have no 4th round pick. I'll take a look at 3 guys I like, as ranked by ESPN, that fall in the realm of those 3 picks.

1a) Dee Milliner CB, Alabama 6'1", 197 lbs - 4.37 40-time
He's tough, hits hard, and can stick to a WR's hip pocket. I REALLY want the Lions to get this guy.

1b) Eric Fisher OT, Central Michigan 6'7", 307 lbs - 5.05 40-time, 27 reps
There's some debate as to whether he or Texas A&M guy Luke Joeckel is the top LT in this draft. I'd take either, but Joeckel will probably be gone by the Lions' pick.

1c) Ziggy Ansah DE, BYU 6'5", 271 lbs - 4.63 40-time, 21 reps
He's relatively new to the game, but he's a freakish athlete. Plus, he goes by "Ziggy". So there you go.

That wraps up the first round. The second round gets interesting...

2a) Cornellius "Tank" Carradine DE, FLorida State 6'4", 276 lbs - 28 reps
Yet another ACL injury question mark in the 2nd round for the Lions, but he looks too good to pass up.

2b) Xavier Rhodes CB, Florida State 6'1", 210 lbs - 4.43 40-time, 14 reps
Probably the 2nd best corner in the draft, not great at run support but he blankets his WR.

2c) Justin Pugh OG, Syracuse 6'4", 307 lbs - 5.14 40-time
Played at LT his entire career but projects as a guard. Ok. My respect if you can make it through 9 minutes of offensive line highlights.

On to the 3rd round. Here's where we roll the dice a little...

3a) Tyrann Mathieu CB, LSU 5'9", 186 lbs - 4.51 40-time, 4 reps 
(c'mon, I could probably do 4 reps!)
That's right, the Honey Badger! Draft him, get him a mentor, and watch him intercept passes and return punts for touchdowns. Hey, Deion likes him.

3b) Margus Hunt DE, Southern Methodist 6'8", 277 lbs - 4.60 40-time, 38 reps
He had the top bench in the combine, top 40-time out of all D-linemen, and the dude is 6'8"! He's Estonian, learned the game from playing Madden, and if he had played in the SEC he'd probably be a first or second round pick.

3c) D.J. Swearinger S, South Carolina 5'10", 208 lbs - 4.67 40-time, 17 reps
With the better prospects Elam and Cyprien gone, he's the Lions' best shot at filling the need at safety. Swearinger probably brings more penalties than the Lions could afford, but hopefully the great examples around him will keep the roughing flags away. Yeah.

That's it for now. I think at least 2 of the Lions' first 3 picks should be on the defensive side of the ball, they need LOADS of help on defense. What'll be interesting is if a team is interested in moving up to take a QB or something. There aren't any QB's with a top 10 grade in this draft, but that hasn't stopped teams in the past from moving up to take one. If Milliner's gone & the Lions can find a trade partner, they could grab a guy like Kenny Vaccaro, Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper a few picks later & be in great shape.

This is actually a pretty good draft (depth-wise) in positions of need for the Lions. I think it's time they relaxed their Best Player Available strategy SLIGHTLY.