Monday, August 3, 2015

The Tigers' Deadline Reboot

The Tigers went into trade deadline week having lost 2 series and split one since the All Star break. At somewhere between 4 & 5 games out of the Wild Card, the consensus was the team wasn't good enough to contend this year and needed to get younger. The Tigers haven't drafted all that well, and most of their better young talent has been used in trade to acquire immediate impact vets. With three of their top players - David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Joakim Soria - entering into free agency this winter, the Tigers opted to cash them in for whatever prospects they could get.

I followed the Price deal very closely, since Price is on my fantasy team and I lose him for nothing if he gets traded to the NL. Fortunately, the Tigers found a buyer in the AL and got what I thought was a VERY good deal.
Dombrowski sent Price north to Toronto, getting 3 LHP prospects in return - Daniel Norris, Jairo Labourt, and Matt Boyd. Labourt and Boyd are middling prospects and may never turn out to be much, but Norris was a HUGE get. Keith Law had him ranked as the #18 prospect in all of baseball
going into this year, and had this to say:
"On any given night, Norris can show you four average or better pitches, with a plus slider and changeup and the ability to touch the mid-90s (although at the risk of coming out of his delivery). ... He's athletic enough to be able to maintain a consistent delivery, and the raw stuff is certainly there - he was fifth in the minors in strikeouts in 2014 - for him to be a frontline major league starter."
Norris was a really good get for Price, who the Tigers were losing for nothing anyway at the end of this season. Norris's debut with Detroit was on Sunday, and he basically had everyone saying, "Price who?" Saying he'll REPLACE Price is a bit of a stretch, but he's had a pretty nice start.


Soria was the next domino to fall, getting dealt to Pittsburgh a few hours after the Price deal. The player Detroit got in return, JaCoby Jones, is a mid-level SS prospect currently toiling away in double A. He's a 5-tool guy (speed, hit for power, hit for average, glove, throwing arm), so if he can put it together and make the big league club, this trade will look really good for Detroit. Right now it's a "well, at least we got something" trade.

Finally, Yoenis Cespedes was shipped to the Mets for a couple more pitching prospects. I like the deal from the prospective that there's a decent chance Cespedes signs back with Detroit in the offseason. Of the two prospects Detroit got in return, Matt Fulmer and Luis Cessa, Fulmer is the better prospect. Grantland's Jonah Keri thinks Fulmer might make the rotation as early as next spring. Cessa has been getting lit up since his promotion to triple A, but hopefully that's more a product of playing in the VERY hitter-friendly Vegas minor league ballpark in the VERY hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Fulmer is a good "get", and the Mets' reluctance to part with him is probably why this deal got done only at the last minute. Zack Wheeler would've been REALLY nice to get, but his inclusion in the proposed (and nixed) Carlos Gomez deal was based on the fact that CarGo has another year of team control. Getting Fulmer is good enough, and hopefully Cespedes comes back next year anyway.

Take a look at the Tigers' updated prospects list. Norris is at the top, although now he's with the big club he's less of a "prospect" and more of a player. Fulmer slots in at #5 on the list, just behind Buck Farmer, who's filled in with a spot start here and there already. Anybody that high on the list stands a chance to play in the majors next year. Matt Boyd and Luis Cessa follow at #8 and #9, which indicates that they're a couple of years away from debuting just yet. Finally, JaCoby Jones and Jairo Labourt come in at #13 and #15, respectively. They're at least 4 or 5 years away, if they're going to make it at all.

I liked the Tigers' moves overall. The pressure is off and I can enjoy the games without getting too frustrated with every loss. Plus, Dombrowski did a good job to get what he did. Dave Dombrowski's contract is up at the end of the year as well, and he may follow Price and the others out the door. If that's the case, I think he's left the team in decent shape to rebuild. They're still wearing Justin Verlander's contract like an albatross around their neck, but they've got some young talent coming up that mitigates the impact of some of those larger contracts. I think they'll re-sign Cespedes, and then hopefully they'll focus most of the rest of their spending on bullpen arms.

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