Thursday, July 16, 2015

The Tigers Enter the Wasteland

The MLB All Star game is over and games start again this Friday, so let's take a look at the Tigers going into the 2nd half (technically they've already played more than half a season, but traditionally the All Star Break is considered the halfway point). The Tigers' record is .500 at 44-44, which is viewed as a big disappointment, given the season expectations.

The Tigers opened the season with the 4th-highest payroll in baseball, which ideally should lead to some wins. Unfortunately, while they improved some areas on the team, the starting pitching and the bullpen didn't get as much help. The offense & fielding were bolstered by the additions of Yoenis Cespedes (trade) and Jose Iglesias (return from injury), but they lost Max Scherzer (free agency) and Rick Porcello (traded for Cespedes) and did not adequately replace them (Simon and Greene have stunk, stunk, STUNK). They also did nothing to bolster the bullpen, which has been this team's Achilles' Heel since the Tigers have been good enough to HAVE an Achilles' Heel.

Of all the issues holding this team back, the pitching gets the most attention, and rightfully so. The Tigers have the 4th-highest ERA in baseball and the 5th-lowest number of strikeouts. That's probably not good. If you break it up between starters and relievers, it makes it a bit clearer. The Tigers' starters rank 18th in the MLB right now, which is actually better than the Royals and Giants who both have better records than Detroit does, and just below the Twins & Angels. The bullpen is a different story. A team can overcome a mediocre starting rotation with a good bullpen, or a mediocre bullpen can be overcome with good offense & starters, but nothing can overcome a 'pen as bad as this one.

Dombrowski added Neftali Feliz a few days ago, which was a classic Dombrowski move. Pick up a mostly-washed up, former closer and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. This is Joe Nathan, Soria, and Jim Johnson all over again, and I expect it to be about as unsuccessful as those moves were. The big speculation is whether the Tigers will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, likely adding an arm if they're buyers. The next 10 games are pretty crucial to determining which road the Tigers will take. If they're sellers, expect them to look to deal David Price and Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline. Neither player is under contract next year.

The Tigers' offense is actually pretty good, ranking 5th in Batting WAR and 3rd in runs scored. However, they could be a lot better. The Tigers are leading the league in GDP (that's "Grounded into Double-Play, not Gross Domestic Product) and times caught stealing, two stats that take potential runs off the board. UBR is a stat that takes into consideration all other aspects of baserunning, like getting thrown out, not tagging up, etc. The Tigers don't rank well there either. If they lead the league in grounding into double plays, caught stealing, and are towards the bottom in EVERY OTHER ASPECT OF BASERUNNING, we're not a good baserunning team. This is odd to me, because aside from two or three guys, we have good or even great speed across the board. So we either have some of the slowest fast guys in baseball, or our coaches aren't doing a good job of deciding when to send a guy and when to reign him in. I think it's probably the latter.

Based on the use of the bullpen, baserunning, and other decisions, I'd say coaching has already cost this team a couple of games. The real problem is the bullpen, and I don't think there's an easy fix for that. Unfortunately for this season, I think the Tigers' best move is to embrace a rebuild. I really like Cespedes and Price is by far their best starter, but this team is a mess right now and they're too top heavy in salary.

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