This was a very frustrating Pistons offseason for me. They passed on Justise Winslow in the draft. Ok, I've heard compelling arguments from the other side and have come to believe this is less of an incredible screw up than I originally thought. Both players are close. Most experts favored Winslow. He was only 1/2 an inch shorter, more athletic, and an elite defender. Johnson's offensive game was a bit more polished, he was stronger (with an extra 20 lbs of muscle), and he looked slightly less good than Winslow in every other category. Personally, I'd take the defensive freak, but I see the argument for Johnson has some merit.
Then came the trades and free agency. SVG traded for Ersan Ilyasova prior to the draft. With Monroe certainly heading out of town, Van Gundy wanted to add depth to the PF position. Ilyasova is a stretch 4 (he shoots .370% from 3pt range for his career, although his seasonal averages waver from about .400% to about .300), which fits with Drummond and Van Gundy's offense much better than Monroe did. However, the move cost the Pistons some cap space. This becomes important a little later.
The Pistons had targeted a couple of SFs to go after in free agency. Danny Green, a SG/SF, was a restricted FA for the Spurs. Reportedly we called him at 12:01AM the instant free agency began. Here's my impression of how that conversation may have played out:
Stan Van Gundy: Hey Danny, happy free agency! This is Stan from the Pistons, just wanted to let you know that we really like you and will pay you a lot of money to come to Detroit.
Danny Green: Um, yeah, thanks Stan. I appreciate that. But you should know that I'm already with someone, I'm happy here, and I think I really have a chance to help build something special.
SVG: That's great Danny, but do they appreciate YOU? I've got a $60M contract here that proves how much I appreciate you. What have the Spurs done for you lately?
DG: Well, we won a national championship like a year ago. Money isn't everything, and I'm committed to this relationship and I want to make it work. If that means taking less money to stay, I can make that sacrifice.SVG: Relationships are a two-way street, Danny. Remember that. We'll be here if you need us.
DG: Yeah, okay.
SVG: By the way, do you have a friend?
DeMarre Carroll was next on the list. He had a breakout season last year as the starting SF for the Hawks. Carroll was on his first free agent visit with Toronto, heard the number he wanted to hear, and cancelled his other visits. I figured Draymond Green wouldn't see the light of day, that Golden State would lock him up before he had a chance to hear any offers. Their contract talks broke down, so for a few hours I had a slim hope that the Warriors were insincere in their desire to re-sign Green at any cost. Unfortunately, Golden State recovered and offered a max-type deal of 5 years, $85M which Green gladly accepted.
That left Tobias Harris - a young SF/PF combo-forward with 3pt range, Wes Matthews - a 3&D SG/SF coming off an Achilles tear, and Khris Middleton - a throw-in from the Brandon Jennings/Knight trade who turned into a 3&D monster. Both Harris and Middleton were RFAs, so the incumbent team could match any offer. The word on Harris was Orlando wasn't going to match a near-max deal, so he was supposedly more attainable than Middleton was. Matthews was less desirable, since he was coming off of a serious injury and was more of a 2 than a 3 or 4. Harris seemed like it was going to happen, and then... this.
Aron Baynes is basically a replacement-level player the Pistons signed for the type of money that goes to your best guy off the bench. Several equivalent or even better players went for far less money. And not only was it an overpay, it killed any cap space the Pistons had for signing Harris, Middleton, or Matthews. Van Gundy mitigated this terrible move and his failure to sign any of the names he had targeted by making a deal with Phoenix to help them clear cap space. The trade sent a 2020 2nd round pick to the Suns for Marcus Morris (who will either start at SF or come off the bench as a SF or PF), Danny Granger (who might get cut or might be a 2nd- or 3rd-string SF), and Reggie Bullock (who might get cut or might be the 3rd-string SG or SF).
By all accounts, both trades were considered favorable to Detroit. In both cases we lost little and gained more. The Baynes signing was pretty bad, probably overpaying him by 30-50%. Reggie Jackson signed a near-max deal to stay in Detroit, which I considered a solid move. But the object this offseason should have been to put the team in good position for next offseason. Detroit was one of a few teams with good cap space to sign free agents. Next season, everyone will have good cap space. They needed to sign their max guy this year and go for filler next year.
I'm reserving total judgment in the hopes that SVG is working on asset acquisition, hoping to pull off some One Red Paperclip type of swindle. Van Gundy could be looking for players who have a talent/value gap on the open market, but that wouldn't explain the Baynes signing. At this point they have to either hope that they're good enough to attract a quality FA, or that they're bad enough to land a top 3 draft pick. They've lived in the middle ground for the past 7 years.
***
Stanley Johnson has been really good in Summer League play. Through 3 games he's averaging 17 pts, 6.5 rebs, 2 assists, 2 steals, he had a monsterous block on Justise Winslow, and he's shooting .704/.500/.563. This is a ridiculously small sample size, and it's Summer League. Summer League success doesn't necessarily translate to the NBA regular season, just ask Austin Daye.
In the anticipated Winslow/Johnson matchup yesterday, Johnson acquitted himself very well. He only took 5 shots but managed 14 points, 7 boards, 2 dimes, 2 steals and dat block! Plus, he mentioned a couple of "hockey assists" (passes that lead to passes that lead to baskets) which don't show up in the stat sheet. He also racked up 5 fouls, all in the first half. Johnson's assessment was he wasn't playing strong, physical defense, causing him to lose Winslow and bump him when Johnson tried to recover. He adjusted in the 2nd half and was much better.
Stanley Johnson looks like he has the potential to be a very good player in the NBA. I don't think he'll ever be a STAR, but he might make an all star team or 2.
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