The Lions get Suh back for their playoff game, since his suspension was changed to be a $70k fine. By a stroke of luck, he managed to get himself in trouble in the first game he was no longer considered a repeat offender, so the NFL wasn't allowed to take his checkered past into account. This gives Detroit a shot at beating Dallas on Sunday.
The line is Dallas by 7, which seems high unless you buy Dallas as legit. Tony Romo has a history of blowing playoff games, but he's spent most of this year overcoming history. Besides, Matt Stafford has a history of losing to good teams on the road (0-16, or 1 Rod Marinelli). Dallas doesn't have a good defense, and if Detroit can shut down the run game, Romo could be in for a long day.
The problem - Dallas has a GREAT offensive line. They're the top run-blocking line in the NFL, and the Lions' D line had their worst game of the season last week vs. Green Bay (not a good running team). Their pass protection isn't nearly as good, however, so if Dallas is stuck playing from behind (when has THAT happened this year?) or if Detroit can stuff their run game, the Lions will win. If Fairley is back at about 80% or better (which is a bit of a longshot), I give them good odds to upset the Cowboys.
Special teams is the largest area in which the Lions suffer. Detroit's ST unit had another bad day vs. the Packers, and they can't afford another. Dallas' unit is average this year, but just about anyone can look good vs. Detroit.
Detroit's #2 defense hasn't looked good against good teams on the road. New England housed them, as did Green Bay last week. Detroit will look better if Fairley can play, but they've been stout against the run even without him. The Lions D cannot get off to another slow start, and they have to generate turnovers (plural). Dallas gets the edge in this one unless the Lions convincingly win the turnover battle & special teams doesn't lay another egg.
For what it's worth, the Lions practiced exactly how you want a team to practice going into a playoff game. At this point Fairley is a 50/50 bet to play, Warford is probably out (Swanson has been an adequate replacement for Warford), but the team is loose and focused. Ok.
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The Pistons ripped off their 3rd straight win since releasing Josh Smith. The team looks like it's having more fun, and the offense looks like it's actually working. I think this is as much a product of Jodie Meeks finally getting healthy as it is of the loss of J-Smoove, but whatever the case, the offense is clicking for the first time all season. Check out the open looks Meeks was getting in his 34-pt performance in Orlando:
He had a hot hand, no doubt (in fact on one play he started calling for the ball as soon as he crossed halfcourt), but he had a TON of space to shoot. The guy mainly responsible for guarding him, Evan Fournier, was cheating inside a lot to help on Drummond. He flat-out lost Meeks on some of those threes, or he didn't have enough time to get back. Spacing has improved A LOT since Smith was ditched, and that has shown up beyond the arc.
- Pistons with Smith: 5-23 record, 215 3PM, 652 3PA and a .330 3P%
- Pistons without Smith: 3-0 record, 41 3PM, 90 3PA and a .456 3P%
Oddly enough, the defense has gotten better as well. Smith was probably the Pistons' best defender, or at least top 3, and Greg Monroe is one of the liabilities on D, but the Pistons have gotten friskier on defense, holding their last 2 opponents to under 90 points. ESPN's 5 on 5 almost unanimously picked the Pistons as the EC team making the biggest leap in 2015 and 2 of them picked Drummond as the EC player to make the biggest leap. This is no doubt related to being, as one writer put, "prisoner of the moment," but there is evidence to support improvement on Detroit's 8-23 record. SVG is a good coach who can overcome slow starts, Detroit's stars are better than they've been playing, more Meeks helps, and expect SVG to make other moves this year as well.
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The B1G Ten have been having a better bowl season than the SEC. Wisconsin, MSU and OSU all won exciting games, with OSU heading to the title game. Michigan's hiring of Harbaugh was as good as a bigtime bowl win, as far as recruiting is concerned.
I'll agree with something Mike Golic said yesterday. The SEC is still the best conference, but the difference between them and the other power 5 conferences is less than we thought. By the same token, the B1G Ten is a lot better than they got credit for. MSU squeaked a win over a Baylor team that narrowly missed the playoff. Wisconsin nosed past a tough Auburn team, and Minnesota was only down by 2 to Missouri until the Tigers ran in a 78-yard TD with just over 9 min to go. The B1G is currently 5-3 in bowl games with Iowa and OSU still having games left to play.
In college sports, coaching is king. The B1G Ten now features 3 top coaches - Urban Meyer, Harbaugh & D'Antonio - are probably all in the top 10 of all college coaches. Harbaugh & Meyer are crazy-good recruiters, and D'Antonio has done a LOT with less, getting the most out of the 3-star recruits that OSU & UofM picks over. In a couple of years the B1G Ten is going to be what the SEC was when Alabama & LSU played each other in the title game.
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