Monday, January 26, 2015

Back to the drawing board for the Pistons, Harbaugh goes recruitin'

I'm not calling R.I.P. on the Pistons' season just yet, but it's basically on life support right now. Brandon Jennings, probably the biggest contributor to the Pistons current hot streak (other than the absense of Josh Smith), went down for the season with a torn achilles tendon. Prognosis for Jennings - out 6-9 months as a best case scenario. Prognosis for the Pistons - short of a super lucky D League signing or a Godfather trade, this season is toast.

At this point Stan Van Gundy is looking for a band-aid to help the team limp into the playoffs. The top 5 teams in the East - Atlanta, Washington, Toronto, Chicago and Cleveland - may change seeding amongst themselves, but I don't see any of them dropping out, short of a devastating injury. Of the bottom 3, Miami is the one that may move up. Charlotte is in the 8th spot and 2 games ahead of Detroit. Miami is 7th and Milwaukee (the team that JUST beat the Pistons by 15, and it wasn't that close) is 6th. In other words, it doesn't look good.

First, what can the Pistons do NOW to improve their chances of making the playoffs? First, they need a PG. They can either swing a trade or else sign a guy out of the D League. The 2 rumors currently going around are 1) the Pistons are exploring a trade for Knicks backup PG Pablo Prigioni, and 2) they're looking at bringing up Lorenzo Brown from their D League affiliate team. The issues with option #1 are that the Knicks reportedly want a 2nd rounder for Prigioni, he's 37, and he's not that good. The problems with option #2 is Brown is a better shooter than a ball handler, with a .588 TS% but a 1.05 ast:tov ratio (ideally you want at least a 2, Jennings was at 3 exactly), and that's in the D League where the defense isn't as good. 


Another trade option would be to go after the Lakers' Jeremy Lin, who was a healthy scratch a couple of nights ago and hasn't yet found a spot in the Lakers' starting rotation. The issue with Lin is the price tag. He's well overpaid at $14.9M with an $8.4M cap hit. The only way to make the trade work is to include Monroe, which would be like robbing Peter to pay Paul. The Pistons would have to hope Lin could get back to the playmaking level he was at with the Knicks & his first year in Houston. The other issue is that he represents a desirable expiring contract, so the Lakers would want to work out some kind of sign & extend deal with Monroe.


SVG may also be looking at a player he's very familiar with, Jameer Nelson. I don't know why Denver would do this trade unless Detroit swaps out Cartier Martin for a 2nd-round pick (which you can't simulate in the NBA Trade Machine). Nelson would be an ideal fit, having excelled in SVG's offense in Orlando, and at 32 he's still got something left in the tank. If Detroit is able to trade for him before the deadline this would be the 4th team he's played on this year, which has to be some kind of record.

If SVG opts not to improve the PG position by trade, he may scour the D league. Seth Curry (brother of Steph Curry), Larry Drew II, and David Stockton (son of John Stockton) all represent decent playmaking options out of the D League. I like Curry's upside the best, although Drew & Stockton have better playmaking profiles. The guy they're currently considering, Lorenzo Brown, has the profile as a playmaker in college but has mainly been a shooter in the D League this year.

If the Pistons decide not to go for broke to try and make the 8th seed in the East (probably the wiser move), Van Gundy will need to prepare for the offseason and the draft IMMEDIATELY. First priority would be getting something for Monroe. Greg Monroe is most likely leaving next year. It looked promising for a minute after S-Smoove left and before Jennings got hurt, but now he's probably a lock to go to the Lakers or someplace like that. LA traded for Dwight Howard in 2012, who was similarly on an expiring deal, so it's conceivable that they'd do Monroe for Lin or something like that. Detroit may also try to deal him to Boston for 1 or 2 of their many draft picks.

Other than personnel moves, the Pistons need to work on the development of Drummond and KCP. Neither player has exactly wowed this season, and SVG needs to figure out what he's got there. In the meantime, let's
pour one out for Brandon Jennings.
 

***

While the University of Michigan's basketball season is in shambles, things are looking up for the football team's 2015 season. Jim Harbaugh has gone on a recruiting rampage. He's been in the unenviable position of having to lure already committed recruits from wherever they had committed to over to Michigan. Well, he got 3-star DE Reuben Jones to come over from Nebraska, 2-or-3-star OL Nolan Ulizio to abandon his commitment to UConn, and the big one 4-star QB Zach Gentry to decommit from Texas and switch to Big Blue. All 3 are positions Michigan is weak at (really, where AREN'T they weak?), especially the QB spot. Another guy that may commit in the near future is 3-star DB Chris Williamson, who was part of the same big visit that included Gentry, Jones and Ulizio.


Starting with the big one, and at 6'7" QB Zach Gentry is BIG, unfortunately the only real highlights I could find on him are this 80-yard run and this 85-yard run. He's got some wheels for a big guy, although I don't expect a ton of read option out of Harbaugh's offense. I'd have liked to have seen more throwing highlights, considering Gentry is considered a "pocket passer" prospect, but the physical tools are definitely there.
 


DE Reuben Jones sort of came out of nowhere his senior season. He doesn't have ideal measurables as a DE and his technique could use a little work, but with a redshirt season to bulk up and get some coaching, he could be a player.



Ulizio projects as a RT or a guard. He blocks well in space, and I love watching a lineman finish a block 10 yards downfield.

One of the least-exact sciences in football is projecting how a recruit is going to pan out. So much depends on how he's coached up, scheme-fit, how his body matures as a collegiate athlete, and there isn't a lot of tape vs. FBS-level competition. This could end up being a pretty good class for Harbaugh, but it'll be at least 2 years before we start to see the fruits of it and who knows what these guys will develop into.

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