Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Jennings Motors the Pistons, Lions have work to do

Many have attributed the Pistons' recent surge to the release of Josh Smith, and rightly so. The Pistons were 5-23 prior to releasing Smith and are 9-1 since. It's hard to argue with that. A large part of the credit whould also go to Brandon Jennings, who has played like an All Star since J-Smoove was sent packing.

Brandon Jennings Prior to Smith's Release:
11.7 ppg, 6.1 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 0.9 steals, 2.6 rpg on .361/.321/.855 shooting

Brandon Jennings Since Smith's Release:
22.7 ppg, 7.4 apg, 1.6 tov, 1.6 stl, 2.7 rpg on .470/.422/771 shooting.

If that means nothing to you, think about it this way - Jennings went from playing like Mo Williams to playing like Stephen Curry. HO.LY. CRAP. Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, know that this production is not sustainable. Jennings is a notoriously streaky shooter whose best shooting year before this one was 2011-12 when he had splits of .418/.332/.808. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers.

Either 1) Jennings figured out his stroke the same day Josh Smith was dumped, 2) SVG's offense suddenly started to mesh perfectly with Jennings' game, or 3) Jennings is on a hot streak that will ebb away in a few games. To be honest, I think it's a combination of #2 and #3. Brandon Jennings has too much of a history as an up & down shooter for me to think that this will last, but the architecture of the offense changed dramatically when Smith left and the 2 guys who benefit the most from that are Jennings and Monroe. Jennings isn't going to play like Steph Curry the rest of the season. He's Brandon Jennings, not Steph Curry. But I think he'll be a better version of Brandon Jennings from here on out. Let's look at Monday night's game.



This was not a particularly well-played game by the Pistons. Jonas Valanciunas worked over both Greg Monroe & Andre Drummond to the tune of 31 points and 11 boards. Kyle Lowry had 12 dimes and spread the ball around pretty well, with 7 Raptors scoring in double figures and the team shooting 54% as a whole. The Pistons didn't shoot it well and really only got good offensive performances out of Jennings and Monroe. Exactly the type of game they would have lost a month ago.

Fortunately, it's not a month ago. The Pistons are a different team. After being down by 12 at the half, Detroit flipped a switch in the 3rd quarter and outscored Toronto 66-51 the rest of the way. Jennings went off, the shooting got a little better, and the defense put the clamps on. Jennings had one of his better defensive performances on Lowry, holding him to 3-12 shooting and 7 turnovers, including the game-sealing steal.

The Pistons' only loss since December 21st (last game played with Josh Smith) was to the East-leading Atlanta Hawks. Toronto is #2 in the East, Detroit eked that one out. They also have victories over Dallas & San Antonio, a couple of Western Conference teams that will make the playoffs. They also have wins over Cleveland & Brooklyn, a couple of dumpster-fire teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. This would be a terrible injustice, because Detroit is currently playing like a 4 or 5 seed in the East and a 7 or 8 seed in the West (the West is frickin' PACKED). Grantland's Zach Lowe on things he likes/hates:
6. Watching the Nets
I can no longer live in a world where the Nets could make the playoffs, and two teams out of the Suns, Thunder, and Pelicans will stay home. This cannot be.
... ... ...
The Pistons need to snag that no. 8 seed and FORM A F**KING WALL to prevent the Nets from touching it ever again. 
 I left out his list of reasons why the Nets are unwatchable because while funny, we're not talking about the Nets. A little further down he listed Jodie Meeks' weakside offense as a thing he likes. Now, the Pistons as the 8th seed would be rough. On one hand, it would be their first playoff appearance since 2009, and I feel like they could give Atlanta or whoever a run for their money. On the other hand, they would still most likely lose, and they wouldn't get a good draft pick this year. Detroit would have to leap frog 4 teams, but they are 3 games out of the 7th seed, which is MUCH more preferable. 8 seeds almost never get to the 2nd round, but 7 seeds have a shot. If they can stay hot, Detroit moves into the 7 seed, Miami bumps up to 6th, Cleveland falls to 8th, and Brooklyn bombs out.

***

The Lions' offseason looks to be a bumpy one. They don't have a high draft pick, their best defensive player is either going to leave or cost them a TON of money, and their best assistant coach is probably out the door to take a HC job in either Denver or Atlanta.

Digging underneath what Martin Mayhew said in his season-ending presser, the Lions are probably looking to replace both Dominic Raiola and Rob Sims. Raiola's replacement would most likely be Travis Swanson, who filled in capably at different points this season. Sims could be replaced internally by Garrett Reynolds, but more likely Mayhew will try to either draft a replacement or pick one up in free agency.

All starting defensive tackles are set to go into free agency, which is a problem. The Lions would probably like to get both Suh & Fairley back but that will prove to be difficult. They need to improve their secondary, and the offense needs work (looking at you, Lombardi & Stafford). With Teryl Austin most likely gone, Caldwell is going to have to pull another miracle & find a gem of a DC somewhere.

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