Pistons Preview

DEEE-troit BAAAS-ketball is around the corner, believe it or not. The last preseason game is tomorrow, the regular season kicks off in 1 week at Denver. So what have we got to look forward to?

 

I love this series, the Bill & Jalen's NBA Preview series. They're funny, Jalen knows the league as a former player, Simmons has interesting theories, and Jalen (being a native Detroiter) is a Pistons fan! It's a good breakdown of what is or may be in store for the Pistons this season, so if you have the time (it runs about 13 min long) you should check it out. Instead of doing a broad overview, I'm going to focus on a couple different areas and then give a prediction for the season. Here we go:

 
Andre Drummond's development. Offensively, Drummond was basically the same guy in his 2nd year as he was his rookie year. He just got more minutes & took more shots. 81% of his shots came from inside 3 ft and he made 69% of them, and he made less that 40% of his shots in the 3-10 ft range. I'd like him to expand out as far as 12 ft, take more shots from 3-10 ft (say 25-30%), and up his shooting % at that distance to about 40-44%. He's got a hook shot that's a work in progress, he'll also need to add a turn around jumper and an up & under move to get there. Defensively, Drummond needs to improve his on-the-ball defense. He's a capable help defender (not on that Ben Wallace level though), but his man defense needs some work. If his defense improves and his offense stays the same, Drummond makes an All Star team.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's emergence as a scorer. I didn't like the KCP draft pick last year. The Pistons needed a PG, Trey Burke was available, and they took a 2 guard. I still don't like the pick because Burke looks GOOD for Utah, and Detroit swung a trade & a big extension to bring the mercurial Brandon Jennings over from Milwaukee. Plus, KCP's rookie season was underwhelming... UNTIL he lit up the Thunder for 30 pts, 6 boards, 2 steals & a block. Yes, it was the last game of the season, but Durant, Westbrook & Ibaka all played over 30 min, so it wasn't like KCP was torching some scrubs. He carried that success into Summer League, then into the preseason before spraining his knee. With KCP jumping from a come & go bench player into a starting role, all his numbers should increase. I think he could be a Paul George-type player, only with fewer rebounds and much higher 3P%. Expect 12-16 ppg this season, shooting something like .450/.400/.800 and playing pretty good D.

3 men, 2 positions. These 3 guys CANNOT all share the court at the same time. Drummond is a C and is basically tied to the paint on offense. Monroe is a C/PF, meaning he's really a C but can play PF if you need him to. Josh Smith is a PF and only a PF. Playing him on the wing is a mistake (his shooting outside of 3 ft gets bad QUICK, and I mean BAD). This frontcourt needs to get figured out. Ultimately, either Monroe or Smith have to go. They can't pay Smith $14M/yr (this is a TERRIBLE contract, by the way), re-sign Monroe for the max deal that he wants next year, AND lock up Drummond the following year. That is a LOT of money to spend on 3 players that play 2 positions. Too much. New coach/GM Stan Van Gundy is nobody's fool, so he's got to do 1 of 3 things: 1) trade Josh Smith, 2) trade Monroe before the trade deadline, or 3) ride the season out with both players and either sign & trade Monroe or let him go for nothing as an UFA. You never want to let a good player go for nothing, so look for SVG to make a move before the deadline. The Pistons are either trotting out Singler or Caron Butler at SF (neither of whom averaged better than 10 ppg last year and both played iffy D), so look for SVG to pop for a 3 & D wing.

 

 The man, the myth... Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons ushered in a new era by ushering out Joe Dumars & his revolving door of coaches. They ushered in a new GM, Stan Van Gundy, and a more stable coaching situation of... Stan Van Gundy. This is doubly good, because Van Gundy seems to understand building a roster better than Joe D did the last 6 years, and he's a better coach than Joe D was able to hire since Larry Brown. This is all to the good. Unfortunately, Dumars didn't leave SVG with much to work with. A mis-matched roster with some crappy contracts (Smith & Jennings), and no 1st round draft pick in a supposedly DEEP draft.

What did Van Gundy do? Used the 2nd round pick to get a a high risk/high reward guy and signed several pieces that actually make sense. The Pistons were one of the bottom 3PT shooting teams last year in both attempts and percent. Defenses could pack the paint on Detroit and very few Pistons could make them pay. More KCP (expect his 3P% to be about 50-100 points higher this season) and new acquisitions Jodie Meeks (.401%), Caron Butler (.394%), DJ Augustin (.401%), and Cartier Martin (.391%) will help in that area BIG TIME. The Pistons' 2nd round pick, Spencer Dinwiddie (great name), looks like a big combo guard who can score (shooting .515/.413/.857 thru 17 games his junior season). I'm not crazy about combo guards as starters, but Dinwiddie might turn into a legit PG (Van Gundy has a history of making that work) or else a scorer off the bench.

I wrote a breakdown on SVG & some other potential Pistons coaches back before Dumars eventually hired Cheeks. I think some of SVG's weaknesses go away because he's also the GM. Part of why things disintegrated in Miami & Orlando was because he didn't have enough clout. Now he does. He can draw up a pretty good defense and he's not bad on offense either.

If Van Gundy can pull off a trade for a legit SF and ship out either Smith or Monroe, this team could be a 4 seed in the East. If the Pistons go through the season with the personnel they have right now, they'll struggle to make the playoffs (7-8 seed or just out). This is the first year in a while where I don't feel like I'm talking myself into this. Sweet.