Don't Panic! Two games into the NBA season, 3 major players missing, and the Pistons are implementing a new system with new players. It's a rocky start (0-2 to 2 marginal teams), but not a surprising one. Shaq once called Stan Van Gundy a "master of panic" and he didn't mean it in a good way. I always thought that was unfair, and SVG has come a long way since he had to coach a garrulous Shaq, who was swiftly sliding into overpaid role-player land.
Why shouldn't we panic? There are 80 games left, that's why. Right now Marc Gasol is your scoring leader (wanna bet he keeps that title?), Brandon Knight is your assists leader (hang on, I have to go throw up), and LeBron James is Cleveland's WORST player. No, really.
So, yes, it's early and we shouldn't panic. Still, it's not too early to be concerned about a couple of things. There is an effort/chemistry problem, the offense is pretty ugly, and a conflict between SVG and Brandon Jennings is brewing. This was Stan Van Gundy's "comeback" lineup that managed to turn a potential blowout loss to Minnesota into a respectable loss to Minnesota: PG DJ Augustin (bench player), SG KCP, SF Caron Butler (bench player), PF Jonas Jerebko (bench player), C Joel Anthony (bench player). He subbed Josh Smith in for Jerebko and Drummond in for Anthony, but starting PG Brandon Jennings finished with only 16 minutes, and starting SF Kyle Singler finished with 24.
I know it's REALLY early, but Jennings is a joke at PG. He's a talented player, but he isn't stable enough to be a starter. He could be a Jamal Crawford-type 6th man, or a playmaker off the bench, but look at him - he can't shoot half the time, and he doesn't understand how to find his place in the offense (something I really wish Chauncey was around to explain to him). The PG is supposed to be the leader of the offense, not the guy picking up technical fouls while you're trying to dig yourself out of a hole.
After the Pistons lost their first game, Jennings was asked about his lack of minutes in that game. He expressed surprised at it, said "it is what it is," and finally, "I'm not the coach." This could be taken 1 of 3 ways - Jennings could be saying I'm just here to play, I accept whatever decisions the coach makes, he could be saying I don't understand why coach did what he did, but if it had been my decision, I'd have played more, or he could be saying the coach made that call, we lost, you do the math. In the 2nd game, SVG pulled Jennings after he picked up his tech in the 3rd and DJ Augustin finished the game. Afterwards, Van Gundy said the guys on the floor were hanging their heads and he swapped them out for 5 guys who were willing to play. Well, 4 guys. KCP stayed on. Van Gundy was quick not to point fingers at a particular player, but it's pretty clear Jennings isn't on his Christmas list.
Jennings is the type of player that drives coaches mad. So is Josh Smith. Since SVG is both coach AND President of Basketball Operations, I expect at least one of these guys to be gone before the year is over. I'm really hoping it's Jennings, since Smith is at least salvageable. SVG's other option is to try to work with Jennings and build up his confidence somehow. Maybe Jennings is struggling because of an achilles issue. Maybe he's just a bad fit. I don't know, he sounds kind of pouty to me.
Yeah, you guys are smiling now...
***
The only other thing I wanted to hit on today was MLB free agency. Sexy, I know. The Tigers need a semi-rebuild, mainly in the bullpen but also at some position spots. Let's review, and then see who's out there.
Nick Castellanos was the WORST 3B in baseball this past season, defensively speaking. His bat wasn't bad, but the Tigers have to stick him somewhere. He might be a LF (but then where does JD Martinez play?), they could stick him at 1B and move Cabrera to DH (but Castellanos has never played there before & Cabrera likes fielding), or they could move Castellanos to the DH spot (which is SUPER early for a player to be relegated to DH).
Victor Martinez is, sadly, probably gone. Nick Castellanos can't play 3rd, at least not full-time. Max Scherzer is gone. Victor is gone. SS Jose Iglesias is probably back, which helps, and Torii Hunter probably is back. Ideally, the Tigers get a 3B, a CF, a SP, 2 or 3 RPs, and bolster their bench. I'll take a look at a couple players at each spot, categorized as Swing for the Fences (expensive), Line Drive Base Hit (moderately priced), and Sac Bunt (cheap).
3B - Swing For the Fences: Hanley Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval. Hanley is the biggest name, he's about to turn 31, and he made $16M last year. He should go for less than that, but expect him to search out a 4-yr, $56M-type deal. He's on the decline (.283, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB), and his defense isn't great but still a vast improvement over Castellanos. Aramis Ramirez, if he isn't retiring, will start the 2015 season at the venerable age of 36. He fields his position acceptably well, hits ok (.285, 15 HR), and actually made the All Star team this year. The problem is, he's a bit over-priced. If he'd take a paycut from last year's $16M to, say, $12M to chase a title with Detroit, he might be worth it. Pablo Sandoval is younger (will start the season at 28), a pretty good fielder at 3B, and a solid hitter when his weight is under control. He could go anywhere from $9M-$12M/yr for 4-6 years.
3B - Line Drive Base Hit: Chase Headley. Chase Headley was the top defending 3B last year, but he brings less of a stick than Hanley (batted .262 with 6 HR in roughly 1/3 of a season). He also is nearing his 31st birthday but should come a little cheaper at $7-$10M/yr.
3B - Sac Bunt: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Kelly Johnson, Alberto Callaspo. It's been a while since Kouzmanoff played a full season, but he's been a decent hitter/fielder in the past. If the Tigers can tie in some games-played incentives into his contract, he might be worth $1-$4M/yr. Kelly Johnson bounced around a lot this season. He's got a good glove at 3rd, not so much bat. At 33 yrs-old he might take a 2-yr, $5M deal. Callaspo is basically a replacement-level player. I'm not sure his mediocre defense and non-existent offense would get him the nudge over Castellanos at 3rd.
CF - Swing For the Fences: Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is the cream of a VERY small crop this year (Denard Span would've topped Rasmus, only he was re-signed by Washington). He's had a number of injury issues in his career and doesn't hit for average, but Rasmus is a great fielding CF and hits for power. If he's healthy, he'd be an upgrade over Austin Jackson. At 27 he should be entering his prime, looking for a $8-$10M/yr deal.
CF - Line Drive Base Hit: Bueller? ... Bueller? ... Bueller? ... ...
CF - Sac Bunt: Nyjer Morgan, Tony Gwynn, Emilio Bonifacio. Nyjer Morgan is actually not a bad option here, if the Tigers don't want to trade or shell out for Rasmus. He hit well, stole some bases, he's a good defensive CF, and Cleveland sent him down as soon as Michael Bourn got healthy. Gwynn & Bonifacio are essentially both replacement level players, maybe a shade better, and any of these guys could be had for $2M or less.
SP - Swing For the Fences... actually, that's a bad metaphor for going after FA pitching...
SP - Heat Up the Radar Gun: (that's better) Johnny Cueto, James Shields, Jon Lester. Scherzer might be the biggest name out there, but give me Cueto over him. Cueto finished with a 20-9 record, 243 INN, 242 Ks, a 2.25 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP (Scherzer's numbers? 18-5, 220 INN, 252 Ks, 3.15 ERA & 1.175 WHIP). Cueto is a year & a half younger, and probably looking for a $12-$14M salary vs. Scherzer's sought after $20M paycheck (Cinci exercised their option on Cueto, so he's off the market. Dang.). We know Big Game James. He's comparable to Scherzer in everything but Ks, he's a couple years older and he'll command less money. Lester is in the same boat as Shields only he & Scherzer are the same age.
SP - Forget the Gun, Keep 'Em Guessing: Hiroki Kuroda, Josh Johnson, Jason Hammel. Kuroda's been steadily getting it done for the Yankees for the last 3 years, and with the Dodgers the 4 years prior to that. On the flip, Kuroda turns 40 before the 2015 season starts. He might be an expensive 1-yr option, or he might be a slightly less expensive 2- to 3-yr option. Josh Johnson would be a bit of a risk. He was a great NL pitcher, then he came to Toronto and pitched poorly. He had reconstructive surgery on his elbow and didn't pitch last year. The Tigers might take a flyer on him & offer $5M-$6M/yr. Hammel didn't pitch as well in Oakland as he did in Chicago, but he's still pretty good. He's 32 and probably worth $6M-$7M/yr.
SP - Forget the Gun, Get a Sun Dial: Edinson Volquez, Kyle Kendrick, Brandon McCarthy. Volquez was a high ERA guy in the NL, so that doesn't bode well for an AL campaign. Still, I like him. 2014 was his best season since he made the AS game in 2008 and I HATE paying for career years, but as long as Dombrowski can get him for something lie $4M-$5M/yr, I'll take it. Kendrick got good money to be an average pitcher the past 2 years. He should take a pay cut and fall in that $4M/yr category. McCarthy might be starting to capitalize on the promise he showed earlier in his career with Texas. His last contract was really back-loaded but averaged about $5M/yr. If Detroit can get him for something like that, he'd be worth it.
RP - Heat Up the Radar Gun: David Robertson. Robertson was one of the better closers in the AL this past year, logging 39 saves (converting 88.6% of his chances), striking out over 13 batters per 9 INN, and finishing with a pretty good (not great) WHIP & ERA. The problem? Detroit needs more than 1 arm in their 'pen, and closers are expensive.
RP - Forget the Gun, Keep 'Em Guessing: Sergio Romo, Andrew Miller, Luke Hochevar, Jason Grilli. Romo and Grilli were part time closers and could take the job without commanding a $10M salary like Soriano or Robertson could. Miller & Hochevar are both starters converted into relievers that get Ks in bunches and are pretty tight-fisted when it comes to allowing baserunners or runs. Any of these guys would take something in the $4M-$6M range.
RP - Forget the Gun, Get a Sun Dial: Joakim Soria, Tom Gorzelanny, Zach Duke. Soria, we know. He's better than he showed in the playoffs, and you'd think he owes the Tigers for his 8th inning mistakes (so does Joba, but he's not able to pay us back). Gorzelanny has been used as a starter but is better as a reliever. Duke sounds like a good RP's name. He moved to the 'pen a few years ago and has been up and down, but last year was good. These guys all fall into the $1M-$3M range, if everybody's reasonable.
MISC/BENCH - Swing For the Fences: Ben Zobrist, Nori Aoki. Not for the bench, but wherever Detroit can plug him in. Zobrist plays solid defense all over the infield and outfield. You wouldn't want him at C, but he provides a decent bat and solid glove everywhere else on the field. Aoki would have to be a starter at RF, maybe take over for Torii Hunter if he retires.
MISC/BENCH - Line Drive Base Hit: Mark Reynolds, Ryan Ludwick. Reynolds is a pretty bad fielder, doesn't hit for average, but he can get you a HR when you need it. Not sure he's worth the $ just to have him get 300 ABs or whatever. Ludwick would be decent Torii Hunter insurance, or a solid 4th OF mix up with whoever ends up playing here next season. After hitting .244 with 9 HR, he shouldn't be looking for a payday.
MISC/BENCH - Sac Bunt: Who knows... I'll get back to you on this one. MLB needs to do a better job of generating off-season interest in their sport, like posting an actual Free Agent Tracker, like the NFL & NBA do.
Sorry, the clock ran out on me. More on this later, maybe closer to the winter meetings.
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