Michigan Men

The 3 running story lines right now in sports in this state are FIRE BRADY HOKE! FIRE BRANDON!, the Tigers happen to be in the playoffs with a 4th consecutive division title, and Matt Stafford looks like a much better QB this year. In order:

This whole Hoke-thing needs some perspective. Brady Hoke screwed up. However, as a million people have pointed out already, this would be 1,000 times less of a deal if Michigan were 5-0 or 4-1 right now instead of 2-3. The Morris Incident (which has swelled to the point where I'm capitalizing it, giving it the definite article, and referring to it like it was a morality play starring Henry Fonda), while showing deplorable regard for player safety, wasn't an offense bad enough for Hoke to be fired over. It's not even Exhibit A in the case to fire Hoke (mgoblog lists it as the 3rd thing currently driving fans away). But it is evidence of a larger problem, like how seeing 1 cockroach indicates a rampant infestation, or a more common cliche that is escaping me right now.

Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks Hoke's headset phobia contributed to his failure in The Morris Incident. This is hardly surprising, because this is an obvious conclusion for everybody except Brady Hoke, who still plans on "coaching" sans headset. In David Brandon's 1 AM press release yesterday, he made several references to "communication problems", which could be a thinly veiled jab at Hoke's preference not to wear the headset.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was a shot at Hoke, since everything Brandon did seemed designed to undercut Hoke. The real problem is that Hoke continues to coach as though he were still a defensive line coach.

Rich Rodriguez compared the ire during his stint as the HC at Michigan vs. the current unrest with Hoke and said a couple of things that I actually agree with. First, the current problems are very different from the problems during the Rich Rod era. Second, the whole "Michigan Man" thing is a myth. Here's where we digress:

1. Rich Rod would like to act like he was a victim of circumstance. No, he just had a whole series of flaws that made him just as unqualified for the job as Hoke is. They're just different flaws (for the most part). He alienated his local recruiting base, he was notoriously system-oriented to a fault, and he was a slime ball. Hoke is out of depth as a big program HC, doesn't game-plan well or effectively utilize the talent on the roster (hey, that's actually pretty similar to Rich Rod!), and he's an oblivious idiot.
2. I agree that there's a misconception that you have to be a "Michigan Man" to succeed as head coach here. However, it's important that if the guy hired to be the Michigan HC has no Michigan connections, he tries to become a "Michigan Man" upon arrival. This is the main difference between Bo Schembechler's version of "not a Michigan Man" and Rich Rod's. Rodriguez didn't establish good relationships with the local high school coaches, and the culture he established fell well below the standard carried by Schembechler and Lloyd Carr (remember, Rich Rod is a slimeball).

Speculation has already started on who would be the best fit to replace Hoke, but a question of who will be doing the hiring remains. AD David Brandon is a 95% shot to be fired between now and Christmas. This is probably the only thing keeping Brady Hoke in his job, since a mid-season firing followed by a poor finish to the season would be viewed as 100% David Brandon's fault. Looking at who Brandon could/should have hired instead of Rich Rod & Hoke is a lot like talking about who Joe Dumars could have drafted instead of Darko. This the black arrow in the quiver of those who want Brandon gone NOW. One notable name that Brandon passed over in favor of Hokemania is Kevin Sumlin. Whoops.

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Now that the Royals have squeaked past the A's in the AL Wild Card game, eyes have turned to the rest of the AL playoffs. Tim Kurkjian has less faith in the Tigers than I do, but despite Detroit's penchant for offensive no-showing vs. junkball pitchers, I still think they get by Baltimore. The Orioles' defense is less good without Machado playing at 3rd, their offense is less good without Weiters, Chris Davis, and Machado, and Cabrera & Verlander seem more like their old selves than they have all year.

Miggy's focused, I like their odds.

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Matt Stafford is experiencing a minor renaissance. He's still among the league leaders in passing yards, that hasn't changed, but it's the way he's getting those video game stats that is so impressive. His QB rating is barely above average, but QB rating tells only half the story (any system that rates Brian Hoyer & Austin Davis over Stafford is flawed). QBR (or total QB rating) takes into consideration mobility, the contributions of teammates on a given play, clutch plays, and so on. By QBR, Stafford is the 8th rated NFL quarterback through the first 4 games. That's more like it.

The most notable change in Stafford's QBR is his Run EPA (estimated points added when he runs it). Last year Stafford registered a Run EPA of -1.5. This year he's posting a 0.8 through 4 games, which extrapolates out to 3.2 for a season. For reference, a running QB would post a number between 10-20, a guys who uses his feet well might get anywhere from 3-7, and the worst guy in the league last year (Carson Palmer) posted a -2.2. Basically Stafford went from a D runner to a C+.

His Pass EPA is much improved also, putting him #2 in that category instead of middle of the pack. The one area that's down this year is Sack EPA, which as we all know is a result of a worse offensive line. That should straighten itself out, with LaAdrian Waddle coming back this week. That RT spot has been rough since week 1.