Friday, January 18, 2013

Michigan wins in Minneapolis, Pistons... not so much

Lots of things happened in the sports world yesterday, but it is imperative I open with this:

Glad to see Michigan didn't have a hangover from the OSU loss. Trey Burke didn't have his best game, Hardaway turned it over 6 times, and Minnesota beat them all pretty badly on the glass, but U-M persevered. Burke doesn't need to shoot well to impact the game (9 assists, 1 turn over), Hardaway shot EXTREMELY well (7-8 from the field, 4-5 from distance), and GR3 had one monster 360. This is a fun team to watch.

The Pistons on the other hand...

Well, they're less fun to watch. They lost to the Knicks 102-87 after falling way behind in the first half. Drummond and Bynum were the only 2 who looked legit (other than Monroe in the 3rd). Really, the less said about that game the better.

So I'm going to transition over to an advanced stats discussion. This has been discussed ad nauseum on other sites, but I think it's worth going over more carefully. Here's an overview of everyone on the team ranked by Win Shares (stats captured from http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DET/2013.html):











Drummond dominates advanced stats. His PER (Player Efficiency Rating, see Hollinger, John) is highest on the team and 14th overall in the NBA. PER tends to over-value bench players who rebound really well & mainly dunk, (JaVale McGee has a 21.58 PER, 18th overall), so I'd expect that number to drop some if/when Lawrence Frank starts playing Drummond 30+ minutes a game & runs a few set plays for him.

Still, the numbers are VERY impressive. Here's a close up the shooting & rebounding numbers:

Drummond rebounds at an INSANE rate, surpassed only by Reggie Evans, Anderson Varejao, Kevin Love, and JJ Hickson. The TRB% measures the percentage of rebounds available that player actually rebounded. Monroe is no slouch here, but Drummond is a beast. Drummond's TS% (true shooting percentage) takes a hit because he's such an atrocious free-throw shooter, but he's still got a significant edge on Monroe there too. Here's the rest of the advanced stats:

Again, Drummond dominates most of these categories, doing especially well in BLK% (an estimated percent of opponents' shots the player blocked), DRtg (estimated points allowed per 100 possessions). His WS/48 is almost double the next guy's, and believe me I'm not trying to pick on Monroe. 

I think Drummond is ready for more. The guy is averaging less than 20 minutes a game. We're nearing the mid-way point of the season, I think it's time to start giving Drummond 30+ minutes a game. I'm not mad that they're bringing him along slowly, but enough is enough. He's getting a lot of love from sports writers all over, he's in the ROY conversation, but there are 12 other rookies getting more minutes. 

At the very least the team would be more watchable. Right?



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