Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Looking ahead to NBA Free Agency

Since nothing much was going on in Detroit sports last night, I took a look at the numbers and the Pistons have potentially a lot of money coming off the books this summer. Here's a list from hoopshype (player option/team option/qualifying offer):
By my calculations that's over $25 million coming off the books, $33.5 if they decide to amnesty Charlie V (or if he decides not to exercise his player option, which would be REALLY dumb on his part). Now here are the top free agents, along with a rough estimate of what it would take to sign them (here's the full list, by position & previous salary):
  Chris Paul - +$20 million
  Dwight Howard - +$20 million
  Andrew Bynum - $18 million
  Al Jefferson - $17 million
  Josh Smith - $14 million
  Kevin Martin - +$12 million
  Jose Calderon - $12 million
  David West - $10 million

There's a few other interesting guys out there that could be had for less (like Matt Barnes, J.J. Redick, Corey Brewer, J.J. Hickson, etc.), but I think with over $30 mil, the Pistons should take a shot at one of the big guys. Chris Paul would be ideal, but that's probably not happening. Howard, Andrew Bynum, Jefferson and Smith don't make sense if the plan is to build with Monroe and Drummond in the front court. That leaves Kevin Martin, Calderon and West. I really like Martin, I think the Pistons should go for him first and if that doesn't work out, then a Calderon/West combo (if West is willing to run some at the SF spot).

Ideally the Pistons get Martin for around $12-$14 million a year, pick up a solid wing defender like Brewer or Barnes for about $4-5 million and re-up with Will Bynum for $4 million with enough left over to pick up a bench PF like Hickson, Earl Clark, or re-up with Maxiell. That makes a starting 5 of Knight, Martin, Prince/Brewer, Monroe and Drummond with a bench of Bynum, Stuckey, Brewer/Prince, Daye/free agent PF TBD, and Kravtsov. The bench is a little weak, but that looks like a playoff team to me.

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