Personal sports update & NBA mocks...

How about a little personal sports update before getting to the nitty gritty? I may have mentioned before that I was playing in a soccer tournament the weekend before last. Well, it didn't go so great. We made the semis but lost there 4-0. I played okay all weekend. Made some mistakes, but only one was costly. I made several good plays too, but I've been thinking about getting into a soccer club or playing on a regular basis. I'd like to get good enough to play center back, but I need more reps. I played a little there in our last game, but I don't always know where the play is going and I don't always get a good read on the ball.

I played a decent amount. I played the entire first game, then our captain switched up our alignment & I was the odd man out, so I missed the second game. I played in about a third of the 3rd game and 3/4 of the last game. Like I said, I played a little center back (I ended up having a decent amount of energy despite being the oldest guy on the field at the time), but mainly right fullback. 

Last weekend I went on my longest run ever. I was still a little tight from soccer the previous weekend (my right hamstring clenched up on me in the last game), so my goal was to average a 9 min mile pace. I finished 10 miles in 1:35:55, which is a little over a 9:30 pace. I was on trace for a while, but my legs died in the final 2 miles. Yesterday I spent a little more time stretching & managed 4 miles in 33:49, which is just under 8:30 pace. I saw a tortoise & a hare on my run (not sure what that signifies). My long run this weekend is 8 miles, and I'd like to hold an 8:30 pace this time.

On to the professional sports scene...

There have been umpteen NBA mock drafts by now, and the Pistons have picked just about 6 different players. There's hardly a consensus in this draft. SI has them currently taking Michael Carter-Williams, a 6'6" PG from Syracuse who can't shoot and turns it over a TON. Chad Ford most recently has them taking Trey Burke. Now that's more like it.

For a while Burke has been considered one of the top 6 talents in the draft. As so often happens, values have shifted around based on different teams' needs and projections of upside. So how does Burke end up slipping to Detroit? Well, it starts with Orlando taking Oladipo. Ford thinks they'll trade for a PG, so Burke would be a luxury at that point. The next piece to fall is New Orleans, who he has taking Alex Len. The Pelicans had a decent PG last year in Greivis Vasquez, but the word is they aren't satisfied with him. Ford thinks they'll try to make Austin Rivers into their starting PG (WHAT???) and draft a big to pair with Anthony Davis. The final piece is Sacramento. They also have a PG in Isaiah Thomas (not Isiah, don't get giddy), but he's only OK at best. Still, for some reason he has them taking MCW over Burke.

I'd love to get Burke. He'd be about 4th or 5th on my list out of all the players in the draft. I've thought for a while now that he could slip to the Pistons at #8, so keep your fingers crossed.

San Antonio blew it last night. I don't know how they win game 7 after choking like that. There were several times I thought they were going to put the game away and Miami came back like mad. 

I've heard this tune before...

Finally the Pistons' coaching search is over, with Maurice Cheeks winning the job over several more intriguing candidates. Why don't I like this hire? Well, Cheeks has been the epitome of mediocrity as a head coach. He's never won a playoff series, been fired mid-season twice, and missed the playoffs 5 out of 8 seasons (counting the 2 when he was fired before the end of the year). Add to that the fact that he hasn't been working under a great coaching mind (Scottie Brooks got severely out-coached by Lionel Hollins, who was in turn SPANKED by Greg Popovich), and there isn't a lot of hope for more than mediocre results.

I got the feeling that Dumars was pretty locked into hiring a former player, which is stupid, but fits how he's ran things so far. After LB skipped town, Dumars wanted someone who would be more compliant and more offensively minded, so he hired Flip Saunders. After Saunders lost the locker room, Dumars wanted someone the players would respect, so he hired Michael Curry. After Curry made EVERY rookie coaching mistake possible, Dumars wanted someone with more X's and O's knowledge so he hired Kuester. After Kuester beefed with nearly EVERYONE on the team, Dumars wanted someone with head coaching experience and hired Lawrence Frank (although he would have preferred Mike Woodson). With Frank struggling to connect with the players, Dumars decided he wanted a coach with head coaching experience AND playing experience (Villanueva said several times he had problems respecting Frank because he "never played the game". The lesson here is DON'T BASE YOUR HIRE ON WHAT CHARLIE V SAYS).

The top 5 coaches in the league right now are probably Greg Popovich, Rick Carlisle, Tom Thibodeau, George Karl (whenever he gets a new job), and Doc Rivers. Guys threatening to climb the ladder: Kevin McHale (did wonders in Houston), Monty Williams (nothing to work with), Mike Budenholzer (wait & see), Frank Vogel, and Mark Jackson.  Of that top 5 group, Pop and Thibodeau never played NBA ball, and Carlisle and Karl were only minor bench players. Of the second group, Budenholzer and Vogel never played NBA ball, and Monty Williams was a career bench guy. Out of both groups, Popovich, Thibodeau, Monty Williams, Budenholzer and Vogel all had zero NBA head coaching experience before coming into their current jobs.

A good coach can be a former player, a scout, a GM, an assistant coach, or a guy that was fired from his previous HC job. Dumars seems to have centered his preferences within non-essential parameters like "has HC experience" and "is a former player" instead of going outside the box. Mike Budenholzer would have been outside the box for Joe D, and Zelly Obradovich would've been even more so. Instead we get a hire that reminds me of the past 3 HC hires - listless and uninspired.

I'm not optimistic (obviously) that this will work out, but allow me to spend a paragraph rebutting myself. It's possible that Cheeks has gotten a bit of a bad rap. That Trailblazers team was difficult to work with, and the 76ers were constantly a team in transition while he was at the helm. Detroit is almost a tabula rasa, and that could be a good thing for Cheeks. Some coaches prefer to go into a situation practically tailor-made for their style, others prefer to mold the team themselves. Mo Cheeks might be one of the latter types. The best coaching he ever did was with the 2007-'08 76ers, which had the youngest roster in the league.  Making odds up on the spot, I'd say Cheeks has a 10-15% shot at finding the magic here.

Stay Tuned for Game 7...

Reasons why I think the Heat will win tonight:

1. Birdman is back. The Heat missed him last game, and with their secondary players (not LeBron) struggling to score, they need Chris Andersen. Sad.
2. LeBron's supporting cast will play better. In the last game, LeBron made 10 shots and the rest of the team made 16. Either Allen or Battier will start making shots, or Wade will come back to life.
3. The TV ratings for a Pacers-Spurs Finals matchup would be quite low. Remember how everyone complained about the Pistons-Spurs in 2005 (well, everyone outside of Michigan and Texas)? This would be worse. And it's a shame, because the Pacers are a REALLY good team. Expect a fair few questionable fouls called if Indiana has a late edge. Remember this?

Reasons why Indian might win:

1. Dwyane Wade is DONE. He's shooting .403/.333/.739 the last 5 games, averaging 13, 4 & 5. Bosh looks DONE. Worse than Wade, he's shooting .378/.538/.833, averaging 10 & 4 the last 5 games. WHAT?
2. Indiana isn't scared of Miami, and they aren't scared of playing there. Really this series should be over already with Indiana getting ready for San Antonio, but Miami stole game 1 with that crazy layup by LeBron in OT.
3. The NBA is no longer able to pull a snow-job like they did in the 2002 WCF with the Lakers and the Kings. Everyone was suspicious at the time, but the Donaghey thing woke everyone up.

I think this goes to Miami, that LeBron gets a little help from his friends and a little from the refs. Not '02 WCF Game 6 help, but maybe '06 Finals Beno Salvatore help.

The Search for Coach

Not much going on in the Detroit Sports Scene right now. The Tigers are locked in a tight division race with Cleveland, but it's still early. The Wings lamentably were knocked out of the playoffs after being up 3 games to 1. The Lions are still patching together a team...

Which brings us to the Pistons. They're still mired in the search for their next coach. At this point I'm a little embarassed for them. Budenholzer (my favorite candidate for the job) was offered a job with Atlanta & took it. I'm not sure if he would've picked Detroit over Atlanta had Dumars extended an offer, but we'll never know now. Larry Drew (another name to pop up) took a job with the Bucks. Brian Shaw still can't meet with teams yet (his team is still alive vs. Miami), but he's one of the 2 favorites to win the Clippers' job.

That leave us with 3 main candidates:

• Nate McMillan - He's been one of the top guys available since the process started. He's not a sexy hire, but he's a solid coach.
• Maurice Cheeks - Joe D likes him, and it's probably close to even between him and McMillan. Cheeks is a mediocre coach, but he WOULD be a step up from Frank. Barely.
• Lionel Hollins - He looks very similar in style to McMillan. Got severely out-coached in the playoffs by Popovich, much like McMillan going against Rick Adelman. He wants to stay in Memphis, but Dumars should at least give him a look

Today began week 1 of my 20 week marathon training program. After playing 2 hours of basketball on Saturday and 2 1/2 hours of soccer on Sunday, I wasn't really feeling up to it. Still, I got up, limped out the door and ground out 3 miles in 26:38, which isn't great for me, but I wasn't feeling great. Actually, I felt good about doing as well as I did.

After my shower, I weighed myself and my jaw about dropped. I haven't weighed under 200 lbs since my senior year of high school. I was a muscular 195-220 lbs that year. Well, now I'm a slightly less-muscular 195. I'd like to pack on a little more muscle, but overall I'm pretty happy right there.

I should say a little about soccer too. I'm playing in a 2-day tournament this weekend and have gotten out exactly twice to kick a ball around. Yesterday was really the only actual practice I've had in a year, so I still feel a bit rusty. I got pretty tired in the 2nd half of our scrimmage, but hopefully that was a product of playing a ton of basketball on Saturday and not me just being old.

A Temporal Back-Track to catch us up...

***Once again, travel back in time to Friday, when I started writing this. Read from the perspective of one writing in a temporal cul-de-sac, back when the Wings had a 2 game lead on Chicago and were one win away from the Western Conference Finals***

The Wings went up 3 games to 1 last night against Chicago. Unbelievable game. Both goalies stood on their heads. I thought it was a very even game, great scoring chances for both teams. Chicago ended up hitting the post twice, Detroit got a power play goal and an empty netter. That was the difference. 

***Ok, back to the current timeline in which the situation is less happy***

So what do you do with a team that fell behind expectations by barely making the playoffs, exceeded expectations by beating a VERY tough Anaheim team, didn't live up to expectations in game 1 vs. Chicago, once again exceeded expectations in games 2-4, but ultimately failed to meet expectations by losing the next 3 games and the series?

I missed the last couple of games due to a combination of camping over the holiday weekend and the games being broadcast over NBCSN, which I don't get. Based on what I DID see of game 7, the 'Hawks had more chances, skated better & deserved to win. Jimmy Howard stood on his head & was the better goaltender in a well tended series (for the most part), but the Wings' youth undid them.

What's the prognosis? Well, better than it was last summer. Brunner was great, I'd like them to re-sign him. The other young guys are still under contract and show lots of promise. Remember, DeKeyser was one of Detroit's better defensemen before he got knocked out of the playoffs in the Anaheim series. Abdelkader and Nyquist both looked great, and hopefully they'll be getting Darren Helm back (which will be HUGE).

On the Pistons front, somehow they haven't hired a coach yet. This is surprising, since Dumars wanted to have this done before the combine (which was almost 2 weeks ago). There are two likely explanations: 1) He didn't think the Pacers would still be alive at this point & thought he'd already have interviewed Brian Shaw, or 2) Dumars is in a power battle with Gores and Phil Jackson and is trying to keep his job while also getting HIS choice for coach instead of THEIR choice.

I really hope it's the first explanation. There's only one possible good outcome (semi-good anyway) of the second explanation (Phil takes a front office job as well as Head Coach & brings in Shaw to be his eventual replacement) and several disasterous outcomes (the franchise hits the reset button, Dumars & Gores remain entangled in a power battle all year, etc.).

Good news on the NBA Draft front, however. Shabazz Muhammad is starting to grow on me, and not in a bad, fungal sort of way. ESPN's Chad Ford wrote a piece on Muhammad's potential, and it was pretty encouraging. My main concerns with Muhammad were that he's basically a one-dimensional player and that dimension (scoring) might not translate well to the NBA. If you don't have an Insider account, here are the Cliff's Notes:

• Muhammad was at the P3 Center to test his physical movements & get his game more NBA-ready
• Despite having only a slightly above average vertical, he gets up QUICK. So while he doesn’t jump out of the gym, he’s pretty explosive
• That explosiveness hasn’t translated to his lateral movement yet, but they’re working on it
• Right now he tests as an average athlete for a wing, but he has the physical tools to be above average (but not elite)
• His shot mechanics are bad but look correctable. This is probably why his shot was so streaky
• In addition to working on his mechanics, they created a series of drills based off of moves James Harden uses to get his shot off

Three things jumped out at me - his potentially getting some lateral explosiveness (which would improve his D and ability to blow by defenders), correcting his shot mechanics, and developing some James Harden moves. If he can even be 2011 James Harden (good D, a VERY efficient 17 pts off the bench), I'd take that in a heartbeat. I think Harden is a good player for Muhammad to emulate. Similar height & build, similar athleticism... Harden was a better and more willing passer, and he shot a bit better than Muhammad did.

At this point if the top 6 prospects (Noel, McLemore, Porter, Oladipo, Burke, and Bennett) are taken when Detroit drafts at #8, I'm getting more comfortable with the idea of taking Muhammad. I probably still wouldn't take him over Bennett, Burke or Oladipo, but he might end up being the better player. Time will tell.

Surprisingly there's a fair bit of Lions' news as well. In the "Titus Young Needs Jesus" Saga, apparently the NFL reached out to him before his three arrests in an attempt to get him some help. Titus said no. It was good to hear that they tried (the NFL has notoriously dropped the ball in the past with player mental health issues), but sadly this was a lesson Titus has to learn the hard way (or not at all).

The Titus Young news reminds that WR is somehow still a need for these Lions, but one that Nate Burleson thinks they've got under control. Patrick Edwards didn't play last year due to in consistent hands and later a hamstring injury. He's playing now & might make the roster as a #3 or #4 WR. The Lions signed a Pro Bowl special teamer (one of their BIG areas of weakness last year). Kevin Seifert thinks Lions rookie DE Ziggy Ansah can get at least 10 sacks this fall, something that's only been done by a rookie 31 times in the 31 years that they've tracked sacks. If any DE in this rookie class is going to do it, Ansah is the most likely. The main concern with this team is still the OL, which is still TBD at RT and RG.

Miguel Cabrera got high praise from one of baseballs most talented and arrogant former players. Unfortunately the Tigers haven't been playing that well, and lost their last 3 games. They're in a bit of a swoon this month due to some poor starting pitching, Verlander being the worst of the lot. Hitting-wise, Cabrera's still phenomenal but getting little help from the rest of the pack. Cabrera has hit 11 HR in May (that's a TON), but the rest of the team combined for only 20 more, which is about 10 below league average (not good). Apparently Nick Castellanos is ready for a call-up, but the question would be where to put him. He's a natural SS and also plays third well, but Cabrera is the team's best player & Peralta is one of the few guys hitting well. He'll probably end up in the OF, but when that will be, no one knows.

Wings Edge 'Hawks, Pistons Lotto-screwed

*I started writing this post yesterday & didn't finish until this morning, so expect a double-shot posting today. Keep in mind the contents below were written without the knowledge of the results of Wings-'Hawks game 4...

The Red Wings surprised me. I didn't think they'd ever have the lead in this series, especially not after game 1. They didn't look like they belonged on the ice, lost basically every battle and looked like they were on the penalty kill all game. It sucks, but I pretty much agreed with this guy. Which goes to show you can't base your opinion of a series on the first game.

Howard has been outstanding though, and looks to be winning the goalie battle. He's made some spectacular stops and his counterpart, Crawford, has let in a couple soft goals. Game 2 was pretty good, although I thought the Wings were going to blow it in the 3rd like they had several times already. Instead they ran away with it.

I missed game 3 but caught the highlights the next day. Once again the Wings out-skated the 'hawks, stoning them on one end and making the most of their chances on the other.

Once again the Pistons got hosed in the draft lottery. Slotted in at #7 (and a 3.6% shot at the #1 pick) after winning the coin-toss against Washington, they ended up at #8 when Washington won the 3rd pick (again). The Wizards of Washington are a perennial lottery participant, picking 3rd in 2012, 6th in 2011, 1st in 2010, and would've been 5th in 2009 (traded the pick). The Pistons picked 9th in 2012 (with a 25-43 record to Washington's 20-46), 8th in 2011 (30-52 to Washington's 23-59), and 7th in 2010 (27-55 to Washington's 26-56). This year they finished with the same record, but Detroit picks 8th and Washington picks 3rd. 

The Pistons have been hosed by some bad luck, along with a refusal to tank in which they were (nearly) alone. Over the past 4 years the Pistons' record in the last 10 games of the season is .450, about .100 higher than their regular season record. That's pretty significant.  Playing at that level over 82 games would've gotten them into the playoffs at least once.

Tanking has been a problem for a long time, and teams like Detroit get penalized for doing it, while notorious tank jobs from teams like Charlotte, Cleveland and Golden State have been rewarded. I'm getting on the bandwagon with Bill Simmons for his proposal of the "entertaining as hell tournament". Basically the bottom 18 teams do a March Madness-style tournament for the 7 & 8 seeds in the playoffs, and the losers all have a 1 in 14 shot at the top 3 picks. I'm in.

Wings go to Chicago

Work's been busy, so I haven't posted in a couple days. Allow me to catch up a little.

I ended up watching the Wings OT win in game 6 with my dad, still not having much hope of taking game 7 in Anaheim. This is a fun & frustrating Wings team. They had one goal where Wings' defenseman Brendan Smith skated into a ricochet and accidentally knocked in the Ducks' first goal. The second goal is on Wings C Valteri Filpula, who was carrying the puck & blindly passed it behind his own net to Emerson Etem (plays for the other team).

These kinds of breakdowns in the defensive zone cannot happen if the Wings are going to have a chance against Chicago in this series. Repeat, CANNOT happen. Blackhawks G Corey Crawford is lights out & goals will be at a premium for the Wings. They can't afford to give up easy ones.

Regardless, the Wings found a way to win game 6. I missed game 7 because it started at 10pm and I get up around 5:30am for my morning run. Here are the highlights:

Nice shorthanded breakaway goal by Abdelkader. Ericsson watches a goal go in off his skate. The good and bad with this team.

Anyway, on to the Blackhawks. The Wings' traditional rivals, although there's less recent history with them than, say San Jose. Still, no time like the present, right? This will be the last conference post-season meeting between the 2 teams since Detroit is changing conferences next year. NHL.com broke down the matchups, but here are the Cliff Notes:

• Chicago features 2 all-world forwards in Toews and Kane, neither of which scored a goal in the last series. If they stay cold this series then Detroit probably wins, but that isn't likely
• Chicago has a solid group of defensemen that don't score a lot of points but do a good job of keeping the other team from scoring

I'd say the goalie spot is a wash. Crawford's stats are better, but so is his defense. Most of Howard's goals have come off defensive breakdowns. I don't watch enough hockey to say for certain whether Datsyuk and Zetterberg are better than Toews and Kane or not. If you factor in the fact that the Wings' Euro-Twins are probably the 2 best defensive forwards in hockey (and you should DEFINITELY factor that in), then it's pretty close to a wash. With Hossa & Sharp, Chicago has a great 2nd set of forwards. I think Abdelkader is the wildcard, in that if he can stay out of the penalty box, Chicago is in trouble. If he starts racking up power plays for the 'hawks, Detroit is done.

The NBA coaches voted on the All-Rookie 1st and 2nd teams... somehow Drummond didn't make the 1st team, despite being 4th in ROY voting. WHAT? The coaches apparently went to ESPN NBA stats, filtered by rookies and sorted by points per game, because that's how the order of the voting went. The top 5 scoring rookies made the 1st team, the next five made the 2nd team. Why are the coaches voting on this again? They maybe get 1 or 2 looks at each guy, and really have better things to do that study tape and figure out which 10 rookies are the best in which order.

Lions rookie camp was last weekend. Titus Young needs Jesus, and the Lions' 2011 draft class has been pretty bad so far.