The Van Gundy Effect

A lot of comparisons have been drawn from Stan Van Gundy's Pistons and his 2008-2010 Orlando teams, and rightfully so. Both groups are built around a young, up and coming center, defense, and taking a lot of threes. It's hard to separate Van Gundy's impact on those Orlando teams from Dwight Howard's emergence as the top center in basketball, and one of the top 5 players overall, so let's not try. Let's assume that to whatever degree Howard improved over those three years, Andre Drummond will improve at a similar rate from where he is now. What impact did SVG have on the Orlando Magic from 2008-2010, what impact did he have on the Pistons last year, and what can we expect in the future?

First, the Magic. SVG took over a team that made the playoffs the previous year and got swept by Detroit in round 1. In the first year under Van Gundy, they increase their win total by 12, their offense improved, they shot a LOT more threes, and they didn't foul quite so much. In year 2 they increase by another 7 wins, their defense improved a bit (it was already pretty good), and their offense was close to the same. In year 3, they were basically the same team with a slightly improved offense.

The Pre-Van Gundy Magic had a much higher jumping off point than the Pre-Van Gundy Pistons, and they added a much better player in Rashard Lewis than anyone Van Gundy has been able to acquire for the Pistons, although Reggie Jackson might come close. Also, Van Gundy hasn't been able to quickly compile the roster he wants because he's been dealing with the ginormous mess that Dumars left behind. So...

The SVG Pistons only improved on the previous year's win total by 3. That doesn't seem like a lot, but it goes deeper than that. The Expected W-L (which is a better way of determining how good a team is) was actually 7 wins higher than the previous year. I expect the Pistons to continue to improve on their win total, although this should continue to be a gradual rise. The thing that should really shoot up is the 3PAr - 3-point attempt rate. SVG's Magic teams were at the top of the league in this category. The Pistons moved from the bottom 3rd to the top third in this category, and swapping Monroe out for a stretch 4 in this offense should only help.


So the Pistons should shoot more threes, that was an easy one. The offense should flow better and the defense should look more cohesive, now that the pieces fit better. Van Gundy took a team that had some talent but didn't make any sense and has turned it into a team that has a bit less talent but makes a lot more sense. I haven't always agreed with the moves he's made, but he certainly is moving in a distinct direction. It might not translate into a lot of wins right off the bat, but to appropriate a Hinkie-ism and apply it to the exact opposite philosophy of rebuilding, "Trust the Process". Right now, I trust what SVG is building. Let's see what it produces.