Tim Thielke of PistonPowered.com posted an article asking readers to predict 20 statistical over/unders for the Pistons' 2015-'16 season. I thought it was fun, and some of the juxtapositions were provocative, so I'll post my predictions here so we can track them, along with some explanations.
Which will be higher?
- Andre Drummond’s rebounds per game or Andre Drummond’s points per game?
Points. Drummond's rpg are pretty close to maxed out, ppg should see a boost with Monroe gone. Plus, I think he's developing a lot more as an offensive player.
- Andre Drummond’s free throw percentage or Marcus Morris’ total starts?
Drummond's FT%. I think Morris gets between 30-40 starts, Drummond's FT% should be over 40%. Please let it be over 40%.
- Spencer Dinwiddie’s total minutes or Stanley Johnson’s total points?
Johnson's points. With Blake & Jennings, Dinwiddie doesn't get any burn. Even if Jennings gets traded, I think Dinwiddie spends most of the year in the D League.
- Reggie Jackson’s double-doubles or Pistons’ made free throws per game?
RJ's double-doubles. He had 15 last year playing part time most of the year, Pistons averaged 15.8 made FTs per game, and they didn't add anybody who'll raise that number significantly. This is a safe bet.
- Stan Van Gundy in-season player acquisitions or Andre Drummond’s blocks per game?
SVG's in-season acquisitions. SVG picked up 6 guys mid-season last year. Drummond will have to average over 3 bpg to have a shot.
- Combined games played by Danny Granger, Cartier Martin, Adonis Thomas, and Darrun Hilliard or Ersan Ilyasova’s total three pointers made?
Ilyasova's made 3s. These other guys will be cut, traded, or sent to the D league. EI makes at least 70 threes, probably closer to 100.
- Pistons’ longest winning streak or Aaron Bayne’s points per game?
Pistons' winning streak. This is really close because I think they're both around 8. Almost said "push".
- Jodie Meeks’ three point percentage or Spencer Dinwiddie’s field goal percentage?
Meeks' 3P%. This was nearly a push as well. I think they both end up close to .380, although less PT on Dinwiddie's end could skew the numbers.
- Brandon Jennings’ total games played or Joel Anthony’s free throw percentage?
Anthony's FT%. Mainly because I expect Jennings to get traded at some point.
- Steve Blake’s minutes per game or Reggie Jackson’s points per game?
RJ's ppg. Backup PGs usually get 20+ mpg, but if Jennings gets a lot of PT and doesn't get traded, Blake gets closer to 10-15 mpg.
- Reggie Bullock’s total DNP’s or Joel Anthony’s total field goal attempts?
Bullock's DNPs. Anthony took 62 shots last year. I doubt Bullock plays in 20 games.
- Kentavious Caldwell Pope’s three point percentage or Pistons’ total wins?
KCP's 3P%. He should shoot somewhere between .360% & .380%, Pistons likely finish with 35 or less.
- Marcus Morris’ total steals or Aaron Bayne’s free throw percentage?
Baynes' FT%. I don't think Morris plays enough to get 80 steals
- Brandon Jennings’ total starts or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s points per game?
KCP's ppg. Unless Jackson gets hurt, Jennings won't get 12 starts
- Pistons’ final seed or Stanley Johnson’s rebounds per 36 minutes?
Piston's final seed. If Johnson doesn't play much, this could get totally skewed by a small sample size. I'm betting the Pistons' seed will be between 9th & 12th, and Johnson's rebounds per 36min fall between 7 & 8.
- Number of Piston all-star berths this season or number of Piston playoff wins?
All Star berths. I think Drummond makes it in this year, possibly Jackson as well. If they even make the 8th seed, they get swept. This could very easily be a 0-0 push.
- Ersan Ilyasova’s points per game or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s points per game?
Ilyasova. I think he gets more of a bump in SVG's offense than KCP does. This was close as well. One of these guys will average close to 14ppg, the other closer to 12.
- Anthony Tolliver’s total rebounds or Andre Drummond’s total blocks?
Drummond's blocks. Tolliver plays fewer min, Drummond improves on D.
- Jodie Meeks’ total three pointers made or Marcus Morris’ total three pointers made?
Meeks. Unless he gets traded. If he sticks, I think he plays a bigger role in the offense.
- All Pistons’ combined triple-doubles or Stanley Johnson’s final Rookie of the Year rank?
Johnsons's ROY rank. The only Piston with a triple-double last year was Jackson with 2. He'll play more this year, but it's very rare to have more than 4 triple-doubles in a year. Russell Westbrook led the NBA with 11, but he's ridiculous. Harden was 2nd with 4. I'm betting the Pistons combine for 3 triple-doubles on the season and Johnson finishes 4th or lower in the ROY voting.
That was fun. The bets (no money involved) I'm least secure about are 7, 8, 10, 17, and 20. We'll check on these halfway through and again at the end of the season.
I've been obsessed with the idea of the Pistons pulling off a One Red Paperclip trade. Since Stan Van Gundy used this offseason to basically add a bunch of minimally significant, moveable parts, the idea struck me that some of these moves could be potential stepping stones to something greater. For those of you who don't know the One Red Paperclip story, a guy named Kyle MacDonald started with a red paperclip and made a series of trades, gaining a bit of value with every trade, until he ended up with a house.
I noticed in the Ersan Ilyasova trade that Stan gave up 2 guys he was going to cut anyway for a guy he could use, and in the trade that brought over Marcus Morris, Reggie Bullock, and Danny Granger, Stan gave up a future 2nd-round draft pick. Both trades were deals where the Pistons were giving up very little to almost nothing in order to gain useful players. The hidden cost on the Pistons' side is the loss of cap space which hinders their ability to sign good free agents, but for the sake of this post I'm looking at asset-for-asset moves and leaving cap space out of the picture.
Instead of trading a red paperclip for a house, we're trading 2nd-round picks and guys we want to waive for a championship roster. Is this possible? As sort of a test case, let's look at how Joe Dumars constructed the 2004 Championship team.
First, Joe D took over the team prior to the 2000-2001 NBA season. The year before, they went 42-40, made the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference, and lost to Miami in 4 games in the first round. The top contributors on that team were Grant Hill, Jerry Stackhouse, Lindsey Hunter, and Christian Laettner. He had a lot more to work with. If the team as constructed when SVG took over was the red paperclip, Joe D was starting with the Coleman Stove.
The first big move involved the Pistons' best player, but it was still kind of a "something for nothing" deal in that Grant Hill was leaving Detroit as a free agent. They managed to get a couple of players in return by swinging a sign & trade with Orlando. We all know how that worked out.
Grant Hill --> Orlando, spent multiple seasons on the DL before getting traded to PHO
Chucky Atkins --> Detroit, starting PG, then backup, then traded
Ben Wallace --> Detroit, starting C, won multiple DPOY, AS appearances, centerpiece for championship defense
Dumars was shipping lots of guys out. Lindsey Hunter was traded for Billy Owens (meh), but the next notable deal was the Laettner trade.
Christian Laettner --> Dallas, basically washed up, ended up in a trade package to WAS
Terry Mills --> Dallas, never played there, signed with IND and was totally washed up
Cedric Ceballos --> Detroit, washed up, dumped on MIA for a 2nd-rounder who was in turn traded for Zelly Rebraca
Eric Murdock --> Detroit, waived
John Wallace --> Detroit, mediocre backup who was then traded
A very key move was Dumars' deadline deal later that season.
Jerome Williams --> Toronto, mainly bench player, ended up traded to CHI
Eric Montross --> Toronto, backup C, retired after the following season
Corliss Williamson --> Detroit, 6th-man type post scorer several years including 2004
Kornel David --> Detroit, played in 10 games, did nothing
Tyrone Corbin --> Detroit, waived
Dumars wasn't the greatest drafter in round 1, but he did nail many of his 2nd round picks, getting Mehmet Okur with the 38th pick of the 2001 draft. The groundwork for the 2004 championship team and the Rasheed Wallace trade was laid at this point. How did Dumars expand on that in the '01-'02 season? He started by trading 2 2nd-rounders to Toronto for Zelly Rebraca, a capable backup C who ended up part of the Rasheed Wallace trade.
The next move was a classic example of a something-for-nothing trade that Dumars utilized to turn the Pistons from also rans into contenders.
John Wallace --> Phoenix, was next to useless at this point in his career
Jud Beuchler --> Phoenix, a 3PT specialist who did nothing else and was basically done
Cliff Robinson --> Detroit, starting PF for 2 yrs, capable stretch-4 and defender, traded
Dumars rounded out the roster moves of the '01-'02 season by picking up Jon Barry & a draft pick (who became Delfino) for Mateen Cleaves, and then drafted Tayshaun Prince with the 23rd overall pick. Looking to build off of the 50 wins of the previous season, Dumars used the mid-level exemption to sign Chauncey Billups and then followed that by making another key move that helped build the championship team.
Jerry Stackhouse --> Washington, played a couple of solid years before being traded
Brian Cardinal --> Washington, played 5 games & got waived, career backup elsewhere
Ratko Varda --> Washington, waived
Rip Hamilton --> Detroit, played here 9 seasons, usually leading the team in scoring
Hubert Davis --> Detroit, played 3 games, got waived
Bobby Simmons --> Detroit, waived
Stackhouse was Detroit's leading scorer, averaging NEARLY 30 ppg one season, but he seemed to disappear in the playoffs. Hamilton was possibly less talented a scorer, but he was more reliable and provided better spacing with his midrange game. Chauncey was famously a steal for the MLE. That Pistons team won 50 games again and made it to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 1991. Like the '91 ECF, they were swept. Clearly they needed one more piece to get over the hump, and owning the Grizzlies' #2 overall pick might have been that piece except Dumars drafted Darko.
Detroit needed one more big piece to be seriously considered a contender. They couldn't get past New Jersey, let alone match up with any of the Western Conference elite. That led to the deadline deal that became the linchpin of the Pistons' 2004 title contention: The Rasheed Wallace Trade. I'm including the sources of each player involved in the trade so you can more fully appreciate the moves that led up to it.
Chucky Atkins (acquired in Grant Hill S&T) --> Boston, started at PG for the final 3rd of the season for Boston before being traded to LA for, among other things, the Rondo pick
Lindsey Hunter (acquired in trade for Michael Curry) --> Boston, waived, re-signed with Detroit (he leaves but always seems to come back) and was a key sub on the title team
#25 pick in 2004 --> Boston, used to pick Tony Allen, a defensive BEAST
Zeljko Rebraca (acquired in trade for 2 2nd round picks in 2002) --> Atlanta, played in 3 games and signed elsewhere in the offseason
Bob Sura (acquired in trade for Cliff Robinson & Pepe Sanchez) --> Atlanta, got a LOT more burn than he did in Detroit, signed elsewhere in the offseason
#17 pick in 2004 (acquired in trade for Rodney White) --> Atlanta, used to pick Josh Smith, we all know how that turned out
Rasheed Wallace --> Detroit, provided another one-on-one scorer and floor spacer, and his elite man-defense in the post allowed Ben Wallace to be a free-range shot blocker. 'Sheed provided 2 1/2 quality years before his skills started to erode and his volatility got the better of him
Mike James --> Detroit, quality backup PG. When Chauncey Billups went down and the Pistons wanted to just SHUT DOWN the opponent completely, they'd take out Rip and bring in James to run with the rest of the starters, Lindsey Hunter starting for the injured Billups. James was out of Detroit the following year
To recap, here is a list of all the major players on the '04 team and the player(s) who were the source of their acquisition, with the degree of separation in parenthesis (only going back to the earliest source in the Dumars era, otherwise Corliss & Darko could be sourced back to a trade back in 1982). If a player was part of a previous trade that was already sourced, I won't bother putting the same info in twice.PG Chauncey Billups --> MLE (1)
SG Rip Hamilton --> Stackhouse, Cardinal, Varda (1)
SF Tayshaun Prince --> 2002 NBA Draft (1)
PF Rasheed Wallace --> Hill (2), Curry (2), '02 2nd rd picks (2), Laettner (5), White (2), '04 1st rd pick (1)
C Ben Wallace --> Hill (1)
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Okur --> 2001 NBA Draft (1)
Hunter --> Curry (1), then signed off waivers
Corliss --> Montross (1), Williams (1)
James --> same as 'Sheed
It's notable that of the top 9 players who got a ring, 2/3 of them were acquired by trade. Sometimes a something-for-nothing trade peters out and doesn't have any payoff in the long run. Other times, those tiny improvements can snowball into pulling off a 50 cents on the dollar hijacking like the Rasheed Wallace trade.
Right now SVG is gathering assets. He's already pulled off 2 something-for-nothing trades. Can he pull off a Red Paperclip deal? Will we be evaluating a deal some 2 or 3 years in the future and say, "you know, this all started with a 2020 2nd-rd pick"? We can only hope.
The Tigers went into trade deadline week having lost 2 series and split one since the All Star break. At somewhere between 4 & 5 games out of the Wild Card, the consensus was the team wasn't good enough to contend this year and needed to get younger. The Tigers haven't drafted all that well, and most of their better young talent has been used in trade to acquire immediate impact vets. With three of their top players - David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Joakim Soria - entering into free agency this winter, the Tigers opted to cash them in for whatever prospects they could get.
I followed the Price deal very closely, since Price is on my fantasy team and I lose him for nothing if he gets traded to the NL. Fortunately, the Tigers found a buyer in the AL and got what I thought was a VERY good deal. Dombrowski sent Price north to Toronto, getting 3 LHP prospects in return - Daniel Norris, Jairo Labourt, and Matt Boyd. Labourt and Boyd are middling prospects and may never turn out to be much, but Norris was a HUGE get. Keith Law had him ranked as the #18 prospect in all of baseball going into this year, and had this to say:
"On any given night, Norris can show you four average or better pitches, with a plus slider and changeup and the ability to touch the mid-90s (although at the risk of coming out of his delivery). ... He's athletic enough to be able to maintain a consistent delivery, and the raw stuff is certainly there - he was fifth in the minors in strikeouts in 2014 - for him to be a frontline major league starter."
Norris was a really good get for Price, who the Tigers were losing for nothing anyway at the end of this season. Norris's debut with Detroit was on Sunday, and he basically had everyone saying, "Price who?" Saying he'll REPLACE Price is a bit of a stretch, but he's had a pretty nice start.
Soria was the next domino to fall, getting dealt to Pittsburgh a few hours after the Price deal. The player Detroit got in return, JaCoby Jones, is a mid-level SS prospect currently toiling away in double A. He's a 5-tool guy (speed, hit for power, hit for average, glove, throwing arm), so if he can put it together and make the big league club, this trade will look really good for Detroit. Right now it's a "well, at least we got something" trade.
Finally, Yoenis Cespedes was shipped to the Mets for a couple more pitching prospects. I like the deal from the prospective that there's a decent chance Cespedes signs back with Detroit in the offseason. Of the two prospects Detroit got in return, Matt Fulmer and Luis Cessa, Fulmer is the better prospect. Grantland's Jonah Keri thinks Fulmer might make the rotation as early as next spring. Cessa has been getting lit up since his promotion to triple A, but hopefully that's more a product of playing in the VERY hitter-friendly Vegas minor league ballpark in the VERY hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Fulmer is a good "get", and the Mets' reluctance to part with him is probably why this deal got done only at the last minute. Zack Wheeler would've been REALLY nice to get, but his inclusion in the proposed (and nixed) Carlos Gomez deal was based on the fact that CarGo has another year of team control. Getting Fulmer is good enough, and hopefully Cespedes comes back next year anyway.
Take a look at the Tigers' updated prospects list. Norris is at the top, although now he's with the big club he's less of a "prospect" and more of a player. Fulmer slots in at #5 on the list, just behind Buck Farmer, who's filled in with a spot start here and there already. Anybody that high on the list stands a chance to play in the majors next year. Matt Boyd and Luis Cessa follow at #8 and #9, which indicates that they're a couple of years away from debuting just yet. Finally, JaCoby Jones and Jairo Labourt come in at #13 and #15, respectively. They're at least 4 or 5 years away, if they're going to make it at all.
I liked the Tigers' moves overall. The pressure is off and I can enjoy the games without getting too frustrated with every loss. Plus, Dombrowski did a good job to get what he did. Dave Dombrowski's contract is up at the end of the year as well, and he may follow Price and the others out the door. If that's the case, I think he's left the team in decent shape to rebuild. They're still wearing Justin Verlander's contract like an albatross around their neck, but they've got some young talent coming up that mitigates the impact of some of those larger contracts. I think they'll re-sign Cespedes, and then hopefully they'll focus most of the rest of their spending on bullpen arms.
