The MLB All Star game is over and games start again this Friday, so let's take a look at the Tigers going into the 2nd half (technically they've already played more than half a season, but traditionally the All Star Break is considered the halfway point). The Tigers' record is .500 at 44-44, which is viewed as a big disappointment, given the season expectations.
The Tigers opened the season with the 4th-highest payroll in baseball, which ideally should lead to some wins. Unfortunately, while they improved some areas on the team, the starting pitching and the bullpen didn't get as much help. The offense & fielding were bolstered by the additions of Yoenis Cespedes (trade) and Jose Iglesias (return from injury), but they lost Max Scherzer (free agency) and Rick Porcello (traded for Cespedes) and did not adequately replace them (Simon and Greene have stunk, stunk, STUNK). They also did nothing to bolster the bullpen, which has been this team's Achilles' Heel since the Tigers have been good enough to HAVE an Achilles' Heel.
Of all the issues holding this team back, the pitching gets the most attention, and rightfully so. The Tigers have the 4th-highest ERA in baseball and the 5th-lowest number of strikeouts. That's probably not good. If you break it up between starters and relievers, it makes it a bit clearer. The Tigers' starters rank 18th in the MLB right now, which is actually better than the Royals and Giants who both have better records than Detroit does, and just below the Twins & Angels. The bullpen is a different story. A team can overcome a mediocre starting rotation with a good bullpen, or a mediocre bullpen can be overcome with good offense & starters, but nothing can overcome a 'pen as bad as this one.
Dombrowski added Neftali Feliz a few days ago, which was a classic Dombrowski move. Pick up a mostly-washed up, former closer and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. This is Joe Nathan, Soria, and Jim Johnson all over again, and I expect it to be about as unsuccessful as those moves were. The big speculation is whether the Tigers will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, likely adding an arm if they're buyers. The next 10 games are pretty crucial to determining which road the Tigers will take. If they're sellers, expect them to look to deal David Price and Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline. Neither player is under contract next year.
The Tigers' offense is actually pretty good, ranking 5th in Batting WAR and 3rd in runs scored. However, they could be a lot better. The Tigers are leading the league in GDP (that's "Grounded into Double-Play, not Gross Domestic Product) and times caught stealing, two stats that take potential runs off the board. UBR is a stat that takes into consideration all other aspects of baserunning, like getting thrown out, not tagging up, etc. The Tigers don't rank well there either. If they lead the league in grounding into double plays, caught stealing, and are towards the bottom in EVERY OTHER ASPECT OF BASERUNNING, we're not a good baserunning team. This is odd to me, because aside from two or three guys, we have good or even great speed across the board. So we either have some of the slowest fast guys in baseball, or our coaches aren't doing a good job of deciding when to send a guy and when to reign him in. I think it's probably the latter.
Based on the use of the bullpen, baserunning, and other decisions, I'd say coaching has already cost this team a couple of games. The real problem is the bullpen, and I don't think there's an easy fix for that. Unfortunately for this season, I think the Tigers' best move is to embrace a rebuild. I really like Cespedes and Price is by far their best starter, but this team is a mess right now and they're too top heavy in salary.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Pistons muddle through free agency, Stanley Johnson shines in Summer League
This was a very frustrating Pistons offseason for me. They passed on Justise Winslow in the draft. Ok, I've heard compelling arguments from the other side and have come to believe this is less of an incredible screw up than I originally thought. Both players are close. Most experts favored Winslow. He was only 1/2 an inch shorter, more athletic, and an elite defender. Johnson's offensive game was a bit more polished, he was stronger (with an extra 20 lbs of muscle), and he looked slightly less good than Winslow in every other category. Personally, I'd take the defensive freak, but I see the argument for Johnson has some merit.
Then came the trades and free agency. SVG traded for Ersan Ilyasova prior to the draft. With Monroe certainly heading out of town, Van Gundy wanted to add depth to the PF position. Ilyasova is a stretch 4 (he shoots .370% from 3pt range for his career, although his seasonal averages waver from about .400% to about .300), which fits with Drummond and Van Gundy's offense much better than Monroe did. However, the move cost the Pistons some cap space. This becomes important a little later.
The Pistons had targeted a couple of SFs to go after in free agency. Danny Green, a SG/SF, was a restricted FA for the Spurs. Reportedly we called him at 12:01AM the instant free agency began. Here's my impression of how that conversation may have played out:
Stan Van Gundy: Hey Danny, happy free agency! This is Stan from the Pistons, just wanted to let you know that we really like you and will pay you a lot of money to come to Detroit.
Danny Green: Um, yeah, thanks Stan. I appreciate that. But you should know that I'm already with someone, I'm happy here, and I think I really have a chance to help build something special.
SVG: That's great Danny, but do they appreciate YOU? I've got a $60M contract here that proves how much I appreciate you. What have the Spurs done for you lately?
DG: Well, we won a national championship like a year ago. Money isn't everything, and I'm committed to this relationship and I want to make it work. If that means taking less money to stay, I can make that sacrifice.SVG: Relationships are a two-way street, Danny. Remember that. We'll be here if you need us.
DG: Yeah, okay.
SVG: By the way, do you have a friend?
DeMarre Carroll was next on the list. He had a breakout season last year as the starting SF for the Hawks. Carroll was on his first free agent visit with Toronto, heard the number he wanted to hear, and cancelled his other visits. I figured Draymond Green wouldn't see the light of day, that Golden State would lock him up before he had a chance to hear any offers. Their contract talks broke down, so for a few hours I had a slim hope that the Warriors were insincere in their desire to re-sign Green at any cost. Unfortunately, Golden State recovered and offered a max-type deal of 5 years, $85M which Green gladly accepted.
That left Tobias Harris - a young SF/PF combo-forward with 3pt range, Wes Matthews - a 3&D SG/SF coming off an Achilles tear, and Khris Middleton - a throw-in from the Brandon Jennings/Knight trade who turned into a 3&D monster. Both Harris and Middleton were RFAs, so the incumbent team could match any offer. The word on Harris was Orlando wasn't going to match a near-max deal, so he was supposedly more attainable than Middleton was. Matthews was less desirable, since he was coming off of a serious injury and was more of a 2 than a 3 or 4. Harris seemed like it was going to happen, and then... this.
Aron Baynes is basically a replacement-level player the Pistons signed for the type of money that goes to your best guy off the bench. Several equivalent or even better players went for far less money. And not only was it an overpay, it killed any cap space the Pistons had for signing Harris, Middleton, or Matthews. Van Gundy mitigated this terrible move and his failure to sign any of the names he had targeted by making a deal with Phoenix to help them clear cap space. The trade sent a 2020 2nd round pick to the Suns for Marcus Morris (who will either start at SF or come off the bench as a SF or PF), Danny Granger (who might get cut or might be a 2nd- or 3rd-string SF), and Reggie Bullock (who might get cut or might be the 3rd-string SG or SF).
By all accounts, both trades were considered favorable to Detroit. In both cases we lost little and gained more. The Baynes signing was pretty bad, probably overpaying him by 30-50%. Reggie Jackson signed a near-max deal to stay in Detroit, which I considered a solid move. But the object this offseason should have been to put the team in good position for next offseason. Detroit was one of a few teams with good cap space to sign free agents. Next season, everyone will have good cap space. They needed to sign their max guy this year and go for filler next year.
I'm reserving total judgment in the hopes that SVG is working on asset acquisition, hoping to pull off some One Red Paperclip type of swindle. Van Gundy could be looking for players who have a talent/value gap on the open market, but that wouldn't explain the Baynes signing. At this point they have to either hope that they're good enough to attract a quality FA, or that they're bad enough to land a top 3 draft pick. They've lived in the middle ground for the past 7 years.
***
Stanley Johnson has been really good in Summer League play. Through 3 games he's averaging 17 pts, 6.5 rebs, 2 assists, 2 steals, he had a monsterous block on Justise Winslow, and he's shooting .704/.500/.563. This is a ridiculously small sample size, and it's Summer League. Summer League success doesn't necessarily translate to the NBA regular season, just ask Austin Daye.
In the anticipated Winslow/Johnson matchup yesterday, Johnson acquitted himself very well. He only took 5 shots but managed 14 points, 7 boards, 2 dimes, 2 steals and dat block! Plus, he mentioned a couple of "hockey assists" (passes that lead to passes that lead to baskets) which don't show up in the stat sheet. He also racked up 5 fouls, all in the first half. Johnson's assessment was he wasn't playing strong, physical defense, causing him to lose Winslow and bump him when Johnson tried to recover. He adjusted in the 2nd half and was much better.
Stanley Johnson looks like he has the potential to be a very good player in the NBA. I don't think he'll ever be a STAR, but he might make an all star team or 2.
Then came the trades and free agency. SVG traded for Ersan Ilyasova prior to the draft. With Monroe certainly heading out of town, Van Gundy wanted to add depth to the PF position. Ilyasova is a stretch 4 (he shoots .370% from 3pt range for his career, although his seasonal averages waver from about .400% to about .300), which fits with Drummond and Van Gundy's offense much better than Monroe did. However, the move cost the Pistons some cap space. This becomes important a little later.
The Pistons had targeted a couple of SFs to go after in free agency. Danny Green, a SG/SF, was a restricted FA for the Spurs. Reportedly we called him at 12:01AM the instant free agency began. Here's my impression of how that conversation may have played out:
Stan Van Gundy: Hey Danny, happy free agency! This is Stan from the Pistons, just wanted to let you know that we really like you and will pay you a lot of money to come to Detroit.
Danny Green: Um, yeah, thanks Stan. I appreciate that. But you should know that I'm already with someone, I'm happy here, and I think I really have a chance to help build something special.
SVG: That's great Danny, but do they appreciate YOU? I've got a $60M contract here that proves how much I appreciate you. What have the Spurs done for you lately?
DG: Well, we won a national championship like a year ago. Money isn't everything, and I'm committed to this relationship and I want to make it work. If that means taking less money to stay, I can make that sacrifice.SVG: Relationships are a two-way street, Danny. Remember that. We'll be here if you need us.
DG: Yeah, okay.
SVG: By the way, do you have a friend?
DeMarre Carroll was next on the list. He had a breakout season last year as the starting SF for the Hawks. Carroll was on his first free agent visit with Toronto, heard the number he wanted to hear, and cancelled his other visits. I figured Draymond Green wouldn't see the light of day, that Golden State would lock him up before he had a chance to hear any offers. Their contract talks broke down, so for a few hours I had a slim hope that the Warriors were insincere in their desire to re-sign Green at any cost. Unfortunately, Golden State recovered and offered a max-type deal of 5 years, $85M which Green gladly accepted.
That left Tobias Harris - a young SF/PF combo-forward with 3pt range, Wes Matthews - a 3&D SG/SF coming off an Achilles tear, and Khris Middleton - a throw-in from the Brandon Jennings/Knight trade who turned into a 3&D monster. Both Harris and Middleton were RFAs, so the incumbent team could match any offer. The word on Harris was Orlando wasn't going to match a near-max deal, so he was supposedly more attainable than Middleton was. Matthews was less desirable, since he was coming off of a serious injury and was more of a 2 than a 3 or 4. Harris seemed like it was going to happen, and then... this.
Aron Baynes is basically a replacement-level player the Pistons signed for the type of money that goes to your best guy off the bench. Several equivalent or even better players went for far less money. And not only was it an overpay, it killed any cap space the Pistons had for signing Harris, Middleton, or Matthews. Van Gundy mitigated this terrible move and his failure to sign any of the names he had targeted by making a deal with Phoenix to help them clear cap space. The trade sent a 2020 2nd round pick to the Suns for Marcus Morris (who will either start at SF or come off the bench as a SF or PF), Danny Granger (who might get cut or might be a 2nd- or 3rd-string SF), and Reggie Bullock (who might get cut or might be the 3rd-string SG or SF).
By all accounts, both trades were considered favorable to Detroit. In both cases we lost little and gained more. The Baynes signing was pretty bad, probably overpaying him by 30-50%. Reggie Jackson signed a near-max deal to stay in Detroit, which I considered a solid move. But the object this offseason should have been to put the team in good position for next offseason. Detroit was one of a few teams with good cap space to sign free agents. Next season, everyone will have good cap space. They needed to sign their max guy this year and go for filler next year.
I'm reserving total judgment in the hopes that SVG is working on asset acquisition, hoping to pull off some One Red Paperclip type of swindle. Van Gundy could be looking for players who have a talent/value gap on the open market, but that wouldn't explain the Baynes signing. At this point they have to either hope that they're good enough to attract a quality FA, or that they're bad enough to land a top 3 draft pick. They've lived in the middle ground for the past 7 years.
***
Stanley Johnson has been really good in Summer League play. Through 3 games he's averaging 17 pts, 6.5 rebs, 2 assists, 2 steals, he had a monsterous block on Justise Winslow, and he's shooting .704/.500/.563. This is a ridiculously small sample size, and it's Summer League. Summer League success doesn't necessarily translate to the NBA regular season, just ask Austin Daye.
In the anticipated Winslow/Johnson matchup yesterday, Johnson acquitted himself very well. He only took 5 shots but managed 14 points, 7 boards, 2 dimes, 2 steals and dat block! Plus, he mentioned a couple of "hockey assists" (passes that lead to passes that lead to baskets) which don't show up in the stat sheet. He also racked up 5 fouls, all in the first half. Johnson's assessment was he wasn't playing strong, physical defense, causing him to lose Winslow and bump him when Johnson tried to recover. He adjusted in the 2nd half and was much better.
Stanley Johnson looks like he has the potential to be a very good player in the NBA. I don't think he'll ever be a STAR, but he might make an all star team or 2.
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