Lions stink at drafting, Pistons are once again drafting from the 8th spot

The Lions are TERRIBLE drafters. Matt Millen was one of the worst drafting GMs in football history, which I've already covered at length, but it's worth mentioning how bad Martin Mayhew has been. Going back to his 1st draft in 2009, 3 players are left from that draft (if you really want to count Pettigrew), all of 2010 is gone, and 2011 is gone. In actually evaluating his draft choices, he gets a useful player out of about a third or a quarter of his picks. Looking at the later picks, he might get one useful player out of every 10 guys.

As bad as Mayhew has been at drafting, he's been ok at free agency and trades. This year has been the exception, although I do like the Haloti Ngata trade. Leaving are Suh, Fairley, Sammy Hill, Dom Raiola, Rob Sims, and now last season's find George Johnson. Replacing them are Ngata, Tyrun Walker, who knows, Travis Swanson, who knows, and who knows. Mayhew already needed to have a good draft, now with Suh et al gone, he needs to knock this one out of the park.

With the draft coming up in 2 weeks, let's review: Prior to the free agency shakeup, I thought RB was a possibility for the Lions in round 1. They could still go with Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon, but I happen to agree with Mel Kiper Jr here - the Lions will draft the top lineman available with the 23rd pick, offense or defense, unless there was tremendous value at another position. The second round could go very much the same, although RB & CB become likely options there as well. Through rounds 1-3, the Lions should end up with 2 lineman and another player, either RB, CB, or WR/KR. I could see DE joining that group also.

I don't think Mayhew's job is necessarily on the line here, but it should be. Lewand too. They've done a terrible job of building through the draft and managing the cap (although they were hamstrung a bit by the old CBA). They failed to keep Suh, which is enough to put them on the hot seat in and of itself. Mayhew needs to kill this draft, and he really needs his 2014 draft to vindicate itself. Outside of Travis Swanson, it looks pretty busted.

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The Pistons' season is over, once again failing to either make the playoffs or to tank for a top 5 pick. Once again, they're most likely drafting 8th (pending the lottery results). Last year the guy I wanted Detroit to pick was Julius Randle. He of course went 7th to the Lakers, and the Pistons lost their semi-protected pick when Cleveland leap-frogged them, pushing Detroit's pick out of the top 8 and sending it to Charlotte (result of Dumars' less-than-inspired Ben Gordon trade). In 2013, I wanted McLemore (we got KCP). In 2012 I wanted Drummond, which actually worked out for once (I was also kind of rooting for Harrison Barnes to fall to us, but that was because I didn't think Drummond would last that long). In 2011 I wanted us to trade back and get Kenneth Faried. In 2010 I was hoping DeMarcus Cousins would slip to the Pistons at 7, although Monroe's turned out ok. In 2009 I wanted Detroit to draft Ty Lawson at 15th, instead they passed him up for Austin Daye.

You get the idea. Half the time, the ideal guy gets taken 1 or 2 picks ahead of the Pistons or Dumars decided to pass up the better player for a bust. I'd like to think that Stan is going to change this trend, but the 9-6 run the team went on at the end of the season suggests he's not open to the concept of tanking (even 3 more losses would've put Detroit in a tie for the 6th pick - these things kill me). Stan Van Gundy doesn't need to kill this draft like Mayhew does, but he does need to get a quality player.

1. Knock it out of the Park

Justise Winslow, SF - Duke
6'6", 222 lbs
College Per Game Stats: 12.6 pts, 6.5 rebs, 2.1 ast, 1.3 stl, 0.9 blk
Shooting %: .486 FG%, .418 3P%, .641 FT%

The Pistons would need no small amount of luck to land Winslow, either getting a top 3 pick via the lottery or something weird to happen on draft day, because Chad Ford has him ranked 6th and I fully expect Winslow to be drafted higher than that. He's an absolute beast on offense and defense, and he can shoot the 3 or attack the rim. The only real knock on him is Winslow's a touch short for an NBA SF, but I think his ferocity more than makes up for the lack of another inch or 2. It's going to kill me when the Nuggets take him 1 pick ahead of the Pistons.

2. Solid Backup Plan

Mario Hezonja, SF - Barcelona
6'7"(ish), 200 lbs
Euro Per Game Stats: 6.2 pts, 2.0 rebs, 1.2 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.1 blk
Shooting %: .470 FG%, .403 3P%, .767 FT%

Some teams rank Hezonja ahead of Winslow. Hezonja got burn in Spain's Liga ACB, which is much tougher competition than you'd see in college or the D League. He did come off the bench, but had he played in college he might've averaged 18+ ppg. He possesses more prototypical size for an NBA SF (he might actually be 6'8") and has a really nice shot, which Detroit is always needs. On the downside, his defense isn't great and he might be a pain in the ass.

3. The Best of the Rest

Stanley Johnson, SF - Arizona
6'7", 237 lbs
College Per Game Stats: 13.8 pts, 6.5 rebs, 1.7 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.4 blk
Shooting %: .446 FG%, .371 3P%, .742 FT%

Stanley Johnson is like Justise Winslow-lite. He does similar things, but he doesn't do them as well. I've only watched him play in 2 games, both times he sort of faded into the background. For a guy with a rep as a game changer, he looked more like a 3 & D type to me.

Kevon Looney, PF - UCLA
6'10", 210 lbs
College Per Game Stats: 11.6 pts, 9.2 rebs, 1.4 ast, 1.3 stl, 0.9 blk
Shooting %: .470 FG%, .415 3P%, .626FT%

Looney might be the perfect stretch 4 to pair with Drummond. Maybe. There's a lot of good, raw material to work with, but it's unclear what he will become. He rebounds, defends and shoots the 3 well, but he will most likely never be a feature scorer. He didn't really shoot the 3 a TON either, so we don't have a big enough sample size to definitively say that he's a legit shooter. He's not terribly athletic and he needs to add about 20 lbs of muscle, but most of these weaknesses (like lack of a post game) are more like strengths when you pair him with Drummond.

Kelly Oubre, SF - Kansas
6'7", 204 lbs
College Per Game Stats: 9.3 pts, 5.0 rebs, 1.5 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.4 blk
Shooting %: .444 FG%, .358 3P%, .718 FT%

Oubre came in with a lot of hype and didn't deliver. Not really. Many think he's got more upside than the other SFs in this draft - Winslow, Hezonja, and Johnson - but he has much more to work on. He looks pretty average for a supposedly deadly outside shooter, and that might be attributable to his shot selection. His defensive effort comes and goes, but he's an athlete and might end up as the best of this group.

The Pistons have needed a SF since Tayshaun lost his legs in 2008, but for whatever reason they have failed to address this. This looks like a pretty good draft for SFs (of course you never REALLY know until you know, right?), so odds are the reign of mediocrity is nearing an end. They could go PF here and get Looney or even PG if one of the top guys falls, but most likely Stan Van Gundy drafts a 3 here.

The Pistons have had terrible lottery luck, but at 2.8% it's not like they're expected to get a top pick (3.3% for the #2 pick, 3.9% for #3). I'd love to see them get the #3 pick and walk away with Winslow, but most likely they stay at #8 and take Hezonja or Stanley Johnson. Check out ESPN's Mock Lottery Draft to see how different scenarios might play out. I'll check back in on the draft after the lottery & combine with an update.