It's time to be worried about Verlander

2014 was not a good year for Justin Verlander. By most statistical measures, it was one of the 2 worst seasons he's ever had. He allowed more baserunners, runs, and struck out hitters at a lower rate than he has since 2008, which was probably his worst season. His WAR in 2014 was even lower than it was for that abysmal 2008 campaign. Verlander needed to make an authoritative step back towards the Cy Young-level dominance that we'd come to expect from him. Then he left early in his last spring start with "cramping" in his triceps. This was actually a triceps strain (cramping never really happens in the triceps), which caused him to miss his first regular season start. Now it looks like he's going to miss start #2 when it was announced that he would go on the DL and Kyle Lobstein was getting called up to take Verlander's spot in the rotation.

Verlander is 32. In the spring of 2013, the Tigers signed him to a deal that would pay him $28M/yr from 2015 through 2019, with a $22M option for 2020 if he wins the 2019 Cy Young Award (unlikely). That's a lot of money for a pitcher going into his early-to-mid-thirties. But Verlander is a superhuman who can throw 100 mph in the 9th inning, right? Actually, he hasn't done that in a while.

The last year Verlander was REALLY good was 2012. His fastball averaged 94.7 mph, topping out at 101.5 and bottoming out at 91.1 mph. In 2013, he dipped a bit. Average velocity was 94.0, max was 99.9 and min was 91.1. Then in 2014 his average fastball fell to 93.1 mph, with a max velocity of 98.0 and a minimum of 91.1. Ok, that's an incremental decrease in max and average velocity for the past 2 years. So what? Well, his fastball has also been increasingly hittable. In 2012, opposing hitters hit .238 against his fasball. In 2013 they hit .278, and in 2014 they hit .283. That means in addition to decreasing velocity, Verlander's fastball is probably losing some of its side-to-side motion as well. That's not good.

Verlander's off-speed pitches - a changeup, a curveball and a slider - haven't experienced the same decrease in velocity, but they HAVE experienced the same increase in hittable-ness. The changeup went from holding opposing hitters to a .244 batting average in 2012, to .270 in 2013 and .278 in 2014. His curve got VERY hittable, going from a lights-out .129 in 2012 to .192 in 2013 to .264 in 2014. All of this is to say that in each of the last 2 years, Verlander has been more hittable and throw a slower fastball than the year before (thanks to fangraphs for the stats).

The 2015 optimist would say, "Verlander was recovering from surgeries the last 2 years, so he wasn't at 100%. He'll be back this year." That is a possible explanation. Or, he could just be getting old and worn down, and his body might be breaking down a little bit. This triceps thing has me worried. My optimistic side will point to Nolan Ryan, who was an effective pitcher into his mid-40s. Like Verlander, Ryan was an innings eater who threw fire and often led the league in strikeouts (including 4 straight years from age 40 to 43). The worried part of me will counter, "how many other pitchers did what Ryan did?"

The facts are these: Verlander has dealt with injuries now in three straight springs. His numbers have steadily declined the last 2 seasons. He's on the wrong side of 30, and he's set to be one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball for the next 5 years. He could absolutely turn this around, but count me among the worried.