Mich-'Cuse Final Four Preview, and Why I Don't Like Shabazz Muhammad

I'm going to start out today with a Final Four preview, then cut to a bit on the NBA draft & the Pistons...

First, the match-ups:
PG - Trey Burke vs. Michael Carter-Williams
Both are NBA prospects projected to go in the top 15 picks. One is 6'1" (maybe), the other is 6'6". Burke is definitely more dangerous with his shot, I'd say they're about the same in passing, and MCW has maybe a slight edge in defense, although he's weaker against quicker players. Despite the size disadvantage, I think Burke's swipe move will have success against MCW. Edge - Michigan.
SG - Nick Stauskas vs. Brandon Triche 
Stauskas had been practically dormant all tournament until coming alive against Florida, hitting 6 of 6 threes. He has begun to show another side of his game, putting the ball on the floor and finishing his layups well. Triche is shorter but more athletic. Call this one a draw.
SF - Tim Hardaway Jr. vs. James Southerland
Hardaway Jr. gives up a little size in this match-up, not to mention his shot hasn't been there since the first game of the tourney. If that notoriously streaky shot reappears, Hardaway murders this match-up. If not... Slight edge - Syracuse.
PF - Glenn Robinson III vs. CJ Fair
GR3 has been one of Michigan's breakout performers in the tournament, drawing first round murmurs for the upcoming draft (went with "murmurs" instead of "buzz", hope you like). CJ Fair is Syracuse's leading scorer and one of the few that can match GR3's athleticism, not to mention he owns (wait for it) a size advantage over Robinson (notice a theme?). Given Robinson's penchant for disappearing in games, edge - Syracuse.
C - Mitch McGary vs. Lloyd... I mean Rakeem Christmas
McGary is Michigan's other breakout star, and he's been a revelation. Giving Michigan an inside presence and rebounding that wasn't there before, he's made them a more versatile team. His PnR game will be key to breaking down the Orange defense. Christmas is basically Syracuse's version of Jordan Morgan. Nuff said, edge - Michigan (and it isn't close).
Bench - Albrecht/Horford/Morgan/LeVert vs. Grant/Cooney/Keita
Syracuse has basically played with a 3-man bench this tournament since DaJuan Coleman is apparently still hampered by his knee surgery. Albrecht has played big minutes the last 3 games and is better than anyone on 'Cuse's bench. Keita is probably the best the Orange have, and he is also a Jordan Morgan clone. Edge - Michigan.
Coaching - John Beilein vs. Jim Boeheim
I've often wondered about Beilein's coaching ability, but he's pulled out a few things this tournament that eased my concerns. Boeheim is a legend and his morphing 2-3 zone defense is practically mythical. I wonder though... I think Beilein will find a way to break it, then what will Boeheim do? At this point, it's a draw.

I'm not going to make a prediction on the game because a) I'm super biased, and b) I'm somewhat superstitious. I will say this - I think Michigan will find a way to beat that crushing zone that wilted Indiana and Marquette. Will the good version of Michigan's D show up? Will Tim Hardaway Jr.'s shot make a well-timed reappearance? I certainly hope so.

Ok, SMOOTHLY transitioning to NBA prospects that have been already knocked out of the tournament, I was recently taking a look at Shabazz Muhammad. Currently the Pistons are in the #5 draft spot, but it's tight & a weaker remaining schedule could mean they slide back a couple picks. ESPN's NBA Mock Draft generator has the Pistons' draft board with McLemore at the top, then Porter, then Oladipo. If they fall out of the top 5 or 6 picks, it has them taking Muhammad over Burke (based off of Chad Forde's information, which has a history of being accurate on the Pistons).

I don't like Shabazz Muhammad. I don't like his game, I don't like his attitude. And there are several things that make me think he's not going to produce up to expectations. Before I bias you any further, here's his scouting video (it's a might long):

 Ok, you've seen the good, the bad, and the ugly. Now MY concerns are as follows -

• A lot of the attention he's gotten has been based on his HS hype, and it turns out he was a year older than the guys he was playing against (the age thing is a big deal, btw)
• Reports of Muhammad's athleticism have been greatly exaggerated. He doesn't dunk in traffic or from a standing position, he doesn't blow by defenders, and despite a 6'11" wingspan, he doesn't block many shots (4 total on the season)
• Reportedly, he's a bit of a headcase. Maybe more than a bit. There's the thing with his age, his dad, and getting upset that his PG made a game winner instead of him. Not a fan...
• He's a black hole. Doesn't like to let go of the ball once it touches his hands. Don't like that either
• Lastly, his shooting fell off considerably as the season went on. This deserves its own section, so...

Early in the college basketball season, Muhammad was praised as the top scorer in the country. He was scoring the most points, shooting over 50% from the field and NEARLY 50% from 3, albeit in a smallish sample-size. Well, that didn't stick.

• In Shabazz's first 10 games he shot .500 FG% on 136 attempts and .483 3PT% on 29 attempts, highlighted by a couple of 27 point games in a row against Fresno State and Missouri
• In his next 10 games his FG% fell to .423 and his 3PT% slipped to .382. He had some ok games in that stretch, but the Utah and Oregon games were pretty bad
• The final 12 games reflected more of what I think we'll see at the NBA level - a volume shooter with no shame. His FG% fell again to .415 and his 3PT% fell way below college average to .302
• The worst game of that last stretch was undoubtedly the Washington State game, where he shot 4-19 in the game and 2-11 from 3. Wow. Also, his last 3 games combined he shot 15-52 (.288 FG%) and 0-9 from 3 (that's, uh, .000 3PT%)

Muhammad went from being an unsustainably efficient scorer in his first 10 games with a .602 True Shooting%, to a very-sustainably INefficient scorer his final 22 games. The 2nd 10 games - .509 TS%, final 12 games - .501 TS%. For reference, the top 24 SG's in the league shoot above a .55 TS%, as do the top 24 SF's. Give me Burke over this guy, PLEASE.

Pistonpowered.com posted some news about Lawrence Frank potentially taking over the HC job at Rutgers. My heart skipped a beat at that, I must admit. I'm not a fan of Dumars firing yet another coach, but Frank hasn't been great in Detroit, it must be said. I think him taking a job to be closer to his wife (who is seriously ill with something, we don't know what) would be best for everyone.

Finally, the Tigers' offense woke up vs. the Yankees this afternoon, Prince Fielder mashing 2 HR's, and going on to win 8-3. Fister wasn't sharp, but he was good enough to win.

Enjoy the weekend, good luck to Michigan in the Final Four!