Consensus on the Lions' draft is they did good, not great. They got a guy who's a bit of a boom-or-bust project at DE, then they went for CB with one of the fastest 40-times but has some health concerns. They followed up in the 3rd round by grabbing OG Larry Warford, who I actually liked better than OT Menelik Watson (the guy Kiper wanted them to take in the 2nd). They finished off the draft by taking another tall DE, a punter (a PUNTER??), a WR, RB, TE, and an ILB. Interestingly, they signed an undrafted free agent that I think is a threat to make the team, maybe even crack the rotation if Reiff or Hilliard prove ineffective - OT LaAdrian Waddle. He's a BIG guy (6'6", 332 lbs) and you know he can pass block, playing at Texas Tech. My guess is he makes the team (WAY too thin at OT right now), and eventually gets a starting spot in a year or 2.
The hope is that the Lions drafted 3 players who will give an immediate impact. Maybe less immediate with Ansah, he may not be ready to take the majority of the snaps at the beginning of the year. My guess is they bring Ansah on slowly, and by about halfway through the year he's taking a majority of the snaps at one of the DE spots. Darius Slay (great name) SHOULD push for the #2 CB spot if healthy enough to play. It's definitely a concern to me that the Lions spent ANOTHER high draft pick on a guy with injury concerns, the hope is obviously that it won't come back to bite them (like it did the last 12 times).
Day 1, Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft is in the books. I have to say, it didn't play out exactly the way I wanted. I was REALLY hoping that one of the top 3 OT's would still be available at the Lions' pick, and a week ago it looked likely. Instead the Lions ended up taking Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah, a very exciting prospect at DE who still needs a LOT of work.
He made some big plays on pure athleticism, especially the hit on Denard Robinson in the Senior Bowl. He looked beat, scraped along the line and caught up. His athleticism is really exciting, his instincts are pretty good (especially considering his VERY limited experience), and he can deliver some vicious hits.
My main concern is his technique. There are 4 basic techniques that D linemen use to rush the passer - the swim move, the spin move, the bull rush, and the rip (or chop & rip, club & rip, etc.) technique. The spin and bull rush moves don't really work unless combined with another move, and naturally those are the 2 moves Ansah uses the most. My HS football coach hated it when we used a spin move because usually high schoolers don't use it properly, resulting in 3 things: 1) moving laterally out of position, 2) presenting the blocker your back, making you easier to block, and 3) causing you to lose sight of the play & waste time (I never used the spin move, mainly swim, rip, and occasionally bull rush). Ansah uses it primarily as an escape move when the play moves out of the pocket. It definitely needs some work.
The bull rush works well for Ansah in college because he's so quick & strong. When he beats the OT off the snap, he can get under his pads and drive that OT back. In the NFL, pass blocking OT's usually line up in a 2-point stance and are less susceptible to just a straight bull rush technique (combining with a spin works well though). The bull rush also doesn't work too well against a double-team, or if a TE or RB chips the DE (as they frequently do against the Lions). Ansah is basically a 1 or 2 move pass rusher, and he needs 2-3 moves EVERY PLAY. Send him to Chuck Smith's pass rush school first thing this off-season. A couple of years of that & this kid could be leading the league in sacks by year 3.
Day 2, Rounds 2 & 3 begins at 6:30 tonight. The Lions have the 4th pick of the 2nd round and the 3rd pick in the 3rd round. They still need help at OL (preferably someone who can come right out & start), CB, and OLB... and they probably need another DE and a WR. Here are some options still available for the Lions' top needs, along with highlight videos of my favorites:
He's fast, probably the fastest CB available. At this point he looks like a #2 CB who could develop into a #1. He's good in coverage and isn't afraid to tackle a runner (which Gunther Cunningham LOVES in a CB). Needs work on reading plays & not looking into the backfield too much, but he does a better job of turning and LOOKING FOR THE BALL than many of the Lions' other CB's (something that's easier when you have closing speed). CB Johnathan Banks (Mississippi State) - 6'2", 185 lbs, 4.61 40-timeHe's bigger, but slower & weaker than Taylor (10 bench reps vs. 22 reps), and really looks more like a safety than a CB. Actually, he used to BE a safety, so that fits. CB Tyrann Mathieu (LSU, sort of) - 5'9", 186 lbs, 4.50 40-time The Honey Badger would be a 3rd round pick, and more than a bit of a risk considering the Lions' continuing off-the-field problems. He's a Swiss Army Knife defender, a ball hawk, and could also return punts.
He's another guy who's just learning the game (born in the UK) but looks promising. He started at RT his entire junior season and may have taken over at LT his senior year, but decided to enter the draft to support his family. He looks like he could come in & play RT right now for the Lions, maybe eventually taking the LT job if Reiff or whoever can't handle it. OG Larry Warford (Kentucky) - 6'3", 332 lbs, 28 reps-benchBIG big guy. Needs to add explosion, but overall a lot to like. I actually like him a LITTLE better than Watson except the Lions are DYING for a tackle, especially since it sounds like Reiff could move to guard. OT Terron Armstead (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) - 6'5", 306 lbs, 31 reps-benchHe showed blazing speed for an OT at the combine (4.71 40-time), but I don't think that's as relevant for an OT. Armstead had his hands full at times in the Senior Bowl. He can handle speed rushers just fine, but a guy like Justin Smith would eat him for lunch. If he adds some strength in his legs, he'd be a good get in the 3rd round.
This is the only LB I think the Lions should consider in the 2nd round (pass on Manti Te'o). He's a good tackler (something Lions LB's struggle with), and a move to the weak-side LB spot should mitigate his problems due to lack of size. He has the speed to play Will LB (weak-side), could play Sam (strong-side), & is easily a plug & play guy (immediate impact). OLB Chase Thomas (Stanford) - 6'3", 244lbs, 4.91 40-time He improved on his 40-time on his pro day (4.80), but it's pretty clear he has questionable athleticism at best. He makes plays by hustling. He could play Sam, lacks speed for Will. OLB Khaseem Greene (Rutgers) - 6'1", 241 lbs, 4.71 40-timeBetter athlete than Thomas but has questionable hustle, so I rank him lower. His production for 2012 was pretty good though (136 tackles, 12 for loss, 6 sacks, 5 PD, 6 FF).
Also hanging out there but less of a need are DE's Margus Hunt (if he's still there in the 3rd, TAKE HIM) and William Gholston, or WR's Markus Wheaton, Josh Boyce, or Aaron Dobson. KR is also a need, and Jordan Poyer, BW Webb, or Dennis Johnson later in the draft.
The Wings won last night and just need a win in their last game or a Columbus loss to make the playoffs. They need Minnesota to lose their next 2 games to make the #7 seed. Just in case you were wondering.
I KILLED my AM run today, doing 3 miles in 23:42. My ankle's been feeling a little better since I've given it a little extra rest, so hopefully that continues. Going to Live Coal Gallery's Opening tonight after work. My wife & I got a free membership because I pitched in to get the space ready, so, looking forward to that. Have a good Friday!
At this point in the NFL off-season, mock drafts are like pimples - everybody's got 5 to 20 of them. McShay and Kiper make it look like they have less by going the 4.1 route, but really they each have about 9-10. The one I place most credence in is Mike Mayock's. He basically does what an NFL scout does, going to the combine and pro days, looking at team needs, etc. Then he does his mock ON DRAFT DAY, not immediately following the Super Bowl. He's like the Nostradamus of the NFL Draft, rarely getting it wrong.
Anyway, setting aside the possibility of a team trading down, Mayock has the top 3 OT's going in the top 4 picks, leaving Detroit with the option of either Ziggy Ansah at DE or Dee Milliner at CB. Mayock likes Ansah's upside, saying he might be the top defensive player in football in a couple years. That sounds good. OT is a SLIGHTLY bigger need (and protects investments in Stafford & Bush) and if someone trades into the top 4 to grab Geno Smith, one of the top 3 tackles could drop to Detroit at 5.
Last thing I want to say about the draft - this is NOT the year to completely ignore need for BPA. If Sharrif Floyd is the best available when the Lions go on the clock, they should still pass him up for Ansah or Milliner. The Lions have gaping holes at DE and OT, and slightly less gaping holes at OG and CB. The answer to the DE/OT problem is not currently on the team, and OG and CB may be on the team already, maybe not. This is a team that NEEDS to get back into the playoffs, they won't do that by taking another DT or WR in the first or second round.
The Wings snuck past Columbus for the 8th seed in the Western Conference. With 2 games left, Detroit needs to win out to be assured a playoff spot but can also clinch with a win & a Columbus loss tonight. They could move up as high as the 7th seed if they win out and Minnesota loses at least once. The 7th seed is WAY more preferable, since the opponent would be the Ducks and the Wings have a winning record against them (2-1-0). The Blackhawks have owned the Wings this year (0-2-2), so obviously winning out is the best scenario.
This has definitely been a rebuilding year for the Wings. They still get decent production out of their long-time stars (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen and Kronwall), but they also got some great production out of some newer faces (Brunner, Smith), and guys like Nyquist and DeKeyser have shown flashes of what they could bring. Despite this being his first year in the NHL, Brunner is a bit older and not considered a rookie, so I don't expect too much improvement from him down the road. Brendan Smith looks like the real deal though, and Nyquist has a nose for the goal that will only get better.
Guess who's back (and sporting some hideously-dyed facial hair)? That's right, Valverde came in and got a 1-2-3 save. Each batter made SERIOUS contact, but hit it in the general vicinity of a glove and made an out. On a more encouraging note, Victor Martinez appeared to break out of his mini-slump (1-15, 0 RBI last 4 games) by going 2-5 and picking up 2 RBI on a double laced down the 1B line and a single. More of that would be good, because Martinez's AVG on the year is still south of Mendoza, teams are walking Fielder to get to him, and he hasn't been producing with runners in scoring position like he has in the past.
A lot's happened since I last did a post. Things were busy at work, so I had to skip a couple days. Anyway, with the draft coming up tomorrow, let's start with the Lions...
ESPN is flashing McShay's Mock 5.1, Kiper's Mock 4.1, and a seven round mock done by Scouts Inc. McShay has the Lions taking DE Ansah in the first, Kiper has them taking CB Milliner, and Scouts Inc has them taking Ansah first, OT Terron Armstead second, CB Dwayne Gratz third, and OLB Chase Thomas fourth. To be honest, I had to look those last 3 guys up. I'm not really excited about the prospect of grabbing another 3rd round CB, and the scouts draft as a whole I didn't like. It was more a matching of their scouting with team needs, not what teams might actually DO. More and more buzz that the Lions might go with OT Lane Johnson with their #1 pick, if Joeckel and Fisher are both gone (which increasingly looks like the case). The Chiefs are almost definitely taking an OT now, since they're probably trading Albert. Jacksonville might go OT also, and for some reason a lot of mocks have Philly taking an OT, despite the fact that they have 2 good ones under contract.
Anyway, if the top 2 OT's are gone, Johnson might be a good way to go. He's a big of a project (originally recruited as a QB), not a ton of experience at LT, but he's a physical specimen & very athletic. If he goes in the top 4, I like Milliner a little better than Ansah right now. Milliner will help immediately (which the Lions need), and there's plenty of DE depth in the late 1st-early 2nd round. Still like Margus Hunt.
Another possibility, and one Adam Schefter thinks is likely, is that the Lions trade down. I'm less than crazy about that, but trading down could afford the Lions a good shot at one of the top OG's (Chance Warmack & Jonathan Cooper) and an extra pick later on. Ideal trade-down scenario would have the Lions swap with the Jets at 13, draft an OG and then get a DE like Hunt and a RT prospect like Kyle Long in the second round.
The Tigers' offense fell apart this past weekend, including a game where they loaded the bases in 3 different innings and failed to get a run (they lost in extra innings). The good news is there is some hope for the bullpen, with ERA disaster Brayan Villareal mercifully getting sent down, and Bruce Rondon & Jose Valverde coming up. Valverde's dropped 15 lbs, gotten some velocity back, and is throwing his splitter again. That all sounds good, although very suspicious. Niyo seemed to invite PED questions by saying:
"But beyond that, it's a bit of a mystery how Valverde managed to find the velocity he'd steadily lost the past few years and the split-finger fastball he'd all but abandoned by the end of last season."
Whether or not there's any merit to that, the Tigers are signing up for the Valverde roller-coaster again. At least until Rondon is ready.
The question becomes Who's Next? The Pistons are notoriously fickle with their coaches. Since Chuck Daly, only Doug Collins (fired mid-season in his 3rd year) and Flip Saunders (fired after his 3rd season) lasted more than 2 seasons as a head coach in Detroit.
The Candidates: Note: I'm skipping over guys like Phil Jackson, Jerry Sloan and Jeff Van Gundy. I think they'd be great coaches, but they're unlikely to come here or even coach again.
He's the name you'll probably hear the most, at least from fans. He's had the HC job in Seattle (RIP) and Portland, and he's also a former player. He also was an assistant in the Beijing Olympics under Krzyzewski. The Pros - he's got both experience as an NBA coach and as a player, and that would buy him extra cred in the locker room. He's also a defensive-minded coach that can do a lot with players not known for their D. The Cons - his offense is stagnant and not very imaginative. He's only made it out of the first round of the playoffs once, largely due to his offense and lack of in-game adjustments. He's been criticized for playing vets over younger players (only half-warranted), and eventually lost the locker room in Portland. The Verdict - not an especially imaginative hire, but probably the safest one. He could bring the D back to Detroit, but I don't think he could take us to the promised land without some help with the offense.
Stan Van Gundy - reg. season 371-208 (.641), playoffs 48-39 (.552) He's probably the name you'll hear second most, after McMillan. He's got more playoff experience and had more success than McMillan, but both of his coaching stints ended in controversy. He served as an assistant under Pat Riley before becoming the Heat's HC. The Pros - is a good coach offensively and defensively. He's creative and is able to adapt styles to fit the team. Orlando shouldn't have made the 2009 NBA Finals, given the talent they had. The Cons - every single frustration is written in his face, and he tends to overreact and whine during and after games. Shaq described him (aptly) as a "master of panic", meaning that when the going gets tough, SVG does not exude calm confidence. Never played above D-III in college, and he kinda looks like Ron Jeremy. The Verdict - he's less likable than McMillan but he's a better coach. He won't win the Big One until he learns to calm down a little on the sideline.
Scott Skiles - reg. season 443-433 (.506), playoffs 18-24 (.429) Skiles you'll hear less, and although he's a good coach, clearly a tier below the first 2 guys. Detroit would be his 4th HC stop, and he played at Michigan State, so he has some local ties. The Pros - he played in the NBA for 10 years and holds the single-game assists record. He's known as a bit of a disciplinarian, emphasizing hustle, defense, grit, and whatever synonyms you can think of for grit. He can extract the maximum production out of limited talent. The Cons - he's failed at managing player egos at every single stop. His style is abrasive and grates at the players. The Verdict - he could probably get the Pistons into the playoffs with their current lineup, but would achieve little more than that and eventually need to be replaced. Pass.
Mike Budenholzer - asst. coach, maybe reg. season 4-0 subbing for Pop Make no mistake, Budenholzer is the top assistant out there. He's been an assistant coach of the Spurs since the '96-'97 season and the number 1 assistant since 2007. The Pros - he's been going to the Popovich Coaching Clinic for about 16 years, and he knows his stuff. It's been said that Budenholzer knows the playbook better than Pop, and he also has shown an understanding of how to coach in-game. When Pop has to leave due to an ejection, there's no drop off. The Cons - little-to-no pro playing or HC experience. He played professionally in Denmark for a year and coached a couple of their minor league teams. The Verdict - he looks ready for a full-time HC job, a la Thibodeau. I hope the Pistons take him up on it.
To recap, my coaching candidate rankings are 1) Mike Budenholzer, 2) SVG, 3) McMillan, and distantly 4) Scott Skiles. Although guys like Kelvin Sampson and Patrick Ewing have interviewed for the job in the past, I don't see either of them as solid NBA coaches. Same with Brian Shaw. Another assistant that's gotten some buzz is the Bulls' Ron Adams. He might be ok, but he reminds me too much of Kuester.
The Pistons' NBA season is over (thank GOD). Thanks to an ill-timed winning streak, they went from probably picking 5th in the draft to a tie for 7th (coin flip pending). Instead of having a decent shot at one of the top 3 picks, they're down to a 3.55% shot at #1, a 4.1% chance at the second pick, and a 4.85% shot at #3. Instead of choosing between McLemore, Porter and Oladipo, the Pistons are stuck with hoping beyond hope that Oladipo slips, or settling for Muhammad (who I REALLY don't like), Bennett, or Gary Harris, if he declares. If he stays in school (which I think he probably will), it gets REALLY bleak.
There is a glimmer of a silver lining in all this. The last 10 games we got a preview of what Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe might do together. Over that stretch Monroe averaged about 18 & 10, shooting 52% from the field. Drummond averaged 11 & 8, shooting 67%. There were a lot of questions as to whether those 2 could play together, and it seems the answer is yes. Instead of clogging the paint, Monroe actually had more room to work because Drummond's defender couldn't abandon him for fear of THIS. Monroe had 5 double-doubles in the last 10 games and 4 games where he scored at least 23 points, the best of which being the Philly game.
In other Pistons news, Lawrence Frank has basically declared he's ready to move on by calling out the owner and possibly Dumars as well. They don't want to pick up his option for the 4th year, since he was out-coached in most of the games they played this year. Gores has been hinting that Frank's and possibly Dumars' heads were on the block, I think Frank eased his decision by committing NBA coaching seppuku.
I teased some Lions draft updates a couple days ago and then didn't make a post yesterday... well the wait is over. First was Kevin Seifert speculating on whether the Lions will draft for immediate impact this year or go their traditional BPA route. Some mock drafts have the Lions taking OT Lane Johnson if Joeckel and Fisher are both gone. Johnson is a bit of a project, and probably wouldn't be a plug-and-play starter.
Mel Kiper, on the other hand, released his ideal draft for every team and had the Lions trading up to #1 to take CB Dee Milliner. I think Kiper is crazy, and I'm not alone. He rounded out his "ideal" draft for the Lions by having them take DE Bjoern Werner in the 2nd round and WR Aaron Dobson in the 3rd. How exactly the Lions manage to trade up 4 spots while keeping their 2nd & 3rd rounds picks, Kiper doesn't specify. Personally I think there's no way the Lions trade up in this draft, but if they do it'll be to grab one of the OT's. I'd rather the Lions take Milliner over Johnson, since CB is still a need, but offensive line is the Lions' biggest need, and especially OT. This little tidbit was in ESPN's Rumors section:
One player who had been mentioned as a possible successor to Backus was 2012 first-round pick Riley Reiff. However, after spending a year with the Iowa product, the Lions now believe that Reiff's best fit is at RG, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
To recap, the Lions spent the 23rd pick of last draft on Jeff Backus's supposed successor, despite having greater need at CB (and a better player available in Janoris Jenkins). A year later they STILL need a successor to Jeff Backus, as well as a CB and a WR (despite spending their 2nd round pick on Broyles). 2012 was a terrible draft for Mayhew. He's in a better position this draft, but his own history is not on his side.
Quick Mayhew Draft Recap:
2012 the Lions went into the 3rd round before addressing their greatest area of need, while at the same time reaching for players like Reiff and Broyles
2011 the Lions grabbed up Fairley instead of Amukamara or any of the OL prospects who were available. This was ok, except then they drafted Titus Young in the 2nd and traded up to get Mikel Leshoure...
2010 they had a no-brainer with Suh at #2 overall, and then traded back into the 1st to roll the dice on Best, which clearly didn't pan out
2009 was the Matt Stafford draft, but the Lions also had the 18th pick in that draft which they used on... Brandon Pettigrew. Available were Michael Oher, Percy Harvin, Vontae Davis, Clay Matthews, Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt
Some of the mistakes Mayhew has made were not foreseeable, but most of them were. I'm getting nervous about this draft, especially since Mayhew hasn't put together a solid draft YET.
The Wings dropped ANOTHER game to Calgary (that's 0-3 against a team that's 17-22-4), breaking the tie with Columbus and dropping them one spot out of the playoffs. There are 5 games left to make it up, but they'll have to dig deep. This could be the first time the Wings miss the playoffs since 1990.
**Btw, the title to this post was NOT intended to be a pun, although I managed to unintentionally create a pun worthy of NHL.com***
My sister ran in the Boston Marathon yesterday. I was extremely proud, and I wanted to go to support her but a couple of extra expenses the past few months prevented that from happening. Still, both my parents went and I followed her progress online as her 5k splits were recorded. Her goal was to set a personal record of 3:26:00 or better. She was on pace to do so until her legs started cramping up with about 8 miles to go. She slowed significantly and even had to walk a couple of times down the stretch, but she managed to finish with a really good time.
I'd been texting with my mom, who was stationed about 2 blocks from the finish, trying to get more on-the-spot news. At 2:50-something, Mom and Dad were still looking for my sister. At 3:02, Mom texted me this:
Pray. A bomb or something big. People panicked.
It took about 14 more minutes before I got word that everyone in my family was ok and back together. It was a pretty freaky 14 minutes. I was praying for the safety of my family, for the other runners and spectators, and (naturally) wondering why the hell anyone would do something like this. I think my mom and dad were stationed at the corner of Fairfield and Boylston near the finish, not too far from where the second bomb went off, but weren't there when it did. Apparently the bombs were made with the intent to do damage to the greatest number of people, to maim and kill, and speculation is that the source is a domestic terrorist of some kind. I went through a gamut of emotions - fear, anger, sadness... I came to the realization that the Why Question is meaningless. Whether the person had a reason or not, whether he or she felt justified or not, the reality is that 3 innocent people are dead, many more will have to live the rest of their lives in a diminished capacity, and their families are all dealing with the aftermath. Unless done to directly protect someone, violence is just violence and there is no justification.
With that all running through my head, my wife and I went to the last Pistons home game this year. It was hard to get into a festive mood, but we managed. It was fan appreciation night, which meant that the event staff peppered the crowd with t-shirts, food and jersey giveaways, and a guy had a chance to make a 3/4 court shot for $1 million (he missed BADLY).
The game was decent. Monroe was good, so were Bynum and Singler. Stuckey and Knight spent a lot of time bouncing passes off the defense's arms (or directly into their hands), and both team's defense looked pretty lackadaisical. Drummond was ok but committed several dumb fouls (one of which he didn't actually commit) and fouled out with 5 points, 8 boards, a block and 2 steals.
I fell into a state of cognitive dissonance in that I'm glad I saw a win, but upset that the Pistons won and hurt their draft lottery chances (falling out of the #5 spot into a tie at #7 in the last couple games). Their best case scenario is now losing their last game and Washington and Sacramento winning theirs, putting Detroit at a tie for #6. Gores isn't happy about the season, and reading into his quotes, people suspect a head or two may roll.
There's some NFL Draft and Lions news, but I'll get to that tomorrow. Take care of yourselves.
The Tigers game started promptly at 3:35, merely 2 1/2 hours after it was scheduled to start. It was cold (colder than it was on my 5:30 run that morning) and rainy (rainier than it was on my 5:30 run). Feeling confident about the weather, I ignored my wife's advice to wear a warmer coat and stuck with the wind breaker. Whoops. My teeth chattered practically the whole time (we got there about 12:30pm, game ended at about 7:12pm).
About the actual game - started good, ended bad. The Tigers had a 5 run lead until the 6th & 7th innings happened. Porcello started to fall off in the 6th, then Downs was iffy, and then... Brayan Villareal. Ugh.
Porcello was great until he gave up 3 straight hits in the 6th. Downs was rocky but settled down. We saw Villareal warming up and asked "WHY???" He was pretty bad his last outing. Counting yesterday, his past couple of outings he's given up a total of 8 earned runs on 4 hits and 5 walks in 2/3 of an inning. Detroit's relief staff is worst in the league, Villareal is a big reason why.
The Tigers got shut down the rest of the game, helped in the 9th by an ump who wanted the game to be over. THIS was strike three???
Not a great angle, but it's pretty clear the ball is low and Arencibia is setting up away. Victor Martinez also struck out on a couple of BAD calls. Not to say that the Tigers win if the ump makes the right calls, but the way it went they had no shot.
I caught some of the Pistons game on the ride home. They hurt their draft position a little by beating Cleveland, but the Drummond-Monroe tandem looked REALLY good.
Drummond did a great job of finding a passing lane in tight spaces, and Monroe did a great job of finding him for dunks. It cracks me up how surprised the color guy is in the above clip that Drummond dunks a lot. Must not have watched much basketball this year.
Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and NFL.com all put out new NFL mock drafts. Kiper had the Lions taking Dee Milliner in the 1st and Bjoern Werner in the second, and NFL.com's guy had them taking Eric Fisher with the #5 pick. McShay did a scenario-mock draft, where he examined 3 different ways the draft might go and who the Lions would take in each scenario. Here they are, in order of which scenario is most ideal for Detroit:
This really isn't anything new. Since Backus retired and Cherilus signed with Indianapolis, the Lions are bringing back 0 of last year's starting tackles. They need an OT. I've been high on Milliner all year. Less so with Ansah, but he's the popular DE pick that high in the draft. I still have my doubts about using such a high pick on a guy with as many unknowns as Ziggy, but we'll see. The Fisher pick looks pretty likely though.
I'm heading off into the fog to watch the Tigers take on Toronto this afternoon. I got rained on during my AM run today, so I was a bit nervous about the game. Weather sites are predicting rain, but I'm optimistic. I know Detroit, and major storm systems tend to slide us by (knock on wood).
I don't have the animated version of this, but it looks like it's moving north through Port Huron and the Thumb, and Detroit gets only a little bit of the tail end of this storm. This is what usually happens, and Sarnia and Barrie catches the worst of it.
The Tigers THUMPED Toronto 7-3 yesterday. I was following the game on Gamecast and saw this:
2 outs, Jackson singled and Torii Hunter doubled. Then Cabrera happened. I still have my doubts about the Tigers' 'pen, but I like this lineup 100% more than last year's, and I like the defense about 50% more than last year's.
The Pistons take on Cleveland tonight in what should be a tank-fest team vs. a team that should be tanking but isn't match-up. Cleveland had something like a 20 point lead over Indiana in the 4th last night & blew it. Kyrie Irving probably isn't playing tonight, so unless the worst versions of Brandon Knight, Stuckey AND Monroe all show up simultaneously, this should be a Piston win. Dang.
Zach Lowe, who I've mentioned before is a certified NBA nerd, wrote an article about the evolution of defenses in the NBA. The way he describes current the NBA defensive trend is kind of like a zone running on AI. By this I mean the players follow the rules of a zone except when situation & personnel dictate otherwise. I feel like I'd be great in that systems, you know, if I were 6'8" and had a jump shot. That's all for me today. PEACE!
I was understandably disappointed in last night's game. Michigan came out firing, and then their defense fell apart. They never really got their feet back under them after Hancock hit those 4 threes. Spike Albrecht (who I thought should've gotten more minutes in the Syracuse game) gave Michigan something they didn't really know they had. Hancock gave Louisville something they DID know they had & could win with.
Michigan never really came back. Hancock's threes seemed to break apart Michigan's D. They weren't playing bad defense before, but it got progressively worse with each dagger Luke Hancock buried. Look at the last 3 in the clip - Jordan Morgan (reputedly a good defender) showed for about half a second, then turned his back on him for some reason and ran into LeVert, who was trying to recover. Why did Morgan switch back there? I will probably never know.
I thought the officiating was terrible both ways but probably affected Michigan a little more than Louisville. A lot of that is on Michigan's players & coach, who I think played & coached in a way that the officiating hurt them more. Still, Burke's 2nd foul (which led to Beilein removing Burke for the last 11 minutes of the 1st half) was a REALLY bad call, and somehow this became Burke's 4th foul:
I can't dunk (not a basketball at least), so I've never pinned a shot against the backboard. I HAVE swatted layups off the backboard though, and few things on the court are more satisfying. The fact that this was called a foul is a damn shame.
*(not-so)Quick Personal Story - watching that block brought me back to possibly the height of my playing days at MSU's IM West building. I was 21 and living on campus, though I wasn't a student. A couple days a week, between 2-4 of my roommates (who WERE students) and I would head over to IM West (which was easy for a non-student such as myself to get into) & run 5-on-5 full court for an hour or two. We were pretty good. I remember more than a couple of times we won a bunch in a row and held the court for over an hour.
One of the those times, there was a similar group of 5 guys that we played a couple of times & beat down. They had one player that was kind of a jerk. He was about 6 ft, maybe a little under that, had a decent handle and a decent shot. He thought he was all-world, called a lot of weak fouls, and tended to complain about how we were playing (either we were dirty, getting lucky, whatever). The kind of player his own teammates would apologize on behalf of.
Anyway, we were in a tight game & this guy was bringing the ball up on a semi-fast break. I was trailing on his left, but not by much. He took the ball left for a layup and decided to shoot it with his left (I can't remember if he was lefty or righty). That was a mistake. He slowed down to take the layup, allowing me to catch up. When he let go of the ball, I took off, swatted it against the backboard, and got the rebound. Then I fed it up to our PG and we started our own semi-fast break.
I'm mainly a defensive player, but occasionally my shot is there and I contribute both ways. I've had some pretty sweet blocks, but that one still tops the list, especially since the guy I blocked needed to be taken down a peg or 2. If he had tried to call foul I might've punched him, so I can only imagine what Trey Burke was feeling when the ref blew the whistle.
Back to the game. I really thought the difference in the game was Michigan's defense falling apart (starting with Hancock going off), Behanan & Dieng on the offensive glass, and Trey Burke only playing 26 minutes. I thought Beilein was out-coached for the first time in the tournament, and that's saying something. He went up against Shaka Smart, Bill Self, Billy Donovan, and Jim Boeheim and held his own. Pitino took him to school though.
Now that the tournament is over, Chad Ford has come out with his first mock draft. Assuming that all the teams pick as they are currently ranked (which almost never happens), the Pistons would pick 5th. With McLemore and Porter off the board, Ford has the Pistons taking Victor Oladipo. This is not a surprise, and they'd be glad to have him.
Other players of note - since underclassmen haven't declared whether or not they're going into the draft, Ford assumed all of them are in. As such, he's got Burke going to New Orleans at #6, Gary Harris at #10 to Minnesota, Mitch McGary at #12 to Portland, and Glenn Robinson III at #15 to Milwaukee. Also of note, he has Glen Rice Jr. (playing in the D-league since being dismissed from GA Tech) going 28th to the Thunder. Glen Rice Jr. is averaging 17.6 ppg (42% from three), so he appears at least to have his dad's shot (he has a younger brother named "G'mitri", so he's also fortunate to have been born first). The Lions have added Jason Hanson to the "Ring of Honor", which is well-deserved. He also decided to go out in a much classier way than Barry did, which shouldn't be a surprise either. For the draft, the Lions have invited Dee Milliner to Allen Park, and now Chance Warmack. They could be thinking taking the OG in the first round, but #5 is a pretty high pick to use on a guard. Still, NFL.com gives him the highest grade of any player in the draft, and the Lions need a guard as well as a tackle.
I'm feeling a little into the "personal story" thing right now, so I'm going to go back to the pick-up game I played in this past Saturday & indulge myself a little. We play in the upstairs of a church. It's about 1/2 court length, but there are 2 hoops (slightly low, maybe an inch or 2). We play 4-on-4, every shot is worth one, win by 2 to 7 pts, sudden death to 9 pts. It's not exactly Rucker park, but it's competitive and there are a number of guys who can really ball. I ended up on a team with three younger guys, I'd put them at 16-22 years young. All shorter than me but more athletic (a couple of them dunk). I'd missed the last couple of months due to being out of town or prior commitments, but since I've been running I've felt more springy in my legs. Being the biggest and the strongest, I ended up guarding the other team's biggest guy (one of whom was probably 3-4 inches taller & 90 lbs heavier). I kind of put on a defensive clinic. I only took one shot (off a put-back, they never passed to me), which I made, but I made my presence felt on defense. One of the teams had 2 guys that were significantly taller than me, so I spent a lot of time covering 1.5 guys at the same time, plus switching out onto the perimeter a couple of times. I wasn't exactly Scottie Pippen, but I played about as close as I can get to him. It was fun. Anyway, enough of the glory days of last Saturday. The Tigers are taking on the most overrated team in baseball right now, Toronto. I'm going to the game tomorrow afternoon, which unfortunately doesn't feature a prime pitching match up, but hopefully that means that the Tigers' lineup can tee off.
It went about as I expected, maybe a little better. I expected Michigan's shooters to find holes in the zone. Beilein used McGary at the FT line as a facilitator, much in the same way the Pistons tried to use Greg Monroe before trading for Calderon. It worked better for Michigan because a) Syracuse's defense didn't collapse on McGary to force a turnover because b) Michigan has better perimeter shooters who c) Knocked down shots. McGary finished with 10 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists to go with 2 blocks. His precisionpassing broke the game open for Michigan & caused Clark Kellogg to invoke the name of Magic Johnson.
Actually, that no-look pass was part of an amazing sequence for Michigan. Coming out of a TV timeout (there were a TON of those), McGary made that pass & the place started buzzing. I should mention it was a very pro-Michigan crowd, noticed that early on. Anyway, 'Cuse missed their shot, Michigan rebounded it and started pushing up the floor. Burke, always on the lookout, heaved a long alley-oop pass to Glenn Robinson III. At the time I thought it would've brought the house down while simultaneously sticking a knife in Syracuse. Instead it just challenged Oladipo for Best Missed Dunk of the College Season (it's a shame I can't find video of that missed GR3 'oop anywhere). Burke, probably pissed because that last play didn't work out, got a steal and again pushed it up court. That time Syracuse's D got back & had Burke hemmed in, but not McGary. Big flush and Boeheim was forced to call a timeout.
Jordan Morgan has been one of those players you just don't like, kind of how Ryan Raburn was for the Tigers. Morgan is an unskilled big man. He's out there for his D and rebounding, expect neither are that great, and his offense leave much to be desired. Well, he kind of had a couple "hero moments" last night. This was doubly key, because the charging call on Triche was his 5th foul. Michael Carter-Williams had already fouled out, and after Triche there weren't any good ball-handlers on Syracuse's bench. Boeheim drew up a play that I was confused by (much as I was confused by Bill Self's final play in the Kansas game), Hardaway made a great play & Morgan got the last 2 points in the game.
On sort of a side note, I didn't like the studio crew's complaining about the officiating at the end of the game. I thought the refs were ok, not great. I thought MCW's 4th foul was a flop on his part. At the time, Clark Kellogg said it should've been charging. I thought probably a no-call, but didn't mind MCW getting penalized for flopping. His 5th foul was definitely a foul. Triche's 5th was DEFINITELY charging, no matter what Barkley says. I suspect the studio guys are advised in part to drum up controversy.
Anyway, I was understandably ecstatic about the final result of that game & can't wait for the Louisville game tonight. I was thinking about it & this game makes a set for Michigan. They faced VCU's "Havoc Defense", Kansas's defense, Florida's defense, Syracuse's 2-3 zone, and now Louisville's vaunted press defense. That's the 5 most talked about defenses in the tournament, 4 or which have fallen to Michigan's offense. One to go.
ESPN wrote an article about the McGary-Dieng match-up being key to whoever wins this game. I'm going to disagree a little. McGary's success is important for Michigan, obviously, but I think Beilein's strategy for this game will be to use more screens and for McGary to get his points mainly off of offensive rebounds. Rebounding and beating the press are key. Spike Albrecht has had a wonderful tournament (I kept yelling for Beilein to put him in when Michigan went cold in the 2nd half), he'll have to play big minutes. I'm hoping Burke's speed & ball-handling can put Russ Smith & Siva in foul trouble, and Michigan's D has to keep them out of the lane.
Moving on to hockey (because I rarely talk about the Wings unless it's the playoffs), I caught much of one of the most entertaining games this season. I was on my way to see a movie and caught a sequence where 3 goals were scored in less than 4 minutes. Saw my movie (Die Hard 5, not that good, even for $2.50), and came out to hear the end of the 3rd period. Colorado had tied the score, the clock was winding down, and this happened:
The Pistons beat Chicago last night and are now probably looking at the number 7 pick instead of the number 5 pick in the draft. On a lighter note, they're playing better... right when we don't need them to be. I hope they lose their next 2 before stomping Philly when we go to see them next week, that's all.
The Tigers won 2 out of 3 against the Yankees this weekend, oddly enough losing the Verlander game 7-0. So that's weird... Jason Hanson retired. This kind of deserves its own post, but there's too much going on right now. Anyway, sad day for Lions fans. They're replacing him with David Akers, who's a solid kicker despite kind of stinking up the place last year. Akers is probably a little less accurate than Hanson (but close), but with a bit more distance on his kicks. He dinked in a 63-yarder off the crossbar last year vs. Green Bay, tying the NFL record. The Lions are hoping his accuracy improves back to the mean, and kicking in Ford Field should help.
It's looking more and more like the Lions could be targeting Dee Milliner with the #5 pick if both top OT's are off the board. I'm ok with this since I'm not crazy about the DE options that high in the draft. Ziggy Ansah is intriguing, but if I'm Martin Mayhew (funny Freudian slip - I accidentally typed "Mayhem" at first) and I'm going for a project at DE, I prefer Margus Hunt in the 2nd round.
I'm going to start out today with a Final Four preview, then cut to a bit on the NBA draft & the Pistons...
First, the match-ups: PG - Trey Burke vs. Michael Carter-Williams Both are NBA prospects projected to go in the top 15 picks. One is 6'1" (maybe), the other is 6'6". Burke is definitely more dangerous with his shot, I'd say they're about the same in passing, and MCW has maybe a slight edge in defense, although he's weaker against quicker players. Despite the size disadvantage, I think Burke's swipe move will have success against MCW. Edge - Michigan. SG - Nick Stauskas vs. Brandon Triche Stauskas had been practically dormant all tournament until coming alive against Florida, hitting 6 of 6 threes. He has begun to show another side of his game, putting the ball on the floor and finishing his layups well. Triche is shorter but more athletic. Call this one a draw. SF - Tim Hardaway Jr. vs. James Southerland Hardaway Jr. gives up a little size in this match-up, not to mention his shot hasn't been there since the first game of the tourney. If that notoriously streaky shot reappears, Hardaway murders this match-up. If not... Slight edge - Syracuse. PF - Glenn Robinson III vs. CJ Fair GR3 has been one of Michigan's breakout performers in the tournament, drawing first round murmurs for the upcoming draft (went with "murmurs" instead of "buzz", hope you like). CJ Fair is Syracuse's leading scorer and one of the few that can match GR3's athleticism, not to mention he owns (wait for it) a size advantage over Robinson (notice a theme?). Given Robinson's penchant for disappearing in games, edge - Syracuse. C - Mitch McGary vs. Lloyd... I mean Rakeem Christmas McGary is Michigan's other breakout star, and he's been a revelation. Giving Michigan an inside presence and rebounding that wasn't there before, he's made them a more versatile team. His PnR game will be key to breaking down the Orange defense. Christmas is basically Syracuse's version of Jordan Morgan. Nuff said, edge - Michigan (and it isn't close). Bench - Albrecht/Horford/Morgan/LeVert vs. Grant/Cooney/Keita Syracuse has basically played with a 3-man bench this tournament since DaJuan Coleman is apparently still hampered by his knee surgery. Albrecht has played big minutes the last 3 games and is better than anyone on 'Cuse's bench. Keita is probably the best the Orange have, and he is also a Jordan Morgan clone. Edge - Michigan. Coaching - John Beilein vs. Jim Boeheim I've often wondered about Beilein's coaching ability, but he's pulled out a few things this tournament that eased my concerns. Boeheim is a legend and his morphing 2-3 zone defense is practically mythical. I wonder though... I think Beilein will find a way to break it, then what will Boeheim do? At this point, it's a draw.
I'm not going to make a prediction on the game because a) I'm super biased, and b) I'm somewhat superstitious. I will say this - I think Michigan will find a way to beat that crushing zone that wilted Indiana and Marquette. Will the good version of Michigan's D show up? Will Tim Hardaway Jr.'s shot make a well-timed reappearance? I certainly hope so.
Ok, SMOOTHLY transitioning to NBA prospects that have been already knocked out of the tournament, I was recently taking a look at Shabazz Muhammad. Currently the Pistons are in the #5 draft spot, but it's tight & a weaker remaining schedule could mean they slide back a couple picks. ESPN's NBA Mock Draft generator has the Pistons' draft board with McLemore at the top, then Porter, then Oladipo. If they fall out of the top 5 or 6 picks, it has them taking Muhammad over Burke (based off of Chad Forde's information, which has a history of being accurate on the Pistons).
I don't like Shabazz Muhammad. I don't like his game, I don't like his attitude. And there are several things that make me think he's not going to produce up to expectations. Before I bias you any further, here's his scouting video (it's a might long):
Ok, you've seen the good, the bad, and the ugly. Now MY concerns are as follows -
A lot of the attention he's gotten has been based on his HS hype, and it turns out he was a year older than the guys he was playing against (the age thing is a big deal, btw)
Reports of Muhammad's athleticism have been greatly exaggerated. He doesn't dunk in traffic or from a standing position, he doesn't blow by defenders, and despite a 6'11" wingspan, he doesn't block many shots (4 total on the season)
He's a black hole. Doesn't like to let go of the ball once it touches his hands. Don't like that either
Lastly, his shooting fell off considerably as the season went on. This deserves its own section, so...
Early in the college basketball season, Muhammad was praised as the top scorer in the country. He was scoring the most points, shooting over 50% from the field and NEARLY 50% from 3, albeit in a smallish sample-size. Well, that didn't stick.
In Shabazz's first 10 games he shot .500 FG% on 136 attempts and .483 3PT% on 29 attempts, highlighted by a couple of 27 point games in a row against Fresno State and Missouri
In his next 10 games his FG% fell to .423 and his 3PT% slipped to .382. He had some ok games in that stretch, but the Utah and Oregon games were pretty bad
The final 12 games reflected more of what I think we'll see at the NBA level - a volume shooter with no shame. His FG% fell again to .415 and his 3PT% fell way below college average to .302
The worst game of that last stretch was undoubtedly the Washington State game, where he shot 4-19 in the game and 2-11 from 3. Wow. Also, his last 3 games combined he shot 15-52 (.288 FG%) and 0-9 from 3 (that's, uh, .000 3PT%)
Muhammad went from being an unsustainably efficient scorer in his first 10 games with a .602 True Shooting%, to a very-sustainably INefficient scorer his final 22 games. The 2nd 10 games - .509 TS%, final 12 games - .501 TS%. For reference, the top 24 SG's in the league shoot above a .55 TS%, as do the top 24 SF's. Give me Burke over this guy, PLEASE.
Pistonpowered.com posted some news about Lawrence Frank potentially taking over the HC job at Rutgers. My heart skipped a beat at that, I must admit. I'm not a fan of Dumars firing yet another coach, but Frank hasn't been great in Detroit, it must be said. I think him taking a job to be closer to his wife (who is seriously ill with something, we don't know what) would be best for everyone.
Finally, the Tigers' offense woke up vs. the Yankees this afternoon, Prince Fielder mashing 2 HR's, and going on to win 8-3. Fister wasn't sharp, but he was good enough to win.
Enjoy the weekend, good luck to Michigan in the Final Four!
I was pretty upset with the Tigers yesterday. Not particularly surprised, but upset. Two of their bigger problems last year were hitting against "junk-ball" pitchers (that would be pitchers who pitch to contact & try to induce weak ground ball outs) and their bullpen had a tendency to give games away. Both of those problems resurfaced yesterday in the loss to the Twins.
Sanchez was great, allowing 5 baserunners in 5 innings, no runs and striking out 5. Then Downs came in, pitched one good inning, but he walked a guy the next inning. Villareal came next with a man on. The man on first stole second, then scored when Villareal gave up a double to Wilkin Ramirez (yes, THAT Wilkin Ramirez). So the Tigers' lead was cut to 2-1. I should mention that during all this that the Tigers' potent offense was reduced to slapping singles and grounding out weakly.
Anyway, Benoit came in to be the bridge to Coke. He walked the only guy he faced. Coke came on, and the wheels came off. He got one out, the next guy got a single (moving the tying run to third), and then Eduardo Escobar (yes, THAT Eduardo Escobar) hit what SHOULD have been a game-tying sac fly, except Dirks lost it in the sun, 2 runs came in and somehow the official game scorer ruled it a double.
Anyway, the Tigers must have been concerned, because they went out and signed Jose Valverde to a minor league deal. I'd be concerned too. Before today Tiger starters had given up 0 runs, relievers had given up 5. Porcello has changed that, giving up 3. Not wanting to be out-done, Villareal has given up 5 more. It's not pretty.
The Pistons nearly eked out a win yesterday, despite not having Calderon in the game. They remain on pace to finish 5th worst in the league, which would be better news if this were a better draft.
The game was highlighted by this little chestnut from Brandon Knight:
I like Brandon Knight (not as a PG though), but I'm wondering if his career is going to be some kind of embodiment of the Washington Generals. This concerns me
