Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Michigan still #2 & an answer for Drummond's offense?

First off, even though I didn't watch it (wife & I had a FPU course at church, and I don't have cable), it's obligatory that I mention U of M's big win over OSU. Coming of the disappointing Indiana loss, Michigan had to get back up. They traded punches with the Buckeyes & came out on top in OT. I don't think OSU should lose ground in the NCAA rankings (they should gain, if anything) and I don't think Michigan deserved to move up a spot either.

The last 2 games have shown that Michigan is a REALLY good team that still needs to figure some things out, mainly rebounding and defense. Also, Michigan's offense really got bailed out by Hardaway getting red hot from distance. When that's not there, Michigan has to do a better job of breaking down good defenses like OSU (Craft is insanely good, btw). At Wisconsin on Saturday, then at MSU next Tuesday. It doesn't stop. Wisconsin will be particularly interesting, since they are 11th in points allowed per game in the NCAA (although this is largely a product of their slow pace, since their FG% allowed is middle of the Big Ten pack).

Anyway, moving on to what I REALLY want to talk about. At this point in the NBA season it's become clear that super raw/young/athletic rookie Andre Drummond has the best potential of anyone on the Pistons to become an NBA star. ESPN recently had an insider article proclaiming Drummond's closest comparison to be Shaq. I thought WHOA, slow down a sec. Shaq averaged 23 & 14 his rookie season (only a year older than Drummond), all while carrying his team's offense and defense. Drummond is fun to watch and a beast athletically speaking (an edge he has on Shaq, actually), but his offensive game leaves much to be desired. 
From Kevin Pelton's ESPN Insider article "Andre Drummond the next Shaq?", showing all three players' rookie numbers (Drummond's through 46 games)
The usage rate (% of plays a player used while on the court) indicates that Shaq was getting his number called while Drummond and Howard were/are more cogs in the offense than creators. Drummond's defensive numbers (Reb%, Blk%) compare favorably to Shaq's, which is good, since Shaq never led the league in rebounding or blocks. Unfortunately I think the offensive numbers can be a bit misleading. Check Drummond's shot chart for the season (from vorped.com):
Drummond has made exactly 2 shots outside of the painted area (one of which was a trey, which I assume was EXTREME luck). That green area under the hoop is where his 'oops, tip ins, bunnies and gimme dunks all come in. One thing that is simultaneously a complaint AND a praise of Drummond is "all he does is dunk". Great, it's a very high percentage shot. But he misses a ton of tip ins, otherwise he'd be shooting like 90% under the basket. And the latest Knicks game showed why he needs something other than PnR dunks in his offensive arsenal. The Knicks have a good defensive big that kept Monroe & Drummond out of the lane. That pretty much shut the Pistons out in the 1st quarter. He needs a few moves that can be effective as far as 8 feet out (for now).

All this gets me to something I noticed in Monday night's game. At some point either Blaha or Greg Kelser mentioned that Amar'e Stoudamire had worked out with Hakeem Olajuwon in the off season, put up a graphic of all the players who have done so, and said Amar'e gives a lot of credit to Hakeem for helping out his game. Stoudamire's numbers were dropping, and he had a particularly bad year last year. Since then his FG% jumped from .483 last year to .584 this year and his PER went from 17.73 last year to 22.74 this year (*insert obligatory PED disclaimer here). That's Amir Johnson suddenly turning into Kobe (although to be fair, Amar'e's PER was always around 20-22 before last year). 

Then I looked at all the other players who've gone to Hakeem. Kobe, Lebron, Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee (?!), and Kenneth Faried, for example. Then I though "this has to happen for Drummond in the next year or two". He needs to learn how to hit at least 50% of his FT's, he needs to work on an 8ft jumper and basic footwork, and then he needs to go to Camp Hakeem. I'll be upset if this doesn't happen in the next couple years, Pistons should send both Monroe and Drummond. Actually, Monroe should go NOW. Chandler is probably the best defensive center in the league (apologies to Noah, but he is), but he completely OWNED Greg Monroe in the post the other night. Whatever moves Monroe has, Chandler has weighed them, measured them, and found them wanting.
Yes, that's a Knight's Tale reference. I make no apologies.
 

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