Round 1 is in!

The first round of the NFL draft was pretty crazy, with three trades that netted 3 QBs way before anyone thought they'd go. The Lions, like last year, were boringly predictable. That's actually a good thing. A GM will often want to appear like the smartest guy in the room and grab a risky pick, or someone off the board. Sometimes that works out, but usually the best player to take is pretty obvious. Last year, the obvious pick was the tackle out of OSU, Taylor Decker. That has worked out pretty well so far.

Based on the nature of the draft, you tend to see a highly rated prospect falling for some reason and hope he's still there when your team picks. Johnathan Allen dropped some, but I had no expectation that he'd still be available when the Lions picked at 21, and sure enough, Allen went off the board at #17. But Reuben Foster, the LB out of Alabama, was in a free fall due to some character concerns at the Combine. Linebacker was probably the Lions' most dire need... did they make the right choice?

               

Jarrad Davis, LB Florida                                     Reuben Foster, LB Alabama
6'1", 238 lbs, 4.61 40-yd dash                                     6'0", 229 lbs, 4.64 40-yd dash
2016: 9 gm, 60 tkl, 6 TFL, 2 sacks, 4 PD                 2016: 15 gm, 115 tkl, 13 TFL, 5 sacks, 2 PD

2015: 14 gm, 94 tkl, 11 TFL, 3.5 sacks,                     2015: 15 gm, 73 tkl, 8 TFL, 1 sack, 7 PD
1 INT, 4 PD, 1 FF

Davis - Pros: So, right off you should notice that Davis only played in 9 games last season, and we'll get to that. He can tackle, he can get to the QB, he's fast, and he's not bad in coverage. Everyone loves his character and he's a leader on the defense, which should not be understated. And he can either play either the MIKE (middle LB) or WILL (weakside LB) positions in the Lions' defense.
Foster - Pros: He won the Bednarik Award for best LB in college football, so Foster is pretty good. He's fast, he's a big hitter, and he's got that Alabama pedigree. He's also great in coverage, which the Lions really need at the LB position.

Davis - Cons: The injuries. Davis missed the end of his 2014 season with an MCL tear, and then this past year he missed several games and then tried to play through an ankle injury. Ankle sprains can become a chronic issue, but they aren't as catastrophic to a player's career as a knee injury can be. Still, Davis has missed a lot of games over the past 3 years. Football-wise, he's not terrific in coverage, but it's not a huge area of concern.
Foster - Cons: The issue with Foster, and the reason he wasn't taken in the top 15 or so, was character concerns. He tested positive for a "diluted sample" during his drug test, which could just be over-hydrating, or it could be a cause for concern. The problem is that he's now on level 1 of the NFL's drug discipline, meaning another positive test would be a 4-game suspension. He also had a "heated exchange" with hospital staff at the Combine, causing him to get kicked out. Aside from the character concerns, Foster has had some stinger issues due to poor tackling technique, and he had rotator cuff surgery this offseason.

The Verdict: Reuben Foster is probably maybe the better football player. Possibly. But he has a tendency to just drop his shoulder and go for the big hit instead of wrapping up. He's a really good player, but he's not flawless, and the stuff at the combine raised some eyebrows. I'd prefer the Lions had drafted him, because I think he's a bit better than Jarrad Davis, but...

Jarrad Davis is really good. He might actually be a better fit for the Lions than Foster, given that he projects as a middle linebacker (the Lions' current MLB, Tahir Whitehead, graded out as the 2nd-worst starting LB in football by PFF) and has leadership qualities that Foster does not possess. He didn't grade out as quite the coverage guy that Foster is, but Davis made some pretty nice plays in downfield coverage. If he can find the ball in the air like that on a consistent basis, he's going to be just fine in coverage.

***

Moving on, the Lions have the 53rd and 85th picks today, which correspond to the 21st pick in the 3rd & 4th rounds, respectively. They still have needs on defense - a DE who can get to the QB, a CB who can cover, S, and DT. They also have needs on offense - RB, a downfield threat at WR, and possibly TE as well. So, who's out there?
2nd - Joe Mixon - RB, Oklahoma: This is the name a lot of fans are saying. In fact, many wanted us to take him in the first round. By all accounts, he's the best RB in the entire draft. He can split out as a receiver (538 receiving yards) or do damage on the ground (1,274 yds rushing). He's a perfect RB for this era, except for his anger issues, which might end up getting him suspended for life at some point.

2nd - Malik McDowell - DT, Michigan State: He didn't have the greatest year, but much of that can be attributed to how poorly MSU played. He was playing great until the Ls started to stack up, and then he apparently lost interest and his play declined. That doesn't bode well if that attitude continues, but if you can fix it, he might be the best DT in the draft.
2nd - Jourdan Lewis - CB, Michigan: He doesn't have elite size or speed, but he's one of the best coverage corners in the draft. He does have a pending domestic issue with his girlfriend that hasn't been resolved yet, which bears watching.
2nd - Obi Meliwonfu - S, UConn: Obi is the most physically imposing safety I've ever seen. He's HUGE for the position at 6'4", 224 lbs, and tremendously gifted athletically (4.40 40-yd dash, 44" vertical). He's not as good in coverage as you might like, but the Lions can afford to develop him for a year. I think he can play.
2nd/3rd - DeMarcus Walker - DE, Florida State: It would be a stretch to expect him to be waiting for the Lions to pick him up with the 85th pick, but it's a big of an over reach to grab him with the 53rd pick. Walker had some gaudy sack totals, but he doesn't possess elite speed off the edge. He might be more of a 3-4 DE, which is why I'd hesitate to take him in round 2 but not round 3.
3rd - Samaje Perine - RB, Oklahoma State: If the Lions go defense again in round 2, they could get a nice short-yardage back in Perine in round 3, if he's there. Sam Perine doesn't have much top end speed, but he's quick enough between the tackles, and man does he move the pile. Check the tape.

3rd - Jordan Leggett - TE, Clemson: Leggett was one of the top TEs in college football last year. He's big and athletic, and would be a nice target for Stafford, but he needs work in both the receiving and blocking facets of the game.

3rd - Ahkello Witherspoon - CB, Colorado: He's got elite size and near-elite speed, but the production isn't quite there. At least not with tackles and INTs. His 19 knockdowns is a massively impressive stat, but he needs to add muscle and be a more willing tackler. By round 3 though, you aren't getting a complete product.

We'll see what direction Bob Quinn takes, but the Lions should end up with 1 or 2 more starters by the end of the night.

Mocks Galore!

The NFL Draft is just over a couple of weeks away, and there are a lot of mock drafts out there. A LOT. So, I thought I'd do a Lions-centric mock draft roundup! Yay!

First, NFL.com has a number of different guys that do mocks. The best is Mike Mayock, but he doesn't do his until the day of or the day before the draft. The latest is Bucky Brooks, who mocked Florida LB Jarrad Davis to the Lions on April 11th. 

On the other hand, Daniel Jeremiah mocked yet another non-blocking TE (Miami's David Njoku) with less than great hands on 4/4. This would be my nightmare scenario. Willis is an OLB who would probably convert to DE in our system, and Harris is a perfect fit. I'd be fine with either of them.

CBS Sports has a TON of mocks, so let's get cracking.

Both Rob Rang and Ryan Wilson mocked Temple OLB Haason Reddick to Detroit, so we'll look at him first. He's an incredible athlete, although a bit undersized. I think he played more of a 3-4 pass rushing OLB at Temple, but he can cover as well and his frame isn't really big enough to do that on an NFL level. He'd be better suited to run as an OLB in Detroit's 4-3 system. Not an ideal fit, but not bad either.

Dan Brugler mocked us TJ Watt and I LOVE this pick. Watt is the younger brother of current NFL great JJ Watt, who is easily the best defensive player in the league. TJ is no slouch either, having notched 11.5 sacks, a pick-6, and wreaked havoc last season. He'd play DE in our system and be GOOD at it.

Pete Prisco picked Charles Harris, who I mentioned before but is worth going into further. He's close to ideal size. Not a terrific athlete, but not bad either, and his production last year was pretty good. I've brought him up before as a possibility for the Lions.

I'm not a fan of Will Brinson's Jabrill Peppers pick, and I'll tell you why. Peppers isn't great in coverage. He's more like an LB, but he would need to add 30 lbs of muscle, and that's not happening. He'd make an instant impact in the return game and could be a multi-purpose back out of the backfield on offense, but that's not a player I'm taking in round 1. I'm much more a fan of Jared Dubin's Taco Charlton pick. Charlton is a DE, a bigtime need, and a good one. I didn't include him in my Draft preview earlier because he was slotted a lot higher than he is now. The draft is weird this way, that a guy can move up & down in a couple of months without anything actually happening. Anyway, Taco possesses ideal size for a DE and had great production last season. Get him.

The Ringer mocked my ideal pick, or near enough. I'd pretty much be in favor of any defensive player, if he's a fit. But I've had my eye on Marlon Humphrey for a while.

Humphrey has ideal size and speed for an NFL CB. He hits RBs and has solid coverage skills. He's shown susceptibility to getting beaten on the long ball, so it might be better to run more zone with him, or help him out with a safety over the top if he's covering a burner. I'm not crazy about the long-ball issues, but you can't get a perfect CB with the 21st pick. He's as close as we're gonna get. Unless one of the big names drops to us for some weird reason, Humphrey is at the top of my list.

SI's Chris Burke also likes Haason Reddick for the Lions, which makes 3 mock drafters on 2 different sites and leads me to believe that maybe they know something the rest of us don't. Fox Sports picked Humphrey for us, which obviously I like. At this point we're getting a lot of repeats, so I'll move on to something we haven't heard before.

Todd McShay does so many mocks that he could legitimately have mocked half the players in the first round to a particular team. He and Kiper did a back & forth mock in which Kiper tabbed Charles Harris to the Lions and Kiper picked Takkarist McKinley. McKinley and Harris are similar in a lot of ways. Both are borderline 3-4 OLB/4-3 DEs. Both had pretty good numbers last year, with McKinley getting 18 TFL and 10 sacks, Harris getting 12 TFL and 9 sacks. But McKinley grades out as a slightly better athlete (4.59 40-yd dash to Harris' 4.82), and McKinley had SLIGHTLY better numbers last year. Some scouts think Harris' drop in production from 18.5 TFL his sophomore year to 12 last year was due to scheme & coaching. Personally, I like Harris a little better. He's a year younger, and his production is a little more convincing - 2 yrs of quality production as a soph & junior vs. McKinley's 1 yr as a senior. But McKinley wouldn't be a horrible pick.

A semi-useful article from SB Nation did a poll of the existing mocks and made pie charts for each team and which players are being mocked to them. Essentially, it's a compilation of all the mocks out there.

I say "semi-useful" because the largest section of the pie is the "Others" category, which doesn't help a whole lot. But going by the names listed, DE Taco Charlton comes in 1st with 18.3% of the mocks. DE Charles Harris is 2nd with 16.9%, and Takkarist McKinley is 3rd with 9.9%. LBs Haason Reddick & TJ Watt, TE David Njoku, and DE Derek Barnett (who most mocks have going in the top 10-15 picks).

For what it's worth, Fox Sports had the Lions taking Michigan DT Chris Wormley in the 2nd round, and McShay had them taking Chris Goodwin, a WR from Penn State in the 2nd, and Bucky Hodges, a TE from Va Tech in the 3rd. The McShay picks aren't based on what he thinks the Lions are likely to do, but on what HE would do if McShay were the GM. Which is good because I can't imagine them taking 2 offensive players with their first 3 picks. McShay, for all his knowledge and stuff, seems to be the kind of guy who just throws stuff at the wall to see what sticks.

Anyway, of the players being mocked to the Lions, here are my preferences:

The "I'm ecstatic this guy dropped to us" Tier -
1. Derek Barnett, DE Tennessee (5.6% in mocks, per SB Nation). I consider this a long shot, but I previewed him a couple of months ago as a possibility. He had 3 straight years of great production in the SEC, averaging 17.3 TFL and 10.7 sacks per season. He was great last year, but even as a freshman he was pretty good.

The "I'm not ecstatic but still pretty thrilled" Tier -
2. Taco Charlton, DE Michigan (18.3%). Charlton doesn't have the upside and isn't as finished a product as Barnett, but he's physically much more aligned with what the Lions look for in a DE - tall and long-limbed.
3. Marlon Humphrey, CB Alabama (?%). At least 2 websites mocked him to the Lions (The Ringer and Fox Sports), but Humphrey has been sliding down a lot of the draft boards due to his susceptibility to the big play. That is worrisome, but I think correctable. The Lions could play him in the slot right away, and in zone packages, and as he corrects his weaknesses with the long ball, he'll move to the other corner spot opposite Slay.
4. Charles Harris, DE Missouri (16.9%). Sort of a lesser version of Barnett. Solid, not great, but I'd be happy with him.

The "I'd rather have one of the other guys, but this guy will do" Tier - 5. TJ Watt, DE Wisconsin (5.6%). I think Watt has the frame to pack on the muscle and convert from a college OLB to an NFL DE. He reminds me a bit of Clay Matthews - good pedigree, good stats at a good football school, and probably will outplay his draft position.
6. Haason Reddick, LB Temple (5.6%). Reddick isn't an ideal fit for the Lions' defensive scheme, and that's the main problem here. He's a solid athlete, but he'll need to pack on some muscle to play in the NFL, and the Lions would likely have him play as an OLB instead of trying to convert him to DE. He looks adequate in coverage, so I expect them to have more luck with him than they did with Kyle Van Noy.
7. Takkarist McKinley, DE UCLA (9.9%). McShay likes him for the Lions, and apparently a few others do as well. I'm not as sold on him as a 4-3 DE. But, he's got a good motor and is a pretty good athlete.
8. Jarrad Davis, LB Florida (?%). He had pretty solid production his JR year, and played pretty well, considering his injuries, his SR year. Decent athlete, needs to work on a few things like coverage and recognition.
9. Jordan Willis, DE Kansas State (?%). He's another guy who's OLB-sized who will need to gain weight to convert. I'm even less convinced by him than I am by McKinley, and unlike McKinley, I don't think he'd start in year 1.

The "I would be pretty disappointed by this pick" Tier - 10. Jabrill Peppers, SS Michigan (?%). I loved Peppers as a Michigan fan, but I also was frustrated by him. I didn't think he was used properly on offense, and on defense he was basically a linebacker in a defensive back's body. Great return guy though. Anyway, he's not great in coverage, so you can't put him at safety. I think his ideal role in the NFL is as an all-purpose back/kick returner, but there isn't enough film on him as a RB (Michigan made the huge mistake of lining him up as a wildcat QB instead) to justify a 1st round pick.

The "equivalent of the Ebron pick face-palm" Tier -
11. David Njoku, TE Miami (5.6%). It's disconcerting how many mocks have the Lions taking Njoku. Personal story time - I watched the 2014 NFL Draft at the TAP Room in the MGM Detroit. At the time, the Lions had a lot of defensive needs, needs on the OL, and at RB. OT Taylor Lewan was in play, as well as WR Odell Beckham Jr, and DT Aaron Donald. The guy I had been hoping for was CB Justin Gilbert, who went two picks earlier (thank god, as it turns out). Instead, the Lions opted to get themselves a "matchup nightmare" in Ebron, a TE who looked great in the receiving game, except for some drops, and wasn't a very good blocker. Upon hearing the Lions call his name with the 10th pick (THE 10th OVERALL PICK! ON A TIGHT END???), I banged my head against the bar in frustration.

Now, look at the scouting of Ebron and compare it to what they say about Njoku. Tall, good athlete, great catch radius, has some issues with drops, needs to add bulk and get better at blocking. They could be the same guy. The only thing that would be worse about the Njoku pick is the fact that they'd be duplicating the Ebron mistake of 3 years ago WHILE EBRON IS STILL ON THE TEAM. I give Bob Quinn a lot more credit than that, but apparently a number of mock drafters either don't know the recent history, or they're lumping Quinn in with the hapless Lions GMs of the past.

Unless something crazy happens (like what happened with Laremy Tunsil last year) and a guy like Fournette or one of the top 2 WRs drops in our lap, I'm not going to be a fan of taking any offensive player in round 1 this year. OJ Howard, the TE from Alabama, is really good and would probably be a good option if he dropped as well, but I can't get over the TE thing. We took Brandon Pettigrew with the 20th pick in 2009, and some of us were shaking our heads over taking a TE more known for his blocking so high. Then the Ebron pick happened. Taking another TE in the first round would be like back in the '80s and early '90s when the Jets would blow their top picks on FBs and TEs...

What to do with the Pistons

I've waffled a bit on what to do with this team. I always thought Ish Smith was the wrong guy to back up Reggie (due to Ish's lack of shooting), and that's been validated through the course of the season. But when Reggie went down, I figured it would just be a matter of an awful month or 2 and then we'd get back to the playoffs. When the Pistons struggled after Reggie returned, Reggie being clearly the culprit, and it was pretty evident that there was a lot of disunity on the team, I was all for getting rid of RJ and possibly Drummond as well. Then I read a Zach Lowe piece on the Pistons' struggles, which actually gave me some hope, despite its dismal tone. I had been talked off the ledge.

February was a pretty good month for the Pistons. They went 8-4 in the month, with impressive wins over Toronto, Charlotte, and Portland. The hot streak continued into March, the highlight being a win over Cleveland, and they finally reached .500 after beating the Knicks. Then the wheels fell off. Pathetic loss after pathetic loss, SVG finally shut Reggie Jackson down for the season, something Van Gundy freely admitted he should've done earlier. Almost exactly a month ago, the Pistons were riding high and looking pretty good to make the playoffs as a 6 or 7 seed. Now they're in the lottery, and we're left dealing with the "what now?" question.

So, WHAT NOW?

1. SVG needs to step down as Head Coach.
It became clear to me that Van Gundy can't make the right decisions for the team as a GM if he's coaching them at the same time. He's too competitive, he wants to win NOW, and he doesn't always make the right call in the heat of the moment. He also seems to struggle to reach some of his players. I'd like to see SVG step down and hire a young hotshot out of the college ranks or one of the top assistants in the league. It's time to give someone else a shot.

2. Drummond and Reggie need to GO.
Andre Drummond is not the future of this franchise, unfortunately. He hasn't developed a post game, a FT shot, or anything resembling rim protection in his 5 years with the team. His motor runs hot & cold, and lately it's been more cold. Oh, and he can't play during the last 5 min of any close game because he's too big of a liability at the charity stripe. Drummond is getting paid WAY too much for this. Reggie has a chance of earning his contract, but I'm not optimistic. He relies too much on athleticism for a guy with asthma and tendonitis of the knee. If it weren't for the health concerns, I'd say stick with him and hope for the best, but... these two players and their contracts will prove to be the albatross around the neck of this franchise if they aren't shipped out and SOON.

3. Build around some of the youngsters and tinker.
I think the best move is to make this KCP's team. He's been very inconsistent as a scorer. I think he's at the stage in his career where you can put some low-level pressure on him. Can he be The MAN for a team not trying to make the playoffs for a couple of years? I think so, and I think the effort in trying to fill that role will be great for his game. Give Stanley Johnson freedom to work in the starting SF role, maybe. Henry Ellenson needs some reps, as will whoever we draft this summer. So cut lose some of the dead weight and let the young guys play. Let the new coach figure some things out without the pressure of playoff expectations.

4. Draftpickdraftpicksdraftpicks.
Whenever we make a trade, we need to be getting a 1st round pick in the mix. This year, next year, 3 years in the future... The Pistons need to draft The Next Big Thing. We've tried rebuilding several different ways without doing a total tear-down, and none of them have worked. We need to cut the fat, get picks, and work on the young talent we have. KCP is a guy I'd like to keep around, since 2-way players of his caliber don't grow on trees. But there are no "sacred cows", as Joe D once said, and if KCP can bring us a top 3 pick in trade, do it.

I'm not advocating for a full-Hinkie. Do a full tear-down, tank or whatever you want to call it for a year. Then in the summer of 2018, start rebuilding.

Right now the Pistons are in a horrible no-man's land. They have a lot of salary wrapped up in players that you can't build around. I'm afraid the ceiling for this team is bottom-tier playoff team. SVG needs to hit the reset button and go for the pick. If he doesn't, Detroit basketball is going to be mired in many more years of mediocrity.

Lions - FA edition

The Lions have impressed me so far this offseason. I don't want to say they "nailed" their free agency signings, but man am I feeling good about them. When I went over potential FA targets for the Lions, I didn't look at a single offensive lineman because I felt like their line was ok enough that they could re-sign their RT and RG and hope they continue. GM Bob Quinn was less satisfied, however, and decided to let Warford and Reiff go elsewhere and overpay a bit to bring in higher-priced talent.

TJ Lang got a $28.5M, 3-yr deal, which is pretty high for RG, even one that made the Pro Bowl (rumor is that Seattle offered him $8M/yr). Pros - he's a Pro Bowl RG, he'll help our anemic running game as well as solidify pass protect, adding him simultaneously weakens the Packers while it strengthens us, and he's a hometown guy. Cons - it's an expensive deal, and Lang has a bit of an injury history.

We also signed Rick(y) Wagner to a 5 yr deal that makes him the NFL's highest paid RT.  Wagner was the top rated RT in pass protect in 2014 and was good in 2016, although not as good as he was in '14. 2015 was a bit of a down year for him though. We essentially had a turnstile at RT until Reiff moved over there when Decker took over protecting the blind side. Reiff was an improvement, Wagner is better, and he's a much better run blocker.

These two signings have been the highlights of Detroit's offseason, and it should be easy to see why. First, the Lions made the playoffs last season, despite having the 30th ranked rushing attack, a passing game that didn't attack down the field, and "bend but don't break" defense that allowed nearly every QB it faced to put up near-Tom Brady numbers.

Opposing QB: 72.7 COMP%, 248.4 YPG, 33 TDs, 10 INTs, 106.5 passer rating
2016 Tom Brady: 67.4 COMP%, 296.2 YPG, 28 TDs, 2 INTs, 112.2 passer rating

More on the defense in a bit, but back to the matter at hand. The Lions were a playoff team that probably didn't deserve to be a playoff team, only they won JUST enough games (against a weak schedule) to make it. A long-time Achilles heel of this team has been the running game. The Lions were 31st in run-blocking, according to footballoutsiders.com, and 18th in pass protection. These two additions are a bit of an overpay, but one that will allow our offense to run the ball far more effectively while still focusing on the pass. If this line gels like I expect it will, we could have one of the top offenses in the NFC. Also, we added a blocking TE in Darren Fells, an underrated move that will especially help at the goal line.

The Lions mainly used free agency to address depth issues on defense. DT Akeem Spence and DE Cornelius Washington aren't guys you want starting for you if you can help it, but it's nice having them to back your starters up.  They cut DeAndre Levy, which was understandable given his cap hit and the fact that he's only played in 6 games in the past 2 years, and recorded only 16 tackles in that time. LB Paul Worrilow is another depth move, I hope, because he hasn't been starting quality for the past 2 years. The biggest move on the defensive side of the ball was to add DJ Hayden, a former 1st round pick who's been a bit of a bust. He'd be a decent nickle corner for the Lions, but wouldn't be an ideal option to pair up with Slay as your #2 CB.

Lastly, the Lions recently signed WR Keshawn Martin for depth and probably to replace Andre Roberts as a returner. I'd say they probably still need to do something at LB, CB, DE, DT, and RB, either in free agency or in the draft. WR could still be addressed too, and probably S in the draft. Out of the free agents I profiled, Hightower, Poe, Minter, Hankins, TJ McDonald, Lacy, Carr, and Teo are still out there. You can rule out Teo, but the Lions still have the cap room to sign Hightower and someone else, or maybe even Minter, Hankins, and someone else.

Based on the free agent signings so far, it seems pretty clear that the Lions' 2017 draft will be very defense-focused. The first pick will likely be the top CB or DE available. There's speculation that the Lions will go with the RB Joe Mixon in round 2, especially after targeting run-blocking with their top 2 free agent signings. Maybe. But the needs on the defensive side of the ball are so strong, and the Lions really don't need to spend a lot of money or a high pick to solidify their RB position.

We've got a month & a half until Draft Day, rd 1. I like what Quinn has done so far. He's positioned himself well for the draft so that he's not under pressure to make a specific pick. He still needs to nail this draft though. He's added depth to the defense (Quinn did a solid job of adding defensive depth last year as well), but there's not a lot of talent there. 

Post-Combine NFL Draft Prep, Rds 1-3

Now that the NFL combine is over, it's time to take a look at the Lions' draft prospects. First, it should be said that probably WAY too much emphasis is placed on combine results. Game tape, college production, and especially performance vs. an NFL-caliber matchup should take precedence over how many times a player lifts 225 lbs, or how fast he can run in a straight line for 40 yds. Still, the combine is a useful tool that can help show us things that weren't evident on tape.

In my previous post, I stated that the Lions have needs on every level on defense. The strongest needs are at DE, LB, and CB. Offensively, they could use some insurance at RB, a real TE, and possible a #1 WR. They also need to re-sign their O line, but that wouldn't be addressed in the draft. I think the Lions should go after Dion Sims in FA to handle the TE position (DO NOT draft a TE in the first round, as good as a dude like OJ Howard looks). I like the idea of taking a DT in free agency as well, but DE and CB tend to be expensive buys and I'd rather acquires those in the draft. RB and LB could go either way, but I'm against spending either high money or a high pick on an RB.

The Lions have the 21st pick in round 1, pick #53 in rd 2, and pick #85 in round 3, so I'll take a look at three or 4 options who might be available in the Lions' range for each round.

Round 1, Pick #21

Marlon Humphrey - CB, Alabama
6'0", 197 lbs, 4.41 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 36 tackles (3 TFL), 2 INTs, 1 TD, 3 FF, 1 PD

Defensive players from Alabama, especially corners, seem to LOVE to hit. Humphrey definitely falls into that category. He is not shy about stepping in to cover the run. He's an incredible athlete, one of the top performers at his position in the 40-yd dash and the broad jump. He's a pretty good cover corner too, but his technique is sloppy and he's shown some susceptibility to the deep ball. He does play well in zone or other situations where he has time to turn and locate the ball. I think he'd be a decent #2 corner, or failing that, a Cam Chancellor-type of safety.


Malik McDowell - DE, Michigan State
6'6", 276 lbs, 4.85 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 36 tackles (7 TFL), 1.5 sacks

McDowell had a disappointing 2016 (as did MSU as a whole), and that raised questions about his motor. He was banged up and that contributed to his fallen production, but there are some effort concerns as well. That said, he could be a top DE in the league, if he works out. He was probably playing a bit out of position mainly as a DT with MSU, and is expected to line up as a DE in the NFL. He'll need to clean up the technique and add some pass rush moves, but his athleticism and physique could enable him to dominate on a JJ Watt-level. It's a bit of a risky pick, but one with high upside. FWIW, many analysts don't have him going in round 1.


Derek Barnett - DE, Tennessee
6'3", 259 lbs, 4.88 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 46 tackles (19 TFL), 13 sacks, 1 INT, 5 PD, 2 FF

Barnett irons out some of the concerns you'd have with McDowell, so while he lacks some of the upside, he's a much safer bet. I've seen Barnett going in mocks anywhere from the #8 pick to #24, which means he'll likely be gone before the Lions step to the podium. He's not a superior athlete, but I see him as being a borderline Pro Bowler in the future (kind of like how DeAndre Levy in his prime arguably deserved to make the Pro Bowl but didn't).


Corey Davis - WR, W Michigan
6'3", 213 lbs, 4.45 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 97 rec, 1500 yds, 19 TDs

I wasn't going to cover any offensive prospects for Detroit, but this guy... If you're looking for production, he's got it. He's big, he's fast, and he high-points the ball better than anybody. The downside is we have almost no tape against quality competition. He managed the WMU's only TD in the Cotton Bowl this year vs. Wisconsin, and he racked up 154 yds and a TD vs. a VERY good Michigan State team last year. This dude gets TDs, period. And he's probably the best WR in the draft.


Obi Melifonwu - S, UConn
6'4", 224 lbs, 4.40 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 118 tackles (2.5 TFL), 4 INTs, 3 PDs

Dude is a safety, built like a LB, with top CB-level speed. It's like he was built in a lab. He can cover or play FS, he can tackle... He probably doesn't have the ideal instincts or reading ability you'd want from a 1st round pick, but I feel like the Lions have a good situation for him where he could be an understudy to the two veteran safeties we have who are both on expiring deals.

Others to look out for in Round 1: Budda Baker S Washington, Jourdan Lewis CB Michigan.

Round 2, Pick #53 overall

Damontae Kazee - CB, San Diego State
5'10", 184 lbs, 4.54 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 67 tackles (3 TFL), 7 INTs, 1 TD, 8 PDs, 1 FF

Kazee lacks elite size and speed, but man can he cover. 16 picks and 27 (!!!) passes defensed over the past 3 years. I don't think you'd put him on the island right off the bat, but he could play nickle corner easily, and maybe even #2 corner in a pinch. The Lions' corner depth is pretty weak. We really only have 1 guy capable of man coverage. Damontae Kazee would be the second, if the Lions draft him.


Marcus Williams - S, Utah
6'1", 202 lbs, 4.56 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 64 tackles (1 TFL), 5 INTs, 3 PD, 2 FF

Flat out, he's a cover safety. He's not the toughest tackler, but he makes an effort to defend the run, and he'll run around and knock passes out of the sky. He's got a pretty good 40 time for a safety, and his other measurables from the combine were at or near the top in his position. I'd like him to bulk up a little and work on playing the run, but he's got everything you want to cover the passing game as a FS. What I really like about him is his nose for the ball. In 3 years as a starter, he has 11 INTs, 4 FFs, and 2 FR.


Zach Cunningham - LB, Vanderbilt
6'3", 234 lbs, 4.67 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 125 tackles (16.5 TFL), 3 PD, 2 FF

Cunningham made all the plays. He looks a bit skinny for a middle linebacker, but he shoots the gaps well, can play in coverage, and he can get to the QB if you blitz him (Vandy didn't blitz him last year). He does a good job of not getting blocked, but he lacks the size to fight through it when a blocker does catch him. I'd like to see him add about 20 lbs of muscle, but that ability to cover stands out.

Others to look out for in Round 2: Jordan Willis DE Kansas St, Chris Wormley DT Michigan, Adam Shaheen TE Ashland.

Round 3, Pick #85 overall

DeMarcus Walker - DE, Florida State
6'4", 280 lbs, 4.9 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 67 tackles (19.5 TFL), 16 sacks, 2 PD, 3 FF

Walker isn't a classic speed rusher, but he's got moves and definitely can get to the QB. The Lions like to move their linemen around - Devin Taylor played some as a DT, as did Hyder - so I can see Walker's skill set fitting in here.


Raekwon McMillan - LB, Ohio State
6'2", 240 lbs, 4.61 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 102 tackles (7 TFL), 2 sacks, 5 PDs, 2 FF

Probably shouldn't start on day 1, but given the Lions' weak & banged up LB corps, that's not a given. I was impressed by him at OSU, and the consensus seems to be that he's a safe bet to be an average starter in the NFL. With a late 3rd round pick, you can't ask for more than that. He's also a good match for our defensive scheme as a 4-3 strongside LB, so there's that.

Rasul Douglas - CB, West Virginia
6'2", 209 lbs, 4.59 40-yd dash
2016 Stats: 70 tackles (3.5 TFL), 1 sack, 8 INTs, 1 TD, 8 PDs, 1 FF

Douglas is a juco transfer, so we really only have 1 year of production to review. But it's a pretty good year. He has elite size for the position, but not elite speed. He might be a guy who transitions to safety or plays more zone coverage, but his cover skills are pretty good. Plus, it's not like he's SLOW, he just lacks the makeup speed that top corners have. He's still faster than your average WR, and I think he size will help compensate for lack of speed sometimes.

Others to look out for in Round 3: Kareem Hunt RB Toledo, Alex Anzalone LB Florida, Joe Mixon RB Oklahoma.

***

Actually, Mixon starts getting interesting in round 3, so let's talk about that. Mixon is probably one of the top 3 or 4 RBs in this draft, but due to some non-football related reasons, he's not worth drafting higher than round 3 in my opinion. Lions GM Bob Quinn mentioned that he wished Mixon had been invited to the Combine, which leads me to believe that Quinn would consider drafting Joe Mixon at some point.

If you don't know the story behind the Joe Mixon incident, it goes something like this: he and some friends hit on (or had some kind of interaction with) some girl on campus, she blew them off and Mixon didn't like what she said, so he followed her into this sandwich shop. We'll call this Mistake #1, and it's a pretty big one. Nothing good ever happens after a decision like that. In one version of the events, the girl was basically telling on him to one of his teammates who she also knew, and Mixon was trying to set the record straight. Anyway, words were exchanged between the girl & Mixon and her possibly gay friend & Mixon. It sounds like one or both of them called Mixon a racial slur, he called her friend a gay slur, and it looked like he was about to walk away when she said something back to him and Mixon turned around. She reacted by pushing Mixon. He lunged at her like he was faking a punch, she slapped him in the face, and he then obliterated her with a right hook. It was fast and brutal, and it broke 4 bones in her face.

I'm not excusing Mixon's actions in any way. He was stupid, he allowed himself to be goaded to a point where he couldn't think for himself anymore, and he reacted in a way that is just never ok. What muddies the waters a bit is the fact that the girl seemed to be egging him on, she pushed and hit him first, and of course they called him the N-word, which where I come from was a license to hit somebody in the face. Not a girl, and not like that, but it definitely raises the stakes. Anyway, this was 2 and a half years ago. Mixon also had a minor incident with a parking lot attendant, so he clearly has some rage issues that he needs to deal with. The question is at what point does a player's actions become so unacceptable that you won't touch him, and which side of that line does Joe Mixon fall?

To me, the extenuating circumstances in the Joe Mixon incident put him in the "acceptable" category, but with HEAVY reservations. I wouldn't take him earlier than round 3, I would require he take some anger management classes and see a therapist, and I'd set him up with a mentor on the team to coach him in making better personal decisions. I'd rather draft any of the 3 players I profiled ahead of Mixon, but if they're all gone by then, I'd start thinking about it.

***

In my ideal draft, we'd take either Humphrey or Barnett in round 1, Cunningham in round 2, and then either Walker or Douglas in round 3. Mike Lombardi of The Ringer put out a video for how to fix each of the 32 NFL teams in just a few steps. Here's the link, if you want to watch. If you don't, here's my summary, along with some comments from me:

1. Fix the Defensive Line. We had no pass rush and were getting blown off the line on running plays. The Lions need to add a DT and a DE. I like the idea of getting our DT in free agency, but pass rushing DEs are expensive. Barnett would fill that role if he's available in round 1, and if he's not, Walker in round 3.
2. Re-sign Warford and Reiff. The offensive line is young & improving, and they're starting to gel as a unit (which I predicted last year). Keep them together.
3. Get an Insurance Running Back. The Lions' top 2 RBs missed most of the season, and their #3 guy missed a good chunk as well. They need to solidify this position with a cheap insurance policy. That means either a mid-to-late round pick or a cheap FA.
4. Get a Blocking Tight End. Ebron is NOT a real tight end. He's a big slot guy or split out. We need a guy who can block. I'd rather get that in FA.
5. Get Corners that can play Man to Man. We do not have good cover corners. Slay is the only one, everyone else is a nickle or dime guy trying to cover like a #2. Humphrey, or failing that, Jourdan Lewis, Kazee, or Douglas would help immensely.

I agree with  Lombardi's list for the most part, but he leaves out the LB position entirely, and you could argue that LB is the Lions' weakest position. I'd like to solve that issue in both FA and the draft, which is why I profiled Cunningham and Raekwon McMillan. I also mentioned Alex Anzalone, who is a terrific athlete and he can really play the position. The problem is he never played a full college season at Florida due to injuries (nagging shoulder injury & a broken arm). What with all the problems we're having with Levy, the injuries should rule Anzalone out for us. If a dude like Reuben Foster should fall to us at 21, the Lions should run, not walk, to the podium.

That's it for now. I'll touch back on the draft one Mike Mayock's mock is available, the day before draft day.

Red Wings are Dead Wings, Pistons mediocre... How 'bout a Lions post?

NFL free agency looms, and ESPN published their top 150 free agents. The Lions need help at every position on defense, and at WR, RB and TE on offense (in that order). The OL could stand some upgrades too, but it's less necessary if they just re-sign what they've got. So, of these 150 guys, who should the Lions target?

Upper Echelon - High Pricetag
I didn't include positions like DE, CB, or RB here because those positions tend to be really expensive. I think you can do better in the draft. LB, WR, and DT are all positions of great need, and they tend to take longer for a draft pick at one of those positions to develop into a quality starter. It should go without saying, but the Lions would need to absolutely shell out to get one of these guys.

LB - Dont'a Hightower
The word is he wants to explore the market, which makes it unlikely that the Patriots will re-sign him. They tend to let the higher priced vets go in lieu of overpaying. Anyway, the Lions DESPERATELY need a decent LB. MLB Tahir Whitehead ranked dead last by PFF out of all starting LBs, and Levy can't be relied upon to play another snap. Hightower will cost some cash, but the Lions need to shore up the LB position more than any other.

WR - Alshon Jeffrey
Even with Tate and Jones, the Lions are pretty weak at WR. I actually thought this position would be a strength, but that was assuming that Marvin Jones was capable of playing like a #2 WR, or even a #1b. He started strong, but he faded badly down the stretch. Jeffrey would give the Lions a legit #1 WR, allow Tate to move into the slot and be more of the Swiss Army WR that he should be, and Jones would be the 2nd deep threat.

DT - Dontari Poe
The Lions' D line was pretty terrible in rushing the passer or getting stuffs (31st in power rank, 29th in stuffs, 25th in pass rushing). They consistently were pushed back on running plays, and Haloti Ngata looks flat-out DONE. A'Shawn Robinson seems to be rounding into a nice player, but he's really all they've got. Poe is coming off of a down year, but he's been to a couple of Pro Bowls and should be, if not a star, at least the high quality DT they've lacked since Suh left.

Middle Echelon - Guys with Upside
We're still talking about doing an overpay, but it'll be less drastic with this level of player, and the Lions might be in a position to offer a more modest deal with incentives.

DT - Johnathan Hankins
Hankins is coming off of his rookie deal and looking to get PAID. The Giants can't afford to put that much money on their D line. Hankins is a mid-level DT with upside, the hope is that the Lions could get him for about $6M/yr, plus incentives.

S - TJ McDonald
The Lions are pretty old at the safety, and their two starting safeties from 2016 are both on expiring contracts. McDonald is 26, can play the ball in the air, and can hit. They could also target safety in the draft, or hope that Killebrew develops.

LB - Barry Minter
It sounds like Minter is poised to leave AZ, and if the Jets call, it's a good bet he ends up there. If they don't, he'd be a great fit to take over the MLB position from Whitehead, who's been awful. Minter isn't lightning quick, but he's great vs. the run and can defend the pass.

WR - Robert Woods
Another solution to the WR problem would be to just get a bunch of slot WR-types, like NE, and spend all day finding holes in the defense. It sounds like Woods wants a more pass-heavy offense and more stability at QB. Provided we sign Stafford to an extension, he'll have that in spades here. Shouldn't be a hard sell.

Lower Echelon - Bargains
I've stocked this category with guys who are either boom-or-bust candidates, or guys that are solid but have very limited upside.

TE - Dion Sims
The Lions do not have a blocking TE on the roster. Sims isn't a big receiving threat, but he's an outstanding blocker. And while he's not the big play threat that Ebron is, Sims still has decent ability as a pass catcher.

CB - Brandon Carr
Basically, think of the good days we had with Rashean Mathis and that's what you can expect with Carr. He's on the older side for a DB, but he's good enough to hold down the right side and allow Slay to get a break and not have to follow the other team's #1 all over the field.

TE - Anthony Fasano
He's a bit long in the tooth at 32, but Fasano is still the best blocking TE in the league. His impact in the passing game would be minimal though.

LB - Manti Teo
He's not very durable, but he's a good LB when healthy. Teo's never completed a full season, averaging 9.5 games played, and he's coming off of a big injury. Pack his contract full of incentives, so if the injury bug bites again, you don't take the big hit. This would be a swing for the fences signing.

RB - Eddie Lacy
Same thing here. Lacy was looking good before the injury. Pack in the incentives so that he's paid like a #1 back if he finishes the year with the team.


I'll be back with a draft post sometime after the combine. Even filling some of these positions in free agency, we still need to draft. I'd say our draft needs are DE, CB, and LB, in that order. This defense really needs help. A lot of people have mentioned the RB Joe Mixon as a possibility for the Lions, since GM Bob Quinn mentioned his name at the combine. I don't think that means Quinn is looking to take a RB in the first or even 2nd round. Quinn had a pretty good, albeit boring, draft last year. Taking Mixon high would definitely be a step in the other direction, if he goes that way.

3 Trades to Fix the Pistons

What happened to that team we had last year? Stan Van Gundy was pushing the youth movement, the chains were off Andre Drummond (the "chains" being shackled to Greg Monroe and Josh Smith) and he had his first All Star appearance (nearly by popular vote), Reggie Jackson was in his first full year as starting PG and was 10th in the AS Backcourt voting. Marcus Morris was having a career resurgence, and KCP and Tobias Harris looked like solid pieces going forward. Stanley Johnson also had the appearance of the SF of the future, if he could cut down on the mental mistakes and tweak his shot.

So far this season, the good feeling is gone. Reggie Jackson came back from injury as Bad Kobe, pounding the air out of the ball and jacking up a ton of ill-advised shots. Marcus Morris is another black hole, and has regressed as a 3pt shooter and as an individual defender. Andre Drummond remains a mediocre team defender, and while his FT shooting has improved incrementally, almost every other area of his game is worse and the Pistons score at a better rate with him on the bench. Stanley Johnson has seen a drastic reduction in his minutes, due to his inability to produce anything on the court much of the time.

This team is ill. Not good ill. Bad ill.

To be honest, I think the team was built on the false premise that Andre Drummond can be the foundation of a contending team, and that Reggie Jackson can be the starting PG on a contending team. Once I thought that at least part 1 of that equation was true and part 2 was possible, even probable. No longer. There are two ways out of this mess. Either trade one or both of them away (I think Drummond at least is still salvageable, he just shouldn't be the focal point), or ride out on the wave of mediocrity for the next 4 years. Obviously the 2nd option is a nightmare, so I'm going to present 3 different trade scenarios that offer a ray of hope.

Trade Scenario #1
Detroit-Lakers-Philly 3-team trade
Detroit gets: D'Angelo Russell, Jahlil Okafor, Timofey Mozgov, Gerald Henderson, and LA's 2019 1st round pick
LA gets: Andre Drummond and Nerlens Noel.
Philly gets: Reggie Jackson, Aron Baynes, and Nick Young.

The Pistons get the biggest haul, as they should shipping out the most talent. Adding in the pick might be a bit much, but they really are helping the Lakers out here. They NEED to get rid of D'Angelo Russell. The Lakers already are paying Clarkson like their PG of the future, and Russell alienated the locker room last year by accidentally publicly outing Nick Young's infidelity. The Lakers also signed Mozgov to a RIDICULOUS deal last summer at $16M/yr. This trade allows LA to shed that deal and add a franchise center that they've desperately been looking for. They also get Noel, a pretty good backup and a guy you could conceivably pair with Drummond to wreak defensive havoc all over the place. Losing Nick Young might hurt a bit, but they've got a better SG coming off the bench right now, and Young is a bit of a headcase. Also, it removes the other piece of that kerfuffle from last year.

Philly needs a PG. They might get one in the draft, but that player will be 3 years away from making a difference, and Embiid looks ready right now. Reggie could bridge the gap. He's also more of a combo-guard than a true PG, which is good for when Ben Simmons gets healthy and starts running the Point Forward position. They also need a decent 2-guard, and so far only Stauskas and Henderson have been filling that role. So they upgrade at PG and at SG, and it only costs them two guys they want to get rid of anyway (Okafor and Noel), and they get a decent backup C in return. The Pistons might need to throw in a pick of some kind to sweeten the deal, but I think Philly would bite.

I really like this deal for the Pistons. D'Angelo Russell looks like he'll be a pretty good player in a few years. He's a good defender at the point, something we haven't had since Chauncey was traded. His shot is coming along and he's learning the game a bit, but he's still on his rookie deal too. Okafor has some of the same flaws as Drummond, but overall I think he's a better defender. He's not as good a rebounder, but he's far better offensively. Mozgov is a decent backup, although he'd be getting paid as a starter (in this scenario, we could either try to trade him at a later date or just play him for a couple of years and then cut our losses). Gerald Henderson would be a decent 3 & D backup for KCP, which we don't currently have. He's shooting the best 3P% of his career, so I'd expect that to come down, but he'd still be an upgrade over Bullock/Hilliard. Henderson also represents $9M coming off the books in 2018. This would allow the Pistons to rebuild without taking a big step back.

Trade Scenario #2
Pistons-Bulls
Detroit gets: Rajon Rondo + 2017 1st rd pick (either Chicago's or Sacramento's)
Chicago gets: Reggie Jackson

This is a straight headache for headache trade. The Bulls need to win now and can't do it with Rondo. Reggie can score, but plays hero ball far too often and can't defend. Rondo isn't a huge "get" for us, but he's a couple mil cheaper and comes off the books 2 years earlier. Chicago owns Sacramento's 1st round pick if it falls between 11-30 (currently they'd be in the 8th slot, if the draft lottery was tonight), so this trade gives Detroit the option of taking the better pick, Sacramento's or Chicago's. This is a pretty good PG draft, btw. Anyway, this is a classic "punt the season" trade right here.

Trade Scenario #3
Pistons-Kings-Bulls
Detroit gets: DeMarcus Cousins, Ben McLemore, Rajon Rondo + option of Chi/Sac 2017 pick (owned by Chicago)
Sacramento gets: Andre Drummond + Detroit's 2017 pick & future 2nd rounder
Chicago gets: Reggie Jackson

This trade reunites Cousins and Rondo, who reportedly got along pretty well last year. Sacramento gets Drummond and some picks, Chicago gets Reggie. Picks are exchanged all around, and really the only team not guaranteed to have a pick this year is Chicago. Ben McLemore was a throw-in to make the salaries work, but he was a highly regarded prospect who might just need a change of scenery and a more stable coaching situation. I think I like this deal the best. It's the most likely to please all parties involved.