First, NFL.com has a number of different guys that do mocks. The best is Mike Mayock, but he doesn't do his until the day of or the day before the draft. The latest is Bucky Brooks, who mocked Florida LB Jarrad Davis to the Lions on April 11th.
On the other hand, Daniel Jeremiah mocked yet another non-blocking TE (Miami's David Njoku) with less than great hands on 4/4. This would be my nightmare scenario. Willis is an OLB who would probably convert to DE in our system, and Harris is a perfect fit. I'd be fine with either of them.
CBS Sports has a TON of mocks, so let's get cracking.
Both Rob Rang and Ryan Wilson mocked Temple OLB Haason Reddick to Detroit, so we'll look at him first. He's an incredible athlete, although a bit undersized. I think he played more of a 3-4 pass rushing OLB at Temple, but he can cover as well and his frame isn't really big enough to do that on an NFL level. He'd be better suited to run as an OLB in Detroit's 4-3 system. Not an ideal fit, but not bad either.
Dan Brugler mocked us TJ Watt and I LOVE this pick. Watt is the younger brother of current NFL great JJ Watt, who is easily the best defensive player in the league. TJ is no slouch either, having notched 11.5 sacks, a pick-6, and wreaked havoc last season. He'd play DE in our system and be GOOD at it.
Pete Prisco picked Charles Harris, who I mentioned before but is worth going into further. He's close to ideal size. Not a terrific athlete, but not bad either, and his production last year was pretty good. I've brought him up before as a possibility for the Lions.
I'm not a fan of Will Brinson's Jabrill Peppers pick, and I'll tell you why. Peppers isn't great in coverage. He's more like an LB, but he would need to add 30 lbs of muscle, and that's not happening. He'd make an instant impact in the return game and could be a multi-purpose back out of the backfield on offense, but that's not a player I'm taking in round 1. I'm much more a fan of Jared Dubin's Taco Charlton pick. Charlton is a DE, a bigtime need, and a good one. I didn't include him in my Draft preview earlier because he was slotted a lot higher than he is now. The draft is weird this way, that a guy can move up & down in a couple of months without anything actually happening. Anyway, Taco possesses ideal size for a DE and had great production last season. Get him.
Dan Brugler mocked us TJ Watt and I LOVE this pick. Watt is the younger brother of current NFL great JJ Watt, who is easily the best defensive player in the league. TJ is no slouch either, having notched 11.5 sacks, a pick-6, and wreaked havoc last season. He'd play DE in our system and be GOOD at it.
Pete Prisco picked Charles Harris, who I mentioned before but is worth going into further. He's close to ideal size. Not a terrific athlete, but not bad either, and his production last year was pretty good. I've brought him up before as a possibility for the Lions.
I'm not a fan of Will Brinson's Jabrill Peppers pick, and I'll tell you why. Peppers isn't great in coverage. He's more like an LB, but he would need to add 30 lbs of muscle, and that's not happening. He'd make an instant impact in the return game and could be a multi-purpose back out of the backfield on offense, but that's not a player I'm taking in round 1. I'm much more a fan of Jared Dubin's Taco Charlton pick. Charlton is a DE, a bigtime need, and a good one. I didn't include him in my Draft preview earlier because he was slotted a lot higher than he is now. The draft is weird this way, that a guy can move up & down in a couple of months without anything actually happening. Anyway, Taco possesses ideal size for a DE and had great production last season. Get him.
The Ringer mocked my ideal pick, or near enough. I'd pretty much be in favor of any defensive player, if he's a fit. But I've had my eye on Marlon Humphrey for a while.
Humphrey has ideal size and speed for an NFL CB. He hits RBs and has solid coverage skills. He's shown susceptibility to getting beaten on the long ball, so it might be better to run more zone with him, or help him out with a safety over the top if he's covering a burner. I'm not crazy about the long-ball issues, but you can't get a perfect CB with the 21st pick. He's as close as we're gonna get. Unless one of the big names drops to us for some weird reason, Humphrey is at the top of my list.
SI's Chris Burke also likes Haason Reddick for the Lions, which makes 3 mock drafters on 2 different sites and leads me to believe that maybe they know something the rest of us don't. Fox Sports picked Humphrey for us, which obviously I like. At this point we're getting a lot of repeats, so I'll move on to something we haven't heard before.
Todd McShay does so many mocks that he could legitimately have mocked half the players in the first round to a particular team. He and Kiper did a back & forth mock in which Kiper tabbed Charles Harris to the Lions and Kiper picked Takkarist McKinley. McKinley and Harris are similar in a lot of ways. Both are borderline 3-4 OLB/4-3 DEs. Both had pretty good numbers last year, with McKinley getting 18 TFL and 10 sacks, Harris getting 12 TFL and 9 sacks. But McKinley grades out as a slightly better athlete (4.59 40-yd dash to Harris' 4.82), and McKinley had SLIGHTLY better numbers last year. Some scouts think Harris' drop in production from 18.5 TFL his sophomore year to 12 last year was due to scheme & coaching. Personally, I like Harris a little better. He's a year younger, and his production is a little more convincing - 2 yrs of quality production as a soph & junior vs. McKinley's 1 yr as a senior. But McKinley wouldn't be a horrible pick.
A semi-useful article from SB Nation did a poll of the existing mocks and made pie charts for each team and which players are being mocked to them. Essentially, it's a compilation of all the mocks out there.
Todd McShay does so many mocks that he could legitimately have mocked half the players in the first round to a particular team. He and Kiper did a back & forth mock in which Kiper tabbed Charles Harris to the Lions and Kiper picked Takkarist McKinley. McKinley and Harris are similar in a lot of ways. Both are borderline 3-4 OLB/4-3 DEs. Both had pretty good numbers last year, with McKinley getting 18 TFL and 10 sacks, Harris getting 12 TFL and 9 sacks. But McKinley grades out as a slightly better athlete (4.59 40-yd dash to Harris' 4.82), and McKinley had SLIGHTLY better numbers last year. Some scouts think Harris' drop in production from 18.5 TFL his sophomore year to 12 last year was due to scheme & coaching. Personally, I like Harris a little better. He's a year younger, and his production is a little more convincing - 2 yrs of quality production as a soph & junior vs. McKinley's 1 yr as a senior. But McKinley wouldn't be a horrible pick.
A semi-useful article from SB Nation did a poll of the existing mocks and made pie charts for each team and which players are being mocked to them. Essentially, it's a compilation of all the mocks out there.
For what it's worth, Fox Sports had the Lions taking Michigan DT Chris Wormley in the 2nd round, and McShay had them taking Chris Goodwin, a WR from Penn State in the 2nd, and Bucky Hodges, a TE from Va Tech in the 3rd. The McShay picks aren't based on what he thinks the Lions are likely to do, but on what HE would do if McShay were the GM. Which is good because I can't imagine them taking 2 offensive players with their first 3 picks. McShay, for all his knowledge and stuff, seems to be the kind of guy who just throws stuff at the wall to see what sticks.
Anyway, of the players being mocked to the Lions, here are my preferences:
The "I'm ecstatic this guy dropped to us" Tier -
1. Derek Barnett, DE Tennessee (5.6% in mocks, per SB Nation). I consider this a long shot, but I previewed him a couple of months ago as a possibility. He had 3 straight years of great production in the SEC, averaging 17.3 TFL and 10.7 sacks per season. He was great last year, but even as a freshman he was pretty good.
The "I'm not ecstatic but still pretty thrilled" Tier -
2. Taco Charlton, DE Michigan (18.3%). Charlton doesn't have the upside and isn't as finished a product as Barnett, but he's physically much more aligned with what the Lions look for in a DE - tall and long-limbed.
3. Marlon Humphrey, CB Alabama (?%). At least 2 websites mocked him to the Lions (The Ringer and Fox Sports), but Humphrey has been sliding down a lot of the draft boards due to his susceptibility to the big play. That is worrisome, but I think correctable. The Lions could play him in the slot right away, and in zone packages, and as he corrects his weaknesses with the long ball, he'll move to the other corner spot opposite Slay.
4. Charles Harris, DE Missouri (16.9%). Sort of a lesser version of Barnett. Solid, not great, but I'd be happy with him.
The "I'd rather have one of the other guys, but this guy will do" Tier - 5. TJ Watt, DE Wisconsin (5.6%). I think Watt has the frame to pack on the muscle and convert from a college OLB to an NFL DE. He reminds me a bit of Clay Matthews - good pedigree, good stats at a good football school, and probably will outplay his draft position.
6. Haason Reddick, LB Temple (5.6%). Reddick isn't an ideal fit for the Lions' defensive scheme, and that's the main problem here. He's a solid athlete, but he'll need to pack on some muscle to play in the NFL, and the Lions would likely have him play as an OLB instead of trying to convert him to DE. He looks adequate in coverage, so I expect them to have more luck with him than they did with Kyle Van Noy.
7. Takkarist McKinley, DE UCLA (9.9%). McShay likes him for the Lions, and apparently a few others do as well. I'm not as sold on him as a 4-3 DE. But, he's got a good motor and is a pretty good athlete.
8. Jarrad Davis, LB Florida (?%). He had pretty solid production his JR year, and played pretty well, considering his injuries, his SR year. Decent athlete, needs to work on a few things like coverage and recognition.
9. Jordan Willis, DE Kansas State (?%). He's another guy who's OLB-sized who will need to gain weight to convert. I'm even less convinced by him than I am by McKinley, and unlike McKinley, I don't think he'd start in year 1.
The "I would be pretty disappointed by this pick" Tier - 10. Jabrill Peppers, SS Michigan (?%). I loved Peppers as a Michigan fan, but I also was frustrated by him. I didn't think he was used properly on offense, and on defense he was basically a linebacker in a defensive back's body. Great return guy though. Anyway, he's not great in coverage, so you can't put him at safety. I think his ideal role in the NFL is as an all-purpose back/kick returner, but there isn't enough film on him as a RB (Michigan made the huge mistake of lining him up as a wildcat QB instead) to justify a 1st round pick.
The "equivalent of the Ebron pick face-palm" Tier -
11. David Njoku, TE Miami (5.6%). It's disconcerting how many mocks have the Lions taking Njoku. Personal story time - I watched the 2014 NFL Draft at the TAP Room in the MGM Detroit. At the time, the Lions had a lot of defensive needs, needs on the OL, and at RB. OT Taylor Lewan was in play, as well as WR Odell Beckham Jr, and DT Aaron Donald. The guy I had been hoping for was CB Justin Gilbert, who went two picks earlier (thank god, as it turns out). Instead, the Lions opted to get themselves a "matchup nightmare" in Ebron, a TE who looked great in the receiving game, except for some drops, and wasn't a very good blocker. Upon hearing the Lions call his name with the 10th pick (THE 10th OVERALL PICK! ON A TIGHT END???), I banged my head against the bar in frustration.
Now, look at the scouting of Ebron and compare it to what they say about Njoku. Tall, good athlete, great catch radius, has some issues with drops, needs to add bulk and get better at blocking. They could be the same guy. The only thing that would be worse about the Njoku pick is the fact that they'd be duplicating the Ebron mistake of 3 years ago WHILE EBRON IS STILL ON THE TEAM. I give Bob Quinn a lot more credit than that, but apparently a number of mock drafters either don't know the recent history, or they're lumping Quinn in with the hapless Lions GMs of the past.
Unless something crazy happens (like what happened with Laremy Tunsil last year) and a guy like Fournette or one of the top 2 WRs drops in our lap, I'm not going to be a fan of taking any offensive player in round 1 this year. OJ Howard, the TE from Alabama, is really good and would probably be a good option if he dropped as well, but I can't get over the TE thing. We took Brandon Pettigrew with the 20th pick in 2009, and some of us were shaking our heads over taking a TE more known for his blocking so high. Then the Ebron pick happened. Taking another TE in the first round would be like back in the '80s and early '90s when the Jets would blow their top picks on FBs and TEs...
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