The Lions have the #1 Defense???

That last post was written mainly over the course of 2 days, with some finishing touches put in today. Well, a number of things are going on right now that I'd like to touch on, namely:

• The Lions have the #1 defense in the NFL, and won on Sunday to pull to 4-2
• The Red Wings opened their season with a nice win over Boston
• The Pistons have opened their pre-season strongly, with KCP and Drummond looking pretty good (until KCP went down with a knee injury that'll probably have him out for some weeks)

Ok, first things first - WHAT? The Lions have the #1 defense in the NFL? Setting aside the fact that the last time they had a good defense, it featured Chris Spielman and Jerry Ball, this team has lost it's starting MLB and half a dozen DBs (a position of weakness to begin with). How is this defense this good?

Well, scheduling helps. 5 of the 6 of the offenses they've faced - the Giants, the Jets, the Packers, the Bills, and the Vikings - are among the league's worst (Detroit also falls in the bottom 10, fyi), and the Panthers' offense is only fair to middlin'. The next 2 weeks feature a couple of the top 5 offenses (the Saints at #2 and the Falcons at #3), which should prove to be sterner tests than Detroit has faced so far. Still, Detroit's defense is part of the reason those offenses are so bad. Even when adjusting for strength of opponent, Detroit's D is still #1.

How did they get so good? Looking at this season in comparison with the previous 10, the differences are pretty stark:
 
 

There's definitely been some trending up since they were the bottom defense for 3 years in a row, but the last 2 years they were only average. What happened? Well, in 2009 the Lions drafted DeAndre Levy in the 3rd round, in 2010 they picked Suh (and Willie Young although he's getting it done for the Bears now), in 2011 they picked Nick Fairley (and no one else, apparently), in 2012 they got Tahir Whitehead, and in 2013 they got Ansah & Slay.

Whitehead has stepped up capably for the injured Tulloch (2 picks yesterday!). Suh, Ansah, FA pickup George Johnson and Nick Fairley are all playing solidly on the defensive line. Slay has come out of nowhere as a solid cover corner, and then there's Levy...

Levy is currently 4th in tackles, he's got half a sack, a crazy INT, and a tackle for a safety. He's putting together a solid Pro Bowl season after getting ripped off last year (tied for 2nd in the league in INTs as a linebacker and he doesn't get in???). It's only 6 games into the season, but right now Levy is in the Defensive POY conversation and the Lions have the top defense. We've come a long way.

As surprisingly good as the defense has been, the offense has been equally surprisingly bad. The kicking game bears part of the blame, adding 2 more misses yesterday and 1 make. Following this season as closely as I have, I've become a connoisseur of botched FG attempts and I can say that yesterday's 2 misses were quality misses (I'm at least 75% serious when I say that). Seriously, while the two missed FGs didn't make me happy, I think Prater was a little rusty and will be better down the road.

The offense has lacked that downfield element since Calvin Johnson sprained his ankle in week 2 or 3. The running game has gotten gradually better the past 2 weeks, despite missing Reggie Bush. Matt Stafford wasn't particularly effective, but he took care of the ball this week.

The main problem has been the pass blocking, which was a strength last year. The Lions have allowed the 3rd most sacks in the NFL, and Stafford has little time to get set before he has to get rid of the ball or move out of the pocket. The main culprit yesterday was Dominic Raiola, who twice allowed a rusher to blow right up the middle. One play he got beat, the other he completely missed his assignment. He may have had a hand in one of the other sacks, but I can't remember. The point is, Raiola seems to be falling off rather steeply. He's at the point of retirement and may have stayed on a year too long. Travis Swanson is the rookie waiting in the wings, but I don't expect him to step in for Raiola unless the vet gets injured.

I do know this - the offense will have to step up to keep up with New Orleans. That Saints defense is pretty bad, but the Lions just don't have an offensive playmaker without CJ in the lineup.

***

Not much to say about the Wings yet. They won their first game, getting the game winner on the power play (an area of weakness last season). Then they lost game #2 against the Ducks 3-2. The Ducks' first goal was Howard's fault when he misplayed the puck behind his own net. The game winner was thanks to the refs swallowing their whistles when Getzlaf hooked Kronwall to steal the puck in Detroit's end. Stuff happens, what are you gonna do?

Nyquist is the goals leader with 2 thru 2 games (on pace for 80!) and Franzen is the points leader with 3 assists. Datsyuk is still out with a shoulder.

***

The Pistons are in the preseason, so I'll keep this short as well. Drummond looks good, shooting 9 for 9 in his last game and hitting shots as far out as 12 feet (now if he can just get that to translate to the free throw line). KCP continued his hot streak from the end of last year by scoring 18, then 20, then 12 in the last game before going down with a knee injury of some type. Hope it isn't bad.

They don't make revisionist history like they used to

I had a dental appointment Wednesday afternoon, so I was driving around when the Rich Rod bomb hit Detroit sports radio. An article posted on ESPN featured the former Michigan HC, during which he reflected on his time in the maize and blue.

(On a personal side note, that was the least agonizing dental check up I've had in a while. The dentist commented on my pristine teeth, asking if I'd significantly changed my diet or something. The first time I'd gone to see him I had several cavities. At that point I had gone about 4 years in between check ups, so I thought that might be the reason. But then I got to thinking, and the most significant change in my life between then & now was when I got married. My marriage has had a ripple effect on every aspect of my life, changing it for the better in all sorts of ways. I don't always think of them as they occur, but it's nice to see these little reminders. Anyway, back to guy-stuff...)

Rodriguez basically said that he never got a chance to succeed at Michigan because there were people behind the scenes sabotaging him. This statement is bolstered by the fact that he started successful programs at West Virginia and now at Arizona, schools not traditionally known as football powers. So, is there something there? Was Rich Rod merely a victim of some old guard backlash?

Well, kinda. Maybe. A little. Ok, probably more than a little.

The so-called "bomb" hit during 97.1 The Ticket's Valenti & Foster show. Mike Valenti bleeds for no team like he bleeds for the Spartans, and he relishes the opportunity to educate Michigan fans on how far their (our) program has fallen, from time to time. Rich Rod was a bad fit (even Valenti doesn't try to deny that), there were signs that Rich Rod's tenure was being undermined (the book Three and Out describes this whole saga in better detail):

• Rich Rod wanted his DC from West Virginia, Jeff Casteel, to come with him to Ann Arbor, only Michigan refused to pony up the $600k it was going to take to get Casteel. Since Casteel followed Rich Rod to Arizona (and is coaching a pretty good defense there) and Brady Hoke's DC is making $750k, the hand of a saboteur may be at work here (btw, The Hand of A Saboteur sounds like the name of a 1930's spy movie)
• There was significant player exodus following Rodriguez's hire, which indicates a lack of support within the program. Reportedly Lloyd Carr advised QB Ryan Mallett to transfer to another school, and also had a meeting with the players stating he would sign their transfer papers if they wanted out. More on Rich Rod's side of this later, but the main thing is that when Brady Hoke needed his incumbent QB to stay, Denard Robinson stuck with the maize & blue because everyone was pulling for Hoke
• The practice violations thing... I didn't like Rich Rod at the time and even I thought it was ridiculous. When a player narcs on a coach about violations, it's usually a personal vendetta between the player and that coach. When multiple players do it, there's got to be someone organizing them. Word was, it was Lloyd Carr. Again, contrast with all the former players getting behind Hoke, despite The Morris Incident and his crappy coaching

I need to read this book Three and Out but based on this excerpt, Michigan is reaping what is sowed. Now Rodriguez isn't entirely faultless here, a topic I covered a week ago but I'll rehash here with the benefit of a little more knowledge (oh what a fool I was, if I only knew then what I know now, blah blah blah):

• Rodriguez didn't really try very hard to keep players from the previous regime. Yeah, Lloyd was undermining him from the start, but he didn't exactly hold up a boom box playing Peter Gabriel outside their dorms, pleading them to stay... It was more of a "sorry you're going, don't let the door hit you on the way out"
• A lot of the players who transferred from Michigan gave reasons like "it's not the same here as it used to be" and "Michigan lost its family culture", things like that. Apparently Rodriguez's coaching staff could teach sailors a few phrases
• He was woefully ignorant of the history, traditions, etc. of Michigan football, which was probably the biggest sin in the eyes of the average fan. You know, things like this happened...
• Not exactly a great recruiter, despite his ratings, and ostracized the in-state HS coaches

All told, Rodriguez probably walked in the door in Ann Arbor with a knife in his back. It still doesn't mean he was the right fit. Revisionists will take his record at WZ and AZ, compare with UM & say "it's not your fault", but that isn't entirely the case.

Suppose that Rodriguez came into Michigan with the rails greased. He gets his ideal DC, Carr tells Mallett to stick it out instead of telling him to look for greener pastures... Rodriguez still did everything wrong his first year. He tried to implement a drastically different offense AND defense without the personnel to do so, he alienated the fan base by not embracing the Tradition of Michigan (and it is possible to radically change things without ignoring tradition, Rich Rod just never figured out how to do that), and he failed to continue Michigan's good relationships with local HS coaches. He always seemed to have good recruiting classes, but the best in-state recruits went elsewhere.

If we were comparing strictly coaching acumen, Rich Rod laps Hokemania in the first mile. It's hard to say what might have happened had the old guard at Michigan welcomed Rodriguez with open arms, they way they did with Hoke. His first year would've been better, certainly. The defense wouldn't have been the worst in football with Casteel running the show. But Rodriguez still would have been wrong. Not because he wasn't a "Michigan man", but simply because he's not a "big program" coach.

The blog Good Bull Hunting speculates that Rich Rod would've failed at Alabama as well, had he accepted that job in 2006 instead of taking the Michigan job in 2007 (I know you're all salivating at the idea of a Nick Saban tenure at Michigan... sorry). Players still would have left, even if the old guard was still on Rich Rod's side. He was too different too soon. He was kind of a slime ball. He and his coaching staff swore a ton, even for football coaches. There are two different schools of thought football coaches take with language - 1) the drill sargeant from Full Metal Jacket who is abusive and curses a blue streak, and 2) the disciplinarian who makes you do down-ups for every eff bomb (my middle school coaches largely fell into the 1st category while my HS coaches were mainly in the 2nd). Carr didn't swear too much, Rodriguez did/does (doesn't seem like a big difference but it speaks to a whole mindset). And that wasn't the only difference. I got the feeling that even if Rodriguez had the full support of Carr & Co, there would have still been a high attrition rate. Look at the number of Rich Rod's own recruits that jumped ship... 8 of his 4-star recruits transferred out of the program (counting Forcier, who was really kicked off the team by Rodriguez first).

So, wistfully look at Rich Rod at Arizona, but remember that he's at least 50% responsible for his own demise at Michigan. This doesn't absolve the Establishment at Michigan from the current state of affairs. The hiring of Brady Hoke was a farce, and David Brandon should bear a large portion of the blame for that. If Michigan has a prayer at nabbing a top coaching candidate this winter, Brandon has to be out the door and the hiring process has be much better. The people calling the shots at Michigan have to hold themselves to their own standards and stop with the political maneuvering. The program is going down the toilet and they're fighting over who gets to be king of the midden heap.

Closing It Out

This serves me right. As soon as I talk up Stafford, he turns in a Bad Stafford performance (yep, that's him at #22 in QBR for the week). Bad Stafford, for the uninitiated, takes bad sacks, throws hard and inaccurate passes, fumbles from time to time, and gets intercepted because he throws hard and inaccurate passes. Calvin Johnson can boost a Bad Stafford performance into the Mediocre Stafford range, but unfortunately CJ had a bad wheel and was ineffective all day. He probably shouldn't have dressed, to tell the truth.

With a Bad Stafford suiting up, basically no CJ (and no Joique, and later no Reggie Bush), the offense was BAD. Buffalo's defense is actually pretty good, but Detroit's so-called "high-powered offense" should have been able to muster more that 1 touchdown. Seriously, the offense was shut out after the 1st quarter. Setting aside the kicking issue for one second, that is HUGELY problematic. Here is a summary of the Lions' drives from the 2nd quarter onward:

I'd like to point out that the Lions had 2 drives that started in Buffalo territory. The first was a 3 & out, the 2nd was Stafford's interception. The kicking failures overshadowed the failure of the offense to get into the red zone, excepting the one TD drive. No drive lasted longer than 57 yards.

The Lions as a whole played good enough to win (barely), but for the kicking game. 9 points were taken off the board by missing 3 long-ish FGs. The average conversion rate on FGs that long is about 80%. What happened is like Chauncey Billups getting fouled on a 3-pt attempt at the buzzer and then missing all 3 free throws. About halfway down in this Bill Barnwell piece, he breaks down how unlikely (and unlucky) Detroit has been. If Lions kickers had hit all their FGs, they would likely be undefeated right now.

Suggestions have been made on who the kicker du jour should be, since the new guy is clearly out the door. My recommendation for the next kicker tryout is to have guys kick against a rush. Line up the FG unit like you would in a game, pump in crowd noise, and have 11 guys try to block the kick. That should simulate the gametime pressure enough to weed out the weak-kneed kickers.

***

The Tigers got swept in the first round of the MLB playoffs, exhibiting similar weaknesses as the Lions had on Sunday. A dearth of offense, and catastrophic failure from one position group. Kicking in the NFL is a lot like late-inning relief pitching in baseball. It's a specialized position, you typically see the kicker/reliever in action for a small portion of the game, but their contributions are often critical to winning the game.

In game 1 & 2 the Tigers' bullpen blew up in the 8th inning. Both times. Then on Sunday, the offense left their good bats at home. Oh, and they pitched to Nelson Cruz.

Cruz killed them in 2011, and he followed up with equally impressive numbers this post-season. With Texas he hit .364 with 6 HR and 13 RBI in 6 games, accounting for 14 of Texas' runs (about 36% of the offense). In this series he accounted for exactly 1/3 of Baltimore's scoring, including both runs in the 2-1 clincher on Sunday. For his career he's hit .297 in the playoffs with 16 Hr in 37 games. That prorates to 70 HR over a season which is INSANE, given the fact that the competition is so much better. Here's an idea: WALK HIM.

Really the story of this post-season was the bullpen wetting the bed. In the game 1 debacle, Cabrera had just brought the Tigers to within a run of tying the game at the top of the 8th. Unfortunately Final score: 12-3, Baltimore. Then in game 2, Detroit carried a 6-3 lead into the 8th. It didn't stick. Some of this had to do with Ausmus's insistence on sticking with Joba Chamberlain as his 8th inning guy, despite him carrying in a 5.82 ERA from his last 24 appearances of the regular season (ERA for the Division Series? 108.00). Still, the bullpen as a whole (depite Joe Nathan, oddly enough) killed this Tigers team.

Andre Drummond is pretty sweet. How did we get him again?

 

I was reading an article about young NBA players getting ready to exit their initial rookie deals, and the name Thomas Robinson came up. So did Austin Rivers. That got me thinking, the 2012 NBA draft REALLY worked out well for the Pistons. Let's take a look.

Going into the draft, it was generally accepted that Detroit needed an athletic big who could protect the rim. The Pistons were picking 9th, right in their usual range. In 2010 the got Greg Monroe with the 7th overall pick, in 2011 they picked Brandon Knight with the 8th pick, then in 2013 they drafted Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 8th, and this summer they landed in the 9th spot again, costing Detroit the pick. Anthony Davis was the presumptive #1 in this draft, and the player who ticked off everything on the Pistons' wishlist. He blocked a crazy amount of shots, had a decent offensive game, and led Kentucky to an NCAA Championship. Detroit failed to win the lottery, so he was out.

General concensus was that the Pistons were either taking John Henson, a poor man's Anthony Davis with less upside, or Meyers Leonard, an athletic 7-footer who was more offense and less defense. We already had a less athletic, more skilled version of Leonard in Greg Monroe, so I was busy talking myself into John Henson when word broke that the Pistons might end up with Andre Drummond. Drummond had been projected to go as high as #2 overall, but questions about his motor and under-performing expectations in his freshman season led to a drop in his draft stock. Still, a number of dominoes would have to fall for him to still be available for the Pistons at 9th. Here's how it happened:

1. New Orleans takes Anthony Davis. No shocker there. Davis had a pretty good rookie season (out-shone by the revelation of Damian Lilliard, who we'll get to in a moment) and followed that up with a stellar sophomore season. Then this summer he was one of the USA's best players in the FIBA World Cup of Basketball. I'd say he's working out.
2. Charlotte takes Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. This was domino #1. Kansas PF Thomas Robinson was projected to go 2nd by a lot of people. The Bobcats needed a big, but they also needed a wing player. They decided to draft Scottie Pippen without a jump shot. This hasn't improved, as MKG is an absolute offensive disaster when he strays further than 3 ft away from the hoop.
3. Washington takes Bradley Beal. The Wizards had acquired Nene in a trade with Denver the previous season and paired him with Emeka Okafor, who they had picked up in a trade 8 days before the draft. They weren't looking to add another big. Beal was a good prospect, and followed an injury-riddled rookie season with a solid 2nd year.
4. Cleveland takes Dion Waiters. This was the first "reach". Cleveland had needs at the wing spot as well as at center, and Waiters was merely an average-shooting shooting guard. Harrison Barnes was on the board, who I liked, as were Thomas Robinson and of course Drummond. Waiters has turned from an average shooting college player to an average shooting pro. He hasn't lit it up like you might hope a #4 overall pick would, but he's been ok. He's kind of been a pain in the ass though.
5. Sacramento takes Thomas Robinson. The word was if Robinson was gone, Sacramento was taking Drummond. Charlotte and Cleveland both passed on Robinson for wing players, so the door was open for Sacramento. Robinson is really the first "bust" in this draft, getting traded twice and averaging less than 5 ppg and less than 5 rpg over his first 2 seasons.
6. Portland takes Damian Lillard. A risky pick at the time, but one with a high upside. Lillard had absolutely lit it up his senior year at Weber State and was considered the top PG in the draft. On the other hand, there were concerns about his level of competition and that he might be more of a combo guard. The verdict? Portland got a steal. Lillard won the ROY, and then re-upped by improving in his 2nd year and did pretty well in the playoffs.
7. Golden State takes Harrison Barnes. Barnes was the guy I wanted if Drummond wasn't available. A brand new SF wasn't high on Joe D's wish list because hey, we still got Tayshaun. I was of a different opinion. Barnes was one of these guys who was supposed to be a stud, only it never happened. He was a good college player, but never the great player he was supposed to be. That's kind of been the case in the NBA as well. He plays good defense, but his offense is kind of... meh.
8. Toronto takes Terrence Ross. They had taken centers Ed Davis and Jonas Valanciunas in successive drafts, so the Raptors definitely weren't going big here. Still, Terrence Ross was a BIG reach. Ross was another average-shooting shooting guard, and his collegiate level of competition was much lower than Waiters'. He's turned into a 3-pt gunner, averaging 10 ppg by mainly spotting up in the corner.
9. Detroit takes Andre Drummond.
   This was as excited as I've been about a Piston draft pick since... ok, it's been a while. Very few times have I felt like Dumars made the right pick. Tayshaun, Monroe, and Drummond. The kid's rookie season was extremely frustrating, because coach Lawrence Frank insisted on starting Jason Maxiell over Drummond for most of the season, and he limited Drummond's minutes to less than 20 per game during the first half of the season. He led a suprisingly strong Pistons' bench unit during his rookie year and finished strong, looking good for year 2. Drummond delivered. He averaged a 13 & 13 with some blocks & steals, and in April unleashed this:
   That's right, a 26 & 26 game he dropped on Chicago paired with 3 steals, a 23 & 18 game on Brooklyn, a 22 & 13 game on OKC, a 19 & 20 game on Boston and a 19 & 17 game on Atlanta. That is a crazy stretch of basketball. If the Pistons had been at all relevant at the time, this would have gotten more ink.
   
   Notable Duds: Thomas Robinson, obviously, as already explained. The guy taken with the pick after Drummond was Austin Rivers, who had maybe the worst rookie season in history. The strangest case, however, was Houston's #16 pick Royce White. Due to some anxiety/OCD issues, White had some weird contract stipulations and never played his rookie year. He got traded, then released. The next year he logged a TOTAL of 9 minutes over 3 games with Sacramento, generating zero significant stats and then was released again.

Out of the 2012 draft, Davis, Drummond and Lillard all seemed posed to become super stars. Beal and Waiters might make it as lesser stars as well, and there have been a couple others from that draft that look like players (Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger, Mo Harkless, etc). This was a deep draft.

 

After whiffing with Brandon Knight the year before (when Kemba Walker, Kawhi Leonard, and the Manimal were all available), Austin Daye in 2009 (Ty Lawson), and virtually every other 1st rounder that came after Tayshaun Prince (going by Win Shares, only two 1st-rounders from the 2002 draft had better careers than Tay), getting Drummond was awesome. It was the perfect combination of being lucky, being right, and having a lot of other people be wrong. In a really deep draft, Detroit got the 2nd best player. The amazing thing is, as good as he's been, he's getting better.

Michigan Men

The 3 running story lines right now in sports in this state are FIRE BRADY HOKE! FIRE BRANDON!, the Tigers happen to be in the playoffs with a 4th consecutive division title, and Matt Stafford looks like a much better QB this year. In order:

This whole Hoke-thing needs some perspective. Brady Hoke screwed up. However, as a million people have pointed out already, this would be 1,000 times less of a deal if Michigan were 5-0 or 4-1 right now instead of 2-3. The Morris Incident (which has swelled to the point where I'm capitalizing it, giving it the definite article, and referring to it like it was a morality play starring Henry Fonda), while showing deplorable regard for player safety, wasn't an offense bad enough for Hoke to be fired over. It's not even Exhibit A in the case to fire Hoke (mgoblog lists it as the 3rd thing currently driving fans away). But it is evidence of a larger problem, like how seeing 1 cockroach indicates a rampant infestation, or a more common cliche that is escaping me right now.

Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks Hoke's headset phobia contributed to his failure in The Morris Incident. This is hardly surprising, because this is an obvious conclusion for everybody except Brady Hoke, who still plans on "coaching" sans headset. In David Brandon's 1 AM press release yesterday, he made several references to "communication problems", which could be a thinly veiled jab at Hoke's preference not to wear the headset.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was a shot at Hoke, since everything Brandon did seemed designed to undercut Hoke. The real problem is that Hoke continues to coach as though he were still a defensive line coach.

Rich Rodriguez compared the ire during his stint as the HC at Michigan vs. the current unrest with Hoke and said a couple of things that I actually agree with. First, the current problems are very different from the problems during the Rich Rod era. Second, the whole "Michigan Man" thing is a myth. Here's where we digress:

1. Rich Rod would like to act like he was a victim of circumstance. No, he just had a whole series of flaws that made him just as unqualified for the job as Hoke is. They're just different flaws (for the most part). He alienated his local recruiting base, he was notoriously system-oriented to a fault, and he was a slime ball. Hoke is out of depth as a big program HC, doesn't game-plan well or effectively utilize the talent on the roster (hey, that's actually pretty similar to Rich Rod!), and he's an oblivious idiot.
2. I agree that there's a misconception that you have to be a "Michigan Man" to succeed as head coach here. However, it's important that if the guy hired to be the Michigan HC has no Michigan connections, he tries to become a "Michigan Man" upon arrival. This is the main difference between Bo Schembechler's version of "not a Michigan Man" and Rich Rod's. Rodriguez didn't establish good relationships with the local high school coaches, and the culture he established fell well below the standard carried by Schembechler and Lloyd Carr (remember, Rich Rod is a slimeball).

Speculation has already started on who would be the best fit to replace Hoke, but a question of who will be doing the hiring remains. AD David Brandon is a 95% shot to be fired between now and Christmas. This is probably the only thing keeping Brady Hoke in his job, since a mid-season firing followed by a poor finish to the season would be viewed as 100% David Brandon's fault. Looking at who Brandon could/should have hired instead of Rich Rod & Hoke is a lot like talking about who Joe Dumars could have drafted instead of Darko. This the black arrow in the quiver of those who want Brandon gone NOW. One notable name that Brandon passed over in favor of Hokemania is Kevin Sumlin. Whoops.

***

Now that the Royals have squeaked past the A's in the AL Wild Card game, eyes have turned to the rest of the AL playoffs. Tim Kurkjian has less faith in the Tigers than I do, but despite Detroit's penchant for offensive no-showing vs. junkball pitchers, I still think they get by Baltimore. The Orioles' defense is less good without Machado playing at 3rd, their offense is less good without Weiters, Chris Davis, and Machado, and Cabrera & Verlander seem more like their old selves than they have all year.

Miggy's focused, I like their odds.

***

Matt Stafford is experiencing a minor renaissance. He's still among the league leaders in passing yards, that hasn't changed, but it's the way he's getting those video game stats that is so impressive. His QB rating is barely above average, but QB rating tells only half the story (any system that rates Brian Hoyer & Austin Davis over Stafford is flawed). QBR (or total QB rating) takes into consideration mobility, the contributions of teammates on a given play, clutch plays, and so on. By QBR, Stafford is the 8th rated NFL quarterback through the first 4 games. That's more like it.

The most notable change in Stafford's QBR is his Run EPA (estimated points added when he runs it). Last year Stafford registered a Run EPA of -1.5. This year he's posting a 0.8 through 4 games, which extrapolates out to 3.2 for a season. For reference, a running QB would post a number between 10-20, a guys who uses his feet well might get anywhere from 3-7, and the worst guy in the league last year (Carson Palmer) posted a -2.2. Basically Stafford went from a D runner to a C+.

His Pass EPA is much improved also, putting him #2 in that category instead of middle of the pack. The one area that's down this year is Sack EPA, which as we all know is a result of a worse offensive line. That should straighten itself out, with LaAdrian Waddle coming back this week. That RT spot has been rough since week 1.

And now for some good news...

Enough with the depressing BS, the Lions won on Sunday and so did the Tigers, vaulting them into their 4th Central Division title and a 1st round matchup with the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles are tough, and they're a lot like that Rangers team the Tigers saw in the 2011 ALCS. Nelson Cruz is back, for one thing, but on top of that this Orioles team features lots of homers, little in the way of team speed, and good relievers. Outside of Chris Tillman and Wing-Yin Chen, the starting rotation gets a little shaky though. The hitters to look out for are Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, and... I don't know, Nick Markakis? Slugger Chris Davis is still suspended for amphetamines and will miss the series. 3B Manny Machado had knee surgery and is done for the year.

Even though this lineup isn't chock full of threats, Cruz, Jones and Pearce are all pretty good, and the Orioles' defense is among the best in the league (while Detroit's is nigh to the bottom). Fortunately, the Tigers' main starters got on a role (finally) down the stretch and will give Baltimore's sluggers plenty to handle. Ausmus announced the post-season rotation of Scherzer, Verlander, Price, and Porcello. The last month was not kind to Porcello, with 3 of his 5 starts lasting less than 4 innings and yielding no less than 4 earned runs each. His main problem lately has been inconsistency & leaving his splitter too high. If he can correct that and make these guys hit it on the ground, he'll have little trouble.

You wouldn't know it from the minor power outage vs. the Twins last week, but the Tigers' offense did pretty well in September. The team batted .292, scoring 124 runs, hitting 29 HR and netting a .783 OPS. Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and JD Martinez hit 8, 5, & 6 HR for the month respectively, and all hit over .350. Baltimore was less good in September, although Cruz and Pearce both hit well. This will be a good series, but I predict the Tigers' squeak this one out in 4 games.

***

The Lions went out Sunday and won a game they were supposed to win, despite having Calvin Johnson on a limited basis. ESPN has them ranked 8th, which feels about right. Since the Giants game, this team hasn't dominated a game on either side of the ball. Still, Stafford played one of those games that isn't super sexy but brings home the 'W'.

As ugly as the game was, I was proud of the win. The running game was anemic but worked when it had to. The defense gave up more that it should have but locked down when necessary. And Detroit took care of the ball.

They've got the Buffalo Bills this week, and that's a good thing. Buffalo is switching QBs, and as bad as EJ Manuel has been, the move to Orton scares me not (that link is one of the top 5 youtube video titles, btw). Buffalo has a strong-ish running game, but they don't defend the pass well. They really should be 1-3, but they stole that week 1 game in Chicago. It's a home game for Detroit, they should look to make a statement.

*** 

Speaking of making statements, embattled Michigan AD David Brandon decided to release a statement at 1 o'clock in the morning to the media regarding the status of Shane Morris. It turns out that Morris WAS concussed after the hit to the head on Saturday, which came as a surprise to NO ONE, except maybe embattled Michigan coach Brady Hoke. 

The whole Michigan football program is embattled, from fans, opposing teams, local and national media outlets... They aren't producing on the field, and then this whole Shane Morris thing happened. I covered Hoke's problems ad nauseum in my previous post, so I'll keep this short. Hoke was caught with his pants down. The Shane Morris thing happened because he's clueless on the sideline and disconnected from the bigger picture.

It is well documented that Brady Hoke doesn't wear a headset on the sidelines. This is a HUGE point of contention between Hoke and his critics, and rightly so. It's forced his offensive and defensive coordinators to roam the sidelines behind him so they can communicate strategy with Hoke. As a result of this Luddite coaching philosophy, OC Nussmeier missed the hit on Morris that should've removed him from the game. Hoke wasn't in communication with anyone who had a good view because HE DOESN'T WEAR A HEADSET.

Communication being a major problem these days at Michigan, one presumes Brandon might mandate Hoke wear a headset from now on. If not to help him stay aware of the flow of the game, at least he can have a direct line to someone who's watching the game. Hoke missed the hit on Shane Morris, thinks this team can win a Big Ten Championship, and thinks they lost to Minnesota through simple lack of execution. I don't know what he's watching, but he must have missed Saturday's game.

Hoke Must Go.

First things first: Brady Hoke must go.

There has been a lot of outrage (and rightly so) over Hoke's decision to not immediately remove Shane Morris from the game after he had sustain what was likely a concussion. THEN when Gardner had to leave the game for 2 plays when his helmet came off (why these guys are allowed to wear their helmets without properly strapping them on is beyond me), Hoke sent Morris (again, probably concussed) back in to face the wolves instead of having his 3rd stringer hand off to Smith or something. These aren't necessarily things that get coaches fired outright, but they are indicative of a larger problem.

Hoke is clueless. Let me go back to the week leading up to the game over the Little Brown Jug. I know this is a bad Michigan team, but I still expected them to pull out a win, because it isn't a BAD Michigan team. Or so I thought. Hoke announced a potential change in starting QB for this game, which was understandable because Gardner was pretty bad vs. Utah. Here's a news flash: Shane Morris was WAY worse! I figured this was a manufactured QB controversy, engineered to light a fire under Devin Gardner to squeeze a game out of him like we saw last year. I was giving Hoke too much credit.

Brady Hoke should have made Gardner fight for his job, then announce on game day that Gardner has his full confidence, or something. Gardner would've busted his ass! Again, you didn't need to be a college football insider to see that Shane Morris wasn't ready to face a Power 5 defense. This was proven in the stat sheet, but Hoke should've known that prior to kickoff. As the game went along, it became a countdown to when he would pull the trigger on Gardner. Morris's halftime numbers were 6-10 passing for 41 yards. The passing game was window dressing. Then the 3rd quarter happened, Michigan failed to move the ball AT ALL, Morris going 1-7 for 8 yards with 2 fumbles (1 recovered) and an interception.



Prior to the roughing play, Morris had been limping due to the cumulative effect of a couple sacks where his ankle had twisted awkwardly. So putting aside his poor play, Hoke could've used that as an excuse to pull him. He didn't, god knows why. Then the hit happened. A defensive player launched himself at Shane Morris and his helmet hit Morris in the chin. Hoke should have been on the alert, wary of concussion symptoms. Morris looked so groggy and out of sorts that he needed to be supported by one of his linemen to make it to the huddle. Yet Hoke left him in for another play, then reinserted him in the game a few plays later when Gardner had to come out. Here's how he defended his actions:

"I don’t know if he might’ve had a concussion or not. I don’t know that and that wasn’t something- Shane’s a pretty competitive, tough kid and Shane wanted to be the quarterback and so believe me, if he didn’t want to be he would’ve come to the sideline or stayed down."

Allow me to paraphrase - the thought that Shane Morris might have had a concussion didn't enter Hoke's head, and if Morris HAD wanted to come out, it would only mean that the kid didn't really want it enough. Later, when it became evident that this was clearly a THING, Hoke released this statement:

"The safety of our student-athletes is always our top priority. We generally never discuss the specifics of a student-athlete's medical care, but Shane Morris was removed from yesterday's game against Minnesota after further aggravating an injury to his leg that he sustained earlier in the contest.

"He was evaluated by our experienced athletic trainers and team physicians, and we're confident proper medical decisions were made. The University of Michigan has a distinguished group of Certified Athletic Trainers and team physicians who are responsible for determining whether or not a player is physically able to play. Our coaches have no influence or authority to make determinations if or when an injured player returns to competition. The health and welfare of our student-athletes is and will continue to be a top priority."

So, let me get this straight - Shane Morris was removed because his leg injury was reaggravated when he was hit in the head? He wasn't limping after the head hit, he was staggering because his equilibrium was knocked out of whack! Which, by the way, is a concussion symptom. This statement is clearly a CYA move by Hoke, saying Morris was removed due to a leg injury, because Hoke didn't follow the NCAA concussion protocol.

The NCAA is pretty clear on concussions. Once a player exhibits symptoms, he/she must be removed from competition and examined by a medical professional. If a concussion is diagnosed, the athlete can only return after being medically cleared. Concussion assessments must include "balance evaluation", which Morris certainly would have failed. I'm assuming Morris didn't undergo the concussion tests after being pulled because in the post-game, Hoke stated that he "didn't know" if Morris sustained a concussion or not. If that's true then no concussion tests were done, because a concussion expert would have had to clear Morris to play.

Let me get back to the larger problem, that Hoke is clueless. A tactic he's taken in pressers when a reporter has asked a question he didn't want to hear is to question the question and claim ignorance. It's never Hoke's fault or something he has control over. He has to check the tape. He has to hear back from the medical professionals. He'll have to convene with his assistant coaches and make a decision later. Here's an interaction in the same presser between Hoke and a reporter:

There was a stretch there in the third quarter where Shane had a fumble that he recovered, then an interception, then a fumble that he lost. Any idea what was going on during that stretch?

“He had a fumble that he recovered, and what was the other thing?”

Interception.

“That was tipped at the line of scrimmage, right? Okay. I think obviously we have to have better ball security.” 

 The reporter is referring to a sequence in the 3rd quarter when Shane Morris fumbled to himself on one drive, then threw an interception, then lost a fumble that looked like the ball just fell out of his hands. Hoke acted like he only remembered the fumble that Morris recovered, ignored the fumble that he didn't, and blamed the interception on a tipped pass, like it was a freak play or something. All Michigan fans know that passes tipped at the line of scrimmage can be the QB's fault as well as the offensive line's.

When asked what the team's goals are going forward, Hoke said, "I think this team can still win the championship." I can only assume he means a Big Ten championship, since the last time a 3-loss team won the National Title was... never. I know Hoke HAS to say he believes in this team, but the way he said it sounded extremely oblivious to reality. I have a real problem with the way he breaks down a loss - "we didn't execute", "we didn't tackle", "we didn't play very well", "I'm disappointed in the way we played"... This is all code for "it wasn't my fault".

Here's the problem - this loss was 90% coaching. Poor offensive game planning - this new offense is run with no regard to the abilities of Michigan's players, nor does it consider the strengths/weaknesses of the opposing defense. A number of people have pointed out Poor defensive preparation - they weren't ready to face Minnesota's starting QB, despite the fact that he hadn't been ruled out. Michigan failed to name their QB for the game all week but were confounded by Minnesota doing the EXACT SAME THING. On top of that, the defense seemed fooled by Minnesota's basic running plays, as though they practiced against a different offense. It wasn't a tackling issue, it was a not-being-in-position-to-tackle issue. Poor personnel management - Hoke handled the QB situation entirely wrong, since he named the wrong guy as starter and undermined confidence in the best QB on his roster (who is, sadly, Gardner). Then he proceeded to muck things up by seeming to not care enough about the most important player on the field to have him checked out to see if he could stand on one leg without falling over.

Hoke has to go. He NEVER holds himself accountable, he's failed to develop a program in 4 years, and the future looks as bleak as it did when Rich Rod ran things. Additionally, the Shane Morris incident is a blacker mark on Hoke's record than Rich Rod's practice time violations. Hoke is less detestable than Rich Rod, but that doesn't make him better. Instead of being a slimy character, like Rodriguez was, Hoke is willfully ignorant. He appears unaware of the day-to-day operations of his team and oblivious to the status of his players. Right now he's claiming Shane Morris didn't have a concussion that he knows of, and that the medical professionals will release their own statement, presumably with actual facts in it and stuff.

I'm not saying Michigan should fire Hoke (or AD David Brandon) right now, but they should start sending Jim Harbaugh weekly fruit baskets.