Lions on the Brink

The Lions were 6-4 and coming off of 3-straight wins going into the Thanksgiving Day Game vs. the Vikings. A win vs. the Vikes (who they'd beaten in a VERY low-scoring affair in week 4) would've put the Lions in a favorable position to win the Division and make the playoffs. Since then, they've dropped 2 straight and basically need to win out to have a shot.

In the post-game presser after the most recent loss, Caldwell took the blame for the slow starts that have plagued the Lions this year, leading to several of their (currently) 6 losses. A better start would've probably led to wins against the Falcons in week 3 and the Vikings on Thanksgiving, and Caldwell's decision-making (not kicking FGs) & the red-zone play calling in the Steelers game led to that one being a loss as well. With better coaching, the Lions would be sitting at 9-3 right now and leading Minnesota in the divisional race. 

I don't want to absolve the players in this. Stafford's stats are deceptively good (per his reputation, so maybe it's not that "deceptive"), but he fails to move the chains at critical moments and for large stretches of the game. The Thanksgiving Day game was emblematic of this, with 6 of 11 drives lasting less than 5 plays and ending in either a punt or a turnover. That and the lack of scoring in the red zone (check out the Pts/RZ & TDs/RZ stats) can be laid at Stafford's feet, but I'm not sure how much is on him and how much is on the play calling...

JB Cooter has been less than stellar this year. For example, a sequence that directly led to the loss vs. Pittsburgh went like this:

• 2nd & goal at the 1* - the defense lines up spread out, with a HUGE gap over the OG... a QB sneak would've plowed right in. Lions opt to throw, it's well covered, incomplete.
  * Washington should've scored on 1st down, only he failed to stretch for the goal line & was down at the 1 
• 3rd & goal at the 1 - the defense bunches up in the middle, (prime setup to throw), Detroit opts to run Washington off right tackle & gets stuffed.
• 4th & goal at the 1 - OK, the Lions have been stuffed on 2 straight plays at the 1. A FG would've given them the lead at that time... That's on Caldwell. But the pass play they drew up was abysmal, and Stafford got sacked.

One of my long-standing gripes with the Lions' playbook is that it does not seem to contain a goal line play that almost every NFL offense utilizes to great effect - line up for power run, 2 TE, play-action, and hit the TE in the end zone on an short flat/out route. We should know this play. We get hit with some version of this every time we play the Packers, for example (the clip below is not GB, I realize, but it was the best example I could find).

Great play-action play down on the goal line. Naked off Power and Y runs delay flat. pic.twitter.com/wXk0mAQogQ

— CoachesCollaborate (@coachescollab) June 14, 2017

Given how bad our running game is, especially in short yardage situations, you'd think Cooter would add this little wrinkle into our offense. I don't think I've ever seen us run this. Or very many deceptive plays in general. Or very many plays that made me think, man, that was a WELL DESIGNED PLAY. So for all his rep as a "Stafford whisperer", Jim Bob has failed to demonstrate any level of innovation in our offense, and we seem to be as obvious as we were under Joe Lombardi's tutelage.

A quick analysis will show that in the Lions' 12 opening drives this season, 1 has resulted in a touchdown, 2 have resulted in FGs, and the rest have been punts or turnovers. The first drive is the one most scripted by the coaches, and usually planned out almost entirely prior to the game. When an opening drive fails so frequently, it's usually a result of coaching. Here are a few more facts about the opening drives:

• Average 5.7 offensive plays (#21 in NFL), not counting punts
• Average 23.8 yds, good for 27th in the NFL
• Average of 1.08 pts, counting a TD as 7 (tied for #21 in NFL)
• 3 of the Lions' opening drives have ended in a turnover, tied for 2nd worst in the NFL (not necessarily an indicator of bad coaching, but worth pointing out)
• The 1st play has been a running play on 6 out of 12 times
• The 2nd play has been a running play on 6 out of 12 times
• Not counting sacks, 31 out of 37 passing plays have been described as "short" passes (usually inside 5 yds from the line)

In short, the Lions are one of the worst offenses in the NFL on their opening drive, and the bulk of that is on coaching. They don't game plan very well. They start out VERY conservatively, and they are very predictable.

Part of the problem is the Lions are a terrible running team, but they use their running game as though they were the '72 Dolphins. Run out of passing formations. Pass out of running formations. Run a LOT more off tackle (Abdullah is fumble prone, yet they like to run him up the middle for some reason)...

In fact, check this out: the Lions are a TERRIBLE running team, but their best success is on the outside - 24th in NFL off the left end, 30th off LT, 30th up middle, 32nd off RT, 20th off left end... Yet 33% of their carries go up the middle, and only 36 % of their carries go off the ends, where they're most effective. It's weird how this coaching staff has constructed an offense that insists on playing to the Lions' weaknesses, all in the name of "balance". 

Look, by all means, run the ball 40% of the time. But stop running it like we're a power running team. And telegraphing the run by being predictable sort of defeats the purpose of attempting a balanced attack.