The Case For/Against Jim Caldwell

The Lions' season is essentially over, with one meaningless game left to play against the Packers, who are without Aaron Rodgers and are in the same boat as the Lions, playoffs-wise. The season has been lackluster and disappointing, and Caldwell's job has been called into question. Should his name be on the list of ousted head coaches on Black Monday?

The Case FOR Caldwell

Jim Caldwell has only been the Lions' head coach for 4 seasons, and of those four he's made the playoffs twice as a wild card and has only 1 losing season (2015, at 7-9). The Lions' 11 wins in 2014 are the most the team has had since 1991. This season was plagued by injuries to key players on both the offensive and defensive lines, which provides an excuse for missing the playoffs this year.

Record aside, Caldwell has been a stabilizing influence on the team. He is notoriously even-tempered (except when talking with reporters), and has often brought positivity and some level of personal accountability to the team. His calm demeanor was a stark contrast from his predecessor Jim Schwartz, who was a bit of a side show with his sideline antics (ironically, Schwartz once mocked Harbaugh for challenging a scoring play, then made the same mistake himself in a later game, which ended up costing Detroit a win. We're well out of the Schwartz era, believe me).

It's also worth pointing out Matt Stafford's development under Jim Caldwell. Whether Caldwell himself is responsible or if it's Jim Bob Cooter, Caldwell was the first coach to bring a dedicated QB coach for Stafford. The results were improved accuracy, fewer INTs, better running & pocket movement, but also fewer yards and more sacks. Take a look at the average of Stafford's last 3 seasons under Schwartz (which omits his rookie season and the injury season) vs. the 4 under Caldwell:

• Schwartz Era AVG Season: 
• 60.6% completions 
• 4,885 yards
• 30 TDs
• 17.3 INTs
• 87.1 passer rating
• Caldwell Era AVG Season:
• 64.5% completions
• 4,309.6 yards
• 26.4 TDs
• 11.4 INTs
• 93.3 passer rating

There are various factors that play into this, but ultimately Caldwell has had a positive impact on the Lions' most expensive asset. It's worth pointing out that we're comparing the impact of a BAD coach on Stafford vs. the impact of Caldwell (a mediocre coach) on Stafford. 

The Case AGAINST Caldwell

Caldwell is NOT a good coach. While his record has been markedly better that any other Lions HC in my memory, record isn't everything. His time here happens/ed to coincide with the prime of the best QB ever to play for Detroit in my lifetime. That's not nothing. 2 of the 4 years also happened to coincide with the best WR ever to play for the Lions... ever.

Caldwell also managed to benefit from major injuries to the starting QBs of each of the other 3 teams in the division, without (thankfully) having to deal with a similar injury to Stafford. Yet despite that fact, the Lions haven't won the division in his 4 years here. They haven't hosted or even won a playoff game, and each of their seasons ended in disappointing fashion. 

• 2014 - Lost final game of the regular season (finishing 11-5), missing out on the division and hosting a playoff game. Then lost playoff game in Dallas
• 2015 - Started season 0-5 before finally firing incompetent OC Joe Lombardi. Finished season winning final 3 games, which vaulted them out of the top of the draft (would've had a top 5 pick, probably either Ezekiel Elliot or Joey Bosa) down to 16th. Even going 2-1 would've resulted in a top 10 pick (Conklin, maybe). This is the worst possible way to win out.
• 2016 - Finished the season on a 0-3 run, but backed into the playoffs at 9-7 because Washington lost. The last 3 games were all against playoff teams (NYG, DAL & GB), but had they beaten the Packers, the Lions would've won the division and hosted their playoff game. Instead they had to go to Seattle and got creamed.
• 2017 - Needed to win out to make the playoffs. Instead, they dropped the 2nd to last game to a very poor Bengals team in one of the more pathetic efforts you'll see on the football field, managing less than 300 yds of offense, and allowing 26 points to one of the worst offenses in the league

Record aside, Caldwell has been a pretty poor game day coach. He doesn't have a good handle on when to challenge a call and when NOT to challenge a call. He's a terrible clock manager (which was his rep with the Colts), to the point where he's had to hire a guy to take over that aspect of the game. Caldwell is notoriously conservative when it comes to 4th & short situations (which probably cost them the WC game against the Cowboys), and when he DOES choose to go for it, it's usually the wrong decision (which definitely cost them this year against the Steelers).

In addition to being a poor call challenger, clock manager, and go-for-it guy, he's also a poor game planner. He rightfully took responsibility for the Lions' ineptitude in the first quarter this season. Rightfully because the coaches SCRIPT the play calls for the first couple of offensive series. He's been entirely unable to fix this problem, which dates back to last year. He hasn't been able to fix the running game (which dates back to when Barry left), which is somewhat on personnel, but it's also on scheme, which is the coach's responsibility. 

The play calling this year has been horrendous. This is mainly on JB Cooter for designing a predictable and conservative offense, but it should also be a referendum on Caldwell. He hired Joe Lombardi who was WORSE, and stuck with him FAR too long, until the 2015 season was a lost cause. Cooter seemed better only by comparison, as his offense failed to advance the ball and stretch the field, and ultimately got predictable as defenses became familiar. With the personnel we have, our offense should be running people out of the building. 

Conclusion

Caldwell isn't the worst coach in the world, but he's pretty mediocre. The team as currently constructed, with THIS quarterback, should make the playoffs 8 times out of 10. We're Lions fans, so we're not used to that expectation. We need to get over it, or the Lions will remain SOL. We have to expect better. Caldwell doesn't know how to fix this team, and he will definitely stick with JB Cooter for a season longer than he should, if Quinn lets him.

We need to stop comparing Caldwell to Jim Schwartz, Rod "0-16" Marinelli, and Marty "Take the Wind" Mornhinweg. We need to start comparing him to who's out there and who is potentially available. We can do better. Easily. And if you know that, why wait around and waste another year of Stafford's prime?

Thank him for 4 years and 2 playoff appearances, and show Caldwell to the door. If we don't do that, the Lions will continue to spin their wheels in mediocrity. 

Lions on the Brink

The Lions were 6-4 and coming off of 3-straight wins going into the Thanksgiving Day Game vs. the Vikings. A win vs. the Vikes (who they'd beaten in a VERY low-scoring affair in week 4) would've put the Lions in a favorable position to win the Division and make the playoffs. Since then, they've dropped 2 straight and basically need to win out to have a shot.

In the post-game presser after the most recent loss, Caldwell took the blame for the slow starts that have plagued the Lions this year, leading to several of their (currently) 6 losses. A better start would've probably led to wins against the Falcons in week 3 and the Vikings on Thanksgiving, and Caldwell's decision-making (not kicking FGs) & the red-zone play calling in the Steelers game led to that one being a loss as well. With better coaching, the Lions would be sitting at 9-3 right now and leading Minnesota in the divisional race. 

I don't want to absolve the players in this. Stafford's stats are deceptively good (per his reputation, so maybe it's not that "deceptive"), but he fails to move the chains at critical moments and for large stretches of the game. The Thanksgiving Day game was emblematic of this, with 6 of 11 drives lasting less than 5 plays and ending in either a punt or a turnover. That and the lack of scoring in the red zone (check out the Pts/RZ & TDs/RZ stats) can be laid at Stafford's feet, but I'm not sure how much is on him and how much is on the play calling...

JB Cooter has been less than stellar this year. For example, a sequence that directly led to the loss vs. Pittsburgh went like this:

• 2nd & goal at the 1* - the defense lines up spread out, with a HUGE gap over the OG... a QB sneak would've plowed right in. Lions opt to throw, it's well covered, incomplete.
  * Washington should've scored on 1st down, only he failed to stretch for the goal line & was down at the 1 
• 3rd & goal at the 1 - the defense bunches up in the middle, (prime setup to throw), Detroit opts to run Washington off right tackle & gets stuffed.
• 4th & goal at the 1 - OK, the Lions have been stuffed on 2 straight plays at the 1. A FG would've given them the lead at that time... That's on Caldwell. But the pass play they drew up was abysmal, and Stafford got sacked.

One of my long-standing gripes with the Lions' playbook is that it does not seem to contain a goal line play that almost every NFL offense utilizes to great effect - line up for power run, 2 TE, play-action, and hit the TE in the end zone on an short flat/out route. We should know this play. We get hit with some version of this every time we play the Packers, for example (the clip below is not GB, I realize, but it was the best example I could find).

Great play-action play down on the goal line. Naked off Power and Y runs delay flat. pic.twitter.com/wXk0mAQogQ

— CoachesCollaborate (@coachescollab) June 14, 2017

Given how bad our running game is, especially in short yardage situations, you'd think Cooter would add this little wrinkle into our offense. I don't think I've ever seen us run this. Or very many deceptive plays in general. Or very many plays that made me think, man, that was a WELL DESIGNED PLAY. So for all his rep as a "Stafford whisperer", Jim Bob has failed to demonstrate any level of innovation in our offense, and we seem to be as obvious as we were under Joe Lombardi's tutelage.

A quick analysis will show that in the Lions' 12 opening drives this season, 1 has resulted in a touchdown, 2 have resulted in FGs, and the rest have been punts or turnovers. The first drive is the one most scripted by the coaches, and usually planned out almost entirely prior to the game. When an opening drive fails so frequently, it's usually a result of coaching. Here are a few more facts about the opening drives:

• Average 5.7 offensive plays (#21 in NFL), not counting punts
• Average 23.8 yds, good for 27th in the NFL
• Average of 1.08 pts, counting a TD as 7 (tied for #21 in NFL)
• 3 of the Lions' opening drives have ended in a turnover, tied for 2nd worst in the NFL (not necessarily an indicator of bad coaching, but worth pointing out)
• The 1st play has been a running play on 6 out of 12 times
• The 2nd play has been a running play on 6 out of 12 times
• Not counting sacks, 31 out of 37 passing plays have been described as "short" passes (usually inside 5 yds from the line)

In short, the Lions are one of the worst offenses in the NFL on their opening drive, and the bulk of that is on coaching. They don't game plan very well. They start out VERY conservatively, and they are very predictable.

Part of the problem is the Lions are a terrible running team, but they use their running game as though they were the '72 Dolphins. Run out of passing formations. Pass out of running formations. Run a LOT more off tackle (Abdullah is fumble prone, yet they like to run him up the middle for some reason)...

In fact, check this out: the Lions are a TERRIBLE running team, but their best success is on the outside - 24th in NFL off the left end, 30th off LT, 30th up middle, 32nd off RT, 20th off left end... Yet 33% of their carries go up the middle, and only 36 % of their carries go off the ends, where they're most effective. It's weird how this coaching staff has constructed an offense that insists on playing to the Lions' weaknesses, all in the name of "balance". 

Look, by all means, run the ball 40% of the time. But stop running it like we're a power running team. And telegraphing the run by being predictable sort of defeats the purpose of attempting a balanced attack.

Pistons Report: First 20 games

A lot has been going on for me lately, and as a result I haven't posted in the last 5 months. Several major life changes happened within the space of a couple of months, and blogging wasn't a priority. Now, I could go back and cover all the major Detroit-based sports stuff from the past 5 months, but the thought of that wearies me. I'd rather talk about something I didn't see coming... THE PISTONS!!!

Now, the Pistons really only made 1 "major" move in the off-season and a couple of minor ones. The big move was trading Marcus Morris and a 2nd rounder for Avery Bradley. Bradley represented a noticeable upgrade over KCP (who the Pistons opted not to re-sign & ended up with the Lakers). Bradley is a better defender than KCP, who was the team's best defender, and a MUCH better offensive player. But losing Morris meant either Stanley Johnson would end up as the starting SF (a role he hadn't earned yet), or Tobias Harris would play SF and either Leuer or Ellenson would step in as the starting PF. It looked like a there wasn't a net gain, talent-wise, based on who would have to get Morris' minutes.

The other moves were to bring back Tolliver (bench), draft Kennard (bench - for now), and sign some back of the bench fillers - Eric Moreland and Langston Galloway. Some minor players were re-signed, some minor players were let go, but this was nothing franchise-altering. Yet here we are, 20 games in, and the Pistons sit at 14-6, in the #2 spot in the East, just below the Celtics. So what gives?

I had severely underestimated the impact that Andre Drummond's surgery to repair a deviated septum would have. He wasn't sleeping well due to that issue last year, which resulted in him showing up to games already lethargic, not to mention the impact it had on his breathing during games. But that's just part of the picture. His role in the offense changed, going back to pick-and-roll, doing more face-up attacks, and being a distributor - Drummond went from a career average of less than 1 assist per game to now nearly 4. But the greatest change in his game is in his free throw shooting (FINALLY). Drummond went from the worst FT shooter in the history of the league (.386% last year) to a capable one (.630% so far). 

This is the guy I wanted to see a couple of years ago. I had given up hope that the FT% would ever come around, but the offense and defense at least should get there. Well, he looks to have fixed his FT form and is fitting in with his new role in the offense better than ever. He's not afraid of getting fouled anymore, so Drummond is much more assertive on offense, instead of falling back on that fadeaway hook that went in about 25% of the time. He's also making a higher percentage of his put-backs, probably because he's less afraid of contact. Simply put, Drummond is back to being the best player on the team, and that's elevated by the fact that the team has the 4th best record in the NBA.

The 2nd best player is debatable. You could make a credible case for: 

• Tobias Harris - improving upon last year, which was already pretty good
• Reggie Jackson - healthy, shooting better than ever, running a solid offense AND playing credible defense
• Avery Bradly - currently having his best offensive year ever, best defender on the team, and people like Zach Lowe are saying things like "he's showing the rest of the team how to cut to the hoop"

It's worth noting that all of the 3 guys I named above are currently shooting better than ever from behind the arc. Bradley is at .441 3P% (.371 career), Jackson is at .390 3P% (.326 career), and Harris is astoundingly at .467 3P% (.346 career). The team was one of the worst in the NBA from behind the arc last year at .330 3P% (28th, in fact). At this moment they're shooting .391 3P%, good for 3rd in the NBA.

Also, the bench is surprisingly GOOD (ranked 8th, by one website). Ish Smith, coming off of a pretty good year (for him) last year, seems to be even better. Especially on the defensive end. Langston Galloway, Eric Moreland, and Anthony Tolliver - all brought on to fill out the bench - have contributed to make it a potent unit. Galloway is the Pistons' best player by net production, and he absolutely lights it up from behind the arc. Last year's team had one player shooting over .360 3P% (roughly league average). This year's team has 4 players shooting .400 3P% or better.

These improvements - massive improvements, in some cases - beg the question... are the Pistons a contender? As in, a TITLE contender?

Well, they do have a couple of marquee wins. They beat the Warriors on 10/29 by 8 pts IN GOLDEN STATE, which is no small feat. Monday's win over the Celtics IN BOSTON is another big deal. It's early, it's early, it's early... but the early indicators are yep, this team could contend. In the East, anything is possible.