Big Surprise, Pistons Drafting 12th

The Pistons entered the lottery with the 12th best odds of ending up with the 1st pick, and no surprise, they ended up with the 12th pick. The odds of landing anywhere between 1 and 3 were 2.5%, and there was a 3.9% chance that they'd move back . So I suppose we can be thankful that at least we're picking 12th and not 13th. But based on how the 2016-'17 season went, a couple of things became very clear :

1. The Pistons will not contend for a title with this roster
2. The Pistons have a lot of money invested in Drummond and Reggie Jackson, who will never be the best or 2nd best player on a contending team

Keith Langlois tweeted the last 7 #12 picks, and it's not particularly encouraging:

Last 7 No. 12 picks: Taurean Prince, Trey Lyles, Dario Saric, Steven Adams, Jeremy Lamb, Alec Burks, Xavier Henry

— Keith Langlois (@Keith_Langlois) May 17, 2017

Saric looks like he might be ok, and Adams is a decent player, but basically you're looking to get a role player at 12, MAYBE a starter, but probably not. If you're looking for encouragement though, maybe we should just look at good players taken in the first round with pick 12 or later. Let's start with 2014, since we can't really be sure how good anyone in the last couple of drafts will be...

2014: 12 - Saric, 13 - Zach Levine, 19 - Gary Harris, 23 - Rodney Hood, 25 - Clint Capela
2013: 12 - Stephen Adams, 13 - Kelly Olynyk, 15 - Giannis Antetokounmpo, 21 - Gorgui Deng, 22 - Mason Plumlee, 27 - Rudy Gobert
2012: 21 - Jared Sullinger (Jae Crowder and Draymond Green were taken in rd 2)
2011: 13 - Markieff Morris, 14 - Marcus Morris, 15 - Kawhi Leonard, 16 - Nicola Vucevic, 19 - Tobias Harris, 22 - Kenneth Faried, 24 - Reggie Jackson, 30 - Jimmy Butler
2010: 13 - Ed Davis, 14 - Patrick Patterson, 18 Eric Bledsoe, 23 - Trevor Booker

Of that group you've got Giannis, Gobert, Kawhi, and Butler who are all franchise players taken 12th or later in that 5-yr period. Adding Green, although he was a longshot at the time, makes it 1 guy per year. The trick is to get lucky/good enough to take him. So who is it in THIS draft?

Well, if I knew that I would be in a different profession than I am now (and making a lot more money). At some point before the draft, I'll go over who I'd like to see the Pistons take. But for now, let's look at what they could do to turn the franchise around...

TRADE!!!
To me, this is crucial. The Pistons HAVE to get shut of Andre Drummond's contract, and it would be preferable to dump Reggie's deal as well. Interestingly, there are two potential trade partners at the top of the draft who are in need of some interior help. Boston really needs to move Horford to the 4 and get a 5 who can protect the rim and rebound. Drummond fits the rebounding bill to a T, and while he isn't the best shot blocker, he's better than anyone the Celtics currently have, and I think he'll do better if he focuses more on that end of the floor. Boston is pretty loaded at the guard position, so they might find it preferable to trade the pick for a big who is ready to go NOW so they can make their run at a title.

The other option is LA, and I think they'd do this. The Lakers have the #2 pick, and they've made no secret that they're in love with Lonzo Ball (and the feeling is mutual). But LA just spent a #2 pick on another PG, Russell, 2 years ago so... why not trade him? I believe I recommended some version of THIS TRADE a little before the deadline, and it makes even more sense now. The Lakers get something for Russell, they offload Timofey Mozgov's ridiculous contract, and they get a GOOD center in return. From the Pistons' perspective, they add a young PG on the rise, Ingram was the #2 pick last year, and the Pistons should also get a pick or two as well (the Lakers own Houston's 1st this year, pick #28, but none next year).

BOOM or BUST Candidates
If the Pistons can't swing a trade, they could play it safe and draft a player who fits their needs and is next up on their draft board (Chad Ford has them taking Kennard, which would be the epitome of this strategy). The other possibility is to go for a high-risk/high-reward candidate that could be that diamond-in-the-rough franchise guy, like Kawhi, Giannis, Gobert, Butler, and Green all were. What you need is a player who looks like he could be really good, but has some question marks that cause him to drop (think Thon Maker in last year's draft, only he didn't drop enough).

Harry Giles PF/C, Duke: Giles is actually the guy on the board at #12 (per the ESPN100 rankings), but he's also a big boom-or-bust candidate. He's had a couple of ACL injuries and wasn't 100% when he played with Duke last year, so we didn't get a real good look at him. Based on his DraftExpress scouting report, he has similar strengths and weaknesses to Drummond, except he's a little better from the stripe and he needs to add muscle. If he could develop a jumper and become a better passer, he could be an improvement over Drummond, but cheaper.

Justin Jackson SF, UNC: Jackson will be a good player. Or at least an okay player. In that respect, he's not that risky. I look at him in much the same way that I saw Denzel Valentine last year. Now Valentine was a much more established shooter and passer than Jackson is, but both players were old for their draft class and very limited athletes. Jackson still isn't an elite shooter, but his shot has already improved significantly and could continue to do so.

OG Anunoby SF, Indiana: If the Pistons make this pick, they're likely tanking the 2017-'18 season because Anunoby is expected to miss the entire year recovering from an ACL tear. If he comes back healthy with the same bounce (or near enough), he could be a steal at 12. His shot is quite uneven, but he has shown the ability to hit 3s at a high rate (although the FT% concerns me). He has the potential to be a top defender in the league.

Hamidou Diallo SG, Kentucky*: This would be a true boom-or-bust move. While Diallo officially is coming from Kentucky, he never actually played a game for them. He stayed in HS for a graduate year, then did a spring semester with UK and practiced with the team but never played. He's an other-worldly athlete, with the top vertical in the combine and some of the better sprint & agility times as well. The problem - his shooting SUCKS. Dwyane Wade was able to be a pretty good SG without ever developing much of a 3pt shot, but this is a different league than the one Wade entered 14 years ago. Diallo shot a .176 3P% last year at Putnam Science Academy. He'll need to double that, if he's going to be an effective scorer in the NBA. Also, Diallo would be a huge reach at #12 for the Pistons.

Caleb Swanigan PF, Purdue: Speaking of a huge reach, here's the Draymond Green of this draft. Swanigan isn't an elite athlete and he'll need to continue to improve his conditioning, but he did make some strides after a poor combine showing last year. He's a phenomenal rebounder, defender, he's good with his back to the basket, and he featured a .447 3P% that wasn't there last year. He might not even get picked in round 1, but he's a guy that has the potential to be one of the 5 best players of his draft class.

Jordan Bell - the PF out of Oregon - is another guy I like a lot, but I don't see him as a potential "boom" candidate. I just like his skill set. He blocks, rebounds, has an ok shot, and he can get up & down the court. He'd be an ideal small-ball 5, or somebody to play next to Ellenson and add a rim protecting presence. If we do the trade with LA and end up with the 28th pick as well as our own 12th, we could go with either him or Swanigan there and it wouldn't be a huge reach.

As far as the 2nd round goes, I'd LOVE to get Frank Mason, the PG out of Kansas. He was Kansas's best scorer, and he can really shoot (.490/.471/.794 shooting %s). Any small guard will get Isaiah Thomas/Nate Robinson comparisons, but they might actually be apt in this case. I think he ends up as a quality backup PG, and he has the potential to be a starter on a good team.