Stan Van Gundy on 97.1 The Ticket

Stan Van Gundy is without question one of the best interviews in all of the current coaches in professional sports. At least out of the big 4 (football, basketball, baseball, and hockey). He's intelligent, honest, and not afraid to say things. Most coaches don't say things. They spend a lot of time talking, but they obscure, mislead, or flat out refuse to answer some pretty straightforward questions. For example, Lions coach Jim Caldwell was weirdly evasive about DeAndre Levy's status all year, treating his meniscus surgery like it was the nuclear launch codes. SVG is NOT like Caldwell.

Additionally, Mike Valenti can be pretty combative. He doesn't pull punches, he holds everybody to a pretty high standard, and he asks questions that sound like a critique on the way out of his mouth. The Lions dropped 97.1 as their broadcast home because The Ticket refused to fire Valenti based on his on-air criticisms of the team. That should give you an idea of the environment SVG was walking into when he agreed to an in-studio interview on The Valenti Show.

It was fascinating radio, and well worth a listen if you have time. If you don't, here are some highlights:

• 4:51 - Talking about Drummond's post-up game. The post-up game took a step back this year, and SVG thinks that's due to Andre being afraid of getting fouled. Drummond's a beast in the post in practice, but it doesn't translate in games because they just put him on the line.
• 8:57 - Valenti asks about off-season moves. Based on Stan's response, they are actively looking to make a trade, but they're having problems finding a partner. The approximate quote is "I like our core of guys, but no one is untouchable." 
• 11:30 - Stan's approve vs. Sam Hinkie's "Process". SVG disagrees with the viability of The Process as a multi-year tanking strategy. He makes great points that a ton of cap space doesn't do the Pistons much good because we aren't a free agent "destination", and that your building strategy has to fit with what the fans & ownership are prepared to face.

I've never been a fan of The Process, and I think the Sixers fans are nuts for lionizing it as much as they have, considering it hasn't won them anything yet (they essentially raised a banner to losing earlier this month). But I do think limited scale tanking can be effective and even necessary. For example, when Reggie Jackson went down with tendinitis, the Pistons' season was basically over. It wasn't super obvious until towards the end of January, but the right move would've been to shut Reggie down for the rest of the season, try to dump somebody at the deadline for picks or players on their rookie deal (KCP, Drummond, or Tobias Harris would've been the best bets), and tank for the remaining third of the season.

A one year tanking strategy can work too, and Stan Van Gundy did acknowledge that it has worked in the past. I totally disagreed with his stance that the team/fan-base wouldn't have supported a teardown when he came on as GM/Head Coach. Yes, the Pistons had been losing since 2009, but they never bottomed out. They had 5 straight seasons of 25-30 wins, which was never bad enough to net a top 3 pick. Based on Stan's first season of 32 wins, we could've easily done a teardown and built from the ground up, instead of trying to build a contender on a crumbling foundation. Had Stan cleaned house, Gores might not have been thrilled, but I think most of the fans would've accepted it.

Every year from 2009 on, Dumars was trying to make the playoffs, which was like charging the enemy lines with a gun full of blanks.

Big Surprise, Pistons Drafting 12th

The Pistons entered the lottery with the 12th best odds of ending up with the 1st pick, and no surprise, they ended up with the 12th pick. The odds of landing anywhere between 1 and 3 were 2.5%, and there was a 3.9% chance that they'd move back . So I suppose we can be thankful that at least we're picking 12th and not 13th. But based on how the 2016-'17 season went, a couple of things became very clear :

1. The Pistons will not contend for a title with this roster
2. The Pistons have a lot of money invested in Drummond and Reggie Jackson, who will never be the best or 2nd best player on a contending team

Keith Langlois tweeted the last 7 #12 picks, and it's not particularly encouraging:

Last 7 No. 12 picks: Taurean Prince, Trey Lyles, Dario Saric, Steven Adams, Jeremy Lamb, Alec Burks, Xavier Henry

— Keith Langlois (@Keith_Langlois) May 17, 2017

Saric looks like he might be ok, and Adams is a decent player, but basically you're looking to get a role player at 12, MAYBE a starter, but probably not. If you're looking for encouragement though, maybe we should just look at good players taken in the first round with pick 12 or later. Let's start with 2014, since we can't really be sure how good anyone in the last couple of drafts will be...

2014: 12 - Saric, 13 - Zach Levine, 19 - Gary Harris, 23 - Rodney Hood, 25 - Clint Capela
2013: 12 - Stephen Adams, 13 - Kelly Olynyk, 15 - Giannis Antetokounmpo, 21 - Gorgui Deng, 22 - Mason Plumlee, 27 - Rudy Gobert
2012: 21 - Jared Sullinger (Jae Crowder and Draymond Green were taken in rd 2)
2011: 13 - Markieff Morris, 14 - Marcus Morris, 15 - Kawhi Leonard, 16 - Nicola Vucevic, 19 - Tobias Harris, 22 - Kenneth Faried, 24 - Reggie Jackson, 30 - Jimmy Butler
2010: 13 - Ed Davis, 14 - Patrick Patterson, 18 Eric Bledsoe, 23 - Trevor Booker

Of that group you've got Giannis, Gobert, Kawhi, and Butler who are all franchise players taken 12th or later in that 5-yr period. Adding Green, although he was a longshot at the time, makes it 1 guy per year. The trick is to get lucky/good enough to take him. So who is it in THIS draft?

Well, if I knew that I would be in a different profession than I am now (and making a lot more money). At some point before the draft, I'll go over who I'd like to see the Pistons take. But for now, let's look at what they could do to turn the franchise around...

TRADE!!!
To me, this is crucial. The Pistons HAVE to get shut of Andre Drummond's contract, and it would be preferable to dump Reggie's deal as well. Interestingly, there are two potential trade partners at the top of the draft who are in need of some interior help. Boston really needs to move Horford to the 4 and get a 5 who can protect the rim and rebound. Drummond fits the rebounding bill to a T, and while he isn't the best shot blocker, he's better than anyone the Celtics currently have, and I think he'll do better if he focuses more on that end of the floor. Boston is pretty loaded at the guard position, so they might find it preferable to trade the pick for a big who is ready to go NOW so they can make their run at a title.

The other option is LA, and I think they'd do this. The Lakers have the #2 pick, and they've made no secret that they're in love with Lonzo Ball (and the feeling is mutual). But LA just spent a #2 pick on another PG, Russell, 2 years ago so... why not trade him? I believe I recommended some version of THIS TRADE a little before the deadline, and it makes even more sense now. The Lakers get something for Russell, they offload Timofey Mozgov's ridiculous contract, and they get a GOOD center in return. From the Pistons' perspective, they add a young PG on the rise, Ingram was the #2 pick last year, and the Pistons should also get a pick or two as well (the Lakers own Houston's 1st this year, pick #28, but none next year).

BOOM or BUST Candidates
If the Pistons can't swing a trade, they could play it safe and draft a player who fits their needs and is next up on their draft board (Chad Ford has them taking Kennard, which would be the epitome of this strategy). The other possibility is to go for a high-risk/high-reward candidate that could be that diamond-in-the-rough franchise guy, like Kawhi, Giannis, Gobert, Butler, and Green all were. What you need is a player who looks like he could be really good, but has some question marks that cause him to drop (think Thon Maker in last year's draft, only he didn't drop enough).

Harry Giles PF/C, Duke: Giles is actually the guy on the board at #12 (per the ESPN100 rankings), but he's also a big boom-or-bust candidate. He's had a couple of ACL injuries and wasn't 100% when he played with Duke last year, so we didn't get a real good look at him. Based on his DraftExpress scouting report, he has similar strengths and weaknesses to Drummond, except he's a little better from the stripe and he needs to add muscle. If he could develop a jumper and become a better passer, he could be an improvement over Drummond, but cheaper.

Justin Jackson SF, UNC: Jackson will be a good player. Or at least an okay player. In that respect, he's not that risky. I look at him in much the same way that I saw Denzel Valentine last year. Now Valentine was a much more established shooter and passer than Jackson is, but both players were old for their draft class and very limited athletes. Jackson still isn't an elite shooter, but his shot has already improved significantly and could continue to do so.

OG Anunoby SF, Indiana: If the Pistons make this pick, they're likely tanking the 2017-'18 season because Anunoby is expected to miss the entire year recovering from an ACL tear. If he comes back healthy with the same bounce (or near enough), he could be a steal at 12. His shot is quite uneven, but he has shown the ability to hit 3s at a high rate (although the FT% concerns me). He has the potential to be a top defender in the league.

Hamidou Diallo SG, Kentucky*: This would be a true boom-or-bust move. While Diallo officially is coming from Kentucky, he never actually played a game for them. He stayed in HS for a graduate year, then did a spring semester with UK and practiced with the team but never played. He's an other-worldly athlete, with the top vertical in the combine and some of the better sprint & agility times as well. The problem - his shooting SUCKS. Dwyane Wade was able to be a pretty good SG without ever developing much of a 3pt shot, but this is a different league than the one Wade entered 14 years ago. Diallo shot a .176 3P% last year at Putnam Science Academy. He'll need to double that, if he's going to be an effective scorer in the NBA. Also, Diallo would be a huge reach at #12 for the Pistons.

Caleb Swanigan PF, Purdue: Speaking of a huge reach, here's the Draymond Green of this draft. Swanigan isn't an elite athlete and he'll need to continue to improve his conditioning, but he did make some strides after a poor combine showing last year. He's a phenomenal rebounder, defender, he's good with his back to the basket, and he featured a .447 3P% that wasn't there last year. He might not even get picked in round 1, but he's a guy that has the potential to be one of the 5 best players of his draft class.

Jordan Bell - the PF out of Oregon - is another guy I like a lot, but I don't see him as a potential "boom" candidate. I just like his skill set. He blocks, rebounds, has an ok shot, and he can get up & down the court. He'd be an ideal small-ball 5, or somebody to play next to Ellenson and add a rim protecting presence. If we do the trade with LA and end up with the 28th pick as well as our own 12th, we could go with either him or Swanigan there and it wouldn't be a huge reach.

As far as the 2nd round goes, I'd LOVE to get Frank Mason, the PG out of Kansas. He was Kansas's best scorer, and he can really shoot (.490/.471/.794 shooting %s). Any small guard will get Isaiah Thomas/Nate Robinson comparisons, but they might actually be apt in this case. I think he ends up as a quality backup PG, and he has the potential to be a starter on a good team.

Lions Draft Grade: C+

The 2017 NFL Draft is in the books, and I have to say, while I don't see any of the glaring mistakes you might see in a Mayhew or Millen draft, I don't see much to get excited about either. Davis was a good pick I thought, but Foster was available at the time and will likely be a better player. Maybe. We missed out on Mixon and then took a CB that seems to have pretty limited upside. We traded back in round 3 and missed on some guys I thought could've been day 1 starters...

I haven't scouted these players personally, I'm relying on their measurables, their game tape & stats, and what others have written about them. So any draft critique has to come with this caveat - the Lions front office knows these players WAY better than I do. That said, I don't need to have personal scouting knowledge of every player to question draft strategy. Also, if questions about a player's abilities are being asked by writers who DO have firsthand scouting knowledge, it's legit for me to bring those up as well.

I already covered the Jarrad Davis pick, so I won't go in depth here. It did remind me a little of the 2010 Draft though, when we took Suh over McCoy. If you hop in the wayback machine, the debate at the time of the 2010 draft was whether Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy would be the better prospect at DT. It was generally accepted that Suh was the better player, but McCoy was supposed to be a better pass rushing DT and maybe less of a headache. When Suh eventually left the Lions in free agency for more money, I thought at the time that while he was the better player, the Lions would have been better off had they drafted McCoy instead. So with that in mind, I'm ok with the Davis pick over Foster. Davis might be not quite as good a player as Foster (on the other hand, he might turn out better), but I think he'll be less of a headache.

With that out of the way, let's look at the rest of the Lions' draft. You should be able to spot a common theme in my evaluations. 

Round 2, pick #53
Teez Tabor - CB, Florida
6'1", 199 lbs, 4.62 40-yd dash

That 40-time is glacially slow for a 2nd round corner, but it's possible that a nagging hamstring injury slowed him down a little. Even assuming the best, he's still a slower CB and would get burned if we put him on the island outside. Tabor is pretty good in coverage though, and has a lot of INTs and pass breakups to show for it. He's projected as a zone CB, which is pretty useful in our defense, but he's not a great tackler. Here's what I thought when we took Tabor - "WHY DIDN'T WE TAKE JOURDAN LEWIS???" I know Lewis has a domestic case and that's definitely a concern, but Lewis could be an outside corner. He's got elite speed and coverage ability. He's a little smaller, but he's a much better player than Tabor. And while Tabor doesn't currently have a case, he's got history (suspensions for failed drug tests and an altercation with a teammate). I would love to have gotten  either Mixon or DeMarcus Walker here, but they had just been picked. It was weird to me to see Quinn go for a guy who's probably never going to be higher than a #3 CB.

Round 3, pick #96 (traded back with NE)
Kenny Golladay - WR, Northern Illinois
6'4",  218 lbs, 4.50 40-yd dash

Golladay is a big dude who isn't slow, but he isn't going to run away from anyone either (in the video from the OSU game, he's pretty well covered most of the time). A problem the Lions receivers had last year was getting separation, and I don't see how this guy will fix that. So while WR was a need, I'm against picking a WR here, and I'm not crazy about trading back either. The trade gave us New England's 4th & 6th round picks, which is a decent haul for moving back 11 picks in round 3. But look at who was available that we missed out on - RB Kareem Hunt, RB D'Onta Foreman, CB Jourdan Lewis (who we probably weren't drafting after taking a CB in round 2, but still), S John Johnson, and DT Montravius Adams. We may be fine with Golladay, but I think we could've done better if we'd stayed put and gotten one of the 2 RBs or a defensive player.

Round 4, pick #124 (from NE)
Jalen Reeves-Maybin - LB, Tennessee
6'0", 230 lbs, 4.66 40-yd dash

I've got no issues with this one. LB was still a need, even after taking Davis in round 1. He's also our 2nd "Jalen", since Teez Tabor's first name is Jalen. Anyway, JRM missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, but the year before was a pretty good one. He's fast, can cover, and he's a good tackler. He needs to add about 10 lbs of muscle and probably won't start right away, but I like the pick.

Round 4, pick #128
Michael Roberts - TE, Toledo
6'4", 270 lbs, 4.86 40-yd dash

This. This is how you draft a tight end. I love everything about this pick - who we got, the potential of the player, the skill set he already has, and especially WHERE we got him. This is why you don't spend your top pick on a TE. The guy can catch, he's big, and he projects as a quality blocking TE in the NFL. He isn't going to run away from anybody, but his size is perfect for red zone and short yardage situations. He'll go up and get it for you. Jake Butt was available, but he's supposed to miss all of the upcoming season with his ACL injury. I have no issues with picking Roberts over Jake Butt here.

Round 5, pick #165
Jamal Agnew - CB, San Diego
5'10", 185 lbs, 4.32 40-yd dash

Not a bad 5th round pick. He's got elite speed and can return punts, so that may be where he starts out. He'll need to add some muscle to play slot corner.

Round 6, pick #205
Jeremiah Ledbetter - DE, Arkansas
6'3", 280 lbs, 4.84 40-yd dash

Not especially quick or disruptive in the passing game, getting only 5.5 sacks last year and 7.5 TFL. I wish they'd addressed the edge rush earlier in the draft, although it's not like the other picks were taken in spite of need. DeMarcus Walker would've been a great pick in rd 2, but he went 2 picks ahead of the Lions. We passed on a 6'7" DE from Villanova, who looks promising, and Jordan Willis out of K State probably would have started for us out of the gate (Teez Tabor will be the #3 CB at best). So, Ledbetter isn't a bad pick for the 6th round, but I wish we'd addressed the edge rush earlier.

Round 6, pick #215 (from NE)
Brad Kaaya - QB, Miami
6'4", 214 lbs, 4.90 40-yd dash

At this point in the draft, you're looking for good players regardless of need. Did we NEED a QB? No, we're presumably reupping with Stafford and Ruddock is now our #2. But Kaaya, while limited, was a steal here and should develop into a quality backup. These are the types of guys you can develop and then trade if the opportunity presents itself.

Round 7, pick #250
Pat O'Connor - DE, Eastern Michigan
6'4", 277 lbs, 4.81 40-yd dash

Decent 7th rounder, what can I say? I know next to nothing about the guy. His stats are ok, not great, he has short arms and isn't super strong or athletic... Fine I guess?

And here's your UDFA tracker from Pride of Detroit, in case you're a total degenerate, like myself.

Overall, I can't say I know enough about these players to excoriate Quinn for this draft, nor can I praise his drafting acumen. Early on in the draft I thought he passed on some players with higher upside (in a couple cases, MUCH higher), but they would have come with some headaches. I'm okay with the 1st round pick, less than thrilled with the 2nd & 3rd round moves, I love what he did in round 4, and I'm fine with rounds 5-7.

If you're comparing it to the 2016 draft, they're similar in that he addressed needs without overreaching, but I don't think he drafted as many potential starters as he did last year.  I'd guess only 2 of the 6 defensive players we drafted will be full-time starters, and offensively I'd say the TE has really the only shot. I'd give this draft a C+. Quinn addressed needs, but I don't think he took enough risks. At some point, he'll need to do that.